Next Up, Sort Of: The Arizona Diamondbacks

I could've sworn the series with the Snakes started tonight. Out for dinner last night, got home, fired up the AtBat app, and I sure was surprised to see the Pirates game there. So this is a preview of the next two games, I guess.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Diamondbacks are 16-12 over the past 30 days, resulting in a .571 winning percentage that is exactly in the middle of the 15-team National League. They've scored 4.6 runs per game, the sixth most, and given up 3.25 runs per game, the second fewest. That kind of run differential typically results in a record of 18-10 or 19-11 over 28 games. In fact, Arizona has the best run differential in the league over the last 30 days.

What's Going Right? Arizona's starting pitchers have a 3.22 ERA over the last 30 days, trailing only the Mets and Cardinals, and the relievers' 3.08 ERA is sixth best. The starters have induced grounders on 51% of batted balls, second most in the league, and have stranded 82% of baserunners, a figure that is both remarkably high and unlikely to persist. They've gotten batters to swing at 35% of pitches outside the strike zone, the highest percentage in the league over the last 30 days. The bullpen's also generated a lot of grounders, the second-highest percentage in the league.

The offense has been pretty good, too. Over the past 30 days, Diamondbacks hitters have the fourth highest batting average (.273), third highest on base percentage (.331), and sixth highest slugging percentage (.422). The club's tied with the Cubs for third in the league in stolen bases, with 21 over the period, with a good 75% success rate.

What's Going Wrong? The batters have struck out a lot (23% of plate appearances, fourth most in the league) and hit only 23 homers (fourth lowest) over the past 30 days. They lead the league in percentage of batted balls hit hard, but those hard-hit balls are resulting more in singles (they're first in the league over the past 30 days), doubles (fifth), and triples (first) than round trippers. 

Who's Hot? The Diamondbacks have two of the hottest hitters in baseball: Left fielder David Peralta has a .398/.440/.590 slash line with 23 RBI over the past 30 days, and center fielder A.J. Pollock's hitting .362/.425/.532 with 21 runs scored and ten stolen bases. Perennial All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt's at .319/.436/.457. Catcher Wellington Castillo's batting only .257 over the past 30 days but he's launched eight homers. Closer Brad Ziegler is seven-for-seven in saves with a 3.18 ERA over the past 30 days, and rookie lefty reliever Andrew Chafin has allowed five hits, two unintentional walks, and no runs over his last 13 games.

Who's Not? Tonight and tomorrow, the Pirates will face the two Arizona starters with the worst ERAs over the past 30 days: Chase Anderson (3.75) and Robbie Ray (5.33). Then again, last night's winning pitcher, Jeremy Hellickson, had a 3.72 ERA in the 30 days leading into the game, and he allowed just one run over 5.1 innings to get the win. Hard-luck reliever Daniel Hudson, who missed pitched in only 12 games over the past three years due to injuries, has allowed a 6.00 ERA and three homers over his last twelve appearances. 

The middle infield has been a Diamondbacks weakness all year. Rookie shortstop Nick Ahmed's a slick fielder but he's batting just .173/.198/.247 over the past 30 days. The Diamondbacks have two pitchers with a higher OPS this year than Ahmed's .445 over the past 30 days: Hellickson (.485) and Josh Collmenter (.486). Second baseman Chris Owings has also been bad--.235/.270/.341--and those numbers represent an improvement over his .231/.262/.329 prior to the last 30 days.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates swept three in Arizona back in April. That won't happen in this series. They start lefties Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ the next two nights, and the Diamondbacks this year are worse against left-handed starters (12-15) than righties (46-44). On the other hand, they've almost exactly the same against both types of pitchers (.735 OPS against righties, .732 against lefties). With the hard-charging Cubs (15-2 in their last 17 games, now two games behind the Pirates for the first wild card) starting a two-game series at home against the disappointing Tigers, the Pirates probably need to at least split the last two games before opening a four-game series at home against the Giants.

The Week That Was: National League West

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

This project's a lot of work. No division more so than this one. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Traded for: 2B-SS Raymel Flores, SP Rubby De La Rosa, RP Zack Godley, 2B/SS Domingo Leyba, SP Jeferson Mejia, SP Robbie Ray, SP Allen Webster

Traded away: SS Didi Gregorius, SP Wade Miley, C Miguel Montero

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: At 64-98, the Diamondbacks were the worst team in baseball in 2014. These moves are recognition of that. The team traded three established players for a bunch of prospects. It won't help them much this year, but it might in the coming years.

2016+ Impact: De La Rosa was supposedly one of the centerpieces of the big salary dump in 2012 in which the Red Sox sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers, but he hasn't done much with the Red Sox (4-8, 4.43 ERA in 18 starts in 2014). Godley and Mejia come from the Cubs' deep farm system. They both pitched at Class A and Rookie ball last year, so they're not close. Ditto Leyba, who's just 19. Ray, like De La Rosa, was a centerpiece of a notable trade--the one last winter that sent pitcher Dough Fister to Nationals--who's now being traded again. He was the Tigers' No. 3 prospect entering the season according to ESPN's Keith Law, but he posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games for Detroit and a 4.22 ERA at AAA Indianapolis (the league average was 4.04). Webster was ranked 88 by Baseball America and 46 by MLB.com before last season, and he posted good numbers at AAA Pawtucket (3.10 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 122 innings) and not so good numbers in Boston (5.03 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 59 innings). For these moves to work for the Diamondbacks over the long term, somebody's going to have to pan out, because the three players Arizona traded away aren't at risk of leaving via free agency: Gregorius won't be eligible until 2010, Miley and Montero until 2018.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Traded for: RP Jairo Diaz

Traded away: 2B/SS Josh Rutledge

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This could be a nice deal for the Rockies. Diaz is a converted catcher who was pretty strong at A and AA (3.48 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 64.2 innings over 56 games) and a brief trial in Anaheim (four hits, eight strikeouts, three walks in 5.2 innings in five games). Rutledge has been below-average at the plate in three seasons of part-time play in Colorado. His role in 2015 was likely to hang around until Troy Tulowitzki gets hurt, and Colorado always has a need for arms.

2016+ Impact: As with 2015, I think this trade makes the Rockies a slightly better team.


LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Traded for (deep breath): C-IF Austin Barnes, SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, RP Chris Hatcher, OF Chris Heisey, IF-OF Enrique Hernandez, 2B Howie Kendrick, SP Joe Wieland
Traded away (another deep breath): C Tim Federowicz, 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, OF Matt Kemp, SP Matt Magill, IF Miguel Rojas
Free agents signed: SP Brandon McCarthy

2015 Impact: Hacking through all of this...the key additions here are Grandal, Kendrick, and McCarthy; the key subtractions are Gordon, Haren, and Kemp. A lot of Dodger fans are pretty upset about these moves, but as I've written, I don't think the loss of Kemp is that traumatic, and I'm not a big Dee Gordon fan. Haren wasn't all that good last year, and is making noises about retiring rather than reporting to the Marlins. Grandal's an underrated catcher, and Dodgers catchers were pretty atrocious last year (.181 batting average, .283 on base percentage, .261 slugging percentage--all last in the league). McCarthy split last season between the Diamondbacks, for whom he was pretty bad (3-10, 5.01 ERA) and the Yankees, for whom he was pretty good (7-5, 2.89 ERA). His underlying peripherals at both stops (strikeout, walk, and home run rate) point to mid-3-range ERA. And while he has a deserved reputation for being injury-prone, there were only 32 pitchers in the majors who topped his 200 innings pitched last year. Among the other players acquired, Hatcher had a strong year in the Marlins bullpen and joins a team with a real need for a bridge to closer Kenley Jansen. I'm willing to concede that maybe these moves in aggregate make the Dodgers a little weaker next year, due largely to Kemp's bat, but I'm leaning more toward them being a push and possibly a plus.

2016+ Impact: Kendrick could turn out to be rental (he's eligible for free agency in 2016) but several of the youngsters the Dodgers picked up could be contributors in the future. Eflin was first round draft pick two years ago, Hernandez can play all over the field, and Barnes plays catcher, second, and third. Wieland had a strong if shortened year coming back from Tommy John surgery. All could help the Dodgers, possibly in 2015, more likely in 2016 and beyond.

Comic relief: The Dodgers moves came so fast and furious that at one point they traded for left-handed pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, only to trade him away less than two hours later. That prompted this tweet from Heaney:

Well, @Dodgers we had a good run! Great to be a part of such a storied franchise. #thanksforthememories
— Andrew Heaney (@Heandog8) December 11, 2014

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Traded for: C Tim Federowicz, OF Matt Kemp
Traded away: SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, SP Joe Wieland
Free agents signed: SS Clint Barmes

2015 Impact: Well, if I liked this trade for the Dodgers, I suppose I don't like it for the Padres. Assuming Kemp's healthy and not playing center, though, this should make San Diego better in 2015. Barmes is a good glove/no bat guy who'll be 36 next season and was signed to a one-year contract (with a team option for 2016). He'll back up Alexi Amarista, a similarly bad hitter who could stand to learn some defensive pointers from his new teammate.

2016+ Impact: This is where I have reservations. The Padres gave up an OK catcher and a couple good pitching prospects for Matt Kemp's decline phase. Also, I should note that while Dodgers Stadium boosts homers for right-handed hitters, San Diego's Petco Park doesn't, so Kemp's superficial power numbers are likely to decline.


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Thanks, Giants. I needed a breather.