Next Up: The San Diego Padres

The Pirates host three games against the San Diego Padres before winding up play before the All-Star break with four games against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. If it seems as if the Pirates just played the Padres yet haven't played their intra-division rival Cardinals since the start of the season, well, that's correct. The Pirates split four games in San Diego on May 28-31 and haven't seen the Cards since going 2-4 against St. Louis in two series spread over the first ten days of May.

How Are They Doing Lately? I'm going to repeat what I said in my preview for the May series, since almost nothing's changed: The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 39-45, in fourth place, 7.5 games behind the Dodgers, 3.5 behind the Giants, and 2 behind the Diamondbacks. They trail the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 11-17, the third-worst record in the league. They've scored 3.3 runs per game, fourth fewest in the league over the 30 days, and given up 4.8 per game, the third most.

Since the clubs met in May, the Padres let their manager, Bud Black, go. Pat Murphy holds the title of interim manager.

What's Going Right? Um...well...their offense is sixth in the league in walks and home runs. It's pretty hard to find things to say positive about the pitching staff: They've allowed 34% of baserunners to score, the most in the league, and that's such a high percentage that it's bound to come down.

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been pretty nonexistent over the last 30 days. They're last in the league in batting at .219 and on-base percentage at .278, and they're third to last in slugging at .357. The starters have an ERA of 4.33 and the relievers 3.45 over the last 30 days, each fifth worst in the league. 

Who's Hot? Only two Padres starters have ERAs below 5 over the past 30 days; the Pirates will face one, Tyson Ross (3.38), who hasn't allowed a home run since April. Closer Kimbrel's recovered from a shaky start and has a 0.82 ERA, 9-for-9 in saves, with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings of late. The team's other three primary relievers--Joaquin Benoit, Shawn Kelly, and Brandon Maurer--have been almost as good, with a combined 1.60 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over the past 30 days. As for the offense, put it this way: Clint Barmes is the only Padres batter over the last 30 days with a batting average over .285 and a slugging percentage above .500--both OK but not great numbers--is Clint Barmes. Yes, Pirates fans, Clint Barmes, the no-hit, good-glove shortstop who lost his job last year to Jordy Mercer. When your best hitter's a 36 year old middle infielder with a .247 career batting average, that's a team in a slump. 

Who's Not? Well, let's go through that list of big acquisitions. Over the past 30 days, Upton's batting .186 with two homers and a .278 slugging percentage. Myers is on the disabled list. Kemp is batting .231. Norris is batting .163. Middlebrooks is batting .159. Shields has a 5.59 ERA. I could go on.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are a better team than the Padres, but the Padres aren't as bad as they've been lately. At some point, the hitters will start hitting again and the starters will pitch to form. For now, San Diego's top relievers make jumping to the first lead imperative.

Next Up: The San Diego Padres

Sorry, a day late. But honestly, are you awake for these west coast games that don't start until 10 PM Eastern time? I had a job for which I traveled a lot, and trips to the west coast could be brutal. Sometimes I boarded a plane in the east around 6 AM (work backwards to figure out when I had to wake up), land on the west coast at 1:30 PM or so Pacific time, go to a couple meetings, and then have a dinner that didn't start until about 7 PM Pacific, by which time I'd been awake (other than any sleep time on the plane) for like 19 straight hours or so.

The Pirates faced something similar. They had an afternoon game at PNC Park on Wednesday followed by a night game in San Diego on Thursday. Granted, they flew on a charter flight (I almost always had to change planes somewhere) and they stay at really nice hotels. Still, let's think about the games in terms of the Eastern time zone. It was a 12:35 PM start on Wednesday, so let's assume the players had to get to the ballpark by about 9:00 AM. That means they probably got their wake-up call no later than 7:00 or 7:30. The game took 2:38, so they shower, change, get on the bus and let's say the plane is wheels up at 4:30 PM. There aren't any direct flights from Pittsburgh to San Diego, but a direct to Los Angeles takes 5:13. So let's assume the Pirates' charter, barring any air traffic control delays, is on the ground in San Diego by 9:30-10:00 PM. (Flight times for domestic carriers are always inflated, so that delays don't mess with the airline's on-time performance.) That has them in their rooms, bags unpacked, by 10:00-10:30. (The airport in San Diego is very conveniently located, near downtown.) But that's only 7:00-7:30 PM Pacific, and they haven't had a real meal, so they grab dinner, and even if it's room service, they're not in bed until midnight or so our time. The game Thursday started at 7:05 PM, so the players probably started arriving at Petco Park, I don't know, 1:00 or 2:00? But hang on--they landed Wednesday on East Coast time. How many of them woke up at 5:00 AM Thursday (8:00 AM Eastern), with the first pitch over 14 hours away? I listened to the radio broadcast of the game Wednesday, and radio commentator Steve Blass remarked that the first day of a West Coast trip always felt two days long. I don't have time to dig it up right now, but I'm pretty sure that teams traveling east-to-west with games on consecutive days have a lower-than-expected won-lost record in the first game in the Pacific time zone. Which, of course, the Pirates didn't, winning 11-5. 

Anyway, there are three more games with the Padres, followed by three in San Francisco, so let's look more closely at San Diego. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 23-26, in third place, 6.5 games behind the Dodgers and 6.0 behind the Giants. They trail the Giants, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, and Braves in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 12-15, tied with the Brewers and the Mets for the fifth-worst record in the league.

What's Going Right? Not a whole lot of late. The bullpen's been okay, with a seventh-best-in-the-league 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days, and they're one of only three teams with only one blown save over that period. But they're tied for the seventh-fewest saves and the fifth-fewest holds because they haven't been handed leads.

What's Going Wrong? They've gotten inconsistent starting pitching (4.68 ERA, third-highest in the league) and their offense has the third-lowest batting average (.233), second-lowest on-base percentage (.293), and second-lowest slugging percentage (.340). Bad starting pitching and no offense isn't a formula for success. The Padres' defense is awful; depending on the methodology, either the Padres or the Phillies are the worst-fielding team in the league, and it's not close. 

Who's Hot? While Kimbrel's had a tough go of it of late, the team's other three top relievers by innings pitched over the past 30 days, Brandon Mauer, Kevin Quackenbush, and Dale Thayer, have combined for a 2.11 ERA over 38.1 innings. Shields has a 4-0 record over the past 30 days, but that's because the offense has given him a lot of run support, as his ERA over the stretch is 4.60. By contrast, the offense has scored for starters Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, who are a combined 2-6 over the past 30 days despite ERAs of 3.23 and 3.19, respectively. On offense, Upton (.320/.398/.540 slash line over the past 30 days) has lived up to the hype, and Myers (.300/.404/.500) has been good too. Unfortunately, Myers is on the disabled list, though his understudy, Will Venable (.323/.405/.431) has performed well. 

Who's Not? Over the past 30 days, Kimbrel has a 7.45 ERA, but that shrinks to 3.24 without two terrible outings against Houston (three runs in a third of an inning) and Arizona (two runs in an inning). That 3.24 ERA is still a far cry from his career total of 1.43 entering the season, but he's struck out 16 over the past 9.2 innings, so he hasn't fallen off a cliff. After Shields, Cashner, and Ross, the rotation's been a mess, with a combined 6.48 ERA. Kemp's been terrible (.181/.216/.219 slash line over the past 30 days), shortstop Alexi Amarista has been worse (.169/.236/.200), and the replacement for injured first baseman Yonder Alonso, Yangervis Solarte, is hitting .232/.276/.303 over the past 30 days.

What's the Outlook? The Padres have, on paper, three strong starting pitchers, a dominant closer, a star-studded outfield and...well, the weather in San Diego's great and the ballpark's really nice. It's hard to imagine Kemp staying this awful, and Myers and Alonso should provide a boost when they return. The team could still snatch a wild-card spot. 

In the series, the Pirates face Shields and Ross, two of San Diego's best pitchers, over the next two games, so it'd surprise me if their seven-game winning streak gets to ten by the time they leave San Diego. Still, if they can take two of the next three, they'd be 27-23, a .540 winning percentage that's comparable to the .543 won-lost they compiled last season. But then they head up the coast for three against the red-hot Giants, who, along with the Nationals, are the only team in the majors to have won 20 games over the past 30 days. 

If The Boss Were Still Alive

Toward the end of February, the Boston Red Sox signed 19-old-Cuban prospect Yoan Mondaca for $31.5 million. Under baseball's borderline-incomprehensible international signing rules, that amount was doubled to $63 million, half to Moncada, and half to Major League Baseball as a "tax" for exceeding Boston's international spending limit. 

Moncada is a highly-regarded prospect, projected to play second or third base, possibly shortstop, with speed and the potential to hit for average and for power. He doesn't seem to fit in with the Red Sox, who have second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed through 2021, newly-signed Pablo Sandoval under contract through 2019 (with a 2020 option), and 22-year old shortstop Xander Bogaerts under team control through 2019. But Moncada's expected to need a year or two in the minors, and a lot can change over two seasons.

The surprise isn't that Moncada got $31.5 million (and that's just a signing bonus; he'll earn a salary above and beyond that) nor that the big-budget Red Sox got him. But a lot of people figured he'd wind up a Yankee. The Yankees, after all, are the richest franchise in baseball, and they enter 2015 with a 31-year-old second baseman who's played the position only 34 games in the majors and batted .220 over the past three seasons, along with a shortstop platoon consisting of a left-handed batter with a .243 career average and a right-handed batter with a .234 career average. Reportedly, they bid $25 million ($50 million with the penalty), with general manager Brian Cashman wanting to go higher but principal owner Hal Steinbrenner balked.

That scenario led, predictably, into many Yankee fans and pundits moaning that if Hal's father, George Steinbrenner, aka The Boss, were still alive, the Yankees would've signed Moncada. Certainly, the elder Steinbrenner had a reputation for not being outbid for free agent talent that could help the Yankees. Of course, his sons, Hal and Hank, haven't exactly been tightwads, as they committed nearly half a billion dollars last winter, signing outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years for $153 million or, optionally, eight for $169 million), catcher Brian McCann (five years for $85 million or six for $100 million), pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (seven years for $155 million with a player opt-out after four years for $88 million), and outfielder Carlos Beltran (three year, $45 million). Still, there's little question that Moncada would be a good fit for the Yankees, nor that the $13 million by which the Red Sox outbid them isn't that large.

I'm still not convinced, though, that George Steinbrenner would've signed him. No question, the man excelled at signing free agents. He also didn't lose key players to free agency, an key reason for the Yankees' success that often gets overlooked. But he wasn't a big fan of young prospects. Moncada's 19, has never played in anything comparable to American baseball leagues, and, as noted above, is probably two years removed from the majors. That's not the type of player the late Steinbrenner coveted. 

Take the first Yankees world championship team under Steinbrenner, the 1977 team. (That's the year Reggie Jackson hit three home runs in the last game of the World Series.) Left fielder Roy White, catcher Thurman Munson, and pitcher Ron Guidry were drafted by the Yankees. Jackson and pitcher Catfish Hunter were signed as free agents. Every other starting position player, every other member of the five-man pitching rotation, the closer and the key setup man--they were all acquired via trade. Some of them were astute deals involving veterans, but many involved prospects. Steinbrenner traded a lot of prospects for established players, filling other needs via free agency.

Want more proof? Look at the greatest Yankee team of recent vintage, the 114-48 1998 squad that swept to a World Championship. Outside of the Core Four of shortstop Derek Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, starter Andy Pettitte and reliever Mariano Rivera, the team was assembled by trade (first baseman Tino Martinez, second baseman Chuck Knoblauch, third baseman Scott Brosius, left fielder Chad Curtis, right fielder Paul O'Neill) mostly for prospects, and free agency (DHs Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines; starters David Wells, David Cone, Hideki Irabu and Orlando Hernandez; reliever Mike Stanton). The only home-grown regular, outside of the Core Four, was center fielder Bernie Williams.

Wait, you're saying, that "outside of the Core Four" line is pretty glib. True enough: The Yankees drafted Posada and Pettitte and signed Rivera as an amateur free agent in 1990. They drafted Jeter in 1992. The Boss didn't trade any of them away, so why do I think he had a thing against prospects?

Because he didn't have a chance to trade them away. Steinbrenner was suspended from the Yankees in 1990 for his dealings with outfielder Dave Winfield and reinstated in 1993. During his absence, the Core Four rose through the Yankees farm system; all four arrived in the majors in 1995. And even then, Steinbrenner wanted to trade Rivera for a shortstop who would have blocked Jeter. The man saw prospects more as a means to end, rather than an end.

So would George have spent mid-eight figures for a 19-year-old? It's possible, but I question it. Maybe he'd have more aggressively pursued pitchers Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields this winter. I think he wouldn't have let second baseman Robinson Cano depart a year ago, creating a hole that Moncada might have been able to fill. (As I said, I think the Yankees' ability to retain its key players is an underappreciated Steinbrenner strength.) But I think there's a decent chance that Yoan Moncada would be a Red Sox farmhand even if The Boss were still alive.

Transactions Explained:What's a Qualifying Offer?

So, what's a Qualifying Offer? It's a one-year contract offer teams can make to their players who have filed for free agency. This year, a qualifying offer is $15.3 million for the 2015 season.

Why would teams offer that much money for one year? Two reasons. First, the best free agents are worth at least that much. Second, and more importantly, if the player rejects the qualifying offer, the team offering it gets compensation, and the team signing the player gets a penalty.

What's the compensation? If a team offers a player a qualifying offer and the player rejects it, the team gets an extra draft pick after the first round of the amateur draft in June. The extra picks are allocated in reverse order of standing during the prior season.

What's the penalty? A team signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer forfeits its first draft choice in the June amateur draft. One exception: The first ten picks in the draft are "protected" and don't get forfeited. Take, for example, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, one of the stars of the Giants' World Series run. He's a free agent. The Giants made him a qualifying offer. Sandoval will reject it, figuring, correctly, that he'll be able to get both more years and more dollars per year than a one-year, $15.3 million deal. If he signs with another team, that team will forfeit its first-round pick, unless it's one of the ten worst teams in baseball last year: the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Twins, Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, White Sox, and Reds. Those teams will forfeit their second-highest draft pick instead. (If you're thinking, "That's a windfall for the Red Sox, a high-payroll team likely to pursue big-name free agents, because they won't have to give up their first draft pick," you're right.) If a team signs more than one player who rejected a qualifying offer, it'll give up its next-highest draft pick. 

How onerous is that penalty? It depends on the player. The Mariners didn't think about the penalty when they signed Robinson Cano, the best player in last year's free agent class. Losing a draft pick won't stop a team from pursuing Sandoval, or Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer, or Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez. At the lower end of players receiving qualifying offers, though, relinquishing a draft pick can result in teams being unwilling to sign a player. Last year, former Mariners DH Kendrys Morales and former Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew received and rejected qualifying offers and couldn't find anyone to take them. Drew eventually re-signed with the Red Sox in May (there are not penalties or compensation when a free agent re-signs with his original team), and Morales signed with the Twins on June 8 (after the amateur draft, so there was no penalty). It seems pretty clear that two other players who rejected qualifying offers, former Royals starter Ervin Santana and former Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, who signed with Atlanta and Baltimore, respectively, had problems getting a contract due to the draft pick they cost their new teams.

Why is there a penalty? Because baseball wants to compensate teams that lose star players to free agency. This isn't a new idea. Prior to the most recent collective bargaining agreement between the owners and the players, which went into effect in 2012, free agents were assigned a letter grade of A, B, or none, and teams losing the free agents received draft pick compensation based on the grade. The calculation of the grades was pretty flawed, though, and the owners and the union decided to go with the qualifying offer system, which is more market-based.

How did they come up with the $15.3 million figure? It's the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. It gets recalculated every year. Last year it was $14.1 million, the year before $13.3 million.

Are there problems with the system? CJ Nitkowski wrote a nice piece describing them. The most glaring are how they screw players at the bottom of the spectrum, like Drew and Morales and Santana and Cruz last year. There's also a huge loophole: Players who are traded during the last year of their contract aren't subject to qualifying offers or compensation. The two most prominent free agent pitchers this year are Detroit's Max Scherzer and Oakland's Jon Lester. Scherzer spent all of last year with the Tigers, so the Tigers made him a qualifying offer. If he signs with another team, the Tigers will get a supplemental draft pick and the team signing him will lose its first pick. Lester was traded from the Red Sox to the A's at the trade deadline, so Oakland couldn't extend him a qualifying offer and won't receive an extra pick if they lose him. The team signing him won't lose its draft pick. Nitkowski describes some other issues as well.

How often do players accept qualifying offers? It hasn't happened yet. Every player who's received a qualifying offer has rejected it since the system was implemented in 2012. That could change this year, based on the experience of Drew and Morales last year. A lot of folks think Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who turns 36 next March and played only 49 games last year due to injuries, may become the first player to accept a qualifying offer.

Who's received qualifying offers? Twelve players: Detroit's Scherzer and DH Victor Martinez, Pittsburgh's catcher Russell Martin and pitcher Francisco Liriano, Kansas City's James Shields, the Yankees' David Robertson, the Blue Jays' Melky Cabrera, the Dodgers' Ramirez, the Giants' Sandoval, the Rockies' Cuddyer, and, for the second year in a row the Orioles' Cruz and the Braves' Santana. 

When do the players have to let the team know? The players who received qualifying offers were notified Monday and they have a week to respond. So by the end of business on Monday, November 10, they have to make a decision.

What happens if they reject the offer? They become free agents, able to sign with any team (subject to the compensation for their former team and penalty for their signing team) described above.

Are the parties happy with the system? Players understandably don't like any system that reduces their value, and attaching a penalty to signing a player reduces their value. Owners like getting compensated for losing players. So that's the impasse, and the qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to bridge it. The examples last year of Drew and Morales, and to a lesser degree Santana and Cruz, illustrate some of the problems of the system, as is the loophole that will enable the team signing Lester to avoid any penalty. Expect these and other issues to be modified the next time the players and owners negotiate their collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through December 1, 2016.

Flyover: Kansas City Royals

With the season winding down, and the postseason pretty much set, I figured I'd wrap this up by covering the remaining contenders, starting with the Kansas City Royals. Here are my links to the Orioles, Tigers, A's, Angels, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants. As a reminder, for each team, I'm looking at how they've done over the past 30 days.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've kind of slouched into the postseason. A month ago, the Royals were 2.5 games up on Detroit in the AL Central. Were they to fall out of the top slot, they were four games behind the Athletics and two ahead of the Mariners for the wild card. Since then, the Tigers have taken control of the division, going 18-11, while Kansas City's played .500 ball, 14-14. However, they've pulled away from the A's (9-19, worst in the league) and the Mariners (13-15). If the season were to end today, they'd host Oakland for the wild card play-in game. They'e scored 3.46 runs per game, just tenth in the league, while giving up 3.75, the seventh fewest, over the past 30 days.

What's Going Right? The Royals haven't scored a lot due to a lack of power, as I'll explain below, but they're OK at getting on base: fifth in batting average over the past 30 days at .259, sixth in on base percentage at .317. Not great, but OK. They could help themselves by walking more (7% of plate appearances, fifth fewest in the league), but that's not been a Royals team strength--they're last in the league, walking in just 6% of plate appearances, for the full year. Once on base, they've been the league's most prolific basestealers (36 over the past 30 days, no other team's even at 30) and competent as well (success on 80% of attempts compared to a league average of 76%). 

The team ERA of 3.25 is fifth in the league over the past 30 days: 3.26 for the starters (sixth), 3.23 for the relievers (fifth). They've been extremely stingy with the long ball, allowing the fewest homers (ten) and the lowest percentage of fly balls becoming home runs (4.3%). Those numbers are particularly impressive when you consider that the Royals pitchers don't get to pitch to the Royals hitters. They've followed the On The Field Of Play mantra, it's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. They've been a little below average at throwing strikes, with 48.4% of pitches in the strike zone, fifth fewest in the league over the last 30 days, but well above average at getting strikes, inducing batters to swing at a fifth-highest 32.0% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Part of the success of the pitchers is attributable to the team's defense. Virtually every fielding metric ranks the Orioles and Royals as the best-fielding teams in the league by a fair margin.

What's Going Wrong? The Royals have had a power outage all year, slugging .376, fourth lowest in the league compared to a league average of .390, and the last 30 days fit the pattern. They've hit ten homers, fewest in the league. Their isolated slugging--slugging percentage less batting average--is .098, second lowest. Some of that is probably bad luck, as their percentage of fly balls that go over the fence has been just 4.1% over the past 30 days, second lowest in the league and less than half the league average of 8.7%, but they're last over the full year (6.5% vs. the league's 9.5%) as well, so it's not like this is something new.

As for their inability to draw walks, last year their GM, Dayton Moore, fairly improbably blamed their home field, Kauffman Stadium, for their lack of walks, claiming the ballpark suppresses free passes. If that were true, the Royals would draw more walks in road games than at home. In actuality, they've walked more frequently at home (6.4% of plate appearances) than on the road (6.1%) this year. Good try, though, Dayton.

Who's Hot? Right fielder Nori Aoki is batting .361 over the past 30 days, fifth in the league, and has an on base percentage of .415, sixth. Center fielder Lornezo Cain's batting .327 and is tied for third in the league with seven stolen bases. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is batting .321 (though with a barely higher .336 on base percentage, as he's drawn only two walks) and is tied for eighth with six steals. The best power source has been first baseman Eric Hosmer, batting .310 with a .368 on base percentage and .529 slugging percentage (eleventh in the league).

The top of the Royals rotation looks set for the postseason. The top four starters are James Shields, who's 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA over the past 30 days, Jeremy Guthrie (3-1, 3.25) and rookie Yordano Ventura (4-1, 1.62). Lefty starter Danny Duffy, sidelined much of September with shoulder pain, put up good numbers in his first start over two weeks on Monday, holding Cleveland to six hits, two walks, and no runs while striking out five in six innings, though not everyone was impressed. 

If the Royals starter goes six innings, the Royals hand the ball over to Kelvin Herrera in the seventh, Wade Davis in the eighth, and Greg Holland in the ninth. Over the past 30 days, those three have combined for 40 appearances covering 38.2 innings, during which they've allowed 25 hits and eight walks while striking out 49 with a 1.16 ERA. The thing is, that's not a big outlier for this trio: they all have ERAs below 1.50 for the full season, the main reason the Royals are 64-4 in games they've led after six innnings. If the three maintain their sub-1.50 ERAs, the Royals will join the 1907 Chicago Cubs as the only teams in history with three pitchers with over 60 innings pitched with ERAs that low. (Fun facts: Those Cubs won the World Series, had a team ERA of 1.73, used only eight pitchers all year, and the three with sub-1.50 ERAs were all starters: Mordecai Brown had a 1.39 ERA over 233 innings, Carl Lundgren was 1.17 over 207 innings, and Jack Pfeister was 1.15 over 195 innings.)

Who's Not? Left fielder Alex Gordon is a lock for a Gold Glove award, but he's batting only .188 over the past 30 days, striking out in 27% of his plate appearances. Third baseman Mike Moustakis has a .211/.273/.244 slash line (the league average is .249/.309/.380) and DH Billy Butler has barely been better at .219/.286/.281.

If Duffy's not right, the No. 4 postseason starter will be Jason Vargas, who's been bad (6.46 ERA) over the past 30 days. But we may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves talking about a No. 4 starter in the postseason anyway.
  
What's the Outlook? The Royals are one of the nice stories of this season, as they'll play in the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 1985. As of now, they'll host Oakland for a one-game play-in on Tuesday. However, they could win the division (they enter play today a game behind Detroit), their wild card opponent could be Seattle (which is two games behind Oakland), and they could lose the home field advantage in the play-in (if they lose their last two games and Oakland wins theirs).

Assuming the Royals are a wild-card team, a victory would take them to a best-of-five Divisional Series against the Angels, who have the best record in the American League and against whom the Royals split six games this year. They're not a good hitting team. They'll be the only American League postseason team to score a below-average number of runs (unless Seattle sneaks past Oakland). But with their solid starters and lockdown bullpen, they're well-positioned for the postseason, where good pitching beats good hitting, right? Except, as I showed yesterday, that's not the case. The Royals' long postseason drought has ended, but maybe not for long.

How High-Quality is a Quality Start?

One of the easier-to-understand new metrics is the Quality Start, a statistic invented by Philadelphia Inquirer sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 (according to Wikipedia). (I suppose something that's been around 29 years isn't all that new.) A starting pitcher gets credit for a quality start if he pitches six or more innings and allows three or fewer earned runs. That's it.

The criticism you hear of a quality start is that three runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA, which isn't very good. Of course, a perfect game's a quality start too. Do quality starts indicate pitching excellence or mediocrity?

I looked at quality starts in 2013. Here are a few tidbits:

• There were 2,431 games last year, so 4,862 games started. There were 2,556 quality starts. That means about 53% of starts were quality starts. That doesn't sound that impressive. But wait.
• The leaders: Clayton Kershaw and James Shields had 27, Adam Wainwright had 26, Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer had 25. By percentage of starts: Kershaw had quality starts in 82% of his starts, Shields 79%, Scherzer 78%, and Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon, Chris Sale, and Matt Harvey all had 77%. Those are all good pitchers, including both Cy Young Award winners. That sounds good.
• Teams that got a quality start won 65.6% of their games last year. That's the equivalent of going 106-56. That tells you that a quality start gives a team an excellent chance to win. 

All well and good, you're thinking, but do pitchers in quality starts actually pitch well? It turns out the answer is: Yeah, do they ever.

The major league average ERA and WHIP for starters last year were 4.01 and 1.306, respectively. The six-inning, three-run outing with a 4.50 ERA cited above would thus be below-average.

But that's not the norm. In their 2,556 quality starts last year, pitchers compiled a 1.93 ERA and 0.986 WHIP. The closest to those figures: Kershaw's 1.83 ERA and Jose Fernandez's 0.979 WHIP. Yes, it's true that a starter can get a quality start with a 4.50 ERA. That happened 213 times last year, 8.3% of quality starts. But on average, you're getting something like Kershaw and Fernandez when you get a quality start.

2014 Predictions: AL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions.  Here's the National League West, Central, and East, along with the American League West and East. 

Detroit Tigers - 96-66 in 2013, 4.9 runs scored per game (2nd in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): They've still got Miguel Cabrera and those starting pitchers, they've added a strong closer in Joe Nathan, but the injury bug has bit LF Don Kelly and SS Jose Iglesias. Their hitters are the second-oldest int he league, so time's running out on this team to win a World Series. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 91-71.

Cleveland Indians - 92-70, 4.6 runs scored per game (6th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (14th in MLB): After the Pirates, the Indians were the happy-story team of 2013. But they lost SPs Ubaldo Jiminez and Scott Kazmir via free agency (those two combined for 37% of the team's starting pitcher innings) and didn't add a lot. I could see them regressing a lot. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed,  84-78.

Kansas City Royals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (18th in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (6th in MLB): The Royals continue their quest to end the longest postseason drought in American sports today. SP James Shields is a free agent after this year, LF Alex Gordon is 30, and the bullpen's best-in-the-league 2.55 ERA last year probably isn't sustainable, so the clock's ticking. But the club addressed weaknesses at 2B and RF, adding Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki, and has one of baseball's most exciting rookies, hard-throwing hurler Yordano Ventura. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 89-73.

Minnesota Twins - 66-96, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.9 runs allowed per game (29th in MLB): The Twins' starters were historically bad last year, which is why the addition of OK-but-not-great Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes via free agency is a big upgrade. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the Twins offense, and stud slugging prospect Miguel Sano is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 69-93.

Chicago White Sox - 63-99, 3.7 runs scored per game (29th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (23rd in MLB): The White Sox's Cuban import, 1B Jose Abreu, could provide pop that was lacking last year. Fangraphs projects him to be 33%-40% above league average, with power and good on-base skills. CF Adam Eaton, acquired by trade, is a formerly highly-regarded prospect looking to improve from a change of scenery. This is team with an offense that's the analogue to the Twins' pitching - can't help but get better. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 68-94.