Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Championship Series Edition

I batted .500 in the wild cards round, getting the Cubs over the Pirates but not the Astros over the Cubs. I did better in the Divisional Series round, correctly picking Toronto over Texas, Kansas City over Houston, and Chicago over St. Louis, missing New York over Los Angeles. (For those of you who listened to my Banished to the Pen podcast appearance, my pick of Toronto over Los Angeles in the World Series is already kaput.) 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - TORONTO VS. KANSAS CITY

The American League Division Series offered the possibility of interesting Championship Series matchups: Power vs. power Toronto/Houston. All-Lone Star State Texas/Houston. Instead, we've got what was probably the most likely outcome: The two teams with the best record in the American League. Both American League Division Series went the full five games, so the teams have equally depleted pitching staffs. Toronto will start Marco Estrada tonight, David Price tomorrow afternoon, and Marcus Stroman Monday night against the Royals' Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Johnny Cueto, respectively.

This series, like Kansas City's against Houston, features some contrasts in hitting, though fewer than in the Division Series. The Blue Jays led the league in home runs; the Royals were second to last. Toronto drew the most walks, Kansas City the fewest. But the Blue Jays don't pair strikeouts with power: They had the fourth lowest strikeout rate, though Kansas City had the lowest by far. As a result, while the Royals get kudos for making contact when they swing, their contact rate, second in the league, isn't dramatically higher than that of the Jays (seventh), and the Jays are less free-swinging, chasing the second lowest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone as the Royals chased the second highest

Both teams made big pitching acquisitions at the trade deadline, with the Royals adding Cueto and the Blue Jays getting Price. Since the All-Star break, Blue Jays pitchers allowed the lowest rate of hard contact on batted balls, the third highest rate of soft contact, and the lowest rate of home runs on fly balls. The Royals were seventh on all three measures. Over the full season, the Royals had the better bullpen, but the two teams' relievers were very close in the season's second half, with a 3.33 ERA for Kansas City and a 3.35 ERA for Toronto. Toronto's relievers struck out fewer batters but walked a lot fewer. 

Toronto got here by playing one of the most memorable playoff games ever in the deciding Game Five. Kansas City's Game Five win was much less exciting. But it's not a carryover of momentum or emotion or heart that's going to decide the series. It's talent, and from what I can see, the Blue Jays have more at the plate and in their starting rotation, with the Royals having better fielders and a better bullpen. I'll take the Blue Jays' plusses over the Royals'. Toronto in six.


NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - CHICAGO VS. NEW YORK

There could be as many four dates on which there will be both ALCS and NLCS games: Saturday the 17th and Tuesday the 20th for sure, Wednesday the 21st and Saturday the 24th depending on how far the series go. Gee, which of the two games on those dates do you think will get the prime time slot: Kansas City (No. 31 media market in US) vs. Toronto (No. 1 in Canada, a nation with a population less than that of California), or Chicago (No. 3 in US) vs. New York (No. 1)? [UPDATE: I wrote that before MLB announced the official start times. I was 75% right. The Cubs-Mets game is prime time on October 17, October 20, and, if the ALCS goes to five games, October 21. It'll be the afternoon game on October 24, but only if the ALCS goes to seven games.]

These two teams are surprisingly similar. You think of the Cubs, and you think of young hitters, and you'd be right: per Baseball Reference, Cubs hitters are the second youngest in the league. You think of the Mets, and you think of young pitchers, and you'd be kind of right: Baseball Reference lists the Mets as the seventh youngest, but that's thrown off by the presence of 42-year-old Bartolo Colon; remove him and they're second or third youngest. But here are the similarities:

• On offense, both teams are extreme fly ball hitters. The Cubs and Mets were 1-2 in the 15-team National League in percentage of batted balls that were fly balls, and 14-15 in the percentage of batted balls that were grounders.
• When they hit the ball in the air, they left the park more than average: the Cubs were fourth in homers/fly balls, the Mets fifth.
• They both refused to chase pitches outside the strike zone. The Mets swung at the lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone, the Cubs the second lowest.
• Batters had a hard time making contact against both pitching staffs: The Mets were 11th in contact rate, the Cubs 12th. And they kept fly balls in the yard, as Mets pitchers were tenth in homers/fly balls, the Cubs eleventh.
• Both pitching staffs struck out a lot of batters, though, contrary to perception, the Cubs hurlers struck out more, with the highest strikeout rate in the league. The Mets were fifth. Both avoided bases on balls, as the Mets had the second lowest walk rate and the Cubs the fourth lowest.
• Both teams' pitchers induced a lot of grounders, with the Cubs and Mets ranking sixth and seventh in percentage of batted balls hit on the ground.

There were some differences. The Cub hitters struck out more (first in the league) than the Mets (eighth), but they also walked more (second highest walk rate, the Mets were sixth). Mets pitchers were more fly ball prone, and Cubs pitchers more line drive prone.

I'm picking the Cubs in seven for three reasons. First, once you adjust for their respective home fields, the Cubs had a better pitching staff. Park-adjusted offense is a bit of a tossup (the Mets overall appear to be a bit better), but park-adjusted pitching isn't. Second, the Cubs's last game was on Tuesday, so their pitching staff will enter the NLCS pretty well rested, while the Mets won't have Jacob deGrom available until the third game of the series, and it's not clear when Noah Syndergaard, who pitched only one inning yesterday but warmed up multiple times, will be ready to go. Third, while both teams came on strong during the second half of the season, the Mets had a considerably easier schedule. Beginning July 28, the Mets played 63 games, going 39-24: Six against the Yankees and Pirates, against whom they went 1-5; nine against the Nationals, who were in meltdown mode; and 48 against teams that finished .500 or worse. The Cubs, over the same stretch, played better--45-19--against a much tougher schedule that included 19 games against teams that qualified for the postseason. As a result, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Cubs with 96 third order wins (based on run differential and quality of opponents) compared to 88 for the Mets. I expect a close series between two similar and evenly matched teams, but I think the Cubs are the better club.

Next Up: The Kansas City Royals

"Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher."

That quote, attributed to Hall of Fame Orioles manager Earl Weaver, sums up one of baseball's appeals to me. The game is played almost every day of the week for six months straight. If you lose today, there's a game tomorrow, starting with a score of 0-0. The idea of one game or a handful of games that turn around a team's entire season is hard to justify in a sport in which the season consists of 162, rather than 16 (NFL) of 82 (NHL and NFL) games.

Just as a demoralizing loss can be put in a team's rear view mirror in 24 hours, so is the impact of a dramatic win limited and, as far as I'm concerned, often overstated. A come-from-behind or walkoff victory is exciting, but there's still a game the next day, starting at 0-0. If you think the positive vibes carry over for the victor (or harm the loser), consider the Pirates, winner of back-to-back extra-inning walkoff victories against the Cardinals prior to the All-Star break, cutting St. Louis's lead in the Central Division from 4.5 games at the start of their four game series to 2.5. Now, three games into the second half of the season, the Cardinals are back to leading by 4.5 games, having taken two out of three from a Mets team that's on the periphery of the National League wild card race, while the Pirates were swept in Milwaukee by the team with the worst record in the National League Central. Just as I'd caution against reading much into the Pirates' two victories against the Cardinal before the break and what they say about the two teams, so I don't read much into the three games since the break. It's a long season, and momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

The next day's starting pitcher for the Pirates to begin a three-game series against the Royals in Kansas City are their two All-Star starters, A.J. Burnett and Gerrit Cole, as the team tries to turn things around against the best team in the American League.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Royals are one of the biggest surprise teams in baseball this year. Yes, they lasted until the seventh game of the World Series last October, but they made the postseason only as a wild card team, kind of lucked their way past the A's in the wild card play-in, and lost a couple key players (starting pitcher James Shields, DH Billy Butler) over the winter. They were picked by many (including me) to miss the postseason this year, finishing behind the Tigers, Indians, and, in the opinion of some (including me), White Sox in the American League Central. Of the predictors I track (Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, ESPN), I had them with most wins: 79, a sub-.500 season. Instead, they have the best record in the American League, 55-35, six games ahead of the even more surprising Minnesota Twins.

Over the last 30 days, the Royals are also the best team in the league at 17-9. They've scored the eighth most runs per game, 4.35, and given up the eighth fewest, 4.00, suggesting they've been a little lucky over the stretch (a team with that run differential is most likely to go about 14-12), but this is no fluke team: they've scored 67 more runs than they've given up this year, tied with the Dodgers for the biggest run differential in baseball after the Cardinals.

What's Going Right? The Royals' bullpen is a key strength, as the relievers are fourth in the American League in ERA and strikeout rate, fifth in ground ball rate and avoiding hard contact on batted balls, and the lead the American League in both holds and saves (but also blown saves) over the past 30 days. They've worked a lot, though, as their 87.1 innings pitched tops the Junior Circuit during the period. 

On offense, they're second in the league in batting and on base percentage over the past 30 days but ninth in slugging. If you followed the Royals' postseason run last year, you got familiar with their offensive storyline: Not a lot of walks, strikeouts, or homers, but plenty of stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. They've been true to form over the last 30 days: fifth-lowest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, sixth fewest home runs, most stolen bases, sixth-most sacrifice hits. Basically, they've gotten on base enough that the lack of power hasn't prevented them from scoring runs, though again, their runs per game are exactly in the middle of the American League.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitching has been shaky, with a 4.23 ERA over the past 30 days, along with the second-lowest strikeout rate and the fourth-highest walk rate in the league. Though the starters' control is good--they lead the league in percentage of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days--they're not fooling batters, who've swung at only 29% of pitches outside the zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league. 

Who's Hot? The three workhorses in the bullpen are Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. The trio's combined for 1.88 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 38.1 innings over the past 30 days. The rest of the bullpen's been pretty good too, with a 2.94 combined ERA. (As an aside, here's a fun fact: Wade Davis's career ERA as a reliever, 1.40, is more then three runs better than his career ERA as a starter, 4.57).

The Royals have three batters with on base percentages in excess of .400 over the past 30 days: center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who's been absolutely on fire (.429/.500/.753 slash line with a team-leading seven stolen bases), shortstop Alcides Escobar (.346 batting average, .409 on base percentage, though only four extra base hits) and left fielder Alex Gordon (.298/.420/.474 but unfortunately disabled until September with a groin pull).

Who's Not? The only Royals starter with an ERA below 3.70 over the past 30 days is Danny Duffy, whom the Pirates won't face. Instead, they'll go against Yordano Ventura (in only his second start since June 12 as he's dealt with hand and elbow issues), Jason Vargas (coming off the disabled list; he last pitched on June 8), and former Pirate Edinson Volquez. Volquez has a 3.71 ERA but--sounds familiar, Pirates fans?--not enough strikeouts (14.2% of batters faced, the league average is 18.9%) and too many walks (8.1% of batters faced, the league average is 6.7%).

It's easy to make fun of Royals hitters, since the team's fans voted five of them to the All-Star team. Over the past 30 days, two of them have been bad. (The others are Cain, Escobar, and Gordon). Catcher Salvador Perez has hit five homers but has a .179 batting average, .198 on base percentage, and only one walk over the past month. Manager Ned Yost has a reputation for overworking his young (Santana turned 25 in May) backstop, but unlike last year, when he caught nearly 130 more innings than any other American League catcher, he's only tied with Seattle's Mike Zunino for the most innings behind the plate this year in the American League, and those two trail St. Louis's Yadier Molina, who's caught 7% more innings. Third baseman Mike Moustakas, who got off to a hot start, has a decidedly un-hot .224/.287/.355 slash line over the past 30 days. Almost-got-voted-to-the-All-Stars second baseman Omar Infante is hitting .240/.262/.280. For a frame of reference, the American League average slash line over the past 30 days is .254/.312/.411.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates enter the series with a 53-38 record, 4.5 behind St. Louis and 2.5 behind Kansas City. Add to that the fact that the Royals play in the better league, and it's hard to conclude anything but that the Royals are the stronger team so far. But that doesn't mean they're unbeatable. The Pirates will face two pitchers with a lot of rust on them and one whom they know very well. And the rotation is the Royals' weak spot. If you can run up the score against the Kansas City starters, you're in a good position to win. You just want to keep them from handing the ball to that bullpen in late innings with a lead.

What's Bugging the Statheads About This World Series

Every postseason, it seems, engenders a de rigueur response from someone in the media about how one team or the other or the style of play or something infuriates the stats guys, sabermetricians, Moneyball crowd (my favorite term of disrespect, because it misses the point of the book, which is exploiting market inefficiencies, not statistical analysis), whatever. This year's Series brought out a larger-than-usual number of such columns, given that both teams don't hit a lot of home runs, strike out much, or draw a bunch of walks. The Giants were 17th, 17th, and 21st in the majors in home runs, strikeouts, and walks, respectively, while the Royals were famously last in all three categories, the first such team to make it to the Series. Add the Royals' penchant for stolen bases (153, first in the majors, 11% more than the second-ranked team) and sacrifice bunts to extend the narrative.

Not that any of this is really all that true. I mean, yes, the Royals were last in those categories during the regular season, but, as I pointed out after Kansas City won the ALCS, they made it to Series by hitting an above-average number of homers, walking at a much higher-than-average rate, and striking out about as frequently as everyone else. As for the speed, well, the Royals have attempted only five stolen bases in the ALCS and World Series, and were successful only twice, so the stolen base has been more a detriment than a weapon for them.

But there's one thing that both managers have done that's fair game for criticism from he analytic community: Sticking with their starters too long. The times through the order penalty (TTO) refers to what happens to starting pitchers each successive time they face the opposing team's lineup. The longer a pitcher goes, not only does he get tired, but the hitters get used to his delivery and timing, making it easier to make contact.

In 2014, for example, in batters' first plate appearance against a starting pitcher, they batted .246 with a .304 on base percentage and a .377 slugging percentage. They hit home runs in 2.3% of plate appearances, walked in 7.1%, and struck out in 21.1%.

In the second plate appearance, batters' slash line improved to .256/.313/.395. They homered in 2.3% of plate appearances, walked in 7.0%, struck out in 19.1%.

In the third plate appearance, the slash line was .268/.327/.421. Per plate appearance, batters homered 2.7% of the time, walked 7.4%, and struck out 17.7%.

The pattern is pretty clear: The more times a pitcher faces a batter, the more hits, home runs, and walks he gives up, and the fewer strikeouts he gets. 

This has played out in the Series:

• In Game Two, the teams were tied at two runs apiece after five. The managers kept their pitchers in, even though both were facing batters for the third time. In the top of the sixth, Royals starter Yordano Ventura allowed two singles and was lifted. Reliever Kelvin Herrera put out the fire. In the bottom of the sixth, Giants starter Jake Peavy allowed a walk and single, was pulled, but both runners scored, and by the time the inning ended, the Giants were losing 7-2. Both starters ran into problems the third time through the order, though only the Giants were burned.
• In Game Three, the Royals were up 1-0 after five. In the top of the sixth, Royals manager Ned Yost let starting Jeremy Guthrie bat, and he grounded out. Giants starter Tim Hudson then faced Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar for the third time. He singled, left fielder Alex Gordon doubled him home, and a groundout and a pitching change later, first baseman Eric Hosmer drove in Gordon. In the bottom of the inning, Yost's decision to let Guthrie bat came back to bite him, as Guthrie allowed a single and a double and then, facing center fielder Gregor Blanco for the third time, a walk. Again, the Royals bullpen put out the fire, as the Royals won 3-2. Again, both starters ran into problems the third time through the order.
• Game Four was a blowout, with the Giants winning 11-4, but the Royals had a 4-2 lead going into the fifth inning. Starting the bottom of the fifth, facing Giants second baseman Joe Panik for the third time, Royals starter Jason Vargas gave up a double. Yost relieved him, so there wasn't much damage, though Panik came around to score in an inning which the Giants tied the game. Vargas gave up a third-time-through-the-order hit that at the time was costly.

I'm not including Games 1 and 5, because the Giants jumped to a first-inning 3-0 lead in the first game, and besides, Madison Bumgarner, who started both games for the Giants, has been invincible in the postseason (six starts, 1.13 ERA, 0.67 WHIP). He also has had a minimal TTO penalty this year, with batters compiling a .706 OPS against him in their first plate appearance, .603 in the second, .675 in the third. (The league average OPS in 2014 was .694.)

Tonight, the starters are Jake Peavy for the Giants and Yordano Ventura for the Royals. Here's how batters did against them in their starts this year:

Jake Peavy	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR%	SO%	BB%
First plate appearance	258	20	59	12	2	7	23	63	.229	.290	.372	.662	2.4%	24.4%	8.0%
Second plate appearance	263	28	59	13	1	8	17	54	.224	.276	.373	.648	2.8%	18.9%	5.9%
Third plate appearance	220	34	71	17	4	8	22	40	.323	.387	.545	.933	3.1%	15.7%	8.6%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2014.

Yordano Ventura	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR%	SO%	BB%
First plate appearance	245	11	52	10	3	1	20	54	.212	.276	.290	.566	0.4%	20.1%	7.4%
Second plate appearance	241	33	60	13	1	8	26	57	.249	.326	.411	.737	3.0%	21.1%	9.6%
Third plate appearance	181	18	48	5	1	4	20	42	.265	.340	.370	.710	2.0%	20.5%	9.8%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 10/28/2014.

Peavy has been pretty good through the first couple times through the order but he's collapsed the the third time through. That .933 OPS that he's allowed--well, Mike Trout, who will be the AL MVP, had a .939 OPS this year. Giants manager Bruce Bochy really shouldn't let him pitch after he's gone through the Royals lineup twice.

As for Ventura, he's been nails the first time through the order, but below average thereafter: the .725 OPS he's allowed the second and third time through the order compares to an AL average of .706.

Presumably, both pitchers will be on short leashes tonight, with the Giants one win from the championship and the Royals one loss from elimination. But if we see, say, Peavy come out in the sixth to face the Royals lineup a third time, clinging to a one- or two-run lead, we could see more sixth-inning fireworks (12 of the 42 runs scored this Series, nearly 30%, have come in the sixth inning, during which starters are typically facing the opponents' batters a third time), courtesy of a failure to understand the times through the order penalty.

Trailing 30 - September 29

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Obviously, this is it for the year. Looks to me as if the AL and NL Players of the Month are Detroit's Victor Martinez and Los Angeles' Matt Kemp, respectively--feel stronger about Kemp than Martinez. The AL Pitcher of the Month should probably be Corey Kluber but I'll bet a playoff team's starter gets the nod: Bud Norris of the Orioles or Yordano Ventura of the Royals. In the National League, I imagine Washington's Jordan Zimmermann's season-ending no-hitter and 4-0 record give him the nod. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Baltimore       19-10     1. Washington       20-9       

2. Los Angeles     17-11     2. Los Angeles      18-9        

3. Detroit         17-12     3. St. Louis       19-10         

4. Toronto         16-12     4. Pittsburgh      18-10   

5. Cleveland       16-13     5. New York        16-11        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Oakland         10-18     1. Arizona          8-20      

2. Minnesota       11-17     2. Atlanta          8-19       

3. Boston          12-16     3. Milwaukee        9-19      

4. Tampa Bay       12-15     4. Cincinnati      11-16
5. Chicago         13-15     5. Miami           12-17

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Brantley, Cle    .405     1. Uribe, LA        .378        

2. Altuve, Hou      .387     2. Posey, SF        .375      

3. Aoki, KC         .375     3. Crawford, SF     .358           

4. Kendrick, LA     .372     4. Morneau, Col     .355          

5. V Martinez, Det  .370     5. Marte, Pit       .347       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Fuld, Oak        .169     1. Baez, Chi        .149          

2. Teixeira, NY     .173     2. Alcantara, Chi   .165       

3. Morales, Sea     .190     3. J Upton, Atl     .176
4. Gordon, KC       .200     4. Pence, SF        .200           

   Valencia, Tor    .200     5. Utley, Phi       .209      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. V Martinez, Det  .471     1. Werth, Was       .470           

2. Brantley, Cle    .455     2. McCutchen, Pit   .451          

3. Bautista, Tor    .426     3. Gomez, Mil       .420         

4. Aoki, KC         .423     4. Posey, SF        .418          

5. Beltre, Tex      .420     5. Morneau, Col     .414       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Cabrera, Det     .673     1. Kemp, LA         .704         

2. V Martinez, Det  .620     2. Gonzalez, LA     .600     

3. Cruz, Bal        .605     3. Holliday, SL     .586       

4. Bautista, Tor    .585     4. Posey, SF        .580       

5. Trout, LA        .576     5. McCutchen, Pit   .574        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Bautista, Tor       8     1. Gonzalez, LA        9
   Cabrera, Det        8        Kemp, LA            9        

   McCann, NY          8     3. Frazier, Cin        7

4. Encarnacion, Tor    7        Holliday, SL        7
5. 6 with              6        LaRoche, Was        7
        
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Bautista, Tor      24     1. Kemp, LA           22        

   Trout, LA          24     2. Puig, LA           21     

3. Betts, Bos         23     3. Gonzalez, LA       20
4. Calhoun, LA        22        McCutchen, Pit     20
   Santana, Min       22     5. Gordon, LA         19

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Bautista, Tor      23     1. Gonzalez, LA       26        

   Pujols, LA         23        Kemp, LA           26      

3. Encarnacion, Tor   22     3. Trumbo, Ari        23       

4. 3 with             21     4. LaRoche, Was       22
                             5. Holliday, SL       21
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Martin, Tex         9     1. Revere, Phi        10            

2. Santana, Min        8     2. Lagares, NY         8     

3. 6 with              7     3. Bonifacio, Atl      7   

                                Desmond, Was        7
                                Inciarte, Ari       7

   Saves                        Saves

1. Rodney, Sea        10     1. Storen, Was        10

2. Britton, Bal        8     2. Chapman, Cin        8

3. Nathan, Det         7        Cishek, Mia         8
   Street, LA          7        Mejia, NY           8

5. 4 with              6        Melancon, Pit       8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Feldman, Hou     1.45     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.95

2. House, Cle       1.45     2. Volquez, Pit     1.08

3. Holland, Tex     1.46     3. Strasburg, Was   1.13

4. McHugh, Hou      1.59     4. Peavy, SF        1.15

5. Carrasco, Cle    1.62     5. Zimmermann, Was  1.32

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Iwakuma, Sea     6.98     1. Santana, Atl     6.51

2. Kazmir, Oak      5.85     2. Bergman, Col     6.11

3. Porcello, Det    5.46        Leake, Cin       6.11

4. Gibson, Min      5.09     4. Burnett, Phi     6.06

5. Noesi, Chi       4.78     5. Vogelsong, SF    5.53

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. McHugh, Hou      0.56     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.71

2. Pineda, NY       0.79     2. Haren, LA        0.73
3. Samardzija, Oak  0.80     3. Zimmermann, Was  0.74

4. Hammel, Oak      0.80     4. Strasburg, Was   0.76
5. Shields, KC      0.86     5. Collmenter, Ari  0.79

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Kluber, Cle        56     1. Kershaw, LA        45      

2. Carrasco, Cle      54        Cole, Pit          45

3. Hutchison, Tor     50     3. Cueto, Cin         43

4. Price, Det         47     4. 4 with             40

5. Samardzija, Oak    46        

Flyover: Kansas City Royals

With the season winding down, and the postseason pretty much set, I figured I'd wrap this up by covering the remaining contenders, starting with the Kansas City Royals. Here are my links to the Orioles, Tigers, A's, Angels, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants. As a reminder, for each team, I'm looking at how they've done over the past 30 days.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've kind of slouched into the postseason. A month ago, the Royals were 2.5 games up on Detroit in the AL Central. Were they to fall out of the top slot, they were four games behind the Athletics and two ahead of the Mariners for the wild card. Since then, the Tigers have taken control of the division, going 18-11, while Kansas City's played .500 ball, 14-14. However, they've pulled away from the A's (9-19, worst in the league) and the Mariners (13-15). If the season were to end today, they'd host Oakland for the wild card play-in game. They'e scored 3.46 runs per game, just tenth in the league, while giving up 3.75, the seventh fewest, over the past 30 days.

What's Going Right? The Royals haven't scored a lot due to a lack of power, as I'll explain below, but they're OK at getting on base: fifth in batting average over the past 30 days at .259, sixth in on base percentage at .317. Not great, but OK. They could help themselves by walking more (7% of plate appearances, fifth fewest in the league), but that's not been a Royals team strength--they're last in the league, walking in just 6% of plate appearances, for the full year. Once on base, they've been the league's most prolific basestealers (36 over the past 30 days, no other team's even at 30) and competent as well (success on 80% of attempts compared to a league average of 76%). 

The team ERA of 3.25 is fifth in the league over the past 30 days: 3.26 for the starters (sixth), 3.23 for the relievers (fifth). They've been extremely stingy with the long ball, allowing the fewest homers (ten) and the lowest percentage of fly balls becoming home runs (4.3%). Those numbers are particularly impressive when you consider that the Royals pitchers don't get to pitch to the Royals hitters. They've followed the On The Field Of Play mantra, it's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. They've been a little below average at throwing strikes, with 48.4% of pitches in the strike zone, fifth fewest in the league over the last 30 days, but well above average at getting strikes, inducing batters to swing at a fifth-highest 32.0% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Part of the success of the pitchers is attributable to the team's defense. Virtually every fielding metric ranks the Orioles and Royals as the best-fielding teams in the league by a fair margin.

What's Going Wrong? The Royals have had a power outage all year, slugging .376, fourth lowest in the league compared to a league average of .390, and the last 30 days fit the pattern. They've hit ten homers, fewest in the league. Their isolated slugging--slugging percentage less batting average--is .098, second lowest. Some of that is probably bad luck, as their percentage of fly balls that go over the fence has been just 4.1% over the past 30 days, second lowest in the league and less than half the league average of 8.7%, but they're last over the full year (6.5% vs. the league's 9.5%) as well, so it's not like this is something new.

As for their inability to draw walks, last year their GM, Dayton Moore, fairly improbably blamed their home field, Kauffman Stadium, for their lack of walks, claiming the ballpark suppresses free passes. If that were true, the Royals would draw more walks in road games than at home. In actuality, they've walked more frequently at home (6.4% of plate appearances) than on the road (6.1%) this year. Good try, though, Dayton.

Who's Hot? Right fielder Nori Aoki is batting .361 over the past 30 days, fifth in the league, and has an on base percentage of .415, sixth. Center fielder Lornezo Cain's batting .327 and is tied for third in the league with seven stolen bases. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is batting .321 (though with a barely higher .336 on base percentage, as he's drawn only two walks) and is tied for eighth with six steals. The best power source has been first baseman Eric Hosmer, batting .310 with a .368 on base percentage and .529 slugging percentage (eleventh in the league).

The top of the Royals rotation looks set for the postseason. The top four starters are James Shields, who's 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA over the past 30 days, Jeremy Guthrie (3-1, 3.25) and rookie Yordano Ventura (4-1, 1.62). Lefty starter Danny Duffy, sidelined much of September with shoulder pain, put up good numbers in his first start over two weeks on Monday, holding Cleveland to six hits, two walks, and no runs while striking out five in six innings, though not everyone was impressed. 

If the Royals starter goes six innings, the Royals hand the ball over to Kelvin Herrera in the seventh, Wade Davis in the eighth, and Greg Holland in the ninth. Over the past 30 days, those three have combined for 40 appearances covering 38.2 innings, during which they've allowed 25 hits and eight walks while striking out 49 with a 1.16 ERA. The thing is, that's not a big outlier for this trio: they all have ERAs below 1.50 for the full season, the main reason the Royals are 64-4 in games they've led after six innnings. If the three maintain their sub-1.50 ERAs, the Royals will join the 1907 Chicago Cubs as the only teams in history with three pitchers with over 60 innings pitched with ERAs that low. (Fun facts: Those Cubs won the World Series, had a team ERA of 1.73, used only eight pitchers all year, and the three with sub-1.50 ERAs were all starters: Mordecai Brown had a 1.39 ERA over 233 innings, Carl Lundgren was 1.17 over 207 innings, and Jack Pfeister was 1.15 over 195 innings.)

Who's Not? Left fielder Alex Gordon is a lock for a Gold Glove award, but he's batting only .188 over the past 30 days, striking out in 27% of his plate appearances. Third baseman Mike Moustakis has a .211/.273/.244 slash line (the league average is .249/.309/.380) and DH Billy Butler has barely been better at .219/.286/.281.

If Duffy's not right, the No. 4 postseason starter will be Jason Vargas, who's been bad (6.46 ERA) over the past 30 days. But we may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves talking about a No. 4 starter in the postseason anyway.
  
What's the Outlook? The Royals are one of the nice stories of this season, as they'll play in the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 1985. As of now, they'll host Oakland for a one-game play-in on Tuesday. However, they could win the division (they enter play today a game behind Detroit), their wild card opponent could be Seattle (which is two games behind Oakland), and they could lose the home field advantage in the play-in (if they lose their last two games and Oakland wins theirs).

Assuming the Royals are a wild-card team, a victory would take them to a best-of-five Divisional Series against the Angels, who have the best record in the American League and against whom the Royals split six games this year. They're not a good hitting team. They'll be the only American League postseason team to score a below-average number of runs (unless Seattle sneaks past Oakland). But with their solid starters and lockdown bullpen, they're well-positioned for the postseason, where good pitching beats good hitting, right? Except, as I showed yesterday, that's not the case. The Royals' long postseason drought has ended, but maybe not for long.