Next Up: The Chicago White Sox

Remember how the Pirates started their recent west coast trip against the Padres, a team that had made a flurry of offseason moves and had, to date, disappointed? Today they start a four-game series (two in Pittsburgh followed by two in Chicago) against the American League analogue, the Chicago White Sox.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the winter, the White Sox added free agent left fielder Melky Cabrera, 1B-DH Adam LaRoche, catcher Geovany Soto, utility player Emilio Bonifacio, and relievers David Robertson and Zach Duke, and traded for starting pitcher (and pending free agent) Jeff Samardzija. Following a 73-89 fourth place finish in 2014, pretty much everyone expected the White Sox to improve in 2015, possibly contending for a wild card or, perhaps, the American League Central title. Instead, they're 28-33, in last place, seven games behind the Royals and 5.5 games out of the wild card. At their current pace, they're headed to a 74-88 season, not quite the improvement over 2014 that people were expecting. Over the last 30 days, they're 13-16, the fifth-worst record in the American League. To date, they've scored the second-fewest runs in the league, 3.6 per game, and given up the third most, 4.5 per game.

What's Going Right? The rotation's been pretty good of late, with a third-best-in-the-league 3.51 ERA over the past 30 days. They've gotten a lot of strikeouts (22% of opposing batters, second most in the league) while keeping the ball in the park (0.7 homers per game, second fewest).  

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 4.52 ERA over the past 30 days, the worst in the American League. The offense has been bad over the last 30 days: .230 batting average (third worst in the league), .281 on base percentage (second worst), .343 slugging percentage (second worst).  

Who's Hot? Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face the White Sox's ace, Chris Sale, who's been ridiculous over his last six starts: 1.39 ERA, 68 strikeouts and nine walks over the last 45.1 innings, The White Sox haven't announced their starter Thursday, but it could be Samardzija, who's pitched better than his 4.89 ERA over the past 30 days. The Bucs will face rookie Carlos Rodon, who's compiled a 1.11 ERA over four starts in the past 30 days. Reliever Jake Petricka has emerged as the club's eighth inning reliever, with a 2.61 ERA over the past 30 days and eleven strikeouts and one unintentional walk over 10.1 innings. First baseman Jose Abreu has led White Sox hitters in just about everything over the last 30 days, with a .284/.324/.520 slash line, six homers, 20 RBI. 

Who's Not? The two free agent relievers have had a rough 30 days, as Duke's got a 6.75 ERA and Robertson's blown two saves (while getting six). The White Sox's starter Wednesday, John Danks, has a 5.20 ERA over the past month. White Sox second baseman have been unbelievably bad this year--.203 batting average and only five extra base hits, all doubles, so far--and current incumbent Carlos Sanchez is batting .128/.198/.167 over the past 30 days. Catcher Tyler Flowers has been barely better: .182/.217/.303.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates enter the series on a four-game winning streak, and they're missing the White Sox's ace starter. But let's keep in mind that those wins came against the two teams with the worst records in the majors, and they've scored only nine runs over their past six games. The White Sox aren't very good, but they have OK starters, so the Pirates' success will probably hinge on the bats getting going.

The Week That Was: American League Central

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Traded for: RP Dan Jennings, SP Jeff Samardzija, RP Michael Ynoa

Traded away: SP Chris Bassit, C Josh Phegley, 1B-3B Rangel Ravelo, SP Andre Rienzo, IF Marcus Semien

Free agents signed: OF Melky Cabrera, RP David Robertson

2015 Impact: The White Sox were 73-89 last season. That's not good. Only Boston, Houston, Minnesota, and Texas were worse. And now, they've got to be considered in contention in the not-all-that-great AL Central. What's somewhat amazing to me is that the White Sox don't have much a farm system, yet they were able to pull off prospects-for-players deals. Jennings is a lefty reliever with a 2.43 career ERA who's actually been better against right-handed hitters (.711 OPS) than lefties (.757), and Ynoa struck out 64 batters in 45.2 innings in A ball last season, but the key pickup is clearly Samardzija, who compiled a 2.99 ERA in 2014 in 33 starts split between the Cubs and Athletics. Jennings and former Yankees closer Robertson should help stabilize a bullpen that was second-to-last in the league in ERA and tied for third-most blown saves. Cabrera adds a good bat, with the caveats that he's 30 and last played more than 140 games in 2011.

2016+ Impact: The White Sox didn't give up a lot in these trades. If they can extend Samardzija, they win long-term as well as short-term. If they don't, the free agents they signed still probably tip the balance their way.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Traded for: 1B-OF Brandon Moss

Traded away: 2B Joe Wendle

Free agents signed: Nobody

2015 Impact: Yet another perplexing deal by the A's, who also traded Samardzija to the White Sox. Moss was an All-Star last year but he fell apart in the second half of the season (.173 batting average, .274 slugging percentage) due to a hip injury. He won't become a free agent until 2017. Wendle had a .725 OPS at AA this season, a little better than league average, but he's not young (24) and is blocked in Cleveland by Jason Kipnis. Assuming Moss's hip's OK, the Indians should be a better team in 2015 . . .

2016+ Impact: . . . and at least through 2016, after which Moss could walk.


DETROIT TIGERS
Traded for: OF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Shane Green, SP Alfredo Simon, SP Gabe Speier, RP Alex Wilson
Traded away: SP Jonathon Crawford, IF Domingo Leyba, SP Rick Porcello, SP Robbie Ray, SS Eugenio Suarez
Free agents signed: Nobody

2015 Impact: Like the White Sox, the TIgers were able to add major league talent for a bunch of youngsters from one of baseball's weaker farm system, with the exception of Porcello, who's good. They filled a hole in the outfield with Cespedes (who will be a free agent after this season) and they hope that Green and Simon (who'll also be a free agent at the end of 2015) can take Porcello's place. That's likely a tall order, but the Tigers still have Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander, and David Price in the rotation. They'll be better this year, I think, but not by a lot.

2016+ Impact: Assuming Cespedes plays elsewhere in 2016, this trade works against the Tigers long-term unless one of the pitchers the Tigers acquired blossoms into a strong starter. 

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: DH Kendrys Morales

2015 Impact: The Royals needed a DH, having lost Billy Butler to free agency, and they got Morales relatively cheaply (two years, $17 million). The thing is, he really stunk last year. His .218/.274/.338 slash line was that of a bad middle infielder, not a guy who's supposed to drive in runs. He's 31 and the Royals are hoping there's still gas in his tank. He was pretty decent the year before (.277/.336/.449 with 23 homers) in Seattle.

2016+ Impact: If Morales hits like a DH, the Royals will be fine for at least a couple years at the position.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Torii Hunter, Ervin Santana

2015 Impact: I already discussed the Hunter signing, sort of. He'll be OK if the Twins don't expect him to be the way he was when he played for the team in 1999-2007. As for Santana, I've never been a big fan of his, because he's been basically a league-average pitcher (ERA, adjusted for home park, 1% worse than the league average, to be precise) for his career. He's started at least 30 games per year for five straight seasons, so he's durable. One hopeful sign: the percentage of batters he struck out has risen from 17% in 2012 to 22% in 2014. The Twins pitching staff is notoriously unable to throw pitches that miss bats, so Santana could help.

2016+ Impact: Hunter seems set to retire after 2015, so if the Twins are going to benefif longer term, Santana's got to be decent.

Transactions Explained:What's a Qualifying Offer?

So, what's a Qualifying Offer? It's a one-year contract offer teams can make to their players who have filed for free agency. This year, a qualifying offer is $15.3 million for the 2015 season.

Why would teams offer that much money for one year? Two reasons. First, the best free agents are worth at least that much. Second, and more importantly, if the player rejects the qualifying offer, the team offering it gets compensation, and the team signing the player gets a penalty.

What's the compensation? If a team offers a player a qualifying offer and the player rejects it, the team gets an extra draft pick after the first round of the amateur draft in June. The extra picks are allocated in reverse order of standing during the prior season.

What's the penalty? A team signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer forfeits its first draft choice in the June amateur draft. One exception: The first ten picks in the draft are "protected" and don't get forfeited. Take, for example, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, one of the stars of the Giants' World Series run. He's a free agent. The Giants made him a qualifying offer. Sandoval will reject it, figuring, correctly, that he'll be able to get both more years and more dollars per year than a one-year, $15.3 million deal. If he signs with another team, that team will forfeit its first-round pick, unless it's one of the ten worst teams in baseball last year: the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Twins, Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, White Sox, and Reds. Those teams will forfeit their second-highest draft pick instead. (If you're thinking, "That's a windfall for the Red Sox, a high-payroll team likely to pursue big-name free agents, because they won't have to give up their first draft pick," you're right.) If a team signs more than one player who rejected a qualifying offer, it'll give up its next-highest draft pick. 

How onerous is that penalty? It depends on the player. The Mariners didn't think about the penalty when they signed Robinson Cano, the best player in last year's free agent class. Losing a draft pick won't stop a team from pursuing Sandoval, or Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer, or Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez. At the lower end of players receiving qualifying offers, though, relinquishing a draft pick can result in teams being unwilling to sign a player. Last year, former Mariners DH Kendrys Morales and former Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew received and rejected qualifying offers and couldn't find anyone to take them. Drew eventually re-signed with the Red Sox in May (there are not penalties or compensation when a free agent re-signs with his original team), and Morales signed with the Twins on June 8 (after the amateur draft, so there was no penalty). It seems pretty clear that two other players who rejected qualifying offers, former Royals starter Ervin Santana and former Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, who signed with Atlanta and Baltimore, respectively, had problems getting a contract due to the draft pick they cost their new teams.

Why is there a penalty? Because baseball wants to compensate teams that lose star players to free agency. This isn't a new idea. Prior to the most recent collective bargaining agreement between the owners and the players, which went into effect in 2012, free agents were assigned a letter grade of A, B, or none, and teams losing the free agents received draft pick compensation based on the grade. The calculation of the grades was pretty flawed, though, and the owners and the union decided to go with the qualifying offer system, which is more market-based.

How did they come up with the $15.3 million figure? It's the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. It gets recalculated every year. Last year it was $14.1 million, the year before $13.3 million.

Are there problems with the system? CJ Nitkowski wrote a nice piece describing them. The most glaring are how they screw players at the bottom of the spectrum, like Drew and Morales and Santana and Cruz last year. There's also a huge loophole: Players who are traded during the last year of their contract aren't subject to qualifying offers or compensation. The two most prominent free agent pitchers this year are Detroit's Max Scherzer and Oakland's Jon Lester. Scherzer spent all of last year with the Tigers, so the Tigers made him a qualifying offer. If he signs with another team, the Tigers will get a supplemental draft pick and the team signing him will lose its first pick. Lester was traded from the Red Sox to the A's at the trade deadline, so Oakland couldn't extend him a qualifying offer and won't receive an extra pick if they lose him. The team signing him won't lose its draft pick. Nitkowski describes some other issues as well.

How often do players accept qualifying offers? It hasn't happened yet. Every player who's received a qualifying offer has rejected it since the system was implemented in 2012. That could change this year, based on the experience of Drew and Morales last year. A lot of folks think Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who turns 36 next March and played only 49 games last year due to injuries, may become the first player to accept a qualifying offer.

Who's received qualifying offers? Twelve players: Detroit's Scherzer and DH Victor Martinez, Pittsburgh's catcher Russell Martin and pitcher Francisco Liriano, Kansas City's James Shields, the Yankees' David Robertson, the Blue Jays' Melky Cabrera, the Dodgers' Ramirez, the Giants' Sandoval, the Rockies' Cuddyer, and, for the second year in a row the Orioles' Cruz and the Braves' Santana. 

When do the players have to let the team know? The players who received qualifying offers were notified Monday and they have a week to respond. So by the end of business on Monday, November 10, they have to make a decision.

What happens if they reject the offer? They become free agents, able to sign with any team (subject to the compensation for their former team and penalty for their signing team) described above.

Are the parties happy with the system? Players understandably don't like any system that reduces their value, and attaching a penalty to signing a player reduces their value. Owners like getting compensated for losing players. So that's the impasse, and the qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to bridge it. The examples last year of Drew and Morales, and to a lesser degree Santana and Cruz, illustrate some of the problems of the system, as is the loophole that will enable the team signing Lester to avoid any penalty. Expect these and other issues to be modified the next time the players and owners negotiate their collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through December 1, 2016.

Things I Didn't Know: AL East

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

I started with the National League (here, here, and here), the AL West, and the AL Central. So this is it.

Boston Red Sox, 97-65: Maybe it's me, but the Red Sox going from worst to first last season didn't get all the fanfare it might've. Probably nobody really believed it was a last place club to start out with. 

What changed? Well, when you score 119 more runs and give up 150 fewer from one season to the next, good things happen. But what caused those improvements? Let me point to two less obvious things. On offense, the team had 153 more walks, almost one per game, going from second-to-last in the AL to second. Only two players on the 2012 team got 40 walks. In 2013, there were eight. That's a lot of baserunners. As for pitching, it was a story of the starters, whose ERA fell from 5.19 in 2012 to 3.70 in 2013, largely because of a lot more strikeouts (18% higher rate of strikeouts per plate appearance) and a lot fewer home runs (21% lower rate per batter). 

Tampa Bay Rays, 92-71: The Rays play their home games at Tropicana Field, a pitchers' park. Even though they had a decent offense last year, as evidenced by their sixth-best OPS in the league in road games, they scored only a league-average 4.3 runs per game. That meant their pitchers had to rely on limited run support. In games in which the offense supplied scored 3-5 runs, the average American League team went 21-18 with a 3.99 ERA. The Rays pitchers flourished, leading the league with a 32-12 record and a 2.77 ERA. The next best team, the Red Sox, had a winning percentage 127 points lower and an ERA 0.62 runs higher when receiving 3-5 runs of support.

New York Yankees, 85-77: As I pointed out in my NL West comment about the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team's performance in games decided by one run is usually unstable. Most teams win about half of such games, and a team that's an outlier, either by winning a lot of them or losing a lot of them, is more typically a beneficiary or victim of luck than anything else. Teams with a great record in one-run games generally do worse in those games the next year, and teams that have a really bad record in one-run games usually improve. The Yankees were 30-16 in one-run games last year, the best record in the American League. They are likely to do worse this year in one-run games, regardless of all the free agents they signed over the winter.

Baltimore Orioles, 85-77: Skeptical about my Yankees comment? Just look at the Orioles. In 2012, somewhat famously, they had a 29-9 record in one-run games, the best in the majors. Some pointed to the team's strong bullpen and winning attitude, while detractors attributed it to luck. The skeptics won out, as last year, the team's one-run record swung to 20-31, the worst in the league. (Actually, the Astros, at 18-36 were worse, but given that their winning percentage in one-run games, .333, was better than their record in other games, .306, you can't really say they were unlucky.) If the O's can split the difference and play .500 ball in one-run games this year, they'll have a better record, if not a better narrative.

Toronto Blue Jays, 74-88: The Jays were probably the most disappointing team in the league last year. After big moves in the offseason to add Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and defending NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, they were picked by some to win the division. Instead, they improved by only one game from 2012, finishing in last with a 74-88 record, done in by defense (fourth-most errors in the league), pitching (third-most runs allowed), and injuries. Only the offense, which scored more runs per game (4.40) than average (4.33), was OK.

Except at second base. The worst-hitting position in the American League was Toronto's second base. Blue Jays keystoners managed just a .216/.258/.297 slash line. How bad is that? Three pitchers (minimum 50 plate appearances) had a higher batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.