Qualifying Offers, 2015

I'm going to update my post on this topic from last year. It explains this topic, which comes up every year at this time.

So, what's a Qualifying Offer? It's a one-year contract offer teams can make to their players who have filed for free agency. This year, a qualifying offer is $15.8 million for the 2016 season.

Why would teams offer that much money for one year? Two reasons. First, the best free agents are worth at least that much. Second, and more importantly, if the player rejects the qualifying offer, the team offering it gets compensation, and the team signing the player gets a penalty.

What's the compensation? If a team offers a player a qualifying offer and the player rejects it, the team gets an extra draft pick between the first round and second rounds of the amateur draft in June. The extra picks (called "sandwich picks") are allocated in reverse order of standing during the prior season.

What's the penalty? A team signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer forfeits its first draft choice in the June amateur draft. One exception: The first ten picks in the draft are "protected" and don't get forfeited. The teams with the worst ten records last season--the Phillies, Reds, Braves, A's, Rockies, Brewers, Marlins, Padres, Tigers and Mariners--won't lose their first round draft choice if they sign a player who received a qualifying offer. Instead, they'll give up their second-highest round draft pick instead. If a team signs more than one player who received a qualifying offer, it'll give up its next-highest draft pick. 

How onerous is that penalty? It depends on the player. The Nationals didn't think about the penalty when they signed Max Scherzer, arguably the best player in last year's free agent class. Losing a draft pick won't stop a team from pursuing a big star like Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke or Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward. At the lower end of players receiving qualifying offers, though, relinquishing a draft pick can result in teams being unwilling to sign a player. After the 2013 season, former Mariners DH Kendrys Morales and former Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew received and rejected qualifying offers and couldn't find anyone to take them. Drew eventually re-signed with the Red Sox in May (there are not penalties or compensation when a free agent re-signs with his original team), and Morales signed with the Twins on June 8 (after the amateur draft, so there was no penalty). Both those players were pretty obviously screwed out of money by the draft pick penalty.

Why is there a penalty? In part it's because baseball wants to compensate teams that lose star players to free agency. But let's be clear: The sandwich pick that the teams receive for losing a player to whom they made a qualifying offer is their compensation. The loss of a draft pick only hurts the signing team. It doesn't help the team losing the player. By penalizing the signing team, it hurts the player, because it reduces his value. It ultimately serves to reduce free agent compensation.

How did they come up with the $15.8 million figure? It's the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. It gets recalculated every year. Last year it was $15.3 million, the year before $14.1 million.

Are there problems with the system? CJ Nitkowski wrote a nice piece describing them last year. The most glaring are how they screw players at the bottom of the spectrum. There's also a huge loophole: Players who are traded during the last year of their contract aren't subject to qualifying offers or compensation. They include Blue Jays pitcher David Price, Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Royals pitcher Johnny Cueto and infielder-outfielder Ben Zobrist, Giants pitcher Mike Leake, and Astros pitcher Scott Kazmir. The two top pitchers in this year's free agent class are Price and Greinke. By virtue of being traded last year from Detroit to Toronto, the team signing Price avoids a draft pick penalty that the team signing Greinke will have to pay.

How often do players accept qualifying offers? It hasn't happened yet. Every player who's received a qualifying offer has rejected it since the system was implemented in 2012. That could change this year, as there were a record 20 players who received qualifying offers compared to twelve last year and thirteen the year before. It would appear that Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy, who was 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA last year and 29-38 with a 4.25 ERA over the past three years, is a candidate to accept a qualifying offer. However, a lot of analysts expect nobody to accept a qualifying offer, given players' preference for multi-year contracts rather than a one-year deal, even for $15.8 million.

Who's received qualifying offers? The twenty players are, by team:

• Baltimore pitcher Wei-Yin Chen, first baseman Chris Davis, and catcher Matt Wieters
• Chicago Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler
• Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija
• Houston outfielder Colby Rasmus
• Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon
• Los Angeles pitchers Zack Greinke and Brett Anderson and second baseman Howie Kendrick
• New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy
• St. Louis right fielder Jason Heyward and pitcher John Lackey
• San Diego pitcher Ian Kennedy and left fielder Justin Upton
• Seattle pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma
• Texas pitcher Yovani Gallardo
• Toronto pitcher Marco Estrada
• Washington shortstop Ian Desmond and pitcher Jordan Zimmermann

When do the players have to let the team know? The players who received qualifying offers were notified last Friday and they have a week to respond. So by the end of business on Friday, November 13, they have to make a decision.

What happens if they reject the offer? They become free agents, able to sign with any team (subject to the compensation for their former team and penalty for their signing team) described above.

Are the parties happy with the system? Players understandably don't like any system that reduces their value, and attaching a penalty to signing a player reduces their value. Owners like getting compensated for losing players. So that's the impasse, and the qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to bridge it. I expect the qualifying offer system to be modified the next time the players and owners negotiate their collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through December 1, 2016.

Trailing 30 - August 16

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraphs' Leaders application. Comment for the week: We've fully lapped the All-Star break, so these numbers have more validity than they have of late. Given that, I think you could argue that the three most disappointing teams in the American League are the Red Sox, White Sox, and Mariners. Regarding the latter two, check out the third, fourth, and fifth worst ERAs in the league. Yes, it's just over the last 30 days, and yes, a lot of stuff's gone wrong for Chicago and Seattle. But those were, going into the season, three of the best pitchers in the majors.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Toronto         19- 8     1. Chicago         20- 8

2. Kansas City     18-12     2. St. Louis       19- 8    

3. New York        16-11     3. Philadelphia    17- 9         

4. Texas           16-11     4. San Francisco   17-10   

5. Baltimore       15-12     5. New York        16-12        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Minnesota        9-18     1. Colorado         8-19      

2. Boston          10-17        Miami            8-19       

   Oakland         10-17     3. Washington      10-19      

4. Detroit         12-16     4. Atlanta         10-17
5. Los Angeles     12-16     5. Cincinnati      12-17

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Hosmer, KC       .395     1. Peralta, Ari     .407  

2. Brantley, Cle    .380     2. Votto, Cin       .404      

3. Kinsler, Det     .374     3. Posey, SF        .381           

4. Cruz, Sea        .373     4. Pollock, Ari     .360          

5. Lindor, Cle      .364     5. LeMahieu, Col    .350       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Gose, Det        .154     1. Ahmed, Ari       .157          

2. Infante, KC      .158     2. Pederson, LA     .171       

3. Vogt, Oak        .169     3. Frazier, Cin     .194
4. Hunter, Min      .171     4. Dietrich, Mia    .209           

5. LaRoche, Chi     .176     5. Bryant, Cin      .212      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Brantley, Cle    .463     1. Votto, Cin       .559           

2. Eaton, Chi       .456     2. Goldschmidt, Ari .454         

3. Encarnacion, Tor .441     3. Peralta, Ari     .441         

4. Choo, Tex        .449     4. Fowler, Chi      .438          

5. Cruz, Sea        .448     5. Harper, Was      .433      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Davis, Bal       .814     1. Gonzalez, Col    .745        

2. Cruz, Sea        .809     2. Votto, Cin       .702     

3. Ortiz, Bos       .742     3. Peralta, Ari     .686       

4. Teixeira, NY     .667     4. Duda, NY         .640       

5. Donaldson, Tor   .663     5. Grichuk, SL      .625        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Davis, Bal         15     1. Gonzalez, Col      13
2. Cruz, Sea          14     2. Carpenter, SL       9        

3. Bautista, Tor      10        Duda, NY            9
   Donaldson, Tor     10     4. 4 with              8
   Ortiz, Bos         10     

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Hosmer, KC         27     1. Gonzalez, Col      24        

2. Davis, Bal         23        Votto, Cin         24     

   Eaton, Chi         23     3. Fowler, Chi        22
   Kinsler, Det       23        Pollock, Ari       22
5. 3 with             21        Schwarber, Chi     22

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Davis, Bal         36     1. Gonzalez, Col      31        

2. Ortiz, Bos         29     2. Peralta, Ari       24      

3. Donaldson, Tor     26     3. Bruce, Cin         22       

4. Hosmer, KC         25     4. 5 with             21
5. Cabrera, Chi       24        
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Dyson, KC          11     1. Pollock, Ari       10
2. Burns, Oak          7     2. Hamilton, Cin       9     

3. 5 with              6     3. Blackmon, Col       8   

                                LeMahieu, Col       8
                             5. 3 with              7
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Tolleson, Tex       9     1. Kimbrel, SD        10

2. Miller, NY          8        Rosenthal, SL      10

   Osuna, Tor          8     3. Rodriguez, Mil      9
4. Holland, KC         7        Rondon, Chi         9
5. 2 with              6     5. Melancon, Pit       8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Kazmir, Oak-Hou  1.05     1. Kershaw, LA      0.92

2. Dickey, Tor      1.49     2. Harvey, NY       1.23

3. Cueto, KC        1.80     3. Arrieta, Chi     1.56

4. Salazar, Cle     1.85     4. deGrom, NY       1.64

5. Gray, Oak        2.13     5. Nelson, Mil      1.99

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Gibson, Min      7.39     1. Cain, SF         6.75

2. Jimenez, Bal     7.39     2. Wisler, Atl      6.43

3. Samardzija, Chi  7.28     3. Locke, Pit       5.79

4. Sale, Chi        6.39     4. de la Rosa, Col  5.67

5. Hernandez, Sea   6.31     5. Rusin, Col       5.33

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Carrasco, Cle    0.64     1. Kershaw, LA      0.59

2. Kluber, Cle      0.85     2. Harvey, NY       0.71
3. Iwakuma, Sea     0.86     3. deGrom, NY       0.79

4. Bassitt, Oak     0.87     4. Greinke, LA      0.91
5. Salazar, Cle     0.88     5. Lester, Chi      0.93

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Archer, TB         47     1. Kershaw, LA        45     

   Price, Det-Tor     47     2. Scherzer, Was      44

3. Kluber, Cle        39     3. Arrieta, Chi       40

4. Iwakuma, Sea       38        deGrom, NY         40

5. Keuchel, Hou       37        Lester, Chi        40

Next Up: The Chicago White Sox

Remember how the Pirates started their recent west coast trip against the Padres, a team that had made a flurry of offseason moves and had, to date, disappointed? Today they start a four-game series (two in Pittsburgh followed by two in Chicago) against the American League analogue, the Chicago White Sox.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the winter, the White Sox added free agent left fielder Melky Cabrera, 1B-DH Adam LaRoche, catcher Geovany Soto, utility player Emilio Bonifacio, and relievers David Robertson and Zach Duke, and traded for starting pitcher (and pending free agent) Jeff Samardzija. Following a 73-89 fourth place finish in 2014, pretty much everyone expected the White Sox to improve in 2015, possibly contending for a wild card or, perhaps, the American League Central title. Instead, they're 28-33, in last place, seven games behind the Royals and 5.5 games out of the wild card. At their current pace, they're headed to a 74-88 season, not quite the improvement over 2014 that people were expecting. Over the last 30 days, they're 13-16, the fifth-worst record in the American League. To date, they've scored the second-fewest runs in the league, 3.6 per game, and given up the third most, 4.5 per game.

What's Going Right? The rotation's been pretty good of late, with a third-best-in-the-league 3.51 ERA over the past 30 days. They've gotten a lot of strikeouts (22% of opposing batters, second most in the league) while keeping the ball in the park (0.7 homers per game, second fewest).  

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 4.52 ERA over the past 30 days, the worst in the American League. The offense has been bad over the last 30 days: .230 batting average (third worst in the league), .281 on base percentage (second worst), .343 slugging percentage (second worst).  

Who's Hot? Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face the White Sox's ace, Chris Sale, who's been ridiculous over his last six starts: 1.39 ERA, 68 strikeouts and nine walks over the last 45.1 innings, The White Sox haven't announced their starter Thursday, but it could be Samardzija, who's pitched better than his 4.89 ERA over the past 30 days. The Bucs will face rookie Carlos Rodon, who's compiled a 1.11 ERA over four starts in the past 30 days. Reliever Jake Petricka has emerged as the club's eighth inning reliever, with a 2.61 ERA over the past 30 days and eleven strikeouts and one unintentional walk over 10.1 innings. First baseman Jose Abreu has led White Sox hitters in just about everything over the last 30 days, with a .284/.324/.520 slash line, six homers, 20 RBI. 

Who's Not? The two free agent relievers have had a rough 30 days, as Duke's got a 6.75 ERA and Robertson's blown two saves (while getting six). The White Sox's starter Wednesday, John Danks, has a 5.20 ERA over the past month. White Sox second baseman have been unbelievably bad this year--.203 batting average and only five extra base hits, all doubles, so far--and current incumbent Carlos Sanchez is batting .128/.198/.167 over the past 30 days. Catcher Tyler Flowers has been barely better: .182/.217/.303.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates enter the series on a four-game winning streak, and they're missing the White Sox's ace starter. But let's keep in mind that those wins came against the two teams with the worst records in the majors, and they've scored only nine runs over their past six games. The White Sox aren't very good, but they have OK starters, so the Pirates' success will probably hinge on the bats getting going.

The Week That Was: American League Central

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Traded for: RP Dan Jennings, SP Jeff Samardzija, RP Michael Ynoa

Traded away: SP Chris Bassit, C Josh Phegley, 1B-3B Rangel Ravelo, SP Andre Rienzo, IF Marcus Semien

Free agents signed: OF Melky Cabrera, RP David Robertson

2015 Impact: The White Sox were 73-89 last season. That's not good. Only Boston, Houston, Minnesota, and Texas were worse. And now, they've got to be considered in contention in the not-all-that-great AL Central. What's somewhat amazing to me is that the White Sox don't have much a farm system, yet they were able to pull off prospects-for-players deals. Jennings is a lefty reliever with a 2.43 career ERA who's actually been better against right-handed hitters (.711 OPS) than lefties (.757), and Ynoa struck out 64 batters in 45.2 innings in A ball last season, but the key pickup is clearly Samardzija, who compiled a 2.99 ERA in 2014 in 33 starts split between the Cubs and Athletics. Jennings and former Yankees closer Robertson should help stabilize a bullpen that was second-to-last in the league in ERA and tied for third-most blown saves. Cabrera adds a good bat, with the caveats that he's 30 and last played more than 140 games in 2011.

2016+ Impact: The White Sox didn't give up a lot in these trades. If they can extend Samardzija, they win long-term as well as short-term. If they don't, the free agents they signed still probably tip the balance their way.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Traded for: 1B-OF Brandon Moss

Traded away: 2B Joe Wendle

Free agents signed: Nobody

2015 Impact: Yet another perplexing deal by the A's, who also traded Samardzija to the White Sox. Moss was an All-Star last year but he fell apart in the second half of the season (.173 batting average, .274 slugging percentage) due to a hip injury. He won't become a free agent until 2017. Wendle had a .725 OPS at AA this season, a little better than league average, but he's not young (24) and is blocked in Cleveland by Jason Kipnis. Assuming Moss's hip's OK, the Indians should be a better team in 2015 . . .

2016+ Impact: . . . and at least through 2016, after which Moss could walk.


DETROIT TIGERS
Traded for: OF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Shane Green, SP Alfredo Simon, SP Gabe Speier, RP Alex Wilson
Traded away: SP Jonathon Crawford, IF Domingo Leyba, SP Rick Porcello, SP Robbie Ray, SS Eugenio Suarez
Free agents signed: Nobody

2015 Impact: Like the White Sox, the TIgers were able to add major league talent for a bunch of youngsters from one of baseball's weaker farm system, with the exception of Porcello, who's good. They filled a hole in the outfield with Cespedes (who will be a free agent after this season) and they hope that Green and Simon (who'll also be a free agent at the end of 2015) can take Porcello's place. That's likely a tall order, but the Tigers still have Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander, and David Price in the rotation. They'll be better this year, I think, but not by a lot.

2016+ Impact: Assuming Cespedes plays elsewhere in 2016, this trade works against the Tigers long-term unless one of the pitchers the Tigers acquired blossoms into a strong starter. 

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: DH Kendrys Morales

2015 Impact: The Royals needed a DH, having lost Billy Butler to free agency, and they got Morales relatively cheaply (two years, $17 million). The thing is, he really stunk last year. His .218/.274/.338 slash line was that of a bad middle infielder, not a guy who's supposed to drive in runs. He's 31 and the Royals are hoping there's still gas in his tank. He was pretty decent the year before (.277/.336/.449 with 23 homers) in Seattle.

2016+ Impact: If Morales hits like a DH, the Royals will be fine for at least a couple years at the position.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Torii Hunter, Ervin Santana

2015 Impact: I already discussed the Hunter signing, sort of. He'll be OK if the Twins don't expect him to be the way he was when he played for the team in 1999-2007. As for Santana, I've never been a big fan of his, because he's been basically a league-average pitcher (ERA, adjusted for home park, 1% worse than the league average, to be precise) for his career. He's started at least 30 games per year for five straight seasons, so he's durable. One hopeful sign: the percentage of batters he struck out has risen from 17% in 2012 to 22% in 2014. The Twins pitching staff is notoriously unable to throw pitches that miss bats, so Santana could help.

2016+ Impact: Hunter seems set to retire after 2015, so if the Twins are going to benefif longer term, Santana's got to be decent.

The Inscrutable Billy Beane

In my day job as an financial analyst, I followed publicly-traded companies. A big part of the job was analyzing the various moves they made. Often, this pretty easy and, in some ways, rote. Sometimes, it was more complex. And sometimes it really defied explanation. A company would make an acquisition, or get into a new line of business, or do some sort of restructuring, and it just didn't make sense. Investors would call me and say, "Can you figure out the rationale here?" Sometimes, I had to answer "No." However, in some cases (certainly not all), when I knew and respected management, I'd add, "But [name of CEO] is smarter than I am." I'm not saying you'd give the executive a free pass, but my feeling was that if one of these companies did something that didn't seem to make sense, there was a good chance, maybe better than good, that I was missing something because I didn't have the CEO's vision.


Billy Beane has been the Oakland Athletics' general manager since 1997. He's famous because of Michael Lewis's book Moneyball, which came out in 2003, and the movie by the same name starring Brad Pitt in 2011. The book and the movie celebrate how the A's, under his tenure, have remained competitive despite a shoestring budget. 

It wasn't always that way. In 1991, the A's had the highest payroll among the 28 major league teams ($37 million) and drew the fourth-most fans (2.7 million). Since Beane came on board, though, the team's payroll has averaged 24th in the 30-team league, and the team barely drew 2 million in 2014. Nonetheless, they've been competitive. In the 15 seasons beginning in 2000, the A's have been to the postseason eight times and have had only four losing seasons. Their .545 winning percentage during that span trails only the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox, and Angels.

That's why I don't hesitate to say that Billy Beane is smarter than I am. Only eleven teams have had a winning record over the past 15 years, and of those eleven, the A's and the Twins are the only ones with below-average payrolls. (And the Twins have lost 92 or more games in each of the past four seasons.)

All that being said...I don't understand what the the A's are doing with their roster. Let's go back to July. I'm going to list their major moves.

• July 5: Traded outfielder Billy McKinney (minors), shortstop Addison Russell (minors), pitcher Dan Straily and player to be named to the Chicago Cubs. Received pitcher Jason Hammel and pitcher Jeff Samardzija. This was a move to try to take the team over the top. The A's at that point were 53-33, the best record in baseball, but only 3.5 ahead of the hard-charging Angels. Hammel, 31 at the time and in the last year of his contract, was having the best year of his career, 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA. Samardzija, 29 and due to become a free agent in 2016, had a sparkling 2.83 ERA but only a 2-7 record due to lousy run support. Russell was the key to the deal for the Cubs. The 20 year old minor league shortstop is regarded as one of the ten top prospects in baseball.
• July 31: Traded outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and 2015 competitive balance round B pick to the Boston Red Sox. Received outfielder Jonny Gomes, pitcher Jon Lester and cash. More of the same. The A's, at 66-41, still had the best record in baseball, though they were now only 2.5 ahead of the Angels. They traded their left fielder, Cespedes, for two players entering free agency after the season: the 33 year old Gomes, who'd had a good year for the A's in 2012 but was now struggling with a .234 batting average, and Lester, 30, one of the two top left-handed starters in the American League.
• August 24: Purchased catcher Geovany Soto from the Texas Rangers. Soto, 31, has become injury-prone (the last time he played over 100 games was 2011) but he's skilled defensively, and the A's needed catching help, with catcher John Jaso sidelined with a concussion.
• August 31: Traded pitcher Nolan Sanburn (minors) to the Chicago White Sox. Received DH Adam Dunn and cash. Dunn, 34 at the time, was in the last year of a four-year contract he'd signed with Chicago and rumored to be likely to retire after the season (which he did). He was added in a bid to add offense, as in the month since the Lester trade, the A's had collapsed, trailing the Angels by four games when this deal was announced.

Let's take stock of Beane's moves to that point. All of them were an attempt to get the A's to the World Series. Of the players added--Hammel, Samardzija, Gomes, Lester, Soto, and Dunn--only Samardzija remains with the club. The others are free agents and likely to go elsewhere, except Dunn, who's retired. As for the players surrendered, Russell remains a blue-chip prospect, while Cespedes is entering the last year of his contract (he'll be a free agent in 2016) and, it appears, likely to be traded by Boston. 

Given the results for Oakland, one could consider Beane's moves failures. They didn't make it to the Series. They stumbled to the wild card game, finishing 10 games behind the Angels and only one ahead of the Mariners for the second wild card spot. They were eliminated in that game, a wild 12-inning 9-8 loss to the Royals in which they coughed up leads of 2-0 in the first, 7-3 in the sixth, and 8-7 in the twelfth.

But I'd submit that the game turned on a botched play in the first inning. With two outs, Royals DH Billy Butler singled, moving first baseman Eric Hosmer to third, and bringing up the Royals' best hitter, left fielder Alex Gordon. Butler is one of the slowest players in baseball, and Hosmer's nothing special on the basepaths, so it was clearly a situation for the runners to stay put and see whether Gordon could drive in Hosmer to tie the game at two. Instead, on an 0-2 count to Gordon, Butler took off for second before the pitch was thrown. Lester, pitching for the A's, fired to shortstop Jed Lowrie (another free agent unlikely to return to the A's, by the way). Caught in a rundown, Butler turned back to first, and Lowrie threw to first baseman Stephen Vogt. But then Hosmer broke for home, and Vogt threw him out, with Soto applying the tag. Hosmer barreled into Soto, who injured his thumb on the play, forcing the A's to lift him in the third in favor of Derek Norris, who doesn't have Soto's arm. The Royals wound up stealing six bases on Norris, paving the way to their victory. Had Soto stayed in the game, Kansas City likely wouldn't have been able to run wild, likely leading to a different outcome. That busted play in the first--a freak result of a really bad call by manager Ned Yost; who does a delayed double steal with two slow runners and your best hitter at the plate?--ended the A's season, at least from my perspective. Can't blame that on Beane.

Anyway, so now the A's face 2015 without a lot of the players that brought them within a fluke injury on a stupid play of a Divisional Series against the Angels. Here's what they've done since, again ignoring the minor moves:

• November 19: Signed DH Billy Butler as a free agent. Well, that's one way to keep him from making dopey stolen base attempts...Butler is 28. The A's signed him to a three-year, $30 million contract. It's a bit of a headscratcher, as Butler's been in a pretty steep decline since a career year in 2012:

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP
2012	26	161	679	614	72	192	32	1	29	107	2	1	54	111	.313	.373	.510	.882	138	313	20
2013	27	162	668	582	62	168	27	0	15	82	0	0	79	102	.289	.374	.412	.787	116	240	28
2014	28	151	603	549	57	149	32	0	9	66	0	0	41	96	.271	.323	.379	.702	95	208	21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/2/2014.
Remember, OPS+ is OPS adjusted for home park; Butler's 95 last year means he was 5% worse than the average American League hitter. Butler's moving from a ballpark, Kaufman Stadium, that suppressed homers for right-handed batters (per the 2015 Bill James Baseball Handbook) by 8% over the past three years to O.co Coliseum, which suppresses them by 10%. No favors there.
• November 23: Purchased first baseman Ike Davis from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Another guy whose best year was 2012 (when he hit 32 homers for the Mets), Davis, who earned $3.5 million last year, is eligible for arbitration this year, so he shouldn't be too expensive. (UPDATE: He signed for $3.8 million on December 2.) The thing is, the A's already have an arbitration-eligible lefty-swinging first baseman, Brandon Moss. Presumably, he gets moved to the outfield, where he played 84 games at the corners last year, or traded. (UPDATE: Oakland traded Moss to Cleveland on December 8.) Last year, Davis was traded from the Mets, who play in a park that's OK for left-handed power hitters, to the Pirates, whose PNC Park smothers homers by lefties. But O.co Coliseum does too, so he gains nothing from the change of home field. Davis compiled a .722 OPS for the Mets and Pirates last year, giving him an OPS+ of 105, 5% better than the average National League hitter.
• November 28: Traded third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received shortstop Franklin Barreto (minors), pitcher Kendall Graveman, second/third baseman Brett Lawrie and pitcher Sean Nolin. And everyone's head exploded. I heard someone, I can't remember who, say on Sirius/XM Radio that the A's have traded away their three best position players (Russell, Cespedes, and now Donaldson) over five months, and there's truth to that. Donaldson finished fourth in the American League MVP vote in 2013 and eighth in 2014. He hits for power (68 doubles and 53 home runs over the past two years), has good plate discipline (76 walks in each of 2013 and 2014) and won the Fielding Bible Award at third this year. Plus, he won't be a free agent until 2019, so while he'll get a big raise from the major league minimum of $500,000 he earned in 2014 as he enters arbitration, he's under team control for four more years. In return, the A's received a highly-regarded but young (18 years old) prospect in Barreto, a pair of pitchers with seven innings of big-league service between them, and an infielder who's cooled off considerably in 2013-14 (.716 OPS, 97 OPS+) after a hot start to his career in 2011-2012 (.781 OPS, 111 OPS+) as he's struggled to stay in the lineup (average 88 games played in each of the past two years). 

Okay, I can understand Butler and Davis if the A's are still in it to win it. Even last year's Butler is a big upgrade over what the A's trotted out at DH last season (.215/.294/.343 slash line, .637 OPS that was second lowest in the league). He can't run and he's pretty useless in the field (though he did start 35 games at first last year, his most since 2010), but he's an improvement. Davis drove Mets fans crazy with the gulf between his perceived potential and his performance, but he's been an above-average hitter every year of his career except 2013. Maybe you try to get younger at those positions if you're rebuilding, but you can do worse with Butler at DH (as the A's did last year) or Davis at first (the A's again: .230/.303/.381 slash line in 2014 vs. .233/.344/.378 for Davis) as a contender, provided you've got pop elsewhere in the lineup.

But then the A's traded the major source of that pop. Donaldson led the team last year in at bats, hits, runs, RBI, doubles, homers, walks, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Plus, for the budget-conscious A's, he had four years of team control remaining before free agency (though he's likely to get expensive through arbitration). Maybe the A's think that moving Lawrie away from Toronto's Rogers Centre's artificial turf will help keep him in the lineup, and that'll help return him to his 2011-2012 form. Here's a comparison of Donaldson and Lawrie, 2011-12 and 2012-13:

Player	Years	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Donaldson	2011-2	75	274	34	66	16	0	9	33	4	1	14	61	.241	.289	.398	.687	91
Lawrie	2011-2	168	644	99	179	34	7	20	73	20	9	49	117	.278	.336	.446	.781	111
Donaldson	2013-4	316	1187	183	329	68	5	53	191	13	2	152	240	.277	.363	.477	.840	135
Lawrie	2013-4	177	660	68	166	27	3	23	84	9	5	46	117	.252	.310	.406	.716	97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 12/2/2014.

And I'm leaving out one key detail, the only one that in my mind could make this trade work out a lot better than it looks on paper: Age. Lawrie turns 25 in January. Donaldson is 29 next week. He is older than everybody the A's have added since the season ended: everyone in the Blue Jays trade, Davis, and Butler. Four years is a big difference. In terms of peak, Donaldson's unlikely to get much better than he is now and is more likely to get worse than get better. Lawrie, by contrast, is entering what should be his prime years, assuming he can stay healthy. Now, there's a good chance that Donaldson's decline could be better than Lawrie's prime. That OPS gap of 124 points over the past two years leaves plenty of room for Donaldson to remain the better hitter as the calendar affects the two differently. And Rogers Centre's the easiest American League part for right-handed hitters to go deep, a benefit going forward for Donaldson and that Lawrie will no longer enjoy. But a return of the pre-2013 Lawrie could make the trade a lot more even. Then, if either of Graveman or Nolin pan out, and Barreto arrives in a few years and makes everybody forget Addison Russell, the trade will work in the A's favor.

There are a lot of ifs there. And strategically, it represents a change from the win-now strategy implied by the Samardzija, Lester, and, arguably, Butler and Davis deals to a build-for-the-future stance. Beane probably isn't done yet, and he's got his track record in his favor. There are those (yes, smarter than I) who like the trade. But I have a hard time justifying the return he got on one of the most valuable properties in baseball, and I have a harder discerning the A's strategy going forward.

But then, Billy Beane's smarter than I am.