Trailing 30 - Father's Day

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: The American League East has been knocked, with some justification, for no longer being the powerhouse it was in recent years. But as I write this, every team but Boston has a winning record, and over the past month, three of the teams have the second, third, and fourth best record in the American League over the past month. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Texas           19- 9     1. Pittsburgh      21- 7

2. Toronto         18- 9     2. St. Louis       18- 9    

3. Tampa Bay       17-11     3. San Francisco   15-14         

4. New York        16-11     4. Miami, Arizona  14-14   

5. Oakland         16-12        Chicago         13-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Detroit          9-17     1. Philadelphia     5-22      

2. Boston          11-18     2. Milwaukee       10-18       

   Chicago         11-18     3. New York        12-16      

4. Houston         13-15        Washington      12-16
5. Los Angeles     14-14     5. Colorado        14-16

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Kipnis, Cle      .374     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .412        

2. Springer, Hou    .360     2. Harper, Was      .369      

3. Butler, TB       .353     3. McCutchen, Pit   .353           

4. Cabrera, Det     .352     4. Tulowitzski, Col .347          

5. Pedroia, Bos     .345     5. Cervelli, Pit    .347       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Valbuena, Hou    .140     1. Galvis, Phi      .165          

2. Castellanos, Det .176     2. Bour, Mia        .182       

   Infante, KC      .176     3. Pagan, SF        .184
4. Miller, Sea      .177     4. Desmond, Was     .188           

5. Drew, NY         .180     5. Utley, Phi       .190      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Kipnis, Cle      .462     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .551           

2. Cabrera, Det     .452     2. Harper, Was      .485          

3. Holt, Bos        .441     3. Cervelli, Pit    .443         

4. Rodriguez, NY    .439     4. Carpenter, SL    .423          

5. Bautista, Tor    .438     5. Votto, Cin       .421      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .725     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .753        

2. Trout, LA        .607     2. Frazier, Cin     .735     

3. Cabrera, Det     .591     3. Harper, Was      .726       

4. Bautista, Tor    .586     4. Stanton, Mia     .717       

5. McCann, NY       .579     5. Votto, Cin       .635        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         13     1. Stanton, Mia       13
2. Donaldson, Tor      8     2. Frazier, Cin       10        

   Machado, Bal        8     3. Arenado, Col        9
   Souza, TB           8        Goldschmidt, Ari    9
5. 2 with              7     5. 2 with              8
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Donaldson, Tor     24     1. Frazier, Cin       23        

   Machado, Bal       24     2. LeMahieu, Col      22     

   Pujols, LA         24     3. Arenado, Col       21
4. Dozier, Min        23     4. 3 with             20
   Gardner, NY        23        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         27     1. Arenado, Col       33        

2. Fielder, Tex       24     2. Stanton, Mia       24      

3. Vogt, Oak          21     3. Frazier, Cin       23       

4. 4 with             20        Goldschmidt, Ari   23
                             5. 2 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak         11     1. Hamilton, Cin      14            

2. Ramirez, Chi        7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6        Gordon, Mia        11   

                             4. Revere, Phi         8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal       10     1. Melancon, Pit      14

2. Perkins, Min        8     2. Casilla, SF        10

   Tolleson, Tex       8     3. Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Clippard, Oak       7     4. 5 with              8

   Gregerson, Hou      7     

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gonzalez, Tex    0.90     1. Martinez, SL     1.06

2. Sale, Chi        1.19     2. Cole, Pit        1.06

3. Price, Det       1.19     3. Kershaw, LA      1.56

4. Gallardo, Tex    1.41     4. Garcia, SL       1.59

5. Archer, TB       1.78     5. Morton, Pit      1.62

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Porcello, Bos    7.50     1. Lohse, Mil       7.59

2. McHugh, Hou      6.43     2. Teheran, Atl     6.97

3. Sabathia, NY     6.39     3. de la Rosa, Ari  6.25

4. Lewis, Tex       5.40     4. Frias, LA        6.17

5. Weaver, LA       5.31     5. Nelson, Mil      6.06

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.64     1. Scherzer, Was    0.66

2. Gray, Oak        0.86     2. deGrom, NY       0.74
3. Buehrle, Tor     0.93     3. Kershaw, LA      0.75

4. Gallardo, Tex    0.94     4. Garcia, SL       0.79
5. Price, Det       0.96     5. Liriano, Pit     0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          75     1. Scherzer, Was      57     

2. Archer, TB         55     2. Liriano, Pit       53

3. Wilson, LA         45     3. Kershaw, LA        49

4. 3 with             41     4. Cole, Pit          44

                             5. Hamels, Phi        41

Strange but True, 2014

Every year at this time, Jayson Stark of ESPN does a list of "Strange but True" baseball facts from the past season. Here are this year's lists, one from the regular season and one from the postseason. I find it amazing that he comes up with this stuff. My favorite may be Sean Rodriguez's home batting average. No wonder the Rays traded him. Anyway, much fun on a slow day.

Getting Traded

This was a weird moment. The Tigers were playing a game against the White Sox at the trade deadline on Thursday. The Tigers completed a three-way trade with the Mariners and Rays just minutes before the 4 PM EDT deadline, with centerfielder Austin Jackson going to Seattle. The thing is, trades are official as soon as they're announced, and Jackson was, at that moment, playing center for Detroit. So Tigers manager Brad Ausmus had to pull him from the game, replacing him in center with Rajai Davis.

Davis was the Tigers' centerfielder for five seasons. Note that the last player he hugs in the dugout, pitcher Max Scherzer, was traded to the Tigers with Jackson in December 2009 in another Tigers three-way trade, this one involving the Yankees and Diamondbacks.

Hope Springs Eternal, Even When It Probably Shouldn't

Before the season started, both Baseball Prospectus and ESPN predicted this order of finish in the American League East:
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. New York
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

Here are the standings, as of this morning:

1. Baltimore

2. Toronto

    New York

4. Boston

5. Tampa Bay

(Technically, New York's ahead of Toronto on percentage points, but they're both four games out of first.)

I'm not picking on BP or ESPN, I'm just showing that the AL East has been a wild division this year. Generally considered the best division in baseball entering the season, its first place team has the worst record of the six divisional leaders, and all of the teams have glaring flaws.

Those flaws, it would seem, create an opportunity for the two worst teams in the division, Boston and Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay's won five in a row and are 16-5 over their last 21 games. The Red Sox are also on a five-game winning streak and have won nine of their last ten. The Rays are 47-53, eight games behind the Orioles. The Red Sox are 47-52, 7.5 games out. The two teams were generally thought to be the best in the division before the season. Is there time for the cream to rise?

Probably not. We're at about the 100 game mark for the 2014 season. I looked for teams with records below .500 after 100 games that also made the playoffs. It's an awfully short list:

• The 1973 New York Mets are the only team to make the postseason with a record worse than Boston's and Tampa Bay's. They were 44-56 after 100 games, then rallied to win a weak NL Eastern division with an 82-79 record. They were the only team above .500. They beat the Reds 3-2 in the NLCS and fell to Oakland in a tight World Series, 4 games to 3.
• A year later, the Pittsburgh Pirates were 48-52 after 100 games. They won the NL East with an 88-74 record but fell to the Dodgers in the NLCS, 3-1.
• The 1981 Kansas City Royals were 49-51 after 100 games and made the playoffs but it doesn't count, because 1981 was a strike-shortened season (Kansas City played only 103 games) and baseball employed a split-season method to determine the playoffs. The Royals made the postseason on the strength of a 30-23 record in the second half of the season.
• Three years later, the Royals were 48-52 after 100 games but won the AL West with an 84-78 record. They were swept in the ALCS by the eventual world champion Detroit Tigers.
• The next team to make the postseason despite a losing record after 100 games was the 2003 Minnesota Twins, who were 49-51. They went on a 41-21 tear the rest of the way to win the AL Central by four games, but were bounced out of the playoffs by the New York Yankees, 3-1.
• The 2006 Los Angeles Dodgers had the same record as the Rays after 100 games, 47-53. They ended the year 88-74, the same record as the San Diego Padres and the best in the NL West. The Padres won the season series, nine games to five, so they were the division champions. The Dodgers were the wild card team, and the New York Mets swept them in three games in the Divisional Series.
• Finally, the 2008 Dodgers, 49-51 after 100, won the NL West with an 84-78 record. They swept the Chicago Cubs in the divisional series and lost to the eventual world champion Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, four games to one.

Before the leagues split into divisions, no team with a losing record over the first 100 games made the postseason, which then was only the World Series. In the 45 years since, only six teams below .500 have made the playoffs. Of them, two lost in the Divisional Series, three lost their league's Championship Series, and only one--the 1973 Mets--made the World Series, which they lost. 

This isn't to say that Boston or Tampa Bay can't rally and win everything. If they make the postseason, it'll be against extremely long odds, and if they win the World Series, it'll be unprecedented. I'd be thinking of next year were I they.

Sweet Play of the Day - May 1

Two today because they're both fun. First, check out Joey Votto's reaction to Carlos Gomez's catch.



Next, maybe it's me, but doesn't Cesar Ramos look surprised to find the comebacker from Jackie Bradley in his glove? His teammate David Price seems to think so.

Last Night's Sweet Play

Tampa Bay's Desmond Jennings takes away extra bases from the Twins' Trevor Plouffe.

2014 Predictions: AL East

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East and the AL West and Central.

Boston Red Sox - 97-65 in 2013, 5.3 runs scored per game (1st in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (13th in MLB): The World Champions didn't add much over the offseason, though they are obviously a good team. They have two rookies (SS Xander Bogaerts and, as soon as Grady Sizemore gets hurt, CF Jackie Bradley) in the lineup and a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30 who are more likely to be worse than better compared to last year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more given up, 90-72.

Tampa Bay Rays - 92-71, 4.3 runs scored per game (11th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): Everybody likes the Rays, and with SP David Price still with the team despite rampant trade speculation, the strong starting rotation's intact. But outside of 2B Ben Zobrist, 3B Evan Longoria, and RF Wil Myers, I just don't see them scoring a lot, and Price, arbitration-eligible next year and a free agent in 2016, could still be traded. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed,  88-74.

New York Yankees - 85-77, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (15th in MLB): They added a ton of talent via free agency, but they lost the best second baseman in baseball, they're old, and they were lucky last year, compiling a league-best 30-16 record in one-run games. I think they'll be better, but not that much better, for Derek Jeter's farewell tour. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 87-75.

Baltimore Orioles - 85-77, 4.6 runs scored per game (5th in MLB), 4.4 runs allowed per game (22nd in MLB): In 2012, they had the best record in the league in one-run games. In 2013, they had one of the worst. If they can split the difference, they'll be better. They added free agents SP Ubaldo Jimenez and DH Nelson Cruz but otherwise this is the same team as last year's. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 85-77.

Toronto Blue Jays - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (27th in MLB): The Jays were last season's biggest disappointment, done in by underperformance and a plague of injuries. But here's the thing: they changed almost nothing. They're counting on better health, which is probably a good bet, and marked improvement from a lot of players, which probably isn't. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 78-84.

Things I Didn't Know: AL East

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

I started with the National League (here, here, and here), the AL West, and the AL Central. So this is it.

Boston Red Sox, 97-65: Maybe it's me, but the Red Sox going from worst to first last season didn't get all the fanfare it might've. Probably nobody really believed it was a last place club to start out with. 

What changed? Well, when you score 119 more runs and give up 150 fewer from one season to the next, good things happen. But what caused those improvements? Let me point to two less obvious things. On offense, the team had 153 more walks, almost one per game, going from second-to-last in the AL to second. Only two players on the 2012 team got 40 walks. In 2013, there were eight. That's a lot of baserunners. As for pitching, it was a story of the starters, whose ERA fell from 5.19 in 2012 to 3.70 in 2013, largely because of a lot more strikeouts (18% higher rate of strikeouts per plate appearance) and a lot fewer home runs (21% lower rate per batter). 

Tampa Bay Rays, 92-71: The Rays play their home games at Tropicana Field, a pitchers' park. Even though they had a decent offense last year, as evidenced by their sixth-best OPS in the league in road games, they scored only a league-average 4.3 runs per game. That meant their pitchers had to rely on limited run support. In games in which the offense supplied scored 3-5 runs, the average American League team went 21-18 with a 3.99 ERA. The Rays pitchers flourished, leading the league with a 32-12 record and a 2.77 ERA. The next best team, the Red Sox, had a winning percentage 127 points lower and an ERA 0.62 runs higher when receiving 3-5 runs of support.

New York Yankees, 85-77: As I pointed out in my NL West comment about the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team's performance in games decided by one run is usually unstable. Most teams win about half of such games, and a team that's an outlier, either by winning a lot of them or losing a lot of them, is more typically a beneficiary or victim of luck than anything else. Teams with a great record in one-run games generally do worse in those games the next year, and teams that have a really bad record in one-run games usually improve. The Yankees were 30-16 in one-run games last year, the best record in the American League. They are likely to do worse this year in one-run games, regardless of all the free agents they signed over the winter.

Baltimore Orioles, 85-77: Skeptical about my Yankees comment? Just look at the Orioles. In 2012, somewhat famously, they had a 29-9 record in one-run games, the best in the majors. Some pointed to the team's strong bullpen and winning attitude, while detractors attributed it to luck. The skeptics won out, as last year, the team's one-run record swung to 20-31, the worst in the league. (Actually, the Astros, at 18-36 were worse, but given that their winning percentage in one-run games, .333, was better than their record in other games, .306, you can't really say they were unlucky.) If the O's can split the difference and play .500 ball in one-run games this year, they'll have a better record, if not a better narrative.

Toronto Blue Jays, 74-88: The Jays were probably the most disappointing team in the league last year. After big moves in the offseason to add Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and defending NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, they were picked by some to win the division. Instead, they improved by only one game from 2012, finishing in last with a 74-88 record, done in by defense (fourth-most errors in the league), pitching (third-most runs allowed), and injuries. Only the offense, which scored more runs per game (4.40) than average (4.33), was OK.

Except at second base. The worst-hitting position in the American League was Toronto's second base. Blue Jays keystoners managed just a .216/.258/.297 slash line. How bad is that? Three pitchers (minimum 50 plate appearances) had a higher batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.

The Small-Market Lament

Fangraphs nails it.

No, St. Louis, you are not a small market. Not with the 11th highest payroll in all of baseball, you're not. 

Do You Need a Team for the Postseason?

Courtesy on Emma Span at Sports on Earth, here's a handy guide.

The Play-Ins: Buy Me Some Red Bull and Cracker Jack

Great point by Dave Cameron at Fangraphs: 

The rules surrounding the Wild Card Game rosters even incentivize a significant turn away from standard operating procedure. The 25 man roster that will be set for Tuesday’s contest can be completely overhauled for the division series, so Tuesday’s roster only has to play on Tuesday.

His piece focuses on the Pirates, but the point is that since the rules allow a team to set a completely new roster for the play-in, then another one for the divisional series, it makes sense to leave most starters off the one-game roster (since they won't be available anyway) load up on relief pitchers, and then pull your starter at absolutely the first sign of distress, or even before that. He sketches an optimal strategy for the Bucs that would entail seven pitchers. That's a lot of pitching changes, which will be filled by a lot of commercials, resulting in a lot of tired people showing up for work and school on Wednesday in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati (and a day later in Cleveland and Tampa).

On the Wild Cards

In the AL, Tampa Bay and Texas are tied, with Cleveland 0.5 back, Baltimore 2.5, New York 3, and Kansas City 3.5. The Rangers open a four-game series at Tampa Bay tonight. It's hard to see both of those teams holding on to the lead once the series is over, isn't it? Cleveland's got three against Kansas City starting tonight, the Orioles have three in Boston and the Yankees three in Toronto starting tomorrow. 

In the NL, the Nationals are 4.5 behind the Reds for the last wild card. That would seem to be a tough gap, but over the past 30 days, the Nationals are 20-8, the best record in the NL, while the Reds are 15-13. And the Reds do silly things like blow a 5-1 lead against the Brewers without bringing in their best reliever, Aroldis Chapman. Yes, I know, he pitched an inning and a third the night before, throwing 28 pitches, but that was also his first appearance in six days. The Reds are on the road this week, with three at New York and then three at Pittsburgh, while the Nats host the Braves for three and the Marlins for four. It's hard to see the Reds blowing a 4.5 game lead, but I'll bet you the Nationals make it interesting.