Snubs

You got a second? Open up another tab or window, pull up your favorite search engine, and type baseball all-star snubs 2015. You'll get a lot of hits! Just from perusing the search results, here are some of the players whose absence from the All-Star Game (at this point--there's still the Final Vote and the inevitable late injury substitutions):

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers pitcher
• Alex Rodriguez, Yankees DH
• Justin Turner, Dodgers third baseman
• Clay Buchholz, Red Sox pitcher
• Brian Dozier, Twins second baseman
• Brad Miller, Mariners shortstop
• Kolten Wong, Cardinals second baseman
• Brian McCann, Yankees catcher
• Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox shortstop

This isn't an exhaustive list. All I did was scroll through the first four pages of search results and pull names from the headlines. I didn't go into the many articles with lists of snubs. So there are undoubtedly more.

Now, Kershaw and Bogaerts could still make their respective teams via the Final Vote. But the other guys--yeah, the only way they're watching to All-Star Game is to score a ticket or tune into Fox next Tuesday.

My question is: How much of a snub is this, really?

I mean, there are guys who have money riding on this. Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, who's going to the game, gets $50,000 for appearing. So I could see him being disappointed--feeling snubbed seems a bit strong--if he hadn't been chosen. His teammate, second baseman Omar Infante, who isn't going, would've gotten a $250,000 bonus in each of 2016 and 2017. That's a big chunk of cash (his base salary is $7.75 million in 2016 and $8 million in 2017), but it's hard to call a guy who's got a .246 on base percentage (lowest in the majors among 164 batting title qualifiers) and .309 slugging percentage (fourth lowest) snubbed. So yeah, if I'm Dozier or Wong, and my contract pays me extra for going to the All-Star game, I'd probably be annoyed.

But most players? I wonder whether the fans and media mythologize the All-Star Game a bit. I would imagine a player's first All-Star Game is a thrill. You bring your parents, maybe your siblings, your wife or girlfriend, probably your kids. You rub shoulders with all the big names. You get this cool All-Star uniform that you throw into your duffel bag right after the game, not knowing that MLB would have washed and sent it to you anyway. You probably lift the All-Star insignia notepads and pens from the conference room. All that sort of thing.

Once you've done one, though...Take Andrew McCutchen. This'll be his fifth straight All-Star Game. Yes, it's nice to get the recognition and all, but from his point of view, twenty of his teammates get the full All-Star break, four days off next week to relax, hang out with their families, ice down sore muscles, catch the matinee of Terminator: Genisys, and go out for dinner at a reasonable hour, while he spends Monday and Tuesday on the field and with the press. For the fifth straight year Cutch's break will be abbreviated. 

Baseball players have a tough job. Yes, they're playing a game for a living, but they play it 6-7 days per week for six months. That's seven and half including spring training, eight and a half including the postseason. They put in long hours at the office, with most games not ending until after 10 PM, and if they get a day off, it's always a Monday or Thursday and never a Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Plus they're living out of a suitcase, on the road, half the time. I know that some of you are going to say, "Big deal, they're paid tons of money to do that," to which I'd reply, "I know, but that's not the point." I'm betting most of you would accept $10 million to step into the ring with Floyd Mayweather, but that doesn't mean his punches wouldn't hurt. Playing baseball pretty much every day for half the year, even if you love the game, is grueling. Think about the last time you had a big project at work that had you coming in over the weekend, then think how much you were dragging by the end of the next week. Then imagine that for 26 weeks. The four days of downtime that Pirates Neil Walker, Francisco Liriano, Tony Watson, Pedro Alvarez and sixteen other teammates will get has got to seem great to them. So yes, you could make a case for Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli making his first All-Star team this year. Among NL catchers with 250 or more plate appearances, he's second in batting average, first in on base percentage, and third in slugging percentage. He also ranks second in Baseball Prospectus's measure for pitch framing, i.e. the ability to get umpires to call pitches on the outer edges of the strike zone strikes instead of balls. So going the All-Star Game would be pretty sweet. But given that we're in early July and he's already 30 games away from setting a career high in games played, at the toughest position on the diamond, I've got to think four days off will be pretty sweet too.

Flyover: Boston Red Sox

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

After finishing last in their division in 2012, 26 games behind the first place Yankees, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2013. It that makes them a Cinderella team, the clock struck midnight this year, as they're in last place again. Their 59-67 record ties them with the Twins for third-worst in the American League. 

How Are They Doing Lately? On July 31, the Red Sox traded their ace starting pitcher, Jon Lester, and outfielder Jonny Gomes to the A's for left fielder Yoenis Cespedes. They also traded away No. 2 starter John Lackey. With Lester a free agent after the season, this move erased any question whether the Red Sox were throwing in the towel on 2014. Thus far in August, their 11-16 record is fifth-worst in the league (just ahead of the A's at 12-16, coincidentally). They've gotten there by way of a 4.29 ERA, fourth worst in the league, due largely to a terrible 5.38 ERA by their starters, second-worst. On offense, the team's batting .230 over the past 30 days, second worst in the league, with a second-worst .299 on base percentage and league-worst .336 slugging percentage. 

What's Going RIght? The bullpen's been pretty good. Red Sox relievers have made 94 appearances over the past 30 days, partly due to the struggles of the starters, but they've compiled a solid 2.57 ERA, fourth best in the league. They've probably been a little lucky, as both their .264 batting average on balls in play and 7.6% of fly balls leaving the park are far enough below league averages that they're unlikely to be sustained. Further, they've induced swings on only 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, third fewest in the league, violating the On The Field of Play mantra that it's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. So we could see some backsliding, particularly if the starters keep going just 5.70 innings per start, fourth-fewest in the league over the past month.

On offense, it's pretty hard to find bright spots over the past 30 days, but the Red Sox have had solid defense this year, with both traditional fielding metrics and advanced ones placing the team near the top of the pack in the American League. They've stolen 16 bases and been caught just once so far in August. Granted, that's not a lot of steals, but it's the highest success rate in the league. I'm reaching here.

What's Going Wrong? Oh, everything else. As noted above, the relievers have been good but probably lucky. The starters have been just bad: Lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate in the league over the past month, inability to throw strikes (48% of pitches in the strike zone, third-fewest in the league) or get strikes (swings on 25% of pitches outside the strike zone, second-fewest). Only two starters with over 20 innings pitched (Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa) have an ERA below 5.50, and both of them have walked way too many batters (5.8 per nine innings for Kelly, 4.8 for de la Rosa).

As noted above, the team's compiled the worst- or second-worst batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League over the past 30 days. Has that been partly due to bad luck? Not really: the .282 team batting average on balls in play trails the league average of .292, and that's not enough of a gap to say that the balls just haven't been falling in on a regular basis. They've struck out too much (22% of plate appearances, third-most in the league) and while they're walking a lot (8.4% of plate appearances, second most) they lack the power (19 homers, tied for third-fewest) to drive those walked runners home. 

Who's Hot? DH David Ortiz has a .342/.440/.603 slash line in August so far, ranking third in the league in batting and on base percentage and second in slugging. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia is having a subpar year for him but has been pretty good of late (.297/.333/.414).

The Red Sox's primary setup men are middle relievers Burke Badenhop, Tom Layne, Edward Mujica and Junichi Tazawa. Over the past 30 days, they've pitched in 48 innings, compiling a 1.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP (1.04 excluding intentional walks). They've given up only two homers, both by Tazawa. Another middle reliever, Alex Wilson has a 1.17 ERA and has allowed only ten baserunners in 15.1 innings.

Who's Not? Ortiz has been hot, and three other hitters--Pedroia, Cespedes, and outfielder Daniel Nava--have been OK. Everybody else has been bad. Catcher Christian Vazquez is batting .197 over the past 30 days, with just a .212 slugging percentage, as his production has consisted of 12 singles and a double. First baseman Mike Napoli's hitting .184. Third baseman Will Middlebrooks is batting .200 and has supplemented that batting average with little plate discipline (just four walks) and little power (five doubles, no other extra base hits). Outfielder Brock Holt has supplied no power, either (.289 slugging percentage). And rookie shortstop Xander Bogaerts has seemed lost at the plate, batting .101 with a .130 slugging percentage, a far cry from the remarkably poised 21-year-old who batted .296 with a .412 on base percentage and .481 slugging percentage in last year's postseason.

The most notably bad Red Sox starters of late are Allen Webster (7.28 ERA, more walks than strikeouts), Brandon Workman (7.47 ERA over three starts) and Clay Bucholz (5.50 ERA). Workman's batting average allowed on balls in play is .408, a ridiculously high number that suggests an element of bad luck. 

The notable exception from the list of successful Red Sox relievers above is closer Koji Uehara, who's compiled a 5.56 ERA over the past 30 days, with 16 hits allowed in 11.1 innings en route to two blown saves. He still has a 2.25 ERA on the year, but that compares to last year's otherworldly 1.09 and raises concerns that at age 39, he's nearing the end of the road. 

What's the Outlook? The Red Sox are playing for 2015. Probably the most important thing the team could accomplish in the remainder of the year would be to get youngsters Bogardts (age 21), Middlebrooks (age 25), and Vazquez (24) squared away for next year. This year's a last-place waste.

2014 Predictions: AL East

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East and the AL West and Central.

Boston Red Sox - 97-65 in 2013, 5.3 runs scored per game (1st in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (13th in MLB): The World Champions didn't add much over the offseason, though they are obviously a good team. They have two rookies (SS Xander Bogaerts and, as soon as Grady Sizemore gets hurt, CF Jackie Bradley) in the lineup and a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30 who are more likely to be worse than better compared to last year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more given up, 90-72.

Tampa Bay Rays - 92-71, 4.3 runs scored per game (11th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): Everybody likes the Rays, and with SP David Price still with the team despite rampant trade speculation, the strong starting rotation's intact. But outside of 2B Ben Zobrist, 3B Evan Longoria, and RF Wil Myers, I just don't see them scoring a lot, and Price, arbitration-eligible next year and a free agent in 2016, could still be traded. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed,  88-74.

New York Yankees - 85-77, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (15th in MLB): They added a ton of talent via free agency, but they lost the best second baseman in baseball, they're old, and they were lucky last year, compiling a league-best 30-16 record in one-run games. I think they'll be better, but not that much better, for Derek Jeter's farewell tour. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 87-75.

Baltimore Orioles - 85-77, 4.6 runs scored per game (5th in MLB), 4.4 runs allowed per game (22nd in MLB): In 2012, they had the best record in the league in one-run games. In 2013, they had one of the worst. If they can split the difference, they'll be better. They added free agents SP Ubaldo Jimenez and DH Nelson Cruz but otherwise this is the same team as last year's. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 85-77.

Toronto Blue Jays - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (27th in MLB): The Jays were last season's biggest disappointment, done in by underperformance and a plague of injuries. But here's the thing: they changed almost nothing. They're counting on better health, which is probably a good bet, and marked improvement from a lot of players, which probably isn't. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 78-84.