Pirates At the Trade Deadline

UPDATE, JULY 23: The Pirates have traded for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Friday, July 31 is Major League Baseball's trade deadline. That's not really true: It's the non-waiver trade deadline. After the 31st, teams can still trade (and they will), but traded player must clear waivers first.* So while there will still be trades after next Friday, there won't be as many, and they won't involve as many stars.

Every fan of a team with a hope of making the postseason wishes their team would make a trade by the deadline. The problem is, fans are usually unrealistic. I heard a Mets fan express hope that the Mets, who are starved for offense, would pursue Padres left fielder Justin Upton, who's a free agent after this season. The fan suggested the Mets could offer Jon Niese (who's arguably the team's No. 5 starter), Rafael Montero (who hasn't pitched since April due to a rotator cuff injury), Zack Wheeler (out for the year following Tommy John surgery), and Bartolo Colon (who is 42 and has a 6.00 ERA over his last ten starts). If you want a top player who's signed for a few years--say, Phillies starter Cole Hamels--you're going to have to give up top prospects or major league-ready farm talent. Even if you want a two-month rental, like Upton, the Padres have the option of keeping him, giving him a qualifying offer over the winter and, when he signs with another club, getting a draft pick after the first round next summer for him. So unless you're going to offer at least the equivalent of a second-round draft pick, you're not going to make a deal. If the Mets call the Padres and offer a No. 5 starter, a 42-year-old, and a couple injured guys to the Padres for Upton, the Padres are going to hang up the phone on them.

With that in mind, it's tough to do trades at this point in the season. The buyers are looking for the one or two players that can push them into the postseason or improve their chances of success when they're there. There aren't that many players like that around. Sellers are looking for a king's ransom of prospects. Teams aren't willing to give them up. So don't expect a flurry of deals.

For the Pirates, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to pursue pitching. Sure, Hamels or the White Sox's Jeff Samardzija or the Reds' Johnny Cueto would be great to have, but the latter two are free agents after the season, and besides, the Pirates are in good shape in their rotation. Any of those three pitchers would be an upgrade over Charlie Morton or Jeff Locke, but the Pirates are well-positioned to make the postseason with the rotation they have now. In the postseason, you need an ace (Gerrit Cole) to pitch a Wild Card game, but you really need only four starters anyway because of all the off days. I just don't see a lot of upside for the Bucs from adding a frontline starter.

Similarly, the Pirates' bullpen, with the second lowest ERA in the National League, isn't a source of weakness. I could see the merit of adding someone to give some of the relievers a breather--the Pirates have four of the 22 pitchers in the league with 43 or more appearances, the most in the league--but as I've pointed out, the relievers' pitch counts aren't particularly worrisome. I'd say that unless there's an injury we don't know about, the Pirates don't have a big need to add significant pitching help. The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Jonathan Papelbon would like to leave Philadelphia, but he's not the type of player the Pirates seem to need.

As I pointed out over the All-Star Break, the Pirates are very good at four positions (catcher, second base, left field, center field), OK at one (third base), and bad at three (first base, shortstop, right field). Let's look at the weaknesses:

• Shortstop: Jordy Mercer, probably out until September with a sprained knee, was having a lousy year, but that's mostly due to a terrible start:  .171/.225/.198 slash line through May 23. Since then, he's hit a respectable .290/.333/.395. I expect the Pirates to make do with Jung Ho Kang's bat and Pedro Florimon's glove at short until Mercer's healthy rather than pursue a trade.
• Right field: Yesterday, the Padres optioned third baseman Will Middlebrooks to AAA. Middlebrooks, you may recall, was a sensation when he was called up by the Red Sox in 2012. In 24 games in May that year, he batted .316 with six homers. In 23 games in June, he hit .288 with four homers, and in 18 July starts, he hit .294 with another three homers. So in his first three months, he had a .301/.331/.525 slash line, hitting a home run every 18 at bats. Since then, he's batted .212/.259/.364, with a homer every 28 at bats. It's looking a lot as if those first 236 at bats were a head fake, with the real Middlebrooks emerging in the 849 at bats since. That's the risk of reading too much into a young player's hot start.

The reason I'm telling you this about Middlebrooks is that Gregory Polanco started his career batting .306/.392/.435 over his first 21 games with a home run every 28 at bats. Since then, he's hit .227/.299/.329 with a homer every 73 at bats. His OPS of .628 since his hot start is similar to Middlebrooks's .625. So what do we believe, Polanco's first 85 at bats or the 516 since?

The Pirates could definitely seek an upgrade over Polanco, but there are two problems. First, he's not exactly like Middlebrooks. He was a year younger than Middlebrooks in his rookie year, and a more highly-touted prospect. He's a decent, if sometimes erratic, right fielder, while Middlebrooks is, depending on the fielding measure, around an average third baseman. Second, Polanco is one of only two left-handed batters in the Pirates lineup--three if you count switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker--and he's been solidly average (but not bad) against right-handed pitching (.258/.333/.382 slash line this year; the league average for non-pitchers is .260/.323/.402). So what probably would make the most sense for the Pirates would be a right handed-hitting platoon partner for Polanco, rather than getting a full-time outfielder (like Upton) who'd put Polanco on the bench or in AAA. I'd be surprised to see the Pirates go after a full-time replacement, but a right-handed fill-in, like the Phillies' Jeff Francoeur, whose lifetime .786 OPS against southpaws is almost double Polanco's .428. Francoeur, rumored to have been discussed by the Phils and Pirates, is another player who's never come close to living up to the hype generated by a fast start, but he has the virtue of being cheap: $950,000 for 2015, with no obligations beyond this year. Another possibility is an encore performance from the Reds' Marlon Byrd, who contributed to the Pirates' winning season in 2013 after a waiver-period trade from the Mets in 2013, though he's 37 and nearing the end of the road.

• First base: Like Polanco, Pedro Alvarez is a left-handed hitter. Like Polanco, he's been much more effective against right-handed pitchers (.237/.307/.437, all 12 of his home runs) than lefties (.179/.233/.214). Unlike Polanco, he's an absolute butcher in the field, with more errors here in mid-July (15) than any National League first baseman's had in a full season since Prince Fielder had 15 in 2011. A good-fielding right-handed hitter could relegate Alvarez to the bench (or get him traded). There are two first basemen widely assumed to be on the trading block: The Brewers' Adam Lind and the Red Sox's Mike Napoli. Lind is having a good season at the bat (.293/.374/.515), and isn't too expensive (signed for $7.5 million this year, $8 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2016) but he's a below-average (though not terrible) fielder and the Brewers, in rebuilding mode, are likely to hold out for top prospects (i.e., they're unlikely to want Alavarez). Napoli bats right and is a good fielder but, at 33, could be nearing the end of his career: following an injury-riddled (he missed 43 games) .248/.370/.419 last year, he's batted .198/.296/.353 this season, making him the worst-hitting regular first baseman in the American League this year. So the upgrade over Alvarez from Napoli, other than in the field, is unclear.

So it looks like this for the Pirates: The most obvious need is a right-handed bat, to platoon with, or possibly replace, Alvarez or Polanco in the lineup. Given who's available, and the Pirates' understandable (given their small-market status) unwillingness to part with top prospects, I do expect a deal, albeit likely a smaller one, for a right-handed hitter who may not be with the club next year. Byrd, with a .918 OPS against lefties this year, seems to me to be the most likely choice. But fans hoping for a blockbuster are probably going to be disappointed. 

Michael Cuddyer and the Case for American League Superiority

Two facts:

• Outfielder Michael Cuddyer was one of twelve major league free agents to receive a qualifying offer from his club. He rejected the opportunity to earn $15.3 million playing for the Rockies in 2015 and instead accepted a two-year contract with the Mets that will pay him $21 million: $8.5 million in 2015 and $12.5 million in 2016.
• In 2014 the American League went 163-137 in interleague games, a .543 winning percentage. The AL won the interleague series in 2013 as well, going 154-146 (.513). It was better in 2012. And 2011. And 2010. And every year beginning in 2004. (The last time the National League won the interleague series, The Curse of the Bambino was a thing and Alex Rodriguez was a shortstop for the Rangers.) And other than that first year, when the AL squeaked to a 127-125 edge, it hasn't been particularly close. Through the league's 11-year winning streak, it's won 55.4% of interleague games. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 90-72, a better record than either of the teams in this year's World Series.

I view these as interreleated.

Let's start with Cuddyer. In order to understand what he did, let's divide everything by 200 to get the dollars to regular-person levels. Say you're weighing two job opportunities. Your compensation is salary plus commission or bonus, so as is customary in such setups, you get an offer that guarantees you a fixed amount for the first year or two. One employer offers you $76,500 for one year. The other offers you two years: One at $42,500 and one at $62,500. Which do you take?

I would imagine that unless the benefits are insanely good, you don't even consider the second offer. Of course you take the first one. Your guaranteed contract should represent your employer's best guess of what you can make at the company, and the first employer figures you can generate enough business to pull in at least $76,500. The second employer thinks you're worth $14,000 less. No contest.

So why would Michael Cuddyer turn down a contract that would pay him $15.3 million for one year in favor of one that would pay him just $5.7 more than that for two years? Because his expectations aren't the same as yours. You figure that if you make $76,500 with your new employer next year, you'll make at least that much, and very possibly more, the year after, and at least that much the year after that, for years and years into the future. 

Michael Cuddyer, by contrast, has no such expectations. He'll turn 36 next March. He played only 49 games last year due to injuries. There's a small, but non-negligible chance, that next season will be his last in the majors. There's another chance, larger than the first, that something will happen next year--another serious injury, a lousy season--that will make his salary prospects for 2016 tenuous. Look, the Phillies just signed Jeff Francoeur to a minor-league contract with a chance to make the club out of spring training. Francouer is five years younger than Cuddyer and was the Royals' starting right fielder, pulling down $6 million, in 2012. He earned $7.5 million in 2013. Now he's a long shot to get a job. That's the difference between athletes and us. We have a pretty reasonable expectation that whatever we're doing for work this year, whether we're a lawyer or an accountant or a plumber or whatever, we'll be doing it for years to come. An athlete's career is short to start out with, and it can end suddenly. That's why, year after year, we see athletes sign contracts that emphasize length and total dollars rather than average annual value. Cuddyer preferred the Mets' offer of two years and $21 million ($10.5 million per year, on average) over the Rockies' one and $15.3 million because it guarantees him another year of employment and $5.7 million more. Players will reject an x-year contract for an average y million dollars per year in favor of one with a higher x and a lower y. Last year, for example, Robinson Cano reportedly rejected a seven-year contract from the Yankees that would reportedly pay him an average of $25 million per year in favor of a ten-year deal with Seattle that pays him an average of $24 million per year. 

That player preference helps the American League. If players like longer contracts because it insulates them from the risk of a loss of effectiveness, that risk gets absorbed by the team signing a player for multiple years. The Mets are on the hook to Cuddyer in 2016 if he turns into a pumpkin in 2015. The longer the contract, the greater the risk. 

That's where the difference between the leagues comes into play. The American League has a designated hitter; the National League doesn't. A position player, as he ages, is going to become a poorer fielder. His reflexes and range will diminish. In some cases, that means he'll move from a tough position like second base to an easier one like first base, as Hall of Famer Rod Carew did. But in a lot of cases, especially those of sluggers, he'll leave his glove in his locker and just become a designated hitter. In David Ortiz's rookie season with the Twins in 1998, he was the team's primary first baseman, playing 70 games there. He's played a total of 57 games at first for the Red Sox over the past ten years as Boston's  DH. Tigers DH Victor Martinez was primarily a position player from 2002 to 2010. He didn't became a DH until he was 32. 

This creates an advantage for the American League when hitters become free agents. Players want long contracts, teams don't. But the American League can realistically get production out of a player longer than a National League team can, because the American League team can move the player to DH. David Ortiz would probably not have a job with a National League team; he's pretty useless in the field. But he was ninth in the American League in on base plus slugging this year, earning $15 million. He'll turn 39 next week. The option of becoming a DH means that American League teams can offer players like Ortiz longer contracts than can their National League counterparts. Seattle's second baseman Cano will be 40 in the last year of the contract he signed last winter with the Mariners; he'll almost certainly be playing at least part-time at DH before then. American League sluggers tend to stay in the league, and National League sluggers are drawn to the American League for the same reason: American League teams can offer them longer contracts, because they can shift them to DH late in their career. The two best National League hitters in this year's free agent class are the Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez and the Giants' Pablo Sandoval. Ramirez is viewed as a so-so shortstop, and Sandoval, while a good third baseman, has a body type (i.e., he's fat) that might not lend itself to a long career in the field. How much do you want to bet that one or both winds up in the AL? On the other side , the two best AL hitters are the Tigers' Martinez and the Orioles' Nelson Cruz. They're both primarily DHs. Martinez has already re-signed with Detroit, and Cruz is virtually certain to stay in the league. Albert Pujols (went from the Cardinals to the Angels), Prince Fielder (went from the Brewers to the Tigers), Vladimir Guerrero (went from the Expos to the Angels)...the American League steadily draws free agent power hitters from the National League, and there is almost no movement the other way.

Because of the DH, the American League draws power-hitting talent from the National League while retaining its own. That'll help keep it ahead in the interleague standings. The example of Cuddyer isn't perfect--he's a National League hitter staying in the National League--but it's instructive.

Royals Fans, Meet Norichika Aoki

There sure seem to have been a lot of players changing leagues, haven't there? That means that things will be mostly new. Ricky Nolasco, now with the Twins, had been in the National League his entire career. Justin Morneau, now with the Rockies, had been in the American League for all but one month of his career. And now, the Kansas City Royals have landed former Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki for the endlessly-joked-about-because-of-his-name Will Smith. Other than three starts in Kansas City in 2012 during interleague play (during which, in 14 plate appearances, he got two singles, was hit twice, laid down a bunt, hit a double, and was caught stealing) he's a new name to Kansas City.

What's Good About Him? When the Brewers signed Aoki prior to the 2012 season, the consensus view was that the three-time Japanese League batting champion for the Yakult Swallows was, at age 29, over the hill. He was viewed as a fourth outfielder and played accordingly, starting only three games in April and 15 in May. His hitting and a succession of injuries to Brewers outfielders landed him a regular role that he never relinquished.

In 2013, as the team's right fielder, he led the NL in singles (140), was tenth in hits (171), and seventh in total times on base (237). His .286 batting average and .356 on base percentage compared favorably to the major league averages of .266 and .320 for right fielders. He bats left but actually hit better against left-handed pitchers last year (.781 OPS against lefties, .703 against righties), and he did better against left-handed starters (though not relievers) in 2012 as well. The average major league lefty batter lost 96 points of OPS against lefties last year. Among Brewer regulars, his on base percentage trailed only Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and was 19th among the 64 players who qualified for the NL batting title. He was the toughest player to strike out in the majors. And he played strong defense, finishing sixth in the Fielding Bible Award voting for right fielders. 

What's Not So Good About Him? There's one major weakness and one minor one in Aoki's game. The major one is power. His isolated power, defined as slugging percentage minus batting average (i.e., the amount of his slugging percentage attributable to extra-base hits) was the third-lowest in the NL. His slugging percentage was tenth lowest, boosted by all those singles. He hit just 20 doubles and 8 homers in 2013 compared to 37 and 10 in 2012. He's obviously more of a singles-and-speed guy than a power guy, but that lack of power is a drawback.

The second, smaller issue is that he's gone from being a pretty good basestealer in 2012 (30 stolen, 8 caught, 79% success rate vs. major league average of 74%) to a pretty bad one in 2013 (20 stolen, 12 caught, 63% success rate vs. major league average of 73%). He turns 32 in January, so he's at an age where his speed is more likely to regress than progress.

So What Should Royals Fans Expect? Royals right fielders, primarily David Lough and Jeff Francoeur, were pretty bad last year, compiling a .258/.304/.392 slash line compared to .286/.356/370 for Aoki. Aoki's on-base skills far outweigh the prior players' superior power. Further, Royals leadoff hitters had a .309 on base percentage, sixth-worst in the majors last year, while the Brewers leadoff hitters, primarily Aoki, were third-best. The main goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base. The Royals were bad at it and Aoki's good at it. So this trade is an upgrade for the Royals in two ways: They'll get more production from the right field position overall, and specifically, Aoki's superior on-base skills fills a major need in the leadoff position. And they'll get a strong defensive player to boot. That far outweighs the loss of all those really bad Men In Black references to the departed reliever.