Next Up: The...Wait, Didn't We Just Get Done Playing These Guys?

Pretty close: The Pirates played three games against the Brewers, the last of which was just a week ago today, last week. They were swept in three games at Miller Park. They'll hope for more success at home, though I'll point out again that the Pirates have struggled against the worst teams in their division, including a 6-9 record to date against the Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? This is going to be a lot like the last piece I wrote about the Brewers...Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 13-13, exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 5.1 runs per game, fifth in the league but allowed 5.0, also the the fifth most.

What's Going Right? The Brewers are second in batting average (.278), fourth in on base percentage (.331), and fifth in slugging percentage (.449) over the past 30 days. They're in a four-way tie for the fifth fewest (or, if you like, a four-way tie for the eighth most) home runs, they've walked at the fourth lowest rate, and struck out at the fifth highest rate, but overall, they've been pretty good. They've hit a below-average number of out-producing grounders and have an above-average rate of hard contact.

What's Going Wrong? The pitching problem is the starting staff. Its 5.48 ERA over the past 30 days is the fourth highest in the league and has led to an over-reliance on the bullpen, as the Brewers starters are the only ones in the league to have averaged less than five innings per start over the past 30 days. The Brewers starters have the highest walk rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league over the period and have induced the second-lowest rate of swings outside the strike zone.

Who's Hot? Same as I said last time: right fielder Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy have led the Crew over the last 30 days. Braun has a .372/.423/.617 slash line over the past 30 days, and Lucroy's is .311/.363/.544. Lucroy and Braun are 1-2 on the club in runs scored; Braun and Lucroy are 1-2 in RBI. Center fielder Domingo Santana, who came over in the Carlos Gomez trade, is hitting .288/.409/.615 in 16 games as a Brewer. (Gomez is hitting only .239/.284/.370 as an Astro--his OPS is barely better than Santana's slugging percentage.) First baseman Adam Lind (.297/.409/.486) and second baseman Scooter Gennett (.348/.357/.464) have also done well over the past 30 days. 

The Brewers have relied on four relievers who've appeared in eleven or more games over the past 30 days. Two of them, middle relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, have combined for a 1.93 ERA (though Jeffress has struck out only five batters in 12.1 innings and Knebel's allowed three homers in 11.0). As for the other two relievers, see the next sentence. 

Who's Not? Closer Francisco Rodriguez has a 6.75 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup man Will Smith's is 5.56. The Pirates will face starters Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies (who's listed at 22 years old, 6'0", 160, but looks younger and skinnier), and Taylor Jungmann over the series. Peralta and Davies are the only two starters with ERAs below 4.00 over the last 30 days, at 3.42 and 3.97, respectively. So by that measure, they're not hot. On the other hand, they've combined for a 2.10 ERA against the Pirates this year. (Full disclosure: All but one of the starts have been by Nelson and Jungmann.)

What's the Outlook? Coming off two victories in three games against arch-nemesis/otherwise bad team Cincinnati, the Pirates will try to get their seasonal record closer to .500 against the Brewers. As I wrote last week: 

As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.

As of this writing, the National League Central has the teams with the best (Cardinals), second-best (Pirates), and fourth-best (Cubs) record in major league baseball. All three teams look to improve over the weekend, as the Pirates play the team with the seventh-worst record in baseball (Milwaukee), the Reds play the team with the fourth-worst record (Cincinnati), and the Cubs draw the long straw, playing the team with the worst record of all (Philadelphia).

Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Cardinals really are ridiculous. Last Monday, I noted that the Pirates, 3.5 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central, were starting a series of ten games against three of the worst teams in the National League, while the Cardinals had ten against teams with winning records. The Pirates have delivered, going 5-2 in the first seven games...and they've lost a game and a half in the standings. St. Louis has 31 more games. If they go 15-16 for the rest of the season, the Pirates will have to go 22-11 to pass them. That's not impossible--the team's a game better than that, 23-10, over its last 33 games--but the last time the Cardinals were below .500 over a 31-game stretch was July 5 to August 12 last year.

On a brighter note, the Pirates enter play tonight against the Brewers 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs for the first wild card and home field advantage for the National League wild card play-in game on October 7. 


How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 11-14, putting them exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, seventh in the league (one spot below the Pirates at 4.6) and allowed 5.2, the fourth most. An 11-14 record is about what you'd expect from a run differential like that.

What's Going Right? The Brewers' batters have hit .259, the sixth highest batting average in the league, over the past 30 days, with a seventh-best .421 slugging percentage, but their .313 on base percentage is twelfth. They've struck out an an above-average rate and walked at a below-average rate but they've generated the third-highest rate of hard contact in the league, resulting in 13% of their fly balls going over the fence, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Brewers bullpen has been in the middle of the pack over the past 30 days--4.08 ERA, seventh in the league--but the starters have been bad. Their 5.51 ERA over the past 30 days is tenth in the league. That ranking doesn't sound too bad. But the National League over the past 30 days has had nine teams with a starters' ERA below 4.50 and the other six with a starters' ERA above 5.50. The Brewers are on the wrong side of that divide, as evidenced by the league ERA of 4.44--Milwaukee's been 24% worse. The starters have the highest walk rate and fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league. They've probably been a little unlucky--no team's stranded fewer baserunners--but they've induced opponents to swing at only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest rate in the league. As a result, they've allowed the highest rate of hard contact on balls in play and the second-lowest rate of soft contact.  

Who's Hot? With center fielder Carlos Gomez traded with starter Mike Fiers to the Astros at the trade deadline, the Brewers' biggest remaining stars are right fielder/boo magnet Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Over the past 30 days, Braun's caught fire, with a .337/.400/.596 slash line, and Lucroy's slugged .512 with a .343 on base percentage. Left fielder Khris Davis has hit ten homers, slugging .584, but he's been all-or-none at the plate, with just a .225 batting average and a .283 on base percentage. On the mound, the exception to the Brewers-starters-haven't-been-good rule is rookie Taylor Jungmann, who's had a 3.12 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 26 innings over the past 30 days. Pirates fans will remember that Jungmann's first major league start came against the Bucs in June; he allowed one run over seven innings in a 4-1 Brewers victory. He'll pitch Wednesday. In the bullpen, the two primary setup men, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress, have been good, with 28 strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA over 22 innings in the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Tonight's starter, Jimmy Nelson, hasn't been bad over the past 30 days, with a 4.03 ERA (but too many walks, 13 in 29 innings). Thursday's starter, Matt Garza, by contrast, has been bad (7.24 ERA). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has struggled, with a 6.10 ERA over the past 30 days. His peripheral numbers are good--13 strikeouts and just one walk over 10.1 innings, going eight-for-nine in saves--but he's given up three home runs, as many as any Brewers starter other than Garza. 

You gotta get on base to score runs, and much of the Brewers' lineup over the past 30 days has been an on base percentage sinkhole: third baseman Hernan Perez (who took over the position when the Pirates acquired Aramis Ramirez) .265, shortstop Jean Segura .272, Gomez replacement Shane Peterson .282, and the aforementioned Davis. Special credit goes to Perez, who has the fewest unintentional walks, three, of any player in the majors with at least 190 plate appearances this year.

What's the Outlook? At 55-75, the Brewers have the fifth worst record in the National League. The Pirates, though, have struggled against their National League Central rivals, going 21-29 in games within the division. That ties them with Milwaukee for the worst record in intra-division games in the Central. So far, the teams have split twelve meetings, and the Brewers hold a 4-2 advantage in games at Miller Park. The Pirates will try to narrow that advantage in advance of a weekend series in St. Louis. As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.

Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

In theory, the Pirates open a three-game series against the Brewers tonight, though it appears likely that the weather will intervene tonight. A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, and Charlie Morton are scheduled to oppose Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann (in his first major league start), and Kyle Lohse, respectively. This is the third time the two teams have met this year. The Pirates took two of three in Milwaukee and swept a three-game series in Pittsburgh in April. 

How Are They Doing Lately? This is shaping up as a pretty bad year in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the worst record in the majors, 20-37, and over the past 30 days, their 11-16 record is fourth worst in the National League. The Pirates have the league's best record over that stretch, 18-9. 

What's Going Right? The Brewers' bullpen has pitched 95 innings over the last 30 days, the second-most in the National League. (See the comment below about the starting rotation to see why.) Despite the workload, the relievers have a 2.65 ERA, third best in the league, and it hasn't been a fluke: they've induced the second-most grounders and struck out batters at the second-highest rate. The hitters have been challenged at getting on base but when they've hit the ball, they've hit it hard: they're third in homers and tied for first in triples, yielding an isolated slugging percentage (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .161, best in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The rotation's been a weakness. The Brewers' 4.98 starters' ERA over the past 30 days is surpassed by only the Diamondbacks' 5.32 in the National League. bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. On offense, the team's batting average is .240 over the past 30 days, third-worst in the league, accompanied by a league-worst .292 on base percentage. 

Who's Hot? Going into the season, the Brewers had three All-Star level players: catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez. They were hoping for a bounceback from shortstop Jean Segura, who'd had a poor 2014 after a promising 2013. All four have raked over the past 30 days (OPS: .889 for Lucroy, .938 for Braun, .849 for Gomez, .913 for Segura), though Lucroy's played only six games after returning from a broken toe and Segura lost time with a broken pinkie. Another strong performer, left fielder Khris Davis, has a .933 OPS but is disabled. 

The only starting pitcher who's been decent over the past 30 days is Mike Fiers (2.78 ERA), but the Pirates aren't facing him. Of the seven relievers who've appeared in nine or more games over the past 30 days, all but one have an ERA of 3.55 or better. Those six have also struck out 84 batters in 74.1 innings. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has only four saves over the past 30 days, tying the Reds and Padres for fewest in the league, but that's due to a lack of opportunity.

Who's Not? With so many hitters doing well, why has the offense suffered? First baseman Adam Lind has hit a wall after a hot start, with a .229/.297/.373 slash line over the past 30 days, and third baseman Aramis Ramirez is worse at .171/.224/.329. Martin Maldonado, who caught in Lucroy's absense, contributed .197/.270/.318. Luis Sardinas filled in for Segura, hitting, .227/.239/.258. Second base has been a black hole all year for the Brewers as well; the players splitting the position are last in the NL in batting (.182), on base (.220), and slugging (.261), by far the worst in each category.

Rather than list the starting pitchers who've been bad of late, suffice it to say that those whose last name is not Fiers have a 5.58 ERA. Setup man Jonathan Broxton has a 6.97 ERA over the past 30 days.

What's the Outlook? The The Brewers are not a good team. However, they've been playing shorthanded much of the year, with several starters spending time on the disabled list. They're mostly healthy now, and have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.

Odds and Ends - April 19

In about a month, I'll restart my weekly Trailing 30 report, which lists league leaders over the prior 30 days. There's no sense in doing it until then, though. If you want to know who's leading the league over the past few weeks, just look up the current standings. Once we get into May, seeing who's hot (and not) of late becomes interesting. At this point, it's just current events. 

Breaking the Brewers Curse?

This chart shows the Pirates' winning percentage against Milwaukee, at home and on the road, over the past 15 years. The pattern is pretty clear.

The Brewers used to absolutely own the Pirates, particularly at Miller Park. From 2006 to 2011, the Pirates went 6-48 in Milwaukee--a .111 winning percentage. After Pittsburgh's three-game sweep at home over the weekend, they're 3-0 at home, 2-1 on the road against a Milwaukee team that, to put it nicely, didn't look particularly sharp.

Ryan Braun--Star or No?

As I pointed out last Thursday, Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun had no extra-base hits entering the series against the Pirates. He exits the series the same: eleven games played, 38 at bats, nine hits, all singles. That's not much of a start for a player considered to be the team's biggest star and, at $13 million, its highest-paid player. This is Braun's ninth year in the majors, and this is only the second time he's gone over ten games straight in a season without an extra-base hit. That's not good. However, the one other time it occurred was in 2011, when Braun had a 12-game, 7-for-44 (.159) streak to start May. That was also the year he was the National League's Most Valuable Player, so it's not like he can't overcome his slow start. On the other hand, he wasn't 31, coming off two disappointing seasons, back in 2011.

This raises a question as to whether Braun is, in fact, the Brewers' biggest star. I'd make a case for center fielder Carlos Gomez or catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Gomez is on the disabled list with a strained hamstring, and Lucroy's started the year batting .132, which, combined with Braun's light hitting, helps explain Milwaukee's 2-10 start, the worst record in the majors.

But apparently the Pirates still view Braun as the team's star. In Saturday night's game, Brewers reliever Tyler Thornburg hit Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen with a high and inside pitch in the bottom of the seventh. I cannot fathom any reason for Thornburg to have hit McCutchen intentionally. The Brewers were losing, 6-1 at the time. There were two outs, nobody on. One of the stupid reasons that pitchers throw at batters is the prior batter hitting a home run. That wasn't the case; right fielder Gregory Polanco preceded McCutchen by grounding to second. Another stupid reason pitchers throw at batters is if the batter's having a big night; McCutchen had walked in the first, fouled out in the third, and walked in the fifth. So, as I said, Thornburg didn't have any justification for hitting McCutchen. Here's a plot of his pitches from Saturday night.

The pitch that hit McCutchen is the green square up and to the left, with the number 1 next to it. That's not the most inside pitch Thornburg threw. The second pitch he threw to leadoff batter Josh Harrison, the green square farthest to the left, with the number 2 next to it, was more inside. He didn't hit Harrison. Was he trying to hit McCutchen? I doubt it.

The point is, McCutchen is, unquestionably, the Pirates' biggest star. The code of baseball says that if you hit my star, I'm going to hit yours. McCutchen was hit in the bottom of the seventh inning. The Brewers went down 1-2-3 in the top of the eighth, with lesser lights (15 total plate appearances among them this season entering the inning) Martin Maldonado, Jason Rogers, and Luis Jimenez retired without incident. In the top of the ninth, Braun led up, and Pirates reliever Arquimedes Caminero promptly nailed him with a 98.6 mph fastball. Pirates fans cheered, the umpires warned both benches, and, a single and a run scored later, the Pirates had a 6-2 victory.

I'm sorry, but I really find Caminero's action objectionable, for two reasons. First, this eye-for-an-eye macho stuff serves no purpose I can see. Yes, I get it, McCutchen shouldn't have gotten hit. And if there were any reason to believe that Thornburg had done it on purpose, I could see the logic behind retaliation. But that really doesn't seem to be the case--Thornburg just threw too far inside, and McCutchen was unable to get away from the pitch, unlike Harrison, who was able to avoid an even closer pitch. Why is it necessary to retaliate for an accident?

Second, if you're going to retaliate, why do you need to do it with a 99 mph fastball? I don't refer to a hit batter as "getting plunked," because plunked conjures up an image of something soft and gentle, like getting hit by a pine cone falling from a tree. A baseball's hard to begin with, and throwing one nearly 100 miles per hour at somebody would be called assault, not plunk, away from a baseball diamond. 

You know what this whole thing reminded me of? Last summer, when Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado threw a 96 mph into McCutchen's back, ostensibly in retaliation for Arizona's star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt getting hit by a pitch the prior day. McCutchen was hurt, missing several games, and a number of commentators called for Delgado to be suspended. What's the difference here, except that Braun didn't suffer an injury? Same casus belli, same action by the pitcher, same type of pitch thrown. I could do without all of it.

I suppose, though, that Braun can take solace in, apparently, still being the Brewers' big star despite his .237 slugging percentage.

On April Worries

The season hasn't started well for the Pirates. They're 3-6, ahead of only Milwaukee in the National League Central, 2.5 games behind the Cardinals and Cubs and 2 games behind the Reds. Among the problems:

• They're last in the league in batting average (.207) and on base percentage (.255) and third-to-last in slugging percentage (.338). Pedro Alvarez is the only regular with a batting average above .235.
• They've struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances, the most in the league, while walking in just over 4%, the second-fewest.
• The starting pitchers have been pretty good--3.38 ERA, sixth in the league--but the relievers' ERA of 3.04 is the fifth highest. 
• They were shut out Tuesday and Wednesday by the Tigers. That's only the 14th time they've been shut out back-to-back in this century, and the first since 2013.
• As I pointed out Tuesday, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are 1-2 in the National League in strikeouts per plate appearance (42% and 39%, respectively). 
• As Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune pointed out Wednesday, closer Mark Melancon has had a worrisome drop in pitch velocity along with a 6.75 ERA.

Still, it isn't time to panic, at least not yet. It's true that the Pirates have suffered two shutouts in a row, which didn't happen at all last year, but it happened twice in 2013, when they won 94 games, the team's most since 1992. As for the won-lost record, last year's club, which made the postseason, was in fourth place in the division as late as July 18. The first nine days do not a season make. 

One of the links on the Reading tab is to Joe Sheehan's newsletter. He sends it out via email, and I always look forward to receiving it. The little asterisk next to his name means that you have to pay for it. It's well worth the $29.95 annual fee, because of gems like this, from Tuesday:

So, madding crowds be damned, I'll be the guy who points out that the stats generated in one week of baseball are just as meaningless in April as they are in June as they are in August. Attempts to glean meaning from the performances of individuals or teams over six or seven or eight games are wasteful exercises in clickbait and confirmation bias. This is the worst part of baseball fandom in the modern age, the footballification of analysis, the insistence on stamping feet and insisting that, yes, this time is different.  

Joe's point--and he's one of the best analysts out there--is that a short streak doesn't mean anything. Andrew McCutchen is hitting .207 after eight games. That stinks! But he batted .206 over a ten-game streak in 2014. That streak--from May 22 to May 31--didn't occur at the start of the season so it didn't cause the hand-wringing this year's start has. McCutchen will do better. So will the Bucs.

I'm not saying everything's great. It isn't. But it's way, way early to get worried.

(Except Melancon's pitch velocity. I'm really concerned about that.)

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

The Pirates host the Brew Crew for three games over the weekend. Last weekend, the Bucs took two of three in Milwaukee. The Brewers haven't been has bad as the Pirates at the plate; Milwaukee's hitters were 24% below league average entering play today, while the Pirates were 33% worse. But Pittsburgh's put together a 3.26 team ERA, sixth in the league, while the Brewers' team ERA of 4.38 is second-worst in the majors. So Pittsburgh's disappointing hitters meet Milwaukee's disappointing pitchers: Somebody should get better, right?

The Brewers' best hitter has been first baseman Adam Lind, who has a .345/.441/.586 slash line. Shortstop Jean Segura, who had a terrible 2014, has also started well, .333/.379/.519. Right fielder/booing target Ryan Braun's hit an anemic .261/.292/.261. His next extra-base hit will be his first.

0-3

The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:

• 1903: 3-0
• 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
• 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
• 1927: 3-0
• 1960: 1-2
• 1970: 1-2
• 1971: 3-0
• 1972: 1-2
• 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
• 1975: 3-0
• 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 1990: 2-1
• 1991: 2-1
• 1992: 2-1
• 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 2014: 2-1

So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.

They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.

Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday. 

When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one). 

Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.

Phillip Hughes, 1988-2014

No, not that Phil Hughes. This Phillip Hughes played cricket, a sport about which we hear next to nothing in the U.S. But on Thanksgiving, the news broke that he died, three days short of his 26th birthday. He suffered head injuries from the cricket equivalent of being hit by a pitch two days earlier.

When I link to other articles here, I'm generally linking to writers at analytically-oriented websites rather than the mainstream media. It's not because I have anything against the traditional journalists, it's just that they don't generally cover the aspects of baseball I'm exploring. Buster Olney of ESPN is one of the best, and he wrote a spot-on piece about Hughes on Friday. You have to be an ESPN Insider to read it (note that if you play an ESPN fantasy game, you're an Insider), but it links what happened to Hughes, a cricketer in Australia, to what goes on in baseball in the U.S.: 

Maybe it's time to evolve to this: Intentionally hitting a batter for any reason is just wrong, and stupid, and dangerous. And if all the players begin to believe this, rather than thinking there is a proper way to retaliate, then progress will be made for all of them.

What happened to Phillip Hughes was an accident. What happens when a baseball player's hit by a pitch often isn't. Think of the game in June when Diamondbacks pitcher Evan Marshall intentionally hit Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun, an idiotic move that resulted in the next Brewers hitter, Jonathan Lucroy, hitting a go-ahead grand slam. Or last August when another Diamondbacks pitcher, Randall Delgado, purposely hit Pirates star Andrew McCutchen. Both times, the batter was hit in retaliation for an Arizona batter being hit earlier in the game. Braun took a pitch to his rear end, but McCutchen was nailed in the back by a 95 mph fastball that put him out of play for 14 games. As Olney points out in his article, major league pitchers can't place a ball perfectly from 60 feet and 6 inches away, and a fastball that's supposed to hit a player in the back could easily hit him in the head instead.

Look, I've written a lot about batters being hit by pitches (here, here, and here), because the rate's been rising and nobody seems to have noticed, much less done anything about it. My conclusion, in the last piece to which I linked, is that rising hit by pitch rates are a consequence of rising strikeouts, because batters are more likely to be hit when the pitcher's ahead on the count. (The most dangerous counts for batters, in terms of the risk of being hit by a pitch), are 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 0-1, and those are all paths to strikeouts.) But I never talk about hit batters as "plunking" or something innocuous sounding like that. A baseball is a hard object, thrown at high speed from a short distance to a player who's pretty much defenseless. Phillip Hughes was wearing a helmet much more extensive than a baseball batting helmet, and he was killed, accidentally, by a ball that bounced before it came to him. Why should we allow pitchers to throw straight at a batter? Yes, I know, they've done it for over a century and it's part of the game and all that, but tripping baserunners and lacerating fielders with sharpened spikes used to be part of the game too. That sort of thing was legislated out of the game. So should, as Olney suggests, intentionally throwing at batters. 

Headhunting

In probably the most controversial case of hit-by-pitch retribution this year, the Diamondbacks responded to Pirates reliever Ernesto Frieri hitting their star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, breaking his hand and ending his season, by hitting the Pirates' defending MVP, Andrew McCutchen, the next day, maybe or maybe not directly or indirectly causing a rib injury that may or may not put him on the disabled list. The absence of McCutchen could be devastating to the Pirates, who currently trail the Brewers by 1.5 games in the NL Central and lead the Cardinals and Giants by half a game in the National League Wild Card race. Frieri, who has had problems with his command all season (3.0 walks and 2.4 homers per nine innings, 7.34 ERA), fairly obviously hit Goldschmidt accidentally. Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado fairly obviously hit McCutchen on purpose.

Arizona has a reputation for hitting opposing batters, after their GM, Kevin Towers, lamented during the offseason that the team doesn't do it enough. Memorably, Diamondbacks pitcher Evan Marshall obviously intentionally hit Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun June 17 to the cheers of Arizona teammates and fans. The problem was, he loaded the bases for Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy in a game Arizona was leading 4-3. On the first pitch from reliever Brad Ziegler (Marshall was ejected), Lucroy blasted a grand slam to give the Brewers a 7-4 lead in a game they went on to win 7-5. The Diamondbacks' headhunting in that game may have cost them a victory.


This has led to all sorts of discussion about unwritten you-hit-my-guy-I-hit-yours rules, which teams' batters stand too close to the plate, and which teams' pitchers pitch inside the most. My friend David wondered which teams are the most notorious for hitting batters and for getting hit. That's easy enough to find out.

Here are the ten major league teams that have had the most batters hit by pitches this season: 
   1. Pittsburgh    60
   2. St. Louis     58
   3. Milwaukee     52
   4. Boston        46
   5. Tampa Bay     44
   6. Baltimore     43
      Seattle       43
      Texas         43
   9. White Sox     41
  10. Hou, LAA, Was 40

Makes you wonder about the NL Central, where the three top teams have been hit the most in baseball, doesn't it? 

And here are the pitching staffs that have hit the most batters:
   1. Pittsburgh    61
   2. White Sox     52
   3. Baltimore     50
   4. Yankees       49
   5. St. Louis     48
   6. Angels        47
      Philadelphia  47
   8. Houston       44
      Kansas City   44
  10. Cin, TB       43

Well, well. Pirates games certainly feature a lot of hit batsmen, don't they? Same with several of the other teams on the list.

This made me think: Who are the biggest victims and victimizers? Whose batters get hit more often than their pitchers hit batters, and vice-versa? Here are the victims, the teams with highest number of batters' HBP minus pitchers' HBP:
   1. Milwaukee     23
   2. Boston        20
   3. Minnesota     15
   4. St. Louis     10
   5. Seattle        8
   6. Atlanta        7
   7. Texas          6
      Washington     6
   9. Arizona        5
  10. Dodgers        4

I wouldn't read much into those figures once you get past the top three or four - we're 114 games into the season, so Atlanta's difference of 7, for example, means that an Atlanta batter gets hit without an opposing batter getting hit once every 16+ games. That's not much of a trend. But I wouldn't have expected the Diamondbacks to be on this list, not with their headhunting reputation.

And who are the victimizers, who hit other teams' batters in excess of their hitter getting plunked?
   1. Miami         13
      Philadelphia  13
   3. White Sox     11
      Kansas City   11
      Yankees       11
   6. Toronto        9
   7. Colorado       8
   8. Baltimore      7
      Angels         7
      Padres         7

Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing: Huh? This is not exactly a rogues' gallery of teams with a reputation for playing dirty.

What can we learn from this? Not a lot. We don't know how many times a pitcher hits a batter accidentally or purposely from looking at the raw numbers, nor how often a batter bails out on an inside pitch or stands in there, taking his base. We don't know how many times a batter's hit in act of retaliation, and how many of those are the teams' stars. But I think we can say three things with certainty:

1. For the most part, teams' pitchers hit batters about as often as its batters get hit.
2. Contrary to what sportswriters may say about Don Drysdale and Bob Gibson throwing at batters (I discussed Gibson's somewhat undeserved reputation last fall), we are not living in an era during which pitchers are unwilling to hit batters. Batters are getting hit once every 17.5 games this year. That's the 18th most in history (since 1901). The top 25 are all from the years 1901-1913 and 2001-2014. 
3. Despite their reputation, the Diamondbacks have hit 34 batters this year, tying for the eighth fewest in baseball. Go figure.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  86-76.

Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.

Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.

Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.

Royals Fans, Meet Norichika Aoki

There sure seem to have been a lot of players changing leagues, haven't there? That means that things will be mostly new. Ricky Nolasco, now with the Twins, had been in the National League his entire career. Justin Morneau, now with the Rockies, had been in the American League for all but one month of his career. And now, the Kansas City Royals have landed former Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki for the endlessly-joked-about-because-of-his-name Will Smith. Other than three starts in Kansas City in 2012 during interleague play (during which, in 14 plate appearances, he got two singles, was hit twice, laid down a bunt, hit a double, and was caught stealing) he's a new name to Kansas City.

What's Good About Him? When the Brewers signed Aoki prior to the 2012 season, the consensus view was that the three-time Japanese League batting champion for the Yakult Swallows was, at age 29, over the hill. He was viewed as a fourth outfielder and played accordingly, starting only three games in April and 15 in May. His hitting and a succession of injuries to Brewers outfielders landed him a regular role that he never relinquished.

In 2013, as the team's right fielder, he led the NL in singles (140), was tenth in hits (171), and seventh in total times on base (237). His .286 batting average and .356 on base percentage compared favorably to the major league averages of .266 and .320 for right fielders. He bats left but actually hit better against left-handed pitchers last year (.781 OPS against lefties, .703 against righties), and he did better against left-handed starters (though not relievers) in 2012 as well. The average major league lefty batter lost 96 points of OPS against lefties last year. Among Brewer regulars, his on base percentage trailed only Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and was 19th among the 64 players who qualified for the NL batting title. He was the toughest player to strike out in the majors. And he played strong defense, finishing sixth in the Fielding Bible Award voting for right fielders. 

What's Not So Good About Him? There's one major weakness and one minor one in Aoki's game. The major one is power. His isolated power, defined as slugging percentage minus batting average (i.e., the amount of his slugging percentage attributable to extra-base hits) was the third-lowest in the NL. His slugging percentage was tenth lowest, boosted by all those singles. He hit just 20 doubles and 8 homers in 2013 compared to 37 and 10 in 2012. He's obviously more of a singles-and-speed guy than a power guy, but that lack of power is a drawback.

The second, smaller issue is that he's gone from being a pretty good basestealer in 2012 (30 stolen, 8 caught, 79% success rate vs. major league average of 74%) to a pretty bad one in 2013 (20 stolen, 12 caught, 63% success rate vs. major league average of 73%). He turns 32 in January, so he's at an age where his speed is more likely to regress than progress.

So What Should Royals Fans Expect? Royals right fielders, primarily David Lough and Jeff Francoeur, were pretty bad last year, compiling a .258/.304/.392 slash line compared to .286/.356/370 for Aoki. Aoki's on-base skills far outweigh the prior players' superior power. Further, Royals leadoff hitters had a .309 on base percentage, sixth-worst in the majors last year, while the Brewers leadoff hitters, primarily Aoki, were third-best. The main goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base. The Royals were bad at it and Aoki's good at it. So this trade is an upgrade for the Royals in two ways: They'll get more production from the right field position overall, and specifically, Aoki's superior on-base skills fills a major need in the leadoff position. And they'll get a strong defensive player to boot. That far outweighs the loss of all those really bad Men In Black references to the departed reliever.