Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Cardinals really are ridiculous. Last Monday, I noted that the Pirates, 3.5 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central, were starting a series of ten games against three of the worst teams in the National League, while the Cardinals had ten against teams with winning records. The Pirates have delivered, going 5-2 in the first seven games...and they've lost a game and a half in the standings. St. Louis has 31 more games. If they go 15-16 for the rest of the season, the Pirates will have to go 22-11 to pass them. That's not impossible--the team's a game better than that, 23-10, over its last 33 games--but the last time the Cardinals were below .500 over a 31-game stretch was July 5 to August 12 last year.

On a brighter note, the Pirates enter play tonight against the Brewers 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs for the first wild card and home field advantage for the National League wild card play-in game on October 7. 


How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 11-14, putting them exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, seventh in the league (one spot below the Pirates at 4.6) and allowed 5.2, the fourth most. An 11-14 record is about what you'd expect from a run differential like that.

What's Going Right? The Brewers' batters have hit .259, the sixth highest batting average in the league, over the past 30 days, with a seventh-best .421 slugging percentage, but their .313 on base percentage is twelfth. They've struck out an an above-average rate and walked at a below-average rate but they've generated the third-highest rate of hard contact in the league, resulting in 13% of their fly balls going over the fence, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Brewers bullpen has been in the middle of the pack over the past 30 days--4.08 ERA, seventh in the league--but the starters have been bad. Their 5.51 ERA over the past 30 days is tenth in the league. That ranking doesn't sound too bad. But the National League over the past 30 days has had nine teams with a starters' ERA below 4.50 and the other six with a starters' ERA above 5.50. The Brewers are on the wrong side of that divide, as evidenced by the league ERA of 4.44--Milwaukee's been 24% worse. The starters have the highest walk rate and fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league. They've probably been a little unlucky--no team's stranded fewer baserunners--but they've induced opponents to swing at only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest rate in the league. As a result, they've allowed the highest rate of hard contact on balls in play and the second-lowest rate of soft contact.  

Who's Hot? With center fielder Carlos Gomez traded with starter Mike Fiers to the Astros at the trade deadline, the Brewers' biggest remaining stars are right fielder/boo magnet Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Over the past 30 days, Braun's caught fire, with a .337/.400/.596 slash line, and Lucroy's slugged .512 with a .343 on base percentage. Left fielder Khris Davis has hit ten homers, slugging .584, but he's been all-or-none at the plate, with just a .225 batting average and a .283 on base percentage. On the mound, the exception to the Brewers-starters-haven't-been-good rule is rookie Taylor Jungmann, who's had a 3.12 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 26 innings over the past 30 days. Pirates fans will remember that Jungmann's first major league start came against the Bucs in June; he allowed one run over seven innings in a 4-1 Brewers victory. He'll pitch Wednesday. In the bullpen, the two primary setup men, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress, have been good, with 28 strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA over 22 innings in the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Tonight's starter, Jimmy Nelson, hasn't been bad over the past 30 days, with a 4.03 ERA (but too many walks, 13 in 29 innings). Thursday's starter, Matt Garza, by contrast, has been bad (7.24 ERA). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has struggled, with a 6.10 ERA over the past 30 days. His peripheral numbers are good--13 strikeouts and just one walk over 10.1 innings, going eight-for-nine in saves--but he's given up three home runs, as many as any Brewers starter other than Garza. 

You gotta get on base to score runs, and much of the Brewers' lineup over the past 30 days has been an on base percentage sinkhole: third baseman Hernan Perez (who took over the position when the Pirates acquired Aramis Ramirez) .265, shortstop Jean Segura .272, Gomez replacement Shane Peterson .282, and the aforementioned Davis. Special credit goes to Perez, who has the fewest unintentional walks, three, of any player in the majors with at least 190 plate appearances this year.

What's the Outlook? At 55-75, the Brewers have the fifth worst record in the National League. The Pirates, though, have struggled against their National League Central rivals, going 21-29 in games within the division. That ties them with Milwaukee for the worst record in intra-division games in the Central. So far, the teams have split twelve meetings, and the Brewers hold a 4-2 advantage in games at Miller Park. The Pirates will try to narrow that advantage in advance of a weekend series in St. Louis. As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.

Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Pirates open a three-game series in Milwaukee tonight before wrapping up interleague play against the two top teams in the American League Central, Kansas City and Minnesota, wrapped around a four-game series against the National League East-leading Washington Nationals.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Brewers are a .500 team over the past 30 days, going 14-14. Appropriately, that ranks them exactly in the middle of the National League. They've led the league in scoring during the period, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They've given up 4.4 per game, the fifth most.

What's Going Right? When you lead the league in scoring, the offense is clicking. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers lead the league in batting (.282) and on base percentage (.335) and they're second in slugging percentage (.433). They're third in home runs and have been the hardest team in the league to strike out. The bullpen's been OK, with a 3.19 ERA that ranks ninth in the league over the past 30 days, as they've gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone at a fourth-best-in-the-league 32% clip.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers' 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days would be the worst in the league were it not for the Rockies' Coors Field-inflated 5.41 and the Phillies' cover-your-eyes 7.07. They've struck out batters at the lowest rate in the league during the period and allowed the second-most hard-hit balls. 

Who's Hot? The biggest batting stars over the last 30 days have been outfielder Gerardo Parra (.349/.383/.566 slash line) and first baseman Adam Lind (.290/.396/.538). Lind leads the club over the period with six homers and 19 RBI, while Parra's the leading scorer with 18 runs. He's added five homers and five stolen bases. Second baseman Scooter Gennett, sent the minors in May with a .154/.203/.200 batting line, is hitting .298/.327/.511 since his return on June 11. The team's more familiar stars--catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez--have been solid contributors as well.

Rookie Taylor Jungmann, who debuted against the Pirates on June 9, has a 2.31 ERA over the past 30 days. He'll start Sunday afternoon's game. In the bullpen, closer Francisco Rodriguez has six saves, a 2.00 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days, and the two relievers likely to replace Rodriguez if he's traded, righty Jeremy Jeffress and lefty Will Smith, have combined for a 2.74 ERA, though Jeffress doesn't strike out enough batters (14% of batters faced, the league average is 21% for relievers) and Smith walks too many (9%, the league average is 7%).

Who's Not? The two worst starting pitchers over the past 30 days have been the two supposedly on the trading block: Kyle Lohse has a 5.94 ERA and Matt Garza's is 7.88. Garza's out with shoulder tendonitis and the Pirates won't face Lohse. Shortstop Jean Segura has an absolutely punchless .252 batting average over the past 30 days: he's walked only three times and has no extra-base hits at all, so his on base percentage is just .278 and his slugging percentage of .252 is lower than that of Pirate pitcher Vance Worley (.267). 

What's the Outlook? I'll reiterate what I said the last time the teams met: 

They...have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.

The bigger question is, how long does this team stay together? The Brewers are in last place, 10.5 games behind the Cardinals, and not going to the postseason. There have been rumors about almost everyone on the team getting traded. Braun's contract pays him $96 million over the next five seasons and he's owed either $15 million (mutual option) or $4 million (buyout) in 2021. With a contract that large, he's not tradeable. Lucroy is sort of the opposite: his contract is so cheap ($4 million next year, $5.25 million team option in 2017) that he's hard to trade as well. 

Some players who could be moved won't generate a lot in return. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is 37, having a down year, and has announced he'll retire at the end of the season, so he'll bring little in return. Lohse is a free agent after the season and has a 6.17 ERA. Garza is a little pricey, owed $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017 with a $13 million vesting option in 2018, plus he's got a 5.55 ERA and is on the disabled list.

Other trade pieces are more valuable. This is K-Rod's 14th year in the majors but he's only 33 and still getting batters out. His contract is reasonable ($5.5 million next year, $6 million team option/$4 million buyout in 2017), so he could go to a team in need of relief help (Detroit?). Gomez is arguably the club's best player, and he's owed a reasonable $9 million next year, but he'll be a free agent after that and likely too expensive for the Brewers, so he could depart. Lind has turned out be a nice pickup for the Brewers. He's owed either $8 million or a $500,000 buyout next year, so he could be traded to team looking for help at first base. (The Cardinals and Pirates come to mind immediately). Segura's about to become more expensive, as he's eligible for arbitration next year, but he won't be a free agent until 2019, so I don't fully understand the zeal to trade him. The difficulty for the Brewers is that it makes sense to trade players if they won't be around for the next winning team. The Brewers aren't hopeless, and it'd normally be pessimistic to suggest a team can't turn around in three years, becoming a contender for at least a wild card in Segura's last year before free agency. But Milwaukee has the misfortune to play in the same division as possibly the best organization in baseball (St. Louis) and two of the best young teams (the Pirates and the Cubs), so it could be a long time before they can break into the top three in the division. Thus, I expect the Brewers to be more interested in longer-term prospects than major league-ready players as we approach the trade deadline at the end of the month.

Flyover: Milwaukee Brewers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. I was doing these alphabetically--got through Detroit--but I'm going to jump around now, for three reasons. First, I haven't been able to post as frequently as I wanted. Second, at this point in the season, I think the interest in non-contenders (the Florida Marlins are next alphabetically) is pretty limited. Finally, in September, with all the minor league callups, the mix of players for teams not in the pennant race can get pretty diluted. So I'm going to pick these based on my interest.

Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?

What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs. 

What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.

The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.

Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.

Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year). 

All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  86-76.

Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.

Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.

Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.