Next Up: The St. Louis Cardinals

Let me start out with a comment about the Dodgers, whom the Pirates swept in three weekend games. Last Thursday, I wrote, in describing the Pirates' outlook against Los Angeles,

Well, it's pretty obvious: To beat the Dodgers, you have to get to their bullpen. The problem is, to do that, you have to get by their starters.

I can't really take a victory lap for that prediction. Yes, the nine run seventh inning rally on national TV Sunday night was dramatic. But prior to that, the Dodgers bullpen had pitched seven innings and allowed just one run. The Pirates were able to get to Dodgers starters throughout the series. Dodgers starters allowed 13 earned runs in 15 innings, a 7.80 ERA. Dodgers relievers not named Jim Johnson allowed three earned runs in 8.2 innings, a 3.12 ERA.

Anyway, now we move on to a three-game showdown in St. Louis between the two teams with best records in the National League. The games tonight and Thursday will appear on MLB Network, with Wednesday's game on ESPN. The national cable networks will be hoping for a continuation of the series to date, which has seen the Cards and Bucs split ten games, with five going into extra innings. Jeff Locke, Gerrit Cole, and Francisco Liriano will oppose Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, and Lance Lynn. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Cardinals have played well all season. They're 15-8 over the past 30 days, the third best record in the National League, trailing only the 16-8 Cubs and 16-7 Phillies. (The Pirates, at 13-9, are fifth.) They've scored 3.9 runs per game, the sixth fewest in the league over the stretch, but they've given up only 2.7 runs per game, a full run per game fewer than the second-best team, the Giants. With that differential, you could make an argument---I wouldn't, but you could--that their 15-8 record understates how good they've been.

What's Going Right? The Cardinals story this year has been one of pitching. Over the last 30 days, the starters have a 2.57 ERA and the relievers 1.92, both the lowest in the league by a lot. Cardinals pitchers generate the most soft contact in the league. They don't have eye-popping strikeout or walk rates, but they obviously get the job done. There are a few indicators that suggest they may have been a little lucky over the past 30 days: second-lowest batting average on balls in play, highest strand rate (percentage of baserunners who don't score), second-lowest percentage of fly balls going over the fence. Outliers for those metrics tend not to last. Also, over the course of the full season, they've allowed an absurdly low .186 batting average with runners in scoring position. It seems I mention this every time I discuss the Cardinals, but outlier batting averages with runners in scoring position are not replicable. Much was made of the Cards' ability to hit with runners in scoring position in 2013, but here are their full-season averages since 2012: .264, .330, .254, .251. That .330 for Cardinals batters in 2013 was a fluke, as is this year's .186 for pitchers. Still, all these arguments are saying only that the Cardinals may not remain as outstanding as they've been so far. This is still a very good pitching team.

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been mediocre. Over the last 30 days, the Cardinals are 14th in the 15-team National League in batting average (.240), tenth in on base percentage (.311), and eighth in slugging percentage (.389). They've been the fourth-hardest team in the league to strike out, and when they make contact, it's been good: fourth-highest rate of hard contact and third-lowest rate of soft contact in the league. However, they've hit a below-average number of fly balls over the fence, and they're tied for the fifth-fewest stolen bases in the league over the past 30 days.

Who's Hot? Four players have carried the offense over the past 30 days, led by Rookie of the Year candidate and center fielder Randal Grichuk, who leads the team with a .671 slugging percentage and 19 RBI and is second in batting (.329), on base percentage (.389), home runs (7), and tied for second in runs scored (13). Third baseman Matt Carpenter leads the Cardinals with eight homers and fifteen runs scored and is second to Grichuk at slugging, .628. Another rookie, left fielder Stephen Piscotty, has a .328/.375/.431 slash line filling in for the injured Matt Holliday. Pending free agent right fielder Jason Heyward leads the team with a .338 batting average, .400 on base percentage, and seven stolen bases over the past 30 days while rarely striking out and sparkling in the field as he continues his recovery from a slow start (.251/.295/.379 slash line through June 9, .323/.389/.481 since). 

Let's just say this about the starting pitchers: Tonight's Cardinals starter, Martinez, has a 3.00 ERA over the last 30 days, while tomorrow night's starter, Michael Wacha, has a 2.88 ERA. Those are the two highest ERAs by Cardinals starters over the past 30 days. Same story with the bullpen: Left-handed specialist Randy Choate (12 games, 5.0 innings pitched, 21 batters faced) has a 3.60 ERA, and closer Trevor Rosenthal has a 4.50 ERA. (Since surrendering four runs to the Pirates in the two games prior to the All-Star Break, Rosenthal's got a win and seven saves in nine games with a 1.93 ERA). After those two, the third-worst reliever ERA on the club is that of Jonathan Broxton, another trade deadline pickup, who had a 5.89 ERA in 40 games with the Brewers this year but only 2.08 in his first five games as a Cardinal.

Who's Not? The infield, outside of Carpenter, has struggled of late. Over the last 30 days, shortstop Jhonny Peralta's hitting .221/.272/.395, second baseman Kolten Wong .208/.276/.292, and the first baseman tandem of Mark Reynolds and trade deadline pickup Brandon Moss .195/.303/.273. That's a combined .208 batting average, .283 on base percentage, and .320 slugging percentage for a third of the lineup.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates come into the series on a roll offensively, scoring an average of five runs per game over the last 30 days, second only to the altitude-enhanced Rockies. They'll need the bats to continue to perform at a high level against the best pitching staff in baseball. It's only the second week in August, but if the Pirates are going to avoid the coin flip that is the wild card play-in game, they probably need to take at least two of three in St. Louis, where they're 0-3 so far this year.

Next Up: The St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have finished in first or second in the National League Central in each of the past six years. Since the end of the 20th century, the Cardinals have been first or second every year but 2003, 2007, and 2008, and 2007 was the only year they didn't have a winning record. Starting in 2000, their .563 winning percentage is the best in the National League, 28 games ahead of Atlanta and 70 ahead of Los Angeles.

Yet, there are reasons to think their reign could be nearing an end. As Travis Sawchik pointed out Monday in the Pittsburgh Tribune, the team has key players (Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holiday, and Jhonny Peralta) over 30. Third baseman Matt Carpenter will turn 30 in November. The Cardinals' weighted average batters' age is 29.0, older than the Pirates (27.8) and Cubs (27.2). Their farm system's good--ESPN's Keith Law ranked the Cardinals 13th overall--but the up-and-coming Pirates and Cubs rank higher (seventh and first, respectively). And, of course, Wainwright, one of the best pitchers in baseball, is lost for the season with torn Achilles tendon. 

Several players have started slowly. Jason Heyward, acquired in a trade with the Braves and entering his free agent year, is batting .217 with a .261 on base percentage and .349 slugging percentage. Molina's slash line is similarly punchless, .246/.306/.308. Mark Reynolds, expected to platoon at first with Matt Adams, is hitting .172 with one homer. Starter John Lackey's got a 4.21 ERA and the 10th-lowest strikeout rate in the league, and of course Wainwright and his 1.44 ERA are lost for the season. 

So of course they're second in the league in batting average (.274), second in on base percentage (.339), and fourth in slugging percentage (.408). Of course they lead the league in overall ERA (2.43), starters' ERA (2.85), and bullpen ERA (1.59). Of course they're tied with the Mets for the most wins in the National League (15), they have the best winning percentage in baseball (.714), they lead the Central by 2.5 games, and they have easily the best run differential in the league (+37: 92 scored, 55 allowed). Were the season to end today, a pretty good case could be made for Carpenter for MVP, as he's first in the league in doubles (13) and runs (21), second in slugging percentage (.651) and OPS (1.089), fifth in batting average (.372), and eighth in on base percentage (.438).

In short, they're clearly the best opponents the Pirates have faced this year as they open a weekend series at Busch Stadium. The Pirates will face Lance Lynn (1-2, 3.63 ERA), Lackey, and Michael Wacha (4-0, 2.42 ERA). The Pirates' bats have shown signs of life of late (they're fourth in the league in runs scored over the past two weeks), and they'll need them against a Cardinals pitching staff that's been pretty formidable so far this year.

Flyover: St. Louis Cardinals

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Last time up I wrote about the Los Angeles Angels, so let's stay on that topic and hit on the other team that's roared to a divisional lead of late, the St. Louis Cardinals.

How Are They Doing Lately? They're 17-11 over the past 30 days, tied with the Nationals for the second-most wins in the National League. A month ago, they were in second place in the Central division, two and a half games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, the Brewers have collapsed, and the Cardinals enter play today leading the Central, 2.5 ahead of the Pirates and six up on the fading Brewers after taking two of three against Milwaukee over the past three days. Their ticket to the postseason is pretty much punched. They've scored 4.0 runs per game over the past 30 days, ninth in the league, but they've given up only 3.4, the third fewest.

What's Going Right? The team's ERA over the past 30 days is 3.05, third best in the league. There are a couple items that make me think there's been some luck involved here. The Redbirds have allowed a batting average on balls in play, .275, that's well below the league average of .301, and they've stranded 78% of batters who've reached base compared to a league average of 73%. Outliers that large are unlikely to persist. There's no question that they've been good, though, as both the starters' 3.01 ERA and relievers' 3.12 ERA are third in the league. They haven't racked up a lot of strikeouts (they're third to last at 19.5% of batters faced) but they've walked a below-average number of hitters (6.9%, fifth lowest). And remember the On The Field Of Play mantra: It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. No team has been as good as the Cardinals at throwing strikes over the past 30 days--52% of pitches in the strike zone, best in the league--and they're second in the league at getting strikes, getting batters to swing at 32% of pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, opposing hitters are making contact at lower-than-average rates, and the contact's been weak, with 13% of fly balls going to the infield, most in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been middling at best over the past 30 days: .257 batting average, .331 on base percentage, .353 slugging percentage compared to league averages of .253, .314, and .383, respectively. The standout has been the on base percentage, buoyed by a third-in-the-league walk rate of 8.4% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 7.4%. The Cards haven't hit for power--.096 isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), fourth-lowest in the league--and they haven't stolen bases (last in the league with five stolen bases but tied for second with nine caught stealing--they really ought to give up on SBs). Their hitters have been selective, though, swinging at just 29.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league, and making contact on 80.5% of their swings, fourth-highest. I will point out that back in March, when I projected the Cardinals to win their division, I wrote:

Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position [that the Cards maintained in 2013], by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up.

They are batting .255 with runners in scoring position this year. That's not bad (the league average is .250) but it does illustrate that last year's Redbirds, third in the league in runs scored per game, were due for a decline. We're getting it.

Who's Hot? Adam Wainwright is the team's ace starter, and over the last 30 days, he has a 4-2 record and a 2.66 ERA. That makes him fourth in ERA on the team among starters with ten or more innings pitched. Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, and Marco Gonzales have combined for a 6-1 record and 1.69 ERA. Closer Trevor Rosenthal, who appeared to be on thin ice for a spell over the summer (from July 4 to August 18, he had a 4.94 ERA over 20 appearances), has eight saves and a 1.54 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup men Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness have ERAs of 1.76 and 2.13, respectively. Maness has allowed no unintentional walks over 12.2 innings. The key player on offense has been left fielder Matt Holliday, who is putting up why-don't-they-walk-him-more numbers: ninth in the league in batting at .311, eighth in on base percentage at .393, tenth in slugging at .553, second in RBI with 25, tied for third with six homers. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta's batting .260 but his four doubles and four homers are second on the club to Holliday, giving him a .420 slugging percentage that's second on the team. Highly touted rookie outfielder Oscar Taveras, disappointing much of the year (a horrid .197/.225/.276 slash line at the All-Star break), has a promising .311 batting average over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? The only starter who with an ERA over 3.00 over the past 30 days is trade deadline pickup John Lackey, who's at 4.64. On offense, first baseman Matt Adams has been cold (.174/.270/.314 slash line) and the team's two best players from last season, third baseman Matt Carpenter and catcher Yadier Molina, haven't contributed much. Carpenter's batting .214 over the past 30 days with a punchless .265 slugging percentage, while Molina's .254 average has been accompanied by an also punchless .296 slugging percentage.

What's the Outlook? The Cardinals should win their division but will have the worst record among National League divisional champs, meaning they'll face the second-best team, at this point the Dodgers, with Los Angeles enjoying home-field advantage, in the Divisional Series. This isn't as strong as club as last year's Redbirds. The pitching's been good but a bit lucky, and the hitters have had less pop and haven't maintained their stratospheric batting average with runners in scoring position. I'd be surprised to see them return to the Fall Classic, despite their formidable starting rotation.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  86-76.

Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.

Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.

Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.

The Most Miserable Time of the Year

No, not the holidays. I’m down with the holidays.

I’m talking baseball. There aren’t any games, obviously. The biggest news is contract signings, which, because of the amount of money Jhonny Peralta, who was suspended for 50 games last season, is getting, has led to a new round of teeth-gnashing over PEDs. And the Hall of Fame ballot was released.

I don’t know what annoys me more, articles about PEDs or articles about the Hall of Fame. (Lately, there has been a convergence, amplifying the annoyance.) They have nothing to do with what goes on On The Field of Play. Worse, the Hall of Fame voting season allows sportswriters who don’t even write about baseball (really: you don't have to be currently following baseball to vote) to pontificate about a game that you and I know more about.

And the controversies…The cause célèbre in recent years is Jack Morris. Personally, I wouldn’t vote for him.* But if he gets in, as I expect he will, good for him. No hard feelings. It won’t ruin the Hall for me. But you can be sure that the pro- and anti-Morris prose will go over the top, what with this being his last year on the ballot.

I get more upset by deserving players who don’t get in. Ron Santo, probably one of the ten best third basemen of all time, didn’t get in until 28 years after he retired and two years after he died. That was classy. A Hall of Fame without Tim Raines, possibly the second best leadoff hitter of all time, doesn’t work for me. I get more upset by exclusion than inclusion.

But we are now in the midst of sportswriters and baseball fans and all sorts of baseball commentators talking about how nobody should get in who isn't of the same caliber as Willie Mays, or how nobody should get in at all because Barry Bonds took steroids (some writers returned blank ballots last year to "protest" PEDs that Raines and Craig Biggio, to name two, didn't take), mixed in with people complaining about how much money players make today.

When do pitchers and catchers report?

*Morris was a regular starter from 1979 to 1994. During that period, there were seven pitchers with over 2,800 innings pitched: Morris, Charlie Hough, Dennis Martinez, Bob Welch, Nolan Ryan, Frank Tanana, and Dave Stieb. Of them, Morris had the worst career ERA, even adjusted for playing in a hitter’s park at Tiger Stadium. His most-wins-in-the-1980s can be attributed to fantastic run support: 4.9 per game, 0.6 better than the league average. That's a lot. None of the others got more than 0.2 over average. So he had a high ERA (3.90--that'd the worst among pitchers in the Hall) and a won-lost record that as much a product of his teammates as his doing.