Next Up: Last Chance to Win the National League Central

Top of the National League Central, morning of September 28, one week left in the season:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  98 58 .628  --
Pittsburgh 95 61 .609   3
Chicago    90 65 .581 7.5

I think we can be fairly confident in saying two things:

1. By taking two of three against the Cubs over the weekend, the Pirates have probably wrapped up home field for the wild card play-in.
2. If the Pirates are going to catch the Cardinals--who finish their season against the execrable Atlanta Braves, while the Pirates play the almost-as-execrable Cincinnati Reds who nonethless have a 10-6 record against Pittsburgh--they need to sweep the next three games at home against St. Louis.

I'd forgotten about this, but do you know how the baseball tiebreaker rules could hose the Cardinals and Pirates? In the NFL, there are all sorts of convoluted measures (won-lost within the division and conference, point differential, net touchdowns, among others) that determine the seeding if two teams finish with identical records. In baseball, they just play another game. Let's say the Pirates sweep St. Louis and then each team wins two of three this weekend. They'd be tied for first with identical 100-62 records. They would then be required to play a game in Pittsburgh next Monday to determine the division champion, with the loser hosting the Cubs on Wednesday for the wild card game. That would put the losing team, which would be the team that currently has the best or second-best record in baseball, at a significant disadvantage, as they would be playing full-bore baseball, not resting regular hitters or pitchers, for seven straight games. The Cubs could rest regulars and would have a day off on Monday.

(One thing a tie wouldn't do is mess up the teams' rotations as it did last year, when the Pirates burned Gerrit Cole in the last game of the season in a vain attempt to catch the Cardinals, leaving Edinson Volquez to get lit up in the wild card game (five runs allowed in five innings) against 2014 postseason force of nature Madison Bumgarner. This year, if the teams are tied and they have to play a game Monday, it looks to me as if the Pirates would go with Cole (18-8, 2.60 ERA) on Monday and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs Wednesday. The Cardinals would go with Michael Wacha (17-6, 3.15 ERA) on Monday and Jaime Garcia (10-5, 2.36 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs. All four are better options than Volquez was, in my opinion.) 

Speaking of the Cubs, last night's game emphasized the risk of facing Chicago for a one-game play-in. Here are a couple tables.

LOWEST ERA ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	ERA	W	L	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	0.80	11	1	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	.422	16
Kris Medlen	2012	19	0.94	9	0	12	2	1	95.1	64	12	10	5	14	95	0.818	.484	34
Roger Clemens	1990	12	0.97	9	2	12	5	4	92.2	79	12	10	0	19	89	1.058	.562	61
Tom Seaver	1971	16	1.10	10	4	16	12	2	139.1	83	20	17	6	30	143	0.811	.478	42
Spud Chandler	1943	14	1.12	10	2	14	11	2	121.0	90	23	15	1	20	65	0.909	.476	46
Bob Gibson	1968	16	1.19	11	4	16	14	7	144.0	97	25	19	6	27	150	0.861	.480	50
Johan Santana	2004	15	1.21	13	0	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	.443	18
Larry Gura	1981	11	1.25	7	3	11	7	1	86.2	59	17	12	3	17	27	0.877	.507	48
Dean Chance	1964	23	1.29	15	4	20	12	8	167.0	112	28	24	4	50	123	0.970	.490	44
Gary Peters	1966	12	1.29	7	3	12	7	2	97.2	67	16	14	4	13	58	0.819	.500	46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.
(OPS+ is OPS adjusted for park and season, with an average value of 100. Arrieta's OPS+ of 16 means that hitters have fared 84% worse than average against him.)

LOWEST OPS ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	OPS	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	.422	11	1	0.80	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	16
Hoyt Wilhelm	1965	35	.442	6	2	1.33	0	0	0	81.0	41	15	12	5	17	62	0.716	31
Johan Santana	2004	15	.443	13	0	1.21	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	18
Nolan Ryan	1986	13	.444	6	2	2.27	13	0	0	83.1	40	23	21	4	34	100	0.888	26
Clayton Kershaw	2015	13	.453	9	1	1.48	13	2	1	97.0	61	17	16	4	14	121	0.773	24
Joe Horlen	1964	18	.456	7	4	1.56	17	6	1	126.2	71	28	22	5	40	89	0.876	34
Pedro Martinez	2000	15	.458	9	3	2.03	15	4	2	111.0	66	25	25	8	12	144	0.703	19
Sandy Koufax	1965	22	.459	11	5	1.94	20	13	6	166.2	92	39	36	12	37	187	0.774	36
Don Wilson	1971	15	.466	10	4	1.43	15	11	1	126.0	72	27	20	7	35	88	0.849	39
Nolan Ryan	1972	17	.468	8	8	1.41	17	10	4	140.2	74	29	22	2	75	173	1.059	43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.

The Cubs' Jake Arrieta, who will undoubtedly pitch in the wild card game, is basically having the best second half in baseball history, at least since the All-Star game began in 1933.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Cardinals are 16-12 over the past 30 days, tying them with the Dodgers for the fifth best record in the league, a half game behind the 17-12 Pirates and a game behind the 17-11 Cubs. They've scored 4.3 runs per game during the period, the fifth fewest in the league (the Pirates, at 4.7, are seventh in scoring) and they've given up 4.4 per game, the seventh fewest (the Pirates are second at 4.0). Yes, that means the Cardinals have managed to maintain the fifth-best record in the National League over the past 30 days despite being outscored, 122-120. Lucky? Yeah, a little, though the Dodgers, with an identical 16-12 record, have scored only one more run than they've allowed.

When the Pirates last played the Cardinals, at the beginning of the month, I wrote:

Their 2.67 ERA to date is the lowest in a non-strike-shortened year since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, and they're on pace to win 105 games, which would be the most in the majors since the same franchise won 105 in 2004.

They've slowed down some. The team ERA is now 2.91, now "only" second in a non-strike post-1968 season, trailing the 1969 Orioles (2.83) and barely ahead of the 1988 Mets (2.908; the Cards are at 2.907). And they're on pace to win 102, not 105. They're a little banged up, with starting catcher Yadier Molina out with a thumb injury and starting pitcher Carlos Martinez done for the season with shoulder stiffness, but they've gotten other injured players (left fielder Matt Holliday, first baseman Matt Adams, center fielder Randal Grichuk) back from the disabled list this month.

What's Going Right? Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.86 over the past 30 days, fifth lowest in the league. Only by the standards of the team's full-year performance can that be considered a disappointment, and they've led the league in inducing ground balls. The Cardinals hitters have been middle-of-the-pack over the past 30 days in terms of batting average (.264, eighth in the league) and slugging percentage .425, sixth), but they're third in on base percentage (.339), with the fifth highest walk rate in the league. They have 32 infield hits over the past month, easily the most in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Cardinals batters strike out a lot (fourth highest rate in the league over the past 30 days) and they've been pretty inept basestealers (seven stolen, six caught stealing). They've hit 26 homers, tied with the Pirates for the sixth fewest. The bullpen's had a 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth highest in the league, though it's 3.97 without yesterday's ninth inning, when Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness allowed seven runs to the Brewers, coughing up a 3-1 lead and ending the team's home season on a sour note. The relievers have struck out 28% of the batters they've faced over the past 30 days, the most in the league, but they've allowed homers on 16% of fly balls, second highest in the league and given up the lowest rate of soft contact in the league. 

Who's Hot? The loss of Martinez stings, as he'd pitched better than his 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days would indicate, with the second-highest strikeout rate on the team. With him out, the Cardinals' top two starters of late have been Jaime Garcia  and John Lackey, both of whom the Pirates will miss. The offense has been carried by three players. Third baseman Matt Carpenter is leading the club over the past 30 days with a .304 batting average, .643 slugging percentage (fifth in the league) and eight home runs (tied for sixth); he's also compiled an excellent .376 on base percentage, resulting in a 1.019 OPS (fifth). Right fielder Jason Heyward's .405 on base percentage is twelfth in the league over the past 30 days and he's batting .303 with a .424 slugging percentage. Rookie Stephen Piscotty has played first, left, and right while generating a .302/.378/.462 slash line. In more limited play, another rookie, Tommy Pham, has hit .317/.364/.650, primarily in center but also in left.

Who's Not? None of the three starters the Pirates will face have fared very well over the past 30 days. Tonight's starter, Lance Lynn, has a 4.38 ERA and has walked as many batters as he's struck out, and Tuesday's starter, Michael Wacha, has a 6.75 ERA with 14 walks and five homers allowed over his last 20 innings. Wednesday's start goes to lefty Tyler Lyons, making his first start since September 2. He was a spot starter in three stints with the club prior to the All-Star break, compiling a 5.02 ERA. Since returning to St. Louis for a couple weeks August and when rosters expanded in September, he's got a 2.53 ERA in 21.1 innings, with a good 18:3 strikeout:walk ratio and a not-so-good five home runs allowed. On offense, the team's gotten little production over the past 30 days from shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.244 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .302 slugging percentage--by contrast, Jordy Mercer, having a tough year with the bat, is hitting .262/.323/.369 over the past 30 days) and none from catcher, where Molina and Tony Cruz have combined for a .206/.268/.265 slash line. 

What's the Outlook? In a way, if the Pirates don't sweep the Cardinals, I hope they drop two of three. As long as the Cubs don't play out of their minds, that would cement the home field wild card game for Pittsburgh--no chance of catching the Cards, no chance of getting caught by the Cubs--and allow them to give a lot of players some rest. But sweeping the Cardinals, yeah, that'd be fun. Series sweeps are pretty unlikely, and I don't think we'll see one here, but this is not the invulnerable Cardinals team we saw earlier in the season. There are chinks in their armor.

Flyover: St. Louis Cardinals

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Last time up I wrote about the Los Angeles Angels, so let's stay on that topic and hit on the other team that's roared to a divisional lead of late, the St. Louis Cardinals.

How Are They Doing Lately? They're 17-11 over the past 30 days, tied with the Nationals for the second-most wins in the National League. A month ago, they were in second place in the Central division, two and a half games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, the Brewers have collapsed, and the Cardinals enter play today leading the Central, 2.5 ahead of the Pirates and six up on the fading Brewers after taking two of three against Milwaukee over the past three days. Their ticket to the postseason is pretty much punched. They've scored 4.0 runs per game over the past 30 days, ninth in the league, but they've given up only 3.4, the third fewest.

What's Going Right? The team's ERA over the past 30 days is 3.05, third best in the league. There are a couple items that make me think there's been some luck involved here. The Redbirds have allowed a batting average on balls in play, .275, that's well below the league average of .301, and they've stranded 78% of batters who've reached base compared to a league average of 73%. Outliers that large are unlikely to persist. There's no question that they've been good, though, as both the starters' 3.01 ERA and relievers' 3.12 ERA are third in the league. They haven't racked up a lot of strikeouts (they're third to last at 19.5% of batters faced) but they've walked a below-average number of hitters (6.9%, fifth lowest). And remember the On The Field Of Play mantra: It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. No team has been as good as the Cardinals at throwing strikes over the past 30 days--52% of pitches in the strike zone, best in the league--and they're second in the league at getting strikes, getting batters to swing at 32% of pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, opposing hitters are making contact at lower-than-average rates, and the contact's been weak, with 13% of fly balls going to the infield, most in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been middling at best over the past 30 days: .257 batting average, .331 on base percentage, .353 slugging percentage compared to league averages of .253, .314, and .383, respectively. The standout has been the on base percentage, buoyed by a third-in-the-league walk rate of 8.4% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 7.4%. The Cards haven't hit for power--.096 isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), fourth-lowest in the league--and they haven't stolen bases (last in the league with five stolen bases but tied for second with nine caught stealing--they really ought to give up on SBs). Their hitters have been selective, though, swinging at just 29.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league, and making contact on 80.5% of their swings, fourth-highest. I will point out that back in March, when I projected the Cardinals to win their division, I wrote:

Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position [that the Cards maintained in 2013], by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up.

They are batting .255 with runners in scoring position this year. That's not bad (the league average is .250) but it does illustrate that last year's Redbirds, third in the league in runs scored per game, were due for a decline. We're getting it.

Who's Hot? Adam Wainwright is the team's ace starter, and over the last 30 days, he has a 4-2 record and a 2.66 ERA. That makes him fourth in ERA on the team among starters with ten or more innings pitched. Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, and Marco Gonzales have combined for a 6-1 record and 1.69 ERA. Closer Trevor Rosenthal, who appeared to be on thin ice for a spell over the summer (from July 4 to August 18, he had a 4.94 ERA over 20 appearances), has eight saves and a 1.54 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup men Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness have ERAs of 1.76 and 2.13, respectively. Maness has allowed no unintentional walks over 12.2 innings. The key player on offense has been left fielder Matt Holliday, who is putting up why-don't-they-walk-him-more numbers: ninth in the league in batting at .311, eighth in on base percentage at .393, tenth in slugging at .553, second in RBI with 25, tied for third with six homers. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta's batting .260 but his four doubles and four homers are second on the club to Holliday, giving him a .420 slugging percentage that's second on the team. Highly touted rookie outfielder Oscar Taveras, disappointing much of the year (a horrid .197/.225/.276 slash line at the All-Star break), has a promising .311 batting average over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? The only starter who with an ERA over 3.00 over the past 30 days is trade deadline pickup John Lackey, who's at 4.64. On offense, first baseman Matt Adams has been cold (.174/.270/.314 slash line) and the team's two best players from last season, third baseman Matt Carpenter and catcher Yadier Molina, haven't contributed much. Carpenter's batting .214 over the past 30 days with a punchless .265 slugging percentage, while Molina's .254 average has been accompanied by an also punchless .296 slugging percentage.

What's the Outlook? The Cardinals should win their division but will have the worst record among National League divisional champs, meaning they'll face the second-best team, at this point the Dodgers, with Los Angeles enjoying home-field advantage, in the Divisional Series. This isn't as strong as club as last year's Redbirds. The pitching's been good but a bit lucky, and the hitters have had less pop and haven't maintained their stratospheric batting average with runners in scoring position. I'd be surprised to see them return to the Fall Classic, despite their formidable starting rotation.

Why Guys Have Troubles With Commitments

First baseman/DH Albert Pujols signed a ten-year, $240 million contract with the Angels after the 2011 season. The contract's back-loaded, paying Pujols $12 million in 2012, $16 million last year, $23 million this season, and $1 million more every year from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, he will be a 41-year-old making $30 million.

First point: If Pujols were to stop playing today, he'd be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Or at least he should be. He has the seventh-highest slugging percentage (.597), the eighth-highest on-base plus slugging (exactly 1.000), and the 25th-most homers (508) of all time.

Second point: The contract hasn't worked out that well. Here are Pujols's numbers starting in his last of three MVP seasons, 2009:

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2009 ★	STL	160	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	16	4	115	64	.327	.443	.658	1.101	189
2010 ★	STL	159	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	14	4	103	76	.312	.414	.596	1.011	173
2011	STL	147	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	9	1	61	58	.299	.366	.541	.906	148
2012	LAA	154	607	85	173	50	0	30	105	8	1	52	76	.285	.343	.516	.859	138
2013	LAA	99	391	49	101	19	0	17	64	1	1	40	55	.258	.330	.437	.767	116
2014	LAA	72	290	40	74	16	0	16	44	2	0	23	36	.255	.315	.476	.791	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2014.

That's not pretty. 

Today at Hardball Talk, Aaron Gleeman noted:

Pujols’ power has remained strong throughout his overall struggles and his 16 home runs rank eighth among AL hitters, but that comes with a lowly .255 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And after a decade of walking more often than he struck out for the Cardinals he’s whiffed 36 times compared to just 23 walks in 72 total games.
He’s been better than he was last season, but just barely, and overall Pujols looks nothing like the all-time great hitter he was in St. Louis. Sadly it was just a hot start for a banged-up 34-year-old with another seven seasons and $189 million left on his contract.

Insult to injury: Which of these two first basemen would you want?

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
Player A	325	305	30	91	23	3	7	32	2	1	13	60	.298	.326	.462	.788	141
Player B	334	304	42	77	19	1	13	44	2	1	24	45	.253	.309	.451	.760	137

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/23/2014.

Player B has gone deep more, but has a markedly lower batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. So we can reasonably expect that Player B's superior runs scored and driven in are a function of where he bats in the order than a reflection of skill, since Player A is pretty clearly the better hitter. Here's another stat: Adjusted for home park, Player A's on base plus slugging (OPS) is 29% better than average this year. Player B's is only 3% better.

Player A is St. Louis Cardinal first basemen this season. Player B is Los Angeles Angel first basemen this season. Primary Cardinals 1B Matt Adams is making $22,484,000 less than the primary Angels 1B this season.