Why Guys Have Troubles With Commitments

First baseman/DH Albert Pujols signed a ten-year, $240 million contract with the Angels after the 2011 season. The contract's back-loaded, paying Pujols $12 million in 2012, $16 million last year, $23 million this season, and $1 million more every year from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, he will be a 41-year-old making $30 million.

First point: If Pujols were to stop playing today, he'd be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Or at least he should be. He has the seventh-highest slugging percentage (.597), the eighth-highest on-base plus slugging (exactly 1.000), and the 25th-most homers (508) of all time.

Second point: The contract hasn't worked out that well. Here are Pujols's numbers starting in his last of three MVP seasons, 2009:

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2009 ★	STL	160	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	16	4	115	64	.327	.443	.658	1.101	189
2010 ★	STL	159	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	14	4	103	76	.312	.414	.596	1.011	173
2011	STL	147	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	9	1	61	58	.299	.366	.541	.906	148
2012	LAA	154	607	85	173	50	0	30	105	8	1	52	76	.285	.343	.516	.859	138
2013	LAA	99	391	49	101	19	0	17	64	1	1	40	55	.258	.330	.437	.767	116
2014	LAA	72	290	40	74	16	0	16	44	2	0	23	36	.255	.315	.476	.791	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2014.

That's not pretty. 

Today at Hardball Talk, Aaron Gleeman noted:

Pujols’ power has remained strong throughout his overall struggles and his 16 home runs rank eighth among AL hitters, but that comes with a lowly .255 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And after a decade of walking more often than he struck out for the Cardinals he’s whiffed 36 times compared to just 23 walks in 72 total games.
He’s been better than he was last season, but just barely, and overall Pujols looks nothing like the all-time great hitter he was in St. Louis. Sadly it was just a hot start for a banged-up 34-year-old with another seven seasons and $189 million left on his contract.

Insult to injury: Which of these two first basemen would you want?

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
Player A	325	305	30	91	23	3	7	32	2	1	13	60	.298	.326	.462	.788	141
Player B	334	304	42	77	19	1	13	44	2	1	24	45	.253	.309	.451	.760	137

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/23/2014.

Player B has gone deep more, but has a markedly lower batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. So we can reasonably expect that Player B's superior runs scored and driven in are a function of where he bats in the order than a reflection of skill, since Player A is pretty clearly the better hitter. Here's another stat: Adjusted for home park, Player A's on base plus slugging (OPS) is 29% better than average this year. Player B's is only 3% better.

Player A is St. Louis Cardinal first basemen this season. Player B is Los Angeles Angel first basemen this season. Primary Cardinals 1B Matt Adams is making $22,484,000 less than the primary Angels 1B this season.

Dillon Gee, Cy Young Contender

Nice research by Aaron Gleeman over at Hardball Talk - since last May 30, the Mets' Dillon Gee (for those of you who aren't Mets fans or fantasy players - he's a righthanded starting pitcher) has the fifth best ERA in the majors. Here's the article. Here's the key quote:

Check out where his 2.66 ERA ranks among all MLB pitchers with at least 20 starts during that nearly year-long span:
     Jose Fernandez    1.56
    Clayton Kershaw   1.89
    Zack Greinke      2.29
    Max Scherzer      2.53
    Dillon Gee        2.66

The two obvious reactions: (1) Dillon Gee, huh? (2) Man, that Jose Fernandez.

Twins Fans, Meet Ricky Nolasco

The Twins have signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million contract, the largest in team history. Twins fans may be unfamiliar with a pitcher who's toiled for fairly anonymous Marlins teams most of his career. Here's what you need to know.

What's Good About Him? A few things:

• He was pretty good last year: 13-11, 3.70 ERA split between the Marlins and the Dodgers.
• He's durable. Over the past six seasons, he's started 186 games, which ties him for 19th among all pitchers.
• By some key measures, he's been pretty effective. He's struck out 17.1% of the batters he's faced over the past three seasons, walked 5.4%, and allowed homers to 2.2%. Last year the Twins' ratios were 15.7%, 7.3%, and 2.7%. So he's likely to get more strikeouts and allow fewer walks and homers than the typical Twins pitcher last year (granted, a low bar).

What's Not So Good About Him? Over the past three seasons, there have been only eight pitchers with 475+ innings who walked fewer than 2.2 batters per nine innings, struck out 6.6 or more, and gave up fewer then 0.9 homers. Here they are:

Player	ERA	BB/9	SO/9	HR/9	BAbip	IP	GS	W	L	H	R	ER	BB	SO
Clayton Kershaw	2.21	2.18	9.15	0.54	.266	697.0	99	51	23	508	191	171	169	709
Jered Weaver	2.77	2.15	7.11	0.89	.253	578.2	87	49	21	468	186	178	138	457
Cliff Lee	2.80	1.38	9.01	0.89	.298	666.1	93	37	25	597	222	207	102	667
Jordan Zimmermann	3.12	1.80	6.91	0.77	.287	570.1	90	39	28	532	212	198	114	438
David Price	3.13	2.16	8.31	0.78	.289	622.0	92	42	26	543	234	216	149	574
Cole Hamels	3.15	2.02	8.46	0.88	.285	651.1	95	39	29	564	242	228	146	612
Doug Fister	3.30	1.81	6.78	0.61	.301	586.2	89	35	32	578	240	215	118	442
Ricky Nolasco	4.29	2.07	6.61	0.83	.321	596.1	97	35	36	653	307	284	137	438

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 11/29/2013.

Do you see the problem? Those are six All-Stars, a solid if unheralded pitcher in Fister...plus Ricky Nolasco. His ERA is almost a full run higher than everybody else's. More than two runs higher than Kershaw's.

Note that I added a column, BAbip. That's batting average on balls in play: how he does on at-bats that don't end in a strikeout or homer. Nolasco's .321 is the worst on the list. It's also worse than the NL average of .297. So while Nolasco does a good job keeping the ball in the park and avoiding free passes, when batters make non-homer contact, they get hits off him. That's why he's had such a lackluster ERA.

So What Should Twins Fans Expect? Nolasco has given up too many hits (9.9 per nine innings over the past three years, 1.2 more than the NL average) and runs to be a top pitcher, negating his fine control and anti-homer skills. Having strong up-the-middle defense should help him some, though he doesn't get an above-average number of ground balls that the double play combo of Florimon and Dozier will turn into outs, nor fly balls that Aaron Hicks will chase down. I'd expect an average or slightly better-than-average ERA and 200 or so innings, but nothing spectacular.

For a more detailed analysis, check out Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman's take.