The Precedent of 1984. No, Not That 1984

No book changed my life more than the 1982 Bill James Baseball Abstract. As a kid, I was a baseball fan and a numbers geek. The 1982 Abstract (1982 was the year of the first mass-published Abstract) was the first time I saw how closely the game and the numbers could work together. It deepened my love for the game, and that's stayed with me all these years.

One of the controversies that James addressed was the old saw that "baseball is 70% (or 80%, or whatever) pitching." In the Abstract (it might not have been 1982; cut me some slack, this was over 30 years ago), James analytically demonstrated that the actual number is a lot lower, like 50% or 45% or something. (I don't recall exactly. See the last parenthetical caveat.)

I don't remember the exact year nor the exact figure, but I do remember that it was really controversial. The traditionalists--and there were a lot more anti-stats types back then than there are now--jumped all over it, using it as evidence that James didn't know what he was talking about.

Then 1984 happened. It was like an episode of Laverne and Shirley, when they'd be talking about morons or losers or something and then Lenny and Squiqqy appeared. (This may be the first Laverne and Shirley analogy in a baseball blog.) If baseball's mostly pitching, then the better-pitching teams should be the most successful, right?

In 1984, a National League team led the league in ERA with 3.11. Overall, the team allowed 3.50 runs per game, also the lowest in the league. So the team clearly had pitching, which was viewed as the key to success. On the other hand, its offense was weak. The prior year, the team had been third in batting average, fifth in on base percentage, and fifth in slugging percentage. In 1984, those ranks fell to seventh, eleventh, and seventh.

OK, before continuing with 1984, let me point out a similar team: The 2015 Bucs. The 2014 Pirates were third in batting, second in on base percentage, and third in slugging. This year, even after yesterday's outburst, they're 13th in batting and on base and 14th in slugging. But the pitching's been stellar: third in ERA (just .02 behind the Mets), third in runs allowed per game. 

Now, if you buy that baseball is 80% or 70%, or something like that, pitching, then shouldn't a team that is a league leader in pitching also lead the league in wins? Well, the 2015 Pirates are 13-15. There are ten teams that have won more than 13 games, including just two (the Mets and Cardinals) with a superior ERA. The 2015 Pirates would seem to show that baseball isn't 70% pitching.

Anyway, back to 1984. Into the argument over whether the game's mostly pitching, a team, Lenny and Squiggy-like, walked into the argument leading the league in ERA with a below average offense. Did the pitching carry them? Certainly not. The team finished last in its division, 75-87, after finishing second the year before. The pitching staff was good, but the offense prevented victories. Good pitching, bad team. 

That team, in that season, vindicated James. The timing couldn't have been more opportune. Good pitching fell prey to bad hitting. The game couldn't be mostly pitching. Maybe, people thought, this analytical stuff can work.

That team, the 1984 club that finished last despite a league-leading pitching staff? The Pittsburgh Pirates.

I'm not going to torture the metaphor. The underperformers in 1984 included Dale Berra, Bill Madlock, Marvell Wynne, Doug Frobel, and Lee Mazzilli. The only one of that quintet who'd been a perennial All-Star was Madlock, who was coming off a batting championship. This year's batting slump is more surprising, given the caliber of the players slumping. And, of course, there's hope that last night's 7-2 win will prove to be a turning point (though any game in which Kevin Gregg, who's now allowed five runs to the Pirates in 1.1 innings, throws 34 pitches has to be viewed as a unique opportunity for batters). But there is a parallel, and it's that as good as the Pirates pitching staff's been this year, they need more at the plate in order to win. But you probably already knew that.

Next Up: St. Louis Cardinals

How Are They Doing Lately? You're kidding, right? The Cardinals are 21-7. That's the best record in baseball.

What's Going Right? Well, they're fourth in scoring, 4.50 runs per game, and they're allowed only 2.82 per game, which is a quarter of a run fewer than any other team in the league.

What's Going Wrong? Their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, is out for the year with a ruptured Achilles tendon. They've hit only 19 homers, tied for the third fewest in the league. Not a lot more to complain about here.

Who's Hot? Other than a handful of guys listed in the next paragraph, sort of the whole team. Left fielder Matt Holiday leads the league with a .477 on base percentage, third baseman Matt Carpenter is fifth in slugging, and Michael Wacha and his 4-0 won-loss record is fourth in ERA. 

Who's Not? Right fielder Jayson Heyward has been the weakest offensive performer over the past 30 days: .230/.270/.320 slash line, but he's heated up as late. Yadier Molina's .264/.309/.322 isn't bad by the standards of contemporary catchers but a far cry from his .313/.361/.481 2011-13 peak. The two pitchers who've auditioned for the rotation spot vacated by Wanwright's injury, Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney, have an 8.10 ERA in their two starts, allowing 16 hits and walks in 6.2 innnings. 

What's The Outlook? The Cardinals are hot. They've won nine of their last ten, and they're 18-4 after a 3-3 start. They've got to cool down at some point, right? Too bad for the Pirates that they won't trade for Kevin Gregg.

Next Up: The St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have finished in first or second in the National League Central in each of the past six years. Since the end of the 20th century, the Cardinals have been first or second every year but 2003, 2007, and 2008, and 2007 was the only year they didn't have a winning record. Starting in 2000, their .563 winning percentage is the best in the National League, 28 games ahead of Atlanta and 70 ahead of Los Angeles.

Yet, there are reasons to think their reign could be nearing an end. As Travis Sawchik pointed out Monday in the Pittsburgh Tribune, the team has key players (Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holiday, and Jhonny Peralta) over 30. Third baseman Matt Carpenter will turn 30 in November. The Cardinals' weighted average batters' age is 29.0, older than the Pirates (27.8) and Cubs (27.2). Their farm system's good--ESPN's Keith Law ranked the Cardinals 13th overall--but the up-and-coming Pirates and Cubs rank higher (seventh and first, respectively). And, of course, Wainwright, one of the best pitchers in baseball, is lost for the season with torn Achilles tendon. 

Several players have started slowly. Jason Heyward, acquired in a trade with the Braves and entering his free agent year, is batting .217 with a .261 on base percentage and .349 slugging percentage. Molina's slash line is similarly punchless, .246/.306/.308. Mark Reynolds, expected to platoon at first with Matt Adams, is hitting .172 with one homer. Starter John Lackey's got a 4.21 ERA and the 10th-lowest strikeout rate in the league, and of course Wainwright and his 1.44 ERA are lost for the season. 

So of course they're second in the league in batting average (.274), second in on base percentage (.339), and fourth in slugging percentage (.408). Of course they lead the league in overall ERA (2.43), starters' ERA (2.85), and bullpen ERA (1.59). Of course they're tied with the Mets for the most wins in the National League (15), they have the best winning percentage in baseball (.714), they lead the Central by 2.5 games, and they have easily the best run differential in the league (+37: 92 scored, 55 allowed). Were the season to end today, a pretty good case could be made for Carpenter for MVP, as he's first in the league in doubles (13) and runs (21), second in slugging percentage (.651) and OPS (1.089), fifth in batting average (.372), and eighth in on base percentage (.438).

In short, they're clearly the best opponents the Pirates have faced this year as they open a weekend series at Busch Stadium. The Pirates will face Lance Lynn (1-2, 3.63 ERA), Lackey, and Michael Wacha (4-0, 2.42 ERA). The Pirates' bats have shown signs of life of late (they're fourth in the league in runs scored over the past two weeks), and they'll need them against a Cardinals pitching staff that's been pretty formidable so far this year.

Flyover: St. Louis Cardinals

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Last time up I wrote about the Los Angeles Angels, so let's stay on that topic and hit on the other team that's roared to a divisional lead of late, the St. Louis Cardinals.

How Are They Doing Lately? They're 17-11 over the past 30 days, tied with the Nationals for the second-most wins in the National League. A month ago, they were in second place in the Central division, two and a half games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, the Brewers have collapsed, and the Cardinals enter play today leading the Central, 2.5 ahead of the Pirates and six up on the fading Brewers after taking two of three against Milwaukee over the past three days. Their ticket to the postseason is pretty much punched. They've scored 4.0 runs per game over the past 30 days, ninth in the league, but they've given up only 3.4, the third fewest.

What's Going Right? The team's ERA over the past 30 days is 3.05, third best in the league. There are a couple items that make me think there's been some luck involved here. The Redbirds have allowed a batting average on balls in play, .275, that's well below the league average of .301, and they've stranded 78% of batters who've reached base compared to a league average of 73%. Outliers that large are unlikely to persist. There's no question that they've been good, though, as both the starters' 3.01 ERA and relievers' 3.12 ERA are third in the league. They haven't racked up a lot of strikeouts (they're third to last at 19.5% of batters faced) but they've walked a below-average number of hitters (6.9%, fifth lowest). And remember the On The Field Of Play mantra: It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. No team has been as good as the Cardinals at throwing strikes over the past 30 days--52% of pitches in the strike zone, best in the league--and they're second in the league at getting strikes, getting batters to swing at 32% of pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, opposing hitters are making contact at lower-than-average rates, and the contact's been weak, with 13% of fly balls going to the infield, most in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been middling at best over the past 30 days: .257 batting average, .331 on base percentage, .353 slugging percentage compared to league averages of .253, .314, and .383, respectively. The standout has been the on base percentage, buoyed by a third-in-the-league walk rate of 8.4% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 7.4%. The Cards haven't hit for power--.096 isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), fourth-lowest in the league--and they haven't stolen bases (last in the league with five stolen bases but tied for second with nine caught stealing--they really ought to give up on SBs). Their hitters have been selective, though, swinging at just 29.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league, and making contact on 80.5% of their swings, fourth-highest. I will point out that back in March, when I projected the Cardinals to win their division, I wrote:

Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position [that the Cards maintained in 2013], by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up.

They are batting .255 with runners in scoring position this year. That's not bad (the league average is .250) but it does illustrate that last year's Redbirds, third in the league in runs scored per game, were due for a decline. We're getting it.

Who's Hot? Adam Wainwright is the team's ace starter, and over the last 30 days, he has a 4-2 record and a 2.66 ERA. That makes him fourth in ERA on the team among starters with ten or more innings pitched. Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, and Marco Gonzales have combined for a 6-1 record and 1.69 ERA. Closer Trevor Rosenthal, who appeared to be on thin ice for a spell over the summer (from July 4 to August 18, he had a 4.94 ERA over 20 appearances), has eight saves and a 1.54 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup men Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness have ERAs of 1.76 and 2.13, respectively. Maness has allowed no unintentional walks over 12.2 innings. The key player on offense has been left fielder Matt Holliday, who is putting up why-don't-they-walk-him-more numbers: ninth in the league in batting at .311, eighth in on base percentage at .393, tenth in slugging at .553, second in RBI with 25, tied for third with six homers. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta's batting .260 but his four doubles and four homers are second on the club to Holliday, giving him a .420 slugging percentage that's second on the team. Highly touted rookie outfielder Oscar Taveras, disappointing much of the year (a horrid .197/.225/.276 slash line at the All-Star break), has a promising .311 batting average over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? The only starter who with an ERA over 3.00 over the past 30 days is trade deadline pickup John Lackey, who's at 4.64. On offense, first baseman Matt Adams has been cold (.174/.270/.314 slash line) and the team's two best players from last season, third baseman Matt Carpenter and catcher Yadier Molina, haven't contributed much. Carpenter's batting .214 over the past 30 days with a punchless .265 slugging percentage, while Molina's .254 average has been accompanied by an also punchless .296 slugging percentage.

What's the Outlook? The Cardinals should win their division but will have the worst record among National League divisional champs, meaning they'll face the second-best team, at this point the Dodgers, with Los Angeles enjoying home-field advantage, in the Divisional Series. This isn't as strong as club as last year's Redbirds. The pitching's been good but a bit lucky, and the hitters have had less pop and haven't maintained their stratospheric batting average with runners in scoring position. I'd be surprised to see them return to the Fall Classic, despite their formidable starting rotation.