The Week That Was: National League Central

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

CHICAGO CUBS

Traded for: C Miguel Montero

Traded away: RP Zack Godley, SP Jeferson Mejia

Free agents signed: SP Jason Hammel, SP Jon Lester

2015 Impact: One of the Chicago teams--could be the Cubs, could be the White Sox--wins the prize for most-improved over the past week. Lester was one of the marquee free agents this year, and, because he was traded from Boston to Oakland during the season, the Cubs don't lose a draft pick for signing him. Ditto Hammel, who, it should be noted, has been an above-average (measured by park-adjusted ERA) only three times in his career: 2009 with Colorado, 2012 with Baltimore, and last year with the Cubs. (He was 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA after being traded to Oakland in July.) Montero plugs a hole, as Cubs catchers had a .620 OPS last year, second-worst in the league.  

2016+ Impact: The Cubs have a fabulous farm system, so the fact taht Godley and Mejia don't show up on Keith Law's top ten list at the start of the season doesn't mean that they're not promising. However, the Cubs added three solid players who'll be with the team for a while. Lester's signed through 2020, Hammel through 2016 with a club option for 2017, and Montero through 2017. These moves made the Cubs a better team in the short term and the long term.

CINCINNATI REDS

Traded for: SP Jonathan Crawford, SP Anthony DeSclafani, SP Matt Masill, SS Eugenio Suarez, C Chad Wallach

Traded away: OF Chris Heisey, SP Mat Latos, SP Alfredo Simon

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs thinks that the Reds "quietly won the winter meetings," but this sure looks like a present-value-for-future-value set of moves to me. I agree with his general premise that the three major leaguers the Reds traded aren't all that good. But the haul they got in return isn't likely to help much, at least in the near term. Suarez lost a starting job in Detroit, and he's the only one with meaningful major league experience. I think these moves leave the Reds worse off in 2015, though not by a lot.

2016+ Impact: I'll buy the idea that these moves make the Reds a better team beyond 2015. Latos and Simon will be free agents after the 2015 season  and Heisey's a free agent after the 2017 season. So they traded three guys who very likely weren't going to be Reds much longer anyway. A major-league contribution from any of the five young players they received will tip the moves in the Reds' favor.


MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody



PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Traded for: RP Antonio Bastardo
Traded away: SP Joely Rodriguez
Free agents signed: SP Francisco Liriano

2015 Impact: Positive. The signing of Liriano, the team's best starter over the past two seasons, coupled with the previous signing of starter A.J. Burnett for a one-year last hurrah, shores up the Pirates' rotation. The 29-year-old Bastardo is a decent left-handed reliever (3.43 career ERA in 270 relief appearances with 305 strikeouts in 236.1 innings). The Pirates traded one of their two left-handed relievers in November, so Bastardo fills a hole.

2016+ Impact: Liriano slipped from a 16-8 won-lost record in 2013 to 7-10 in 2014, but that was due more to a sharp decline in run support (4.5 runs per game in 2013, 3.4 in 2014, 12th lowest in the league among 60 ERA qualifiers) than a drop in effectiveness (though his ERA did rise by over a third of run). Signing him for three years provides benefits beyond 2015. Rodriguez, 23, struggled in Class AA this season after a solid 2013 in A ball.


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: 1B/3B Mark Reynolds

2015 Impact: The Cards signed Reynolds to a one-year, $2 million contract. He's always been an all-or-nothing type of hitter: swing for the fences, connecting sometimes and missing a lot. Among players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances, he's first all time in at bats per strikeout, 2.72 (i.e., he strikes out 221 times per 600 at bats). He bats right, so presumably he'll pinch hit and platoon some with Cardinals 1B Matt Adams, who's pretty dreadful against left-handed pitchers (.197/.227/.326 career slash line, his home run against Clayton Kershaw in the postseason notwithstanding). If Reynolds doesn't work out, they'll release him. This is a $2 million flyer with little or no downside to St. Louis.

2016+ Impact: He probably won't be around after 2015, but if he is, it's because it worked out well. Again, little or no downside.

Flyover: Milwaukee Brewers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. I was doing these alphabetically--got through Detroit--but I'm going to jump around now, for three reasons. First, I haven't been able to post as frequently as I wanted. Second, at this point in the season, I think the interest in non-contenders (the Florida Marlins are next alphabetically) is pretty limited. Finally, in September, with all the minor league callups, the mix of players for teams not in the pennant race can get pretty diluted. So I'm going to pick these based on my interest.

Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?

What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs. 

What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.

The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.

Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.

Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year). 

All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.