Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Pirates open a three-game series in Milwaukee tonight before wrapping up interleague play against the two top teams in the American League Central, Kansas City and Minnesota, wrapped around a four-game series against the National League East-leading Washington Nationals.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Brewers are a .500 team over the past 30 days, going 14-14. Appropriately, that ranks them exactly in the middle of the National League. They've led the league in scoring during the period, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They've given up 4.4 per game, the fifth most.

What's Going Right? When you lead the league in scoring, the offense is clicking. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers lead the league in batting (.282) and on base percentage (.335) and they're second in slugging percentage (.433). They're third in home runs and have been the hardest team in the league to strike out. The bullpen's been OK, with a 3.19 ERA that ranks ninth in the league over the past 30 days, as they've gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone at a fourth-best-in-the-league 32% clip.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers' 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days would be the worst in the league were it not for the Rockies' Coors Field-inflated 5.41 and the Phillies' cover-your-eyes 7.07. They've struck out batters at the lowest rate in the league during the period and allowed the second-most hard-hit balls. 

Who's Hot? The biggest batting stars over the last 30 days have been outfielder Gerardo Parra (.349/.383/.566 slash line) and first baseman Adam Lind (.290/.396/.538). Lind leads the club over the period with six homers and 19 RBI, while Parra's the leading scorer with 18 runs. He's added five homers and five stolen bases. Second baseman Scooter Gennett, sent the minors in May with a .154/.203/.200 batting line, is hitting .298/.327/.511 since his return on June 11. The team's more familiar stars--catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez--have been solid contributors as well.

Rookie Taylor Jungmann, who debuted against the Pirates on June 9, has a 2.31 ERA over the past 30 days. He'll start Sunday afternoon's game. In the bullpen, closer Francisco Rodriguez has six saves, a 2.00 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days, and the two relievers likely to replace Rodriguez if he's traded, righty Jeremy Jeffress and lefty Will Smith, have combined for a 2.74 ERA, though Jeffress doesn't strike out enough batters (14% of batters faced, the league average is 21% for relievers) and Smith walks too many (9%, the league average is 7%).

Who's Not? The two worst starting pitchers over the past 30 days have been the two supposedly on the trading block: Kyle Lohse has a 5.94 ERA and Matt Garza's is 7.88. Garza's out with shoulder tendonitis and the Pirates won't face Lohse. Shortstop Jean Segura has an absolutely punchless .252 batting average over the past 30 days: he's walked only three times and has no extra-base hits at all, so his on base percentage is just .278 and his slugging percentage of .252 is lower than that of Pirate pitcher Vance Worley (.267). 

What's the Outlook? I'll reiterate what I said the last time the teams met: 

They...have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.

The bigger question is, how long does this team stay together? The Brewers are in last place, 10.5 games behind the Cardinals, and not going to the postseason. There have been rumors about almost everyone on the team getting traded. Braun's contract pays him $96 million over the next five seasons and he's owed either $15 million (mutual option) or $4 million (buyout) in 2021. With a contract that large, he's not tradeable. Lucroy is sort of the opposite: his contract is so cheap ($4 million next year, $5.25 million team option in 2017) that he's hard to trade as well. 

Some players who could be moved won't generate a lot in return. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is 37, having a down year, and has announced he'll retire at the end of the season, so he'll bring little in return. Lohse is a free agent after the season and has a 6.17 ERA. Garza is a little pricey, owed $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017 with a $13 million vesting option in 2018, plus he's got a 5.55 ERA and is on the disabled list.

Other trade pieces are more valuable. This is K-Rod's 14th year in the majors but he's only 33 and still getting batters out. His contract is reasonable ($5.5 million next year, $6 million team option/$4 million buyout in 2017), so he could go to a team in need of relief help (Detroit?). Gomez is arguably the club's best player, and he's owed a reasonable $9 million next year, but he'll be a free agent after that and likely too expensive for the Brewers, so he could depart. Lind has turned out be a nice pickup for the Brewers. He's owed either $8 million or a $500,000 buyout next year, so he could be traded to team looking for help at first base. (The Cardinals and Pirates come to mind immediately). Segura's about to become more expensive, as he's eligible for arbitration next year, but he won't be a free agent until 2019, so I don't fully understand the zeal to trade him. The difficulty for the Brewers is that it makes sense to trade players if they won't be around for the next winning team. The Brewers aren't hopeless, and it'd normally be pessimistic to suggest a team can't turn around in three years, becoming a contender for at least a wild card in Segura's last year before free agency. But Milwaukee has the misfortune to play in the same division as possibly the best organization in baseball (St. Louis) and two of the best young teams (the Pirates and the Cubs), so it could be a long time before they can break into the top three in the division. Thus, I expect the Brewers to be more interested in longer-term prospects than major league-ready players as we approach the trade deadline at the end of the month.

0-3

The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:

• 1903: 3-0
• 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
• 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
• 1927: 3-0
• 1960: 1-2
• 1970: 1-2
• 1971: 3-0
• 1972: 1-2
• 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
• 1975: 3-0
• 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 1990: 2-1
• 1991: 2-1
• 1992: 2-1
• 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 2014: 2-1

So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.

They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.

Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday. 

When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one). 

Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.

Flyover: Milwaukee Brewers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. I was doing these alphabetically--got through Detroit--but I'm going to jump around now, for three reasons. First, I haven't been able to post as frequently as I wanted. Second, at this point in the season, I think the interest in non-contenders (the Florida Marlins are next alphabetically) is pretty limited. Finally, in September, with all the minor league callups, the mix of players for teams not in the pennant race can get pretty diluted. So I'm going to pick these based on my interest.

Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?

What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs. 

What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.

The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.

Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.

Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year). 

All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.

What's Going On With: The Milwaukee Brewers

This is Part 6 of a six-part series looking at the three worst and three best teams in baseball to date, and figuring out why they've done what they've done and whether they'll keep on doing it. Let this segment be a lesson in getting while the getting's good. When I started writing about the top three teams in baseball, the Brewers had the best record. They don't anymore. So we've hit the teams with worst records (here are the links to the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Arizona Diamondbacks), third-best San Francisco Giants, and the now-best Detroit Tigers. Now, the second-best (but best at the start of the week) Milwaukee Brewers.

How Good Have They Been? The Brewers are 22-13, a .629 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 102-60. After a smoking hot start, they've lost six of their last eight games.

How Much of a Surprise is This? Three National League Central teams made the postseason last year. The 74-88 Brewers were not one of them. At best, they were viewed as a dark horse team that might be able to break .500. When I wrote about the Diamondbacks, I said that they were the most disappointing team in baseball. The Brewers are the most unexpectedly good. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 55% chance of making the postseason.

What's Been Right? The Brewers have scored 3.97 runs per game, just below the league average of 3.98, but pitching's been the strength. The Brewers' 3.11 ERA is fourth-best in the league. The starters have a fourth-best 3.14 ERA. The relievers' 3.07 isn't a lot better than league, but the bullpen leads the league in saves with 15 and has blown only four, giving it a second-best 79% save percentage. The defense has been decent, converting 71% of balls in play into outs, second most in the league. So the surprise has been pitching-driven. The headliner is closer Francisco Rodriguez, who has converted all 14 of his save opportunities and has allowed, in 18 innings, 26 strikeouts, 12 baserunners and no runs at all so far.

Has Luck Been Involved? Please refer here for a discussion of the terms used below, and why I chose them.

The pitchers have maybe been a little lucky. They've allowed just a .219 batting average with runners in scoring position compared to an average of .237. That's probably not sustainable. But that's about it. Nothing that screams "regression to the mean." 

What's The Outlook? The Brewers have cooled some. K-Rod is going to allow runs at some point. Starters Wily Peralta, Yovani Gallardo, and Kyle Lohse currently have ERAs of 2.17, 2.47, and 2.72, respectively, compared to career averages entering the season of 4.11, 3.72, and 4.35, respectively, so they are likely to give up ground. But the Central has been a weak division (currently tied for worst in the majors with the AL West), with only the Cardinals, who have struggled to score runs, above .500 other than Milwaukee. If the Brewers just play a game over .500 the rest of the way, they'll win 86. A few wins more and they're the surprise entrant in the postseason.