Next Up: The...Wait, Didn't We Just Get Done Playing These Guys?

Pretty close: The Pirates played three games against the Brewers, the last of which was just a week ago today, last week. They were swept in three games at Miller Park. They'll hope for more success at home, though I'll point out again that the Pirates have struggled against the worst teams in their division, including a 6-9 record to date against the Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? This is going to be a lot like the last piece I wrote about the Brewers...Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 13-13, exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 5.1 runs per game, fifth in the league but allowed 5.0, also the the fifth most.

What's Going Right? The Brewers are second in batting average (.278), fourth in on base percentage (.331), and fifth in slugging percentage (.449) over the past 30 days. They're in a four-way tie for the fifth fewest (or, if you like, a four-way tie for the eighth most) home runs, they've walked at the fourth lowest rate, and struck out at the fifth highest rate, but overall, they've been pretty good. They've hit a below-average number of out-producing grounders and have an above-average rate of hard contact.

What's Going Wrong? The pitching problem is the starting staff. Its 5.48 ERA over the past 30 days is the fourth highest in the league and has led to an over-reliance on the bullpen, as the Brewers starters are the only ones in the league to have averaged less than five innings per start over the past 30 days. The Brewers starters have the highest walk rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league over the period and have induced the second-lowest rate of swings outside the strike zone.

Who's Hot? Same as I said last time: right fielder Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy have led the Crew over the last 30 days. Braun has a .372/.423/.617 slash line over the past 30 days, and Lucroy's is .311/.363/.544. Lucroy and Braun are 1-2 on the club in runs scored; Braun and Lucroy are 1-2 in RBI. Center fielder Domingo Santana, who came over in the Carlos Gomez trade, is hitting .288/.409/.615 in 16 games as a Brewer. (Gomez is hitting only .239/.284/.370 as an Astro--his OPS is barely better than Santana's slugging percentage.) First baseman Adam Lind (.297/.409/.486) and second baseman Scooter Gennett (.348/.357/.464) have also done well over the past 30 days. 

The Brewers have relied on four relievers who've appeared in eleven or more games over the past 30 days. Two of them, middle relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, have combined for a 1.93 ERA (though Jeffress has struck out only five batters in 12.1 innings and Knebel's allowed three homers in 11.0). As for the other two relievers, see the next sentence. 

Who's Not? Closer Francisco Rodriguez has a 6.75 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup man Will Smith's is 5.56. The Pirates will face starters Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies (who's listed at 22 years old, 6'0", 160, but looks younger and skinnier), and Taylor Jungmann over the series. Peralta and Davies are the only two starters with ERAs below 4.00 over the last 30 days, at 3.42 and 3.97, respectively. So by that measure, they're not hot. On the other hand, they've combined for a 2.10 ERA against the Pirates this year. (Full disclosure: All but one of the starts have been by Nelson and Jungmann.)

What's the Outlook? Coming off two victories in three games against arch-nemesis/otherwise bad team Cincinnati, the Pirates will try to get their seasonal record closer to .500 against the Brewers. As I wrote last week: 

As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.

As of this writing, the National League Central has the teams with the best (Cardinals), second-best (Pirates), and fourth-best (Cubs) record in major league baseball. All three teams look to improve over the weekend, as the Pirates play the team with the seventh-worst record in baseball (Milwaukee), the Reds play the team with the fourth-worst record (Cincinnati), and the Cubs draw the long straw, playing the team with the worst record of all (Philadelphia).

Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Pirates open a three-game series in Milwaukee tonight before wrapping up interleague play against the two top teams in the American League Central, Kansas City and Minnesota, wrapped around a four-game series against the National League East-leading Washington Nationals.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Brewers are a .500 team over the past 30 days, going 14-14. Appropriately, that ranks them exactly in the middle of the National League. They've led the league in scoring during the period, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They've given up 4.4 per game, the fifth most.

What's Going Right? When you lead the league in scoring, the offense is clicking. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers lead the league in batting (.282) and on base percentage (.335) and they're second in slugging percentage (.433). They're third in home runs and have been the hardest team in the league to strike out. The bullpen's been OK, with a 3.19 ERA that ranks ninth in the league over the past 30 days, as they've gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone at a fourth-best-in-the-league 32% clip.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers' 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days would be the worst in the league were it not for the Rockies' Coors Field-inflated 5.41 and the Phillies' cover-your-eyes 7.07. They've struck out batters at the lowest rate in the league during the period and allowed the second-most hard-hit balls. 

Who's Hot? The biggest batting stars over the last 30 days have been outfielder Gerardo Parra (.349/.383/.566 slash line) and first baseman Adam Lind (.290/.396/.538). Lind leads the club over the period with six homers and 19 RBI, while Parra's the leading scorer with 18 runs. He's added five homers and five stolen bases. Second baseman Scooter Gennett, sent the minors in May with a .154/.203/.200 batting line, is hitting .298/.327/.511 since his return on June 11. The team's more familiar stars--catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez--have been solid contributors as well.

Rookie Taylor Jungmann, who debuted against the Pirates on June 9, has a 2.31 ERA over the past 30 days. He'll start Sunday afternoon's game. In the bullpen, closer Francisco Rodriguez has six saves, a 2.00 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days, and the two relievers likely to replace Rodriguez if he's traded, righty Jeremy Jeffress and lefty Will Smith, have combined for a 2.74 ERA, though Jeffress doesn't strike out enough batters (14% of batters faced, the league average is 21% for relievers) and Smith walks too many (9%, the league average is 7%).

Who's Not? The two worst starting pitchers over the past 30 days have been the two supposedly on the trading block: Kyle Lohse has a 5.94 ERA and Matt Garza's is 7.88. Garza's out with shoulder tendonitis and the Pirates won't face Lohse. Shortstop Jean Segura has an absolutely punchless .252 batting average over the past 30 days: he's walked only three times and has no extra-base hits at all, so his on base percentage is just .278 and his slugging percentage of .252 is lower than that of Pirate pitcher Vance Worley (.267). 

What's the Outlook? I'll reiterate what I said the last time the teams met: 

They...have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.

The bigger question is, how long does this team stay together? The Brewers are in last place, 10.5 games behind the Cardinals, and not going to the postseason. There have been rumors about almost everyone on the team getting traded. Braun's contract pays him $96 million over the next five seasons and he's owed either $15 million (mutual option) or $4 million (buyout) in 2021. With a contract that large, he's not tradeable. Lucroy is sort of the opposite: his contract is so cheap ($4 million next year, $5.25 million team option in 2017) that he's hard to trade as well. 

Some players who could be moved won't generate a lot in return. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is 37, having a down year, and has announced he'll retire at the end of the season, so he'll bring little in return. Lohse is a free agent after the season and has a 6.17 ERA. Garza is a little pricey, owed $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017 with a $13 million vesting option in 2018, plus he's got a 5.55 ERA and is on the disabled list.

Other trade pieces are more valuable. This is K-Rod's 14th year in the majors but he's only 33 and still getting batters out. His contract is reasonable ($5.5 million next year, $6 million team option/$4 million buyout in 2017), so he could go to a team in need of relief help (Detroit?). Gomez is arguably the club's best player, and he's owed a reasonable $9 million next year, but he'll be a free agent after that and likely too expensive for the Brewers, so he could depart. Lind has turned out be a nice pickup for the Brewers. He's owed either $8 million or a $500,000 buyout next year, so he could be traded to team looking for help at first base. (The Cardinals and Pirates come to mind immediately). Segura's about to become more expensive, as he's eligible for arbitration next year, but he won't be a free agent until 2019, so I don't fully understand the zeal to trade him. The difficulty for the Brewers is that it makes sense to trade players if they won't be around for the next winning team. The Brewers aren't hopeless, and it'd normally be pessimistic to suggest a team can't turn around in three years, becoming a contender for at least a wild card in Segura's last year before free agency. But Milwaukee has the misfortune to play in the same division as possibly the best organization in baseball (St. Louis) and two of the best young teams (the Pirates and the Cubs), so it could be a long time before they can break into the top three in the division. Thus, I expect the Brewers to be more interested in longer-term prospects than major league-ready players as we approach the trade deadline at the end of the month.

Flyover: Milwaukee Brewers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. I was doing these alphabetically--got through Detroit--but I'm going to jump around now, for three reasons. First, I haven't been able to post as frequently as I wanted. Second, at this point in the season, I think the interest in non-contenders (the Florida Marlins are next alphabetically) is pretty limited. Finally, in September, with all the minor league callups, the mix of players for teams not in the pennant race can get pretty diluted. So I'm going to pick these based on my interest.

Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?

What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs. 

What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.

The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.

Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.

Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year). 

All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.