Yesterday the New York Yankees traded their third baseman this year, Yangervis Solarte, and minor league pitcher Rafael De Paula to the San Diego Padres for third baseman Chase Headley. Solarte was an interesting story this year, as the 26-year-old rookie posted a strong .299/.369/.466 slash line through the end of May but a paltry .154/.267/.192 thereafter. Headley wasted no time endearing himself to the Bronx faithful, with a walkoff RBI single in his first game:
What's Good About Him? Headley was a fantastic player in 2012, with a .286/.376/.498 slash line and a Gold Glove. He was first in the National League with 115 RBI, fifth in total bases with 301, seventh in runs scored with 95, eighth in home runs with 31, and ninth in on-base percentage. That he compiled his offensive numbers at Petco Park, the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball, makes them doubly impressive.
What's Not So Good About Him? Well, every year since. In 2013, his slash line was .250/.347/.400 - still above average, considering Petco Park, but not star level - and his home runs and RBI fell from 31 and 115 in 2012 to 13 and 50 in 2013. So far this year he's been simply bad: .230/.296/.353, with 7 homers and 33 RBI--lousy timing, considering that he's a free agent at the end of the season.
So What Should Yankees Fans Expect? Getting away from Petco should help. Headley's batting average at home was actually higher than on the road this year, but only two of his seven homers came at home. Yankee Stadium is a good hitter's park, so Headley's moving from a tough stadium to a much more favorable one.
A return to his 2012 season doesn't seem likely. That year, over 21% of fly balls went over the fence. Every other year of his career, it's been less than 11%. So 2012 stands out as a fluke. Also in 2012, he slugged .568 against fastballs and .583 against offspeed pitches. He's never been higher than .440 as a regular other than 2012.
So if 2012's out, how about 2013? Headley was above average that year. He's swinging and missing less often than last year, he's not swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone, and the percentage of his fly balls that are home runs is barely down. What has changed is his batting average on balls in play: From .319 last year to .286 this year. (The National League average was .297 last year and .299 this year). As I've mentioned, most players' batting average on balls in play hovers around the league average. So you can make an argument that Headley's performance this year has been due to random variation rather than declining skills.
So you put it together, and you've got a guy who had a great fluke season in 2012 followed by an OK year in 2013. He's declined in 2014, but that's in part due to bad luck, and his batting stats in general have been hurt by his home park. Now, they should be helped.
So it's reasonable for the Yankees to expect something approaching league-average production from Headley for the remainder of the year. The question is what happens after that. With good production, will Headley sign a free agent contract to stay in pinstripes? Or will they let him go, given that they have another third baseman who'll be back next year--a 38-year-old to whom they owe $61 million for 2015-2017 as well as a $6 million bonus after his sixth home run next year?
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Showing posts with label Petco Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Petco Park. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Things I Didn't Know: NL West
In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.
National League first, going left to right, so starting with the NL West.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 92-70: There were only four teams in the National League with winning records on the road. Of them, the Dodgers had the best record, 45-36, even though their overall record was only third best in the league. Often teams that play in idiosyncratic ballparks (Dodger Stadium is one of the league's more extreme pitchers' parks) have a hard time on the road. Not the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: The Diamondbacks had the best record in the league in one-run games, 34-21. Despite what you hear about that indicating tenaciousness, clutch ability, or a strong bullpen, a lot of it's luck. Arizona led the league in one-run wining percentage in 2011, with a 28-16 record. In 2012 they finished 13 games lower in the standings as their one-run game record cratered to 15-27. The best teams in one-run games in 2012 were the Reds (31-21) and Giants (30-20), who lost 7 and 18 more games in 2013, respectively. Winning one-run games is generally not a repeatable skill, so doing well at it one year often results in a slide in the next.
As an aside, remember the big trade before last season in which the Braves sent Martin Prado and four others to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson? Everybody laughed that one off after Upton had a huge April, with a .298/.402/.734 slash line and 12 homers, while Prado struggled to .217/.266/.348. Well, for the rest of the season, Upton hit .256/.343/.409 while Prado hit .298/.348/.433. Take away April and Prado was the better hitter! But Johnson, who was viewed as almost a throw-in in accounts highlighting Prado and Upton, was as good or better: .321/.358/.457 for the season, tipping the trade, so far, in Atlanta's favor.
San Diego Padres, 76-86: San Diego had a disappointing team ERA of 3.98 last year. The league average was 3.74. It's tempting to blame that on Petco Park, as the fences were brought in last year and the Padres hurlers gave up 80 home runs compared to 62 the year before. But the problem wasn't Petco, it was the pitchers. Away from Petco, Padres pitchers had a 4.78 ERA, the worst in the NL. Petco's still a pitchers' park, and it helped mask the pitching staff's shortcomings.
San Francisco Giants, 76-86: Giants pitchers were fourth in the league in strikeouts with 1,256. Cain, Lincecum and others throwing heat? Hardly. The team threw fewer fastballs (four-seam and two-seam combined) in the league, 50% of pitches thrown, at the lowest average speed, 90.0 MPH. The Giants threw a ton of sliders, 26% of pitches thrown, easily the most in the league.
Colorado Rockies, 74-88: As I noted, there is evidence that the best pitches for Coors Field, the Rockies' hitter-favoring thin-air home park, are sliders and cut fastballs. The Rockies apparently didn't read the whole article I referenced. They threw 19% sliders, tied with the Brewers for the third most in the league, but only a little over 1% cutters. Then again, their only pitchers who used a cutter much were Chad Bettis (5.64 ERA), Jon Garland (5.82), and Jeff Francis (6.27), so maybe we need more evidence that the pitch can work at Coors. In the meantime, perhaps they should talk to the Giants' pitching coaches about slider proliferation.
National League first, going left to right, so starting with the NL West.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 92-70: There were only four teams in the National League with winning records on the road. Of them, the Dodgers had the best record, 45-36, even though their overall record was only third best in the league. Often teams that play in idiosyncratic ballparks (Dodger Stadium is one of the league's more extreme pitchers' parks) have a hard time on the road. Not the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: The Diamondbacks had the best record in the league in one-run games, 34-21. Despite what you hear about that indicating tenaciousness, clutch ability, or a strong bullpen, a lot of it's luck. Arizona led the league in one-run wining percentage in 2011, with a 28-16 record. In 2012 they finished 13 games lower in the standings as their one-run game record cratered to 15-27. The best teams in one-run games in 2012 were the Reds (31-21) and Giants (30-20), who lost 7 and 18 more games in 2013, respectively. Winning one-run games is generally not a repeatable skill, so doing well at it one year often results in a slide in the next.
As an aside, remember the big trade before last season in which the Braves sent Martin Prado and four others to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson? Everybody laughed that one off after Upton had a huge April, with a .298/.402/.734 slash line and 12 homers, while Prado struggled to .217/.266/.348. Well, for the rest of the season, Upton hit .256/.343/.409 while Prado hit .298/.348/.433. Take away April and Prado was the better hitter! But Johnson, who was viewed as almost a throw-in in accounts highlighting Prado and Upton, was as good or better: .321/.358/.457 for the season, tipping the trade, so far, in Atlanta's favor.
San Diego Padres, 76-86: San Diego had a disappointing team ERA of 3.98 last year. The league average was 3.74. It's tempting to blame that on Petco Park, as the fences were brought in last year and the Padres hurlers gave up 80 home runs compared to 62 the year before. But the problem wasn't Petco, it was the pitchers. Away from Petco, Padres pitchers had a 4.78 ERA, the worst in the NL. Petco's still a pitchers' park, and it helped mask the pitching staff's shortcomings.
San Francisco Giants, 76-86: Giants pitchers were fourth in the league in strikeouts with 1,256. Cain, Lincecum and others throwing heat? Hardly. The team threw fewer fastballs (four-seam and two-seam combined) in the league, 50% of pitches thrown, at the lowest average speed, 90.0 MPH. The Giants threw a ton of sliders, 26% of pitches thrown, easily the most in the league.
Colorado Rockies, 74-88: As I noted, there is evidence that the best pitches for Coors Field, the Rockies' hitter-favoring thin-air home park, are sliders and cut fastballs. The Rockies apparently didn't read the whole article I referenced. They threw 19% sliders, tied with the Brewers for the third most in the league, but only a little over 1% cutters. Then again, their only pitchers who used a cutter much were Chad Bettis (5.64 ERA), Jon Garland (5.82), and Jeff Francis (6.27), so maybe we need more evidence that the pitch can work at Coors. In the meantime, perhaps they should talk to the Giants' pitching coaches about slider proliferation.
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