Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Sweeping the Giants at AT&T Park...didn't see that coming. Going into the series, as I noted, the Giants had the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games. Now, the team with the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games is...the Pittsburgh Pirates.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, there have been four pretty good teams in the National League: the Pirates (17-10), Nationals (16-10), Cardinals, and Giants (both 16-12). There have been four pretty bad teams: the Marlins (9-18), Brewers (10-17, Reds (10-16), and Phillies (11-16). Everybody else is between 13-15 and 15-12. That includes the Braves, 13-13. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, seventh in the league. They've given up 4.3, which is ninth. They're pretty much .500 at everything.

What's Going Right? The offense hasn't been anything special, but over the past 30 days, the Braves have the been the fifth-toughest team to fan, they're tied for fifth with 17 stolen bases, and they've succeeded in 77% of their stolen base attempts, the second-best percentage in the league. The starters' 3.83 ERA is the fifth best in the league over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. The starters have gotten only the eighth-most strikeouts while allowing the fourth-most walks, suggesting that their recent success may not last. The problem on offense has been power: the Braves have 12 homers over the past 30 days, last in the National League, and they and the Padres (17) are the only teams with fewer than 22 homers. 

Who's Hot? Freddie Freeman's bat has carried the offense over the past 30 days: .297/.360/.515 slash line, leading the club in homers (5) and RBI (19). Nick Markakis leads the team in batting average (.320) and on base percentage (.398) and is second in slugging percentage (.430), a function of his team-leading 21 singles and 11 doubles. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, as usual, provides highlights-reel defense. Starters Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Williams Perez have combined for a 5-1 record and 1.80 ERA with two home runs allowed over the past 30 days. The team's two primary setup relievers, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan, have ERAs of 2.38 and 0.93, respectively, over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Christian Bethancourt have matching .182 batting averages over the past 30 days. Left fielder Jonny Gomes has a .208/.235/.271 slash line. Alberto Callaspo and his .150/.255/.150 slash line held down third for much of the past 30 days, but he's been traded, with Juan Uribe and Chris Johnson taking over. The starters not named Miller, Perez, or Wood have a 5.87 ERA over the past 30 days.

The facile explanation of the bullpen's struggles is the departure, via a season-opening trade, of closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. The Braves' new closer, former Pirate Jason Grilli, hasn't dominated over the past 30 days--4.32 ERA, 4.3 walks per nine innings, .417 batting average on balls in play--but he's 7-for-7 in saves. Kimbrel's been unremarkable over the same period: 3.86 ERA, 3.9 walks per nine, .409 batting average on balls in play, 4-for-5 in saves. So the problem's not Kimbrel's absence. Rather, it's been the bullpen other than Grilli, Johnson, and Avilan: the other Braves relievers have combined for a 7.85 ERA.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates draw two of the Braves' hot starters, Perez and Wood, followed by the inconsistent Julio Teheran (1.08 ERA in his four wins, 7.50 ERA in his two losses and five no-decisions). I wasn't expecting a sweep in San Francisco, and I'm not expecting one in Atlanta, either. The key, it seems to me, will be getting to the Braves' starters early in order to get to the weak middle of the Atlanta bullpen.

If the Orioles Are Really Going to Do Something

I think the Orioles should trade for San Diego's Carlos Quentin.

Let me rewind a bit. It's been a very quiet offseason for Baltimore. They lost three regulars from their 2014 American League East championship squad to free agency: Right fielder Nick Markakis, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and left-handed reliever Andrew Miller. They replaced them with...well, they haven't done much of anything. Until yesterday, their biggest roster move was to re-sign free agent left fielder/DH Delmon Young, who had 255 plate appearances last year. Like every team, they added some fringe-type players, mostly signed to minor league contracts. But until yesterday, when they traded for Pirates outfielder Travis Snider, who started 47 games in right field for Pittsburgh last year, they've done nothing to replace the three players I listed above. And while Snider had a decent year in Pittsburgh, with a .264/.338/.438 slash line in 359 plate appearances, it was his first above-average season since 2010. 

There've also been questions raised about the reason for their inactivity. The Toronto Blue Jays wanted to hire Baltimore's general manager, Dan Duquette as their CEO. Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through 2017. Orioles owner Peter Angelos reportedly demanded a king's ransom (three top prospects) from the Blue Jays in order to take Duquette. (Not that this is a common occurrence, but the industry standard appears to be to let a front office employee depart for a promotion, and to get perhaps one prospect as compensation for a lateral move. This would be a promotion for Duquette, who is the Orioles' executive vice president of baseball operations, so Angelos insisting on compensation is a bit aggressive, and going for elite compensation is pretty out there.) This leaves the Orioles in the bizarre position of having their top everyday executive apparently desirous of working for one of Baltimore's American League East opponents. In turn, there's a question as to how dedicated Duquette is in improving the team. Yesterday, the Blue Jays announced that their incumbent CEO, Paul Beeston, will stay on through the end of the current season, after which he'll retire. That, of course, leaves open the question of who'll fill the role in 2016.

Lost in this controversy is the fact that the Orioles didn't do a lot last winter, either, until the very end. In December 2013, they traded for outfielder David Lough, who was basically a late-inning defensive substitute in the outfield (112 games played, but just 47 started) and signed right-handed reliever Ryan Webb, who pitched 49.1 innings of middle relief spread over 51 games. They traded their closer, Jim Johnson, to Oakland in what turned out to be a brilliant move, as Johnson turned into a pumpkin, going from 50 saves and a 2.94 ERA in 2013 to two saves and a 7.09 ERA in 2014. They signed the aforementioned Delmon Young in January. That's pretty much it. Their big moves--signing free agents Ubaldo Jiminez and Cruz--didn't occur until late February, and only the Cruz signing worked out. Jiminez, signed for four years and $50 million, was 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA last season. Cruz, signed to a one-year $8 million contract, led the league in home runs with 40 and finished seventh in the MVP voting. The Mariners signed him to a four year, $57 million contract in December.

So maybe the plan is, like last year, to more or less stand pat and then make some moves once spring training starts. Still, the team is down a right fielder (unless Snider takes a big step forward), a DH, and a middle reliever. Middle relievers are pretty fungible in modern baseball--every team has young guys in their system who can throw gas for an inning. They probably can't do it a skillfully as Miller, who compiled a 2.02 ERA over 73 games split between Boston and Baltimore, striking out 103 and allowing just 53 baserunners (hits, hit batters, and unintentional walks) over 62.1 innings last year, but the Orioles at least have options there. As for Markakis, I wrote back in December that Alejandro de Aza, whom the Orioles acquired last August, may provide comparable value. So I don't view those as glaring holes.

Plus, the Orioles will enter the season with a presumably healthy catcher Matt Wieters (who played just 26 games last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery last June) and third baseman Manny Machado (who missed half the season with various knee ailments). First baseman Chris Davis is done serving a drug suspension for Adderol. So three key players will be back, although Davis was pretty bad last year (.196/.300/.404 slash line and 26 homers after hitting .286/.370/.634 with 53 homers in 2013). If Davis falters, Steve Pearce, who had a .293/.373/.556 slash line last year, easily the best of his career, can play first.

Which leaves designated hitter. That's where Quentin comes in. He was awful for San Diego last year, and only a half-time player the two prior seasons:

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2012	29	86	340	284	44	74	21	0	16	46	36	41	.261	.374	.504	.877	146
2013	30	82	320	276	42	76	21	0	13	44	31	55	.275	.363	.493	.855	145
2014	31	50	155	130	9	23	6	0	4	18	17	33	.177	.284	.315	.599	75
SDP (3 yrs)		218	815	690	95	173	48	0	33	108	84	129	.251	.352	.464	.816	132

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.

So why should the Orioles trade for him? Here's my logic:

• The Orioles can buy low on Quentin, given his lousy recent performance.
• The Padres have a serious logjam in their outfield. They added three full-time players via trade (former Dodger Matt Kemp, former Brave Justin Upton, and former Ray Wil Myers). They still have Will Venable (146 games played last year) and Cameron Maybin (95 games). They need to deal somebody.
• Quentin is signed for $8 million this year, the same as Cruz earned in 2014. His contract has a $10 million mutual option for 2016, subject to a $3 million buyout if he plays 320 games in 2013-2015, which he won't. In other words, he'll cost $8 million in 2015 and $10 million in 2016 if all goes well, nothing if it doesn't. That's pretty reasonable.
• The reason he's missed so much time is that he's had a series of injuries. Since joining the Padres, he's been out with knee, wrist, shoulder, and groin injuries, including three stints covering 152 games on the disabled list. Quentin is a bad outfielder, enough so that he'll probably be healthier if he doesn't have to spend half the game running around chasing balls while wearing a glove. (He also gets hit by pitches a lot.) Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez are Hall of Fame-caliber players who went from oft-injured to extremely durable once they became full-time DHs. Not that Quentin's another Molitor or Martinez, but a full-time DH role could keep him in the lineup more.
• Amplifying that point, prior to playing in San Diego, Quentin played for the White Sox, mostly as an outfielder but also as DH, with better durability:

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2008 ★	25	130	480	96	138	26	1	36	100	66	80	.288	.394	.571	.965	149
2009	26	99	351	47	83	14	0	21	56	31	52	.236	.323	.456	.779	98
2010	27	131	453	73	110	25	2	26	87	50	83	.243	.342	.479	.821	119
2011 ★	28	118	421	53	107	31	0	24	77	34	84	.254	.340	.499	.838	122
CHW (4 yrs)		478	1705	269	438	96	3	107	320	181	299	.257	.352	.505	.857	124

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.
• The Padres' home field, Petco Park, is the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball. The 2015 Bill James Baseball Handbook estimates that it suppresses home runs by 12%, home runs by right-handed hitters like Quentin by 24%, and runs by 17% compared to the average NL ballpark. In his three seasons there, Quentin slugged just .394 at home but a robust .510 on the road. His overall numbers were clearly dragged down by his home park. Oriole Park, by contrast, is more hitter-friendly, boosting runs by 5% and righties' homers by 7%. Quentin's overall numbers would benefit from a move.
• Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316: Pearce (.373), Young (.337), and Machado (.324). Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness. 

Track record as a DH, buy low, reasonable contract (always a plus for Angelos), fills a need...all the Orioles need is for Duquette to continue to show signs of life. Do it, Dan. You're not going to work for the Blue Jays this year anyway.

The Week That Was: National League East

The past week was the most frenetic in my recent memory in terms of baseball transactions. In this and the following posts, I'm going to try to break it down, division by division. For each team, I'll list the players they traded, the players they received in trades, and the free agents they signed, then my take on the likely short-term (2015 season) and long-term (2016 and beyond) impact.

A few ground rules:

• I'm considering team rosters going into the week. For example, the Pirates signed Francisco Liriano to a free agent contract. Liriano had been a Pirate the past two seasons, but he became a free agent after the World Series. So he counts as an addition to the Pirates. Similarly, two Oriole free agents, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, signed with other clubs. Those don't count as losses for Baltimore, as they stopped being Orioles when they filed for free agency on October 30.
• I'm excluding minor deals. The Dodgers traded Drew Butera, a reserve catcher who batted .188 this year, to the Angels for a player to be named later. That's not the type of deal I'm looking at.
• I'm ignoring the money. It really isn't all that material, at least in the short term. A huge contract is a problem only if (1) it sets the bar higher for all players, making less-moneyed teams less able to compete, (2) it results in the team owning a high-salaried player becoming so hamstrung by the contract that they can't afford other necessary moves, or (3) a team feels obligated to play a bad player who's making a lot of money. (2012 Angels, leaving Trout in Salt Lake in April while Vernon Wells and his $21 million contract batted .225 with a .244 on base percentage, I'm lookin' at you.) 
• I'll list all players alphabetically.

Let's start in the National League East.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Traded for: Nobody

Traded away: Nobody

Free agents signed: IF Alberto Callaspo, RP Jim Johnson, OF Nick Markakis

2015 Impact: Any team that signs free agents and doesn't trade anyone away has to improve itself, right? So the Braves have improved themselves. Callaspo turns 32 next year and had a terrible 2014 (.223 on batting average, .290 on base percentage, .290 slugging percentage) but can play a bunch of positions. Johnson saved 101 games for the Orioles in 2012-13 but compiled a 5.08 ERA for Oakland and Detroit last year. Both were low-dollar one-year signings. If they don't work out, the Braves will get rid of them, no harm done. Markakis will fill the right field hole created by the trade of Jason Heyward to St. Louis. Heyward's better, but Markakis is an OK player. He's got on-base skills but not a lot of power and he's an overrated outfielder.

2016+ Impact: I'd be mildly surprised if Callaspo and Johnson are still with the club in 2016. Markakis will be 32 and likely in decline, but still, he's better than nothing.

MIAMI MARLINS

Traded for: 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, SP Mat Latos, SP Andre Rienzo, IF Miguel Rojas

Traded away: C-IF Austin Barnes, RP Chris Hatcher, SP Andrew Heaney, OF-IF Enrique Hernandez, RP Dan Jennings, SP Anthony DeSclafani, C Chad Wallach

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: You are forgiven if you haven't heard of any of the guys the Marlins traded; Hatcher and Jennings were the only two who saw significant time in the majors. The team has a deep farm system and they traded prospects for established major leaguers (Gordon, Haren, and Latos). In other words, they traded a bunch of guys who probably wouldn't contribute much in 2015 for some guys who will. So they improved the short-term outlook. By how much, I'm not all that sure. Haren is 34 and has hinted that he may retire if he can't play for a West Coast team near his family. (This has led to speculation that the Marlins may trade the former Dodger to the Angels.) Latos had an injury-shortened 2014. It was the first time since his rookie season in 2009 that he didn't start at least 31 games. It's also disconcerting that his strikeout rate has declined every year since 2010, falling from a good 25% of batters faced that year to a below-average 18% in 2014. As for Gordon, people make a big issue about his 64 stolen bases in 2014, but I'm wondering who the real Dee Gordon is:

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011-2013	181	621	81	159	19	5	2	34	66	19	78%	37	110	.256	.301	.312	.614
2014 thru July 6	85	334	50	101	14	9	2	25	42	9	82%	27	54	.302	.356	.416	.772
2014 after July 6	60	275	42	75	10	3	0	9	22	10	69%	4	53	.273	.287	.331	.618

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2014.

Now, it could very well be that Gordon just got worn down last year, his first as a full-time regular, and that's why he slumped so badly at the end of the season. (Don't get swayed by his OK batting average; leadoff hitters are paid to get on base, and his .287 on base percentage was atrocious.) On the other hand, maybe his hot start last year was the aberration. My money's more on the latter than the former. Plus, he's not all that young (he turns 27 in April) and he's not a good fielder.

2016+ Impact: When you trade prospects, there's always the risk that you'll miss out on a future star. I'm not really blown away by the players the Marlins received, and of the ones they traded, well, going into the season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Heaney No. 1 and DeScalfani No. 6 in the Marlins' system, which he ranked No. 19 in the majors (link behind ESPN Insider paywall). I think these moves are likely to wind up hurting the Marlins in 2017 if not 2016.

NEW YORK METS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Man, it's tough to be a Mets fan.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Traded for: SP Joely Rodriguez
Traded away: RP Antonio Bastardo
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: The trade listed here is a pretty minor one. The 29-year-old Bastardo is a decent left-handed reliever (3.43 career ERA in 270 relief appearances with 305 strikeouts in 236.1 innings). Former Pirate farmhand Rodriguez, 23, is a lefty starter who was pretty good in Class A in 2013 (2.70 ERA), not so much at AA in 2014 (4.84 ERA). The bigger Phillies trade involves their shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, who is being traded to the Dodgers, though the details of the trade (like, who the Phils are getting) haven't been finalized. The subtext is: Phillies management realizes that the team is too old and has a lousy farm system, so it needs to trade major-league talent for prospects. The impact will be negative in 2015 for a team that wasn't going to be any good anyway.

2016+ Impact: That depends on whom they get for Rollins. Rodriguez isn't a top prospect.


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Traded for: 2B Chris Bostick, RP Abel De Los Santos
Traded away: RP Ross Detwiler
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This is a pretty minor deal for the team that finished with the best record in the league last year and probably doesn't need a lot of tinkering. Detwiler was not a major contributor in 2014 and didn't figure prominently into the team's 2015 plans. Bostick, 21, was a 44th round (!) draft pick in 2011 and his teammate for part of the season, 22-year-old De Los Santos, had a good year for two A-level teams this year (1.92 ERA, 65 strikeouts in 56.1 innings spread across 41 games). Law ranked Bostick No. 6 in the Rangers organization at the start of the season.

2016+ Impact: It'll be positive for Washington if Bostick or De Los Santos pans out, but that's not certain. Given the team's problems at second base (Washington second basemen had a .229/.296/.377 slash line in 2014, giving them a .672 OPS, which is pretty bad, though it ranked seventh in the NL), this could wind up being a nice trade for the Nationals if Bostick progresses.

Reality Check: Jim Duquette

In my Reality Checks, I've been posting the name of the person or player who's the subject of the statement I'm checking, rather than the speaker. I'm making an exception here for reasons that will become clear.

Jim Duquette mentioned this today on SiriusXM Radio. Duquette was the New York Mets' general manager in 2004 and he had other front office roles with the Mets and Orioles. His show, "Power Alley" with Mike Ferrin is my favorite program on MLB Network Radio.

Duquette and Ferrin were discussing Nick Markakis, the Orioles' right fielder for the past nine seasons and a fan favorite. He signed a four-year $44 million contract with the Braves yesterday, resulting in much gnashing of teeth in Baltimore. 

Duquette mentioned a couple corner outfielders as fairly comparable. Here they are:

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
A	426	1608	221	427	80	18	34	153	63	30	136	375	.266	.329	.401	.730	100
B	419	1696	229	474	79	4	37	163	6	5	159	211	.279	.342	.396	.739	105

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/4/2014.

They are both about the same age. Player B is better on getting on base, Player A has a little more pop. Overall, they're pretty close, though Player B is a little better hitter, given his higher OPS and OPS+ (OPS adjusted for home park, 100=league average). Player A has more speed, given the big difference in steals. I'll add a couple things that don't show up here: Neither of them is a particularly good fielder, though Player B has a reputation as such. And to amplify the baserunning angle, A was much more successful at taking an extra base, whether going from first to third on singles (which he did on 25% of opportunities vs. 8% for B), second to home on singles (55% of opportunities vs. 38% for B), and first to home on doubles (45% of opportunities vs. 17% for B). 

Player B is Nick Markakis. Player A is Alejandro de Aza, whom the Orioles acquired in a trade for two minor-leaguers last August from the White Sox after de Aza cleared waivers.

Markakis is an Orioles icon. De Aza is penciled in as a starter but, well, let's just say that there are a lot fewer kids in Charm City with Alejandro de Aza replica jerseys than those wearing Markakis's No. 21.

I'm not saying that they're equals. Markakis is the better hitter, de Aza's the better runner, and Markakis plays a more important defensive position (right) than de Aza (left). To me, that nets out to an edge for Markakis. But it's a slight one, and Duquette made a very sharp observation when he said that the two provide similar value. Had it been de Aza departing, would Orioles fans have cared? Or put another way, does the departure of an Alejandro de Aza-quality player--remember, the White Sox traded him for two fringe-y prospects--warrant the heartbreak expressed by Orioles fans?