Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Earlier this week, I addressed concerns that the Pirates can't win against teams with a winning record. It's true that they have a losing record against teams playing .500 or better. But so do most teams. In fact, the Pirates are now sixth in the league in winning percentage against .500 or better teams. But here's another issue, as they enter play against the 35-38 Atlanta Braves: They haven't played a lot of games against good teams. The Cardinals have played 38 games against teams at .500 or better, 34 against teams with losing records. The Cubs have played 38 games against better teams, 33 against those with losing records. For the Pirates, the split is 30/42. I'll do a strength-of-schedule post sometime later, but the team is going to face some tougher competition as the season moves forward.

How Are They Doing Lately? Not great. They're 13-15 over the last 30 days. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, fifth in the league, and allowed 4.4 per game, the fifth most. So the problem's been pitching more than hitting. They lost two of three to the Pirates earlier this month, and the three games this weekend are the last time the two clubs will meet this season. 

What's Going Right? The Braves are batting .268, third in the league over the last 30 days, and they're second in on base percentage, .327. So they've been getting on base a lot. The starters have a good ERA, 3.54, fifth best in the league, but with the lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-highest walk rate. No team's starters have kept the ball in the strike zone more than the Braves (53% of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days), but they're not fooling batters with pitches outside the strike zone, as batters have swung at less than 29% of pitches outside the zone, second fewest in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The team's slugging .367 over the last 30 days, third worst in the league. They've hit only 16 homers, tied for fewest in the league, and 43 doubles, tied for the fifth fewest. They lead the league in singles over the last 30 days, with 201, 19 more than the second-place Pirates. So the Braves have hit a lot of singles but lack power, and that's limited their ability to score. The bullpen's been a weakness all season, and the 4.44 relievers' ERA over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league.

Who's Hot? The Pirates won't face the Braves' best starter, Shelby Miller (2.65 ERA over the past 30 days), but the three they will face have been pretty good: Williams Perez (2.32 ERA, but walking nearly a batter every other inning), Julio Teheran (4.28 ERA but a gem in his last start, seven one-hit innings against the Mets) and Alex Wood (2.97 ERA). Closer and former Pirate Jason Grilli has a 0.75 ERA and seven saves over the last 30 days and reclamation project Jim Johnson (7.09 ERA last year with two teams) has a 2.77 ERA and two saves. Rookie second baseman Jace Peterson and center fielder Cameron Maybin have been a solid one-two punch at the top of the lineup, with on base percentages of .373 and .367, respectively. Shortstop and fielding wizard Andrelton Simmons has batted .320 with a .371 on base percentage over the past 30 days, albeit with only three extra-base hits.

Who's Not? Take away Grilli and Johnson and the Braves bullpen has a 5.76 ERA. The Braves' best hitter, Freddie Freeman, just hit the disabled list, and he accounted for seven of the club's sixteen homers over the past 30 days. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski has a .286 on base percentage over the last 30 days, and the team's had a sinkhole in left field all year. 

What's the Outlook? I said this the last time the teams met, and I'll say it again: The key for the Pirates will be to get to the Braves' starters early to get at the middle relief underbelly of the Braves' bullpen and keep the ball out of their former teammate Grilli's hand.

Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Sweeping the Giants at AT&T Park...didn't see that coming. Going into the series, as I noted, the Giants had the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games. Now, the team with the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games is...the Pittsburgh Pirates.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, there have been four pretty good teams in the National League: the Pirates (17-10), Nationals (16-10), Cardinals, and Giants (both 16-12). There have been four pretty bad teams: the Marlins (9-18), Brewers (10-17, Reds (10-16), and Phillies (11-16). Everybody else is between 13-15 and 15-12. That includes the Braves, 13-13. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, seventh in the league. They've given up 4.3, which is ninth. They're pretty much .500 at everything.

What's Going Right? The offense hasn't been anything special, but over the past 30 days, the Braves have the been the fifth-toughest team to fan, they're tied for fifth with 17 stolen bases, and they've succeeded in 77% of their stolen base attempts, the second-best percentage in the league. The starters' 3.83 ERA is the fifth best in the league over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. The starters have gotten only the eighth-most strikeouts while allowing the fourth-most walks, suggesting that their recent success may not last. The problem on offense has been power: the Braves have 12 homers over the past 30 days, last in the National League, and they and the Padres (17) are the only teams with fewer than 22 homers. 

Who's Hot? Freddie Freeman's bat has carried the offense over the past 30 days: .297/.360/.515 slash line, leading the club in homers (5) and RBI (19). Nick Markakis leads the team in batting average (.320) and on base percentage (.398) and is second in slugging percentage (.430), a function of his team-leading 21 singles and 11 doubles. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, as usual, provides highlights-reel defense. Starters Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Williams Perez have combined for a 5-1 record and 1.80 ERA with two home runs allowed over the past 30 days. The team's two primary setup relievers, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan, have ERAs of 2.38 and 0.93, respectively, over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Christian Bethancourt have matching .182 batting averages over the past 30 days. Left fielder Jonny Gomes has a .208/.235/.271 slash line. Alberto Callaspo and his .150/.255/.150 slash line held down third for much of the past 30 days, but he's been traded, with Juan Uribe and Chris Johnson taking over. The starters not named Miller, Perez, or Wood have a 5.87 ERA over the past 30 days.

The facile explanation of the bullpen's struggles is the departure, via a season-opening trade, of closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. The Braves' new closer, former Pirate Jason Grilli, hasn't dominated over the past 30 days--4.32 ERA, 4.3 walks per nine innings, .417 batting average on balls in play--but he's 7-for-7 in saves. Kimbrel's been unremarkable over the same period: 3.86 ERA, 3.9 walks per nine, .409 batting average on balls in play, 4-for-5 in saves. So the problem's not Kimbrel's absence. Rather, it's been the bullpen other than Grilli, Johnson, and Avilan: the other Braves relievers have combined for a 7.85 ERA.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates draw two of the Braves' hot starters, Perez and Wood, followed by the inconsistent Julio Teheran (1.08 ERA in his four wins, 7.50 ERA in his two losses and five no-decisions). I wasn't expecting a sweep in San Francisco, and I'm not expecting one in Atlanta, either. The key, it seems to me, will be getting to the Braves' starters early in order to get to the weak middle of the Atlanta bullpen.

The Week That Was: National League East

The past week was the most frenetic in my recent memory in terms of baseball transactions. In this and the following posts, I'm going to try to break it down, division by division. For each team, I'll list the players they traded, the players they received in trades, and the free agents they signed, then my take on the likely short-term (2015 season) and long-term (2016 and beyond) impact.

A few ground rules:

• I'm considering team rosters going into the week. For example, the Pirates signed Francisco Liriano to a free agent contract. Liriano had been a Pirate the past two seasons, but he became a free agent after the World Series. So he counts as an addition to the Pirates. Similarly, two Oriole free agents, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, signed with other clubs. Those don't count as losses for Baltimore, as they stopped being Orioles when they filed for free agency on October 30.
• I'm excluding minor deals. The Dodgers traded Drew Butera, a reserve catcher who batted .188 this year, to the Angels for a player to be named later. That's not the type of deal I'm looking at.
• I'm ignoring the money. It really isn't all that material, at least in the short term. A huge contract is a problem only if (1) it sets the bar higher for all players, making less-moneyed teams less able to compete, (2) it results in the team owning a high-salaried player becoming so hamstrung by the contract that they can't afford other necessary moves, or (3) a team feels obligated to play a bad player who's making a lot of money. (2012 Angels, leaving Trout in Salt Lake in April while Vernon Wells and his $21 million contract batted .225 with a .244 on base percentage, I'm lookin' at you.) 
• I'll list all players alphabetically.

Let's start in the National League East.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Traded for: Nobody

Traded away: Nobody

Free agents signed: IF Alberto Callaspo, RP Jim Johnson, OF Nick Markakis

2015 Impact: Any team that signs free agents and doesn't trade anyone away has to improve itself, right? So the Braves have improved themselves. Callaspo turns 32 next year and had a terrible 2014 (.223 on batting average, .290 on base percentage, .290 slugging percentage) but can play a bunch of positions. Johnson saved 101 games for the Orioles in 2012-13 but compiled a 5.08 ERA for Oakland and Detroit last year. Both were low-dollar one-year signings. If they don't work out, the Braves will get rid of them, no harm done. Markakis will fill the right field hole created by the trade of Jason Heyward to St. Louis. Heyward's better, but Markakis is an OK player. He's got on-base skills but not a lot of power and he's an overrated outfielder.

2016+ Impact: I'd be mildly surprised if Callaspo and Johnson are still with the club in 2016. Markakis will be 32 and likely in decline, but still, he's better than nothing.

MIAMI MARLINS

Traded for: 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, SP Mat Latos, SP Andre Rienzo, IF Miguel Rojas

Traded away: C-IF Austin Barnes, RP Chris Hatcher, SP Andrew Heaney, OF-IF Enrique Hernandez, RP Dan Jennings, SP Anthony DeSclafani, C Chad Wallach

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: You are forgiven if you haven't heard of any of the guys the Marlins traded; Hatcher and Jennings were the only two who saw significant time in the majors. The team has a deep farm system and they traded prospects for established major leaguers (Gordon, Haren, and Latos). In other words, they traded a bunch of guys who probably wouldn't contribute much in 2015 for some guys who will. So they improved the short-term outlook. By how much, I'm not all that sure. Haren is 34 and has hinted that he may retire if he can't play for a West Coast team near his family. (This has led to speculation that the Marlins may trade the former Dodger to the Angels.) Latos had an injury-shortened 2014. It was the first time since his rookie season in 2009 that he didn't start at least 31 games. It's also disconcerting that his strikeout rate has declined every year since 2010, falling from a good 25% of batters faced that year to a below-average 18% in 2014. As for Gordon, people make a big issue about his 64 stolen bases in 2014, but I'm wondering who the real Dee Gordon is:

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011-2013	181	621	81	159	19	5	2	34	66	19	78%	37	110	.256	.301	.312	.614
2014 thru July 6	85	334	50	101	14	9	2	25	42	9	82%	27	54	.302	.356	.416	.772
2014 after July 6	60	275	42	75	10	3	0	9	22	10	69%	4	53	.273	.287	.331	.618

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2014.

Now, it could very well be that Gordon just got worn down last year, his first as a full-time regular, and that's why he slumped so badly at the end of the season. (Don't get swayed by his OK batting average; leadoff hitters are paid to get on base, and his .287 on base percentage was atrocious.) On the other hand, maybe his hot start last year was the aberration. My money's more on the latter than the former. Plus, he's not all that young (he turns 27 in April) and he's not a good fielder.

2016+ Impact: When you trade prospects, there's always the risk that you'll miss out on a future star. I'm not really blown away by the players the Marlins received, and of the ones they traded, well, going into the season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Heaney No. 1 and DeScalfani No. 6 in the Marlins' system, which he ranked No. 19 in the majors (link behind ESPN Insider paywall). I think these moves are likely to wind up hurting the Marlins in 2017 if not 2016.

NEW YORK METS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Man, it's tough to be a Mets fan.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Traded for: SP Joely Rodriguez
Traded away: RP Antonio Bastardo
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: The trade listed here is a pretty minor one. The 29-year-old Bastardo is a decent left-handed reliever (3.43 career ERA in 270 relief appearances with 305 strikeouts in 236.1 innings). Former Pirate farmhand Rodriguez, 23, is a lefty starter who was pretty good in Class A in 2013 (2.70 ERA), not so much at AA in 2014 (4.84 ERA). The bigger Phillies trade involves their shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, who is being traded to the Dodgers, though the details of the trade (like, who the Phils are getting) haven't been finalized. The subtext is: Phillies management realizes that the team is too old and has a lousy farm system, so it needs to trade major-league talent for prospects. The impact will be negative in 2015 for a team that wasn't going to be any good anyway.

2016+ Impact: That depends on whom they get for Rollins. Rodriguez isn't a top prospect.


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Traded for: 2B Chris Bostick, RP Abel De Los Santos
Traded away: RP Ross Detwiler
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This is a pretty minor deal for the team that finished with the best record in the league last year and probably doesn't need a lot of tinkering. Detwiler was not a major contributor in 2014 and didn't figure prominently into the team's 2015 plans. Bostick, 21, was a 44th round (!) draft pick in 2011 and his teammate for part of the season, 22-year-old De Los Santos, had a good year for two A-level teams this year (1.92 ERA, 65 strikeouts in 56.1 innings spread across 41 games). Law ranked Bostick No. 6 in the Rangers organization at the start of the season.

2016+ Impact: It'll be positive for Washington if Bostick or De Los Santos pans out, but that's not certain. Given the team's problems at second base (Washington second basemen had a .229/.296/.377 slash line in 2014, giving them a .672 OPS, which is pretty bad, though it ranked seventh in the NL), this could wind up being a nice trade for the Nationals if Bostick progresses.