Tom Verducci writes about baseball for Sports Illustrated and talks about on the MLB Network. He's a smart guy and a great writer. He's passionate about the game as well, writing on occasion about ways it could be better. He did so last week, proposing that baseball do something to limit defensive shifts: moving fielders to one side or the other of second base in order to take advantage of hitters' tendencies to hit the ball there. You know, like this:
Verducci cites the situation pictured above in particular, when the player at the plate is lefthanded, he tends to hit balls to the right side of the infield, and, in addition, he's slow. (I can't speak to the speed of the guy at the plate in this picture; I can't make him out.) He cites slow left-handed batters who pull having down years: Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, Jay Bruce, Adam Dunn, Brian McCann, Shin-Soo Choo, David Ortiz, and Adrian Gonzalez, among others. He has a pretty convincing table: batting average on balls in play (i.e., excluding at bats that result in strikeouts or home runs) for left-handed hitters when they hit the ball to the right side of the infield:
2005 .379
2006 .386
2007 .353
2008 .358
2009 .350
2010 .351
2011 .332
2012 .313
2013 .323
2014 .301
Verducci:
In 2010, Howard, McCann, Ortiz, Bruce, Dunn, Choo, Curtis Granderson and Adam LaRoche all were among the best lefthanded hitters in the game. None of them were All-Stars this year. Fewer hits to the pull field – into the shift – is one reason. Throw in former All-Stars Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, two more slow-footed sluggers (and using only their numbers batting lefthanded), and you can see how the shift is harming lefthanders...
Ignore that some of those guys haven't been good for years. His point, that the shift's affected lefties since the Tampa Bay Rays started becoming shift-happy in 2008, seems to be borne out by the numbers above. His solution: That baseball should look into establishing an "illegal defense rule" that'd limit the number of infielders on either side of second base to two.
Verducci's proposal met with a fair amount of criticism on the Internet, partly because he's proposing a pretty significant change to the rules of the game. I don't really buy that. The rules of baseball aren't inviolable; we added replay and removed home plate collisions this year. If there's a problem in the game, let's address it.
The problem I have is that I'm not sure the response Verducci's proposing--limiting defensive shifts--will address the problem of a decline in offense, simply because there's not a lot of evidence I can see that shifts are the culprit. I'm going to show you a somewhat busy table, so let me explain the columns. The first one, Year, is self-explanatory. BABIP is the batting average on balls in play--that is, the batting average when the batter puts the ball in play (doesn't strike out, walk, get hit by the pitch, etc.) and doesn't hit a home run. Ground is the batting average on ground balls. L vs. L is the batting average for left-handed hitters--the focus of Verducci's research--against left-handed pitchers. L vs. R is the batting average for left-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers. If defensive shifts are hurting offenses, particularly with lefties at the plate, we should see all of these batting averages decline with time, as shifted fielders turn what used to be hits into outs. Here's the table:
Year BABIP Ground L vs. L L vs. R
2005 .295 .233 .295 .299
2006 .301 .236 .294 .302
2007 .303 .239 .301 .312
2008 .300 .237 .298 .302
2009 .299 .232 .286 .299
2010 .297 .234 .299 .298
2011 .295 .231 .291 .301
2012 .297 .234 .287 .299
2013 .297 .232 .293 .300
2014 .299 .237 .297 .307
Do you see any evidence from those number that defensive shifts--which have grown in popularity especially in the last couple years--have hampered offense? I can't. As of today, the batting average on balls in play at its highest level since 2009. The batting average on grounders is the highest it's been since 2008. Left-handed hitters are hitting better against lefties than any year since 2010 and against righties since 2007. Offense is surely down, but it's not because defensive shifts are resulting in plummeting batting averages. So I don't see a need to legislate against shifts.
As to why offense if down: batters are striking out in 20.3% of plate appearances, the most in history--the rate's risen for nine straight years--the walk rate's declined for five straight years and is now at its lowest level since 1968, batters are hitting balls on the ground, which produce a lower OPS than balls hit in the air, at the highest rate since stats became available in 2002, and the percentage of fly balls leaving the park has declined for two years, to the lowest level since 2011. That's why. Sounds like a problem of good pitching rather than innovative defense.
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central,
and East along with the American League Central and East.
Oakland Athletics - 96-66 in 2013, 4.7 runs scored per game (4th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (9th in MLB): I always get the feeling that the A's are just a couple steps ahead of the posse. In the Moneyball era, they had a lot of guys who got on base a lot; now everyone's doing it. Last year they emphasized pitchers who give up fly balls and batters who hit them; probably the league catches up to them on that as well. They've won more games over the past two years than any team in the American League. I think it's going to be hard to keep that streak going. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 91-71.
Texas Rangers - 91-72, 4.5 runs scored per game (8th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (10th in MLB): The Rangers made a couple huge offseason deals, signing on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo to lead off and trading second baseman Ian Kinsler for lefty slugger Prince Fielder. The trade of Kinsler opens up second to Jurickson Profar, a highly-touted prospect who disappointed last year, compiling an OPS that was 24% below the league average (adjusting for his home park), but Profar turned 21 only last month (though he's out with a shoulder injury). The pitching staff is a worry, with last year's Cy Young runner-up followed by a bunch of guys with injury problems. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 89-73.
Los Angeles Angels - 78-84, 4.5 runs scored per game (7th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (24th in MLB): Albert Pujols is apparently recovered from his foot problems, Josh Hamilton was OK in the second half of last season, and they still have Mike Trout. Pitching was the problem last year, and they added youngster Tyler Skaggs and lefty Hector Santiago in the trade for Mark Trumbo. When this team plopped down all that money on Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Hamilton, they thought they were buying pennants. They didn't, but I think they're getting closer. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 83-79.
Seattle Mariners - 71-91, 3.9 runs scored per game (22nd in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (26th in MLB): You might have heard that they signed former Yankees 2B Robinson Cano, one of the best players in baseball. Other than that, their deals were minor, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in the Cy Young voting, is out with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 76-86.
Houston Astros - 51-111, 3.8 runs scored per game (26th in MLB), 5.2 runs allowed per game (30th in MLB): It's tempting to look at last year's team and just say, "Well, they can't be much worse." I think they'll do better than that. They added CF Dexter Fowler via trade and starting pitchers Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams via free agency. The Astros also have a lot of strong prospects whom we'll likely see later in the season. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 56-106.
In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.
I started with the NL West. Now the Central.
St. Louis Cardinals, 97-55: You know how I found that while the best pitchers get hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, swinging at pitches outside the zone doesn't seem to hurt hitters? The Cardinals are my case in point. Top five Cardinals hitters, measured by OPS: Matt Holliday .879, Matt Carpenter .873, Matt Adams .839, Yadier Molina .836, Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, .830. Top five Cardinals hitters, swinging at pitches outside the strike zone: Molina 36.4%, Adams 33.1%, Craig 32.2%, Holliday 31.7%, Beltran 31.5%. All those swings at pitches outside the zone didn't hurt them.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 94-68: The National League had a losing record (146-154) in interleague play last year. But don't blame the Pirates. Their 15-5 record was easily the best in the league. Chop that down to a more league-average 10-10 and the wild card play-in game that Pittsburgh hosted (and won) would've been in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Reds, 90-72: The role of the leadoff hitter is to get on base, and no team struggled with that more in 2012 than the Reds, whose leadoff hitters had a paltry .254 on base percentage that year. (That's not a ton better than their pitchers' .176). Then the Reds got Shin-Soo Choo via trade before last year, and they had by far the best leadoff OBP, .415, in the league, with Choo accounting for all but 96 of the team's leadoff plate appearances. Now Choo's in Texas, so who's going to lead off? Here are some bad answers: The guys who batted second for the Reds (.281, the worst OBP in that lineup slot), the guys who batted fifth (.307, 12th), and the guys who batted seventh (.298, tenth).
Milwaukee Brewers, 74-88: The Brewers first basemen were remarkably terrible last year. How terrible? Their .629 OPS - compiled via a .206 batting average, .259 on base percentage, and .370 slugging percentage - was not only the worst among National League first basemen, it was worse than all but the Cubs second basemen, all but the Reds and Marlins catchers, and all but the Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, and Cubs shortstops. Put another way, the Brewers first basemen had an OPS 52 points lower than the average National League shortstop.
Chicago Cubs, 66-96: I pointed out in the Diamondbacks comment that a good record in one-run games (the Diamondbacks had the league's best last year) is no guarantee of continued success in tight games, as Arizona has gone from first to worst to first the past three years. There's hope in that for the Cubs, whose 20-33 record in one-run games last year was the league's worst. That would suggest the Cubs' one-run game performance, and thereby the team's overall record, should improve this year. On the other hand, the Cubs tied with the aforementioned Diamondbacks for the worst record in on-run games in 2012 as well, so maybe this is yet another Cubs curse. They have somehow managed to have a losing record in one-run games every year since 2008.
Yet another Pirates bullpen post (beats A-Rod, right?)...
When I wrote about Monday night's game, during which Jason Grilli got hurt, the Pirates brought in Vin Mazzaro for the last out, earning the first save of his five year career.
I am a big Vin Mazzaro fan. He was drafted by the A's out of high school in Hackensack, NJ in 2005. After posting 5+ ERAs in his first two minor league seasons, he had a big year at AA Midland in 2008 (12-3, 1.90 ERA over 22 starts) and spent most of 2009 and 2010 with Oakland, starting 35 games 4.72 ERA. He was traded to the Royals in November 2010. He was expected to be the team's fifth starter, but after a lousy spring and a lousier start of the year in AAA Omaha, he stayed in the minors until May. He was called up for a start against the Yankees on May 11 (4 innings, 2 runs and a no-decision in a game the Royals won 4-3). He then sat until May 16, at home against the Indians.
Kyle Davies started the game for the Royals but left with an injury after getting just one out and walking the bases full. Nathan Adcock came in, allowed two of Davies' runners to score, and another run in the second. He left in the third inning after the leadoff runner got on base. He was replaced by Vin Mazzaro, in his second game as a Royal.
Mazzaro pitched two and a third innings. He struck out two, but walked three and gave up 11 hits, one a homer, and was charged with 14 runs. The Royals lost, 19-1.
Now, giving up 14 runs in a game isn't unheard of. Nineteen pitchers since 1916 (that's how far back game data go) have given up 14 or more earned runs in a game. But most of those guys pitched in the early part of the 20th century, when relief pitchers were rare. Since World War II, only four pitchers matched Mazzaro's 14. And Mazzaro is the only pitcher to have given up 14 runs in fewer than three innings.
Here's the thing: I was at the game. I remember it for two things. One was a group of young Korean-American girls who ran down to the railing of the upper deck where I was sitting to snap pictures every time Shin-Soo Choo came to the plate for the Indians. The other was wondering why Ned Yost left Mazzaro in to take that pounding. It's not like the bullpen was depleted that Monday; the Royals didn't play Sunday, they got a complete game Saturday, and they used two relievers for two innings Friday. It just seemed gratuitous.
Then, the next day, the Royals sent him back to Omaha. With his 22.74 ERA. I remember sportswriters suggesting that we'd seen the last of Vin Mazzaro.
We hadn't. He pitched again for the Royals in June and September, compiling a 4.09 ERA over five games and 22 innings. Last year he also split time between Kansas City and Omaha, with a 5.73 ERA in 44 innings, spread over 18 games. The last nine games were in September, exclusively in relief, and his ERA of 4.63 in those appearances consisted of two games in which he allowed three runs each and seven games in which he allowed none.
That was good enough for the Pirates, who recently have had an uncanny ability with pitching reclamation projects (A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Joel Hanrahan, and, of course, injured closer Jason Grilli, who had five saves in ten seasons before this year). They traded for Mazzaro in November. In 33 appearances this year, he's 5-2 with that one save, and career bests for ERA (2.62), WHIP (1.14), strikeouts per nine (6.0), walks per nine (2.0), home runs per nine (0.6), strikeouts to walks (3.0), groundballs per fly ball (1.02)--pretty much everything good.
Not bad for a guy who had what one writer called The Worst Pitching Performance Ever. And certainly the worst one I saw.
