Since The Break

Some tidbits about the Pirates since the All-Star break:

• They're 33-21, tied with the Cardinals and Rangers for the fourth-best record in all of baseball, trailing the Blue Jays (37-15), Mets (35-19), and Cubs (35-20). So yes, the four best records in the National League since the break are those of the Mets followed by the three top NL Central teams.
• Their starting pitchers have been mediocre: 4.18 ERA, ninth in the NL, and a 20-20 won-lost record. They've probably been somewhat unlucky, allowing the second-highest batting average on balls in play and the fifth-lowest strand rate (baserunners not coming around to score). Those both tend to be measures of luck more than skill. 
• The bullpen, though...3.12 ERA, third in the league, although helped by the third-highest strand rate in the league. Addressing the question of overuse, Pirates relievers have thrown the sixth most innings since the break but faced the seventh most batters and thrown the eighth most pitches--they've continued to be effective.
• The offensive has come alive. Seventh in the league in runs before the break, they're third since.

Looking at the offense, here are the team's hitters (minimum 40 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star Break.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	H1	Diff
Jung Ho Kang	50	187	33	59	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	46	.316	.373	.567	.939	.732	+.207
Andrew McCutchen	52	189	37	58	9	1	10	36	2	2	34	53	.307	.415	.524	.939	.892	+.047
Mike Morse	28	43	5	14	3	1	1	4	0	0	5	12	.326	.408	.512	.920	NA	NA
Pedro Alvarez	51	140	20	36	4	0	11	28	1	0	14	50	.257	.327	.521	.848	.733	+.115
Francisco Cervelli	45	152	20	47	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	28	.309	.401	.428	.829	.766	+.063
Gregory Polanco	52	220	31	63	14	3	5	20	7	3	16	43	.286	.335	.445	.780	.653	+.127
Starling Marte	51	186	31	53	11	2	3	19	10	2	5	29	.285	.338	.414	.752	.784	-.032
Sean Rodriguez	47	84	12	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	24	.298	.337	.405	.742	.589	+.153
Aramis Ramirez	41	145	13	36	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.248	.297	.421	.718	NA	NA
Neil Walker	52	176	21	42	7	3	6	25	0	0	18	28	.239	.299	.415	.713	.755	-.042
Josh Harrison	21	58	9	16	2	0	0	3	1	3	5	9	.276	.354	.310	.664	.696	-.032
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662	NA	NA
Chris Stewart	22	49	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	9	.286	.308	.286	.593	.702	-.109
Jordy Mercer	20	58	4	12	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	14	.207	.288	.241	.529	.615	-.086

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/14/2015.

In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.

A few things seem apparent from the table:

• The Pirates need Jung Ho Kang in the lineup. He's lost playing time to Aramis Ramirez at third and to Jordy Mercer at shortstop. He's been pretty clearly a better hitter than both, and only Mercer carries a notably superior glove. 
• There's been talk of platooning Polanco and Harrison in right. On paper, that makes sense: Harrison has a .718 OPS against left-handed pitchers, while Polanco's is just .555. But Polanco's been a different hitter since the break. His OPS against lefties was .356 (!) before the break, .707 since. Small sample warning--that .707 is based on only 55 plate appearances--but the difference between Polanco and Harrison against southpaws has been pretty small.
• Harrison's platoon advantage makes more sense to me at second, where Neil Walker has a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers but only .597 against lefties.
• The platoon of Alvarez and Morse at first base is quite effective at the plate, though it's cringe-worthy in the field. 

So if I'm Clint Hurdle, here's whom I'd play:

C: Cervelli, with Stewart giving him a breather

1B: Alvarez against righties, Morse against lefties, Ishikawa as late-inning defensive replacement

2B: Walker against righties, Harrison against lefties

SS: Kang, Mercer as late-inning defensive replacement with Kang moving over to third

3B: Ramirez against lefties, Harrison and Ramirez splitting time against righties as the situation dictates

LF: Marte

CF: McCutchen

RF: Polanco

But seriously. Since Mercer returned from the disabled list on August 23, the Pirates have started Mercer at short and Ramirez at third in six of their 21 games, or 29% of them. They're 10-5 in games that Kang's started and 3-3 in games that he hasn't. I'm all in favor of getting players occasional rest, but this man's basically been Andrew McCutchen at the plate in the second half of the season. Get him in the lineup.

My Team Went to the Trade Deadline and All I Got Was This Lousy Ramirez, Blanton, Soria, Happ, and Morse

I imagine some Pirates fans are disappointed by the team's trade deadline deals. Specifically, the team didn't land the big arms that got dealt (Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Jonathan Papelbon, David Price) nor the big bats (Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gomez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist). But realistically, that probably wasn't going to happen. Here's why:

• The Pirates aren't looking to take on big salaries. Look, I think this is kind of a BS argument. The city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy, but the Detroit Tigers have the fifth-highest payroll in the majors. Is that because Detroit is a big-revenue market? Of course not; it means the team is owned by a zillionaire who's willing to spend many tens of millions on his baseball team. The Pirates aren't in the same situation, but it's not dictated by the population of Greater Pittsburgh. Whatever, given that constraint, Tulowitzki (will make a minimum of $98 million after this season), Hamels ($76.5 million), Reyes ($46 million) and even Papelbon ($11 million) weren't going to happen.
• A two-month rental doesn't make a lot of sense for the Pirates. Stars who'll become free agents after this season aren't likely to sign with the Pirates, due to the team's salary constraints. So pending free agents would be with the club for only August, September and however long October lasts. That eliminates Price, Kazmir, Cueto, Leake, Zobrist, and Cespedes. Also Gomez, who'll be a free agent after next season (not that the Pirates need a new center fielder). 
• A bigger reason rentals don't make sense is the Pirates' place in the standings. They enter play tonight 5.5 games behind the Cardinals, 101 games into the season. Could they overtake the Cardinals and skip the wild card game? Sure, it's possible. Would a Cueto or a Cespedes help? Yes, of course. But realistically, the Pirates have won their league or division 16 times. They have never trailed by 5.5 games or more after 101 games and gone on to win. Giving up prime prospects in pursuit of a divisional title that isn't likely to come? That doesn't make sense. On the other hand, the Pirates are currently three games ahead of the Giants for the first wild card, five ahead of the Cubs, 7.5 ahead of the Mets. Nothing's certain, but they look pretty solid for the wild card, no better or worse. It's hard to justify paying a lot to try to exceed or defend that.

So whom did the Pirates get?

• Aramis Ramirez: Already covered this. He'll fill on at third until Josh Harrison comes back from the disabled list, and will continue to play there when the versatile Harrison plays other positions.
• Joe Blanton: He effectively replaces Vance Worley, who was waived. Most fans have two images of Blanton: The guy who went 2-0 in the 2008 postseason, starting three games that his team, the Phillies, won, en route to the World Series championship; and the arsonist who put up ERAs of 5.33, 5.01, 5.00, 4.99, and a hideous 6.51 from 2010-2013. After taking 2014 off, he signed a one-year contract with the Royals this year, for whom he put up decent numbers: 3.89 ERA, 41.2 innings, 1.20 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and just 6 unintentional walks. He'll fill the role of right-handed long reliever/possible spot starter.
• Joakim Soria: He's probably the best player the Pirates added. He was the Royals' closer from 2008-2011, had Tommy John surgery, and came back as a middle reliever for Texas in 2013. He was the Rangers' closer in 2014 and was traded mid-season to the Tigers, for whom he was the closer this year. He'll take his very good 2.85 ERA and less good 1.8 home runs per nine innings (league average for relievers is 1.0) to the Pirates bullpen, where he'll reduce the workload for his teammates. He'll provide  a right-handed counter to left-handed setup man Tony Watson, who had a 1.69 ERA through June 25 and a 7.56 ERA since. 
• J.A. Happ: In pitching coach Ray Searage we trust. Happ, a left-handed starter, hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2010, including this year, when he racked up a 4.64 ERA playing for Seattle, which plays in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Yes, the Pirates need a starter now that they've put A.J. Burnett on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but is Happ the answer? Here's a clue: This year he's thrown his four-seam (straight) fastball 49% of the time and his two-seam (sinking) fastball 15%. The Pirates, as you probably know, emphasize sinking pitches that generate ground balls. Before the 2013 season, the Pirates acquired a left-handed starter (like Happ) who threw both types of fastballs (like Happ). The player they signed has virtually eliminated the four-seamer, become a ground-ball stud (seventh highest ground ball percentage), and posted the 14th-lowest ERA in the National League (among 55 ERA qualifiers) in the three seasons since, 3.12. Am I suggesting that J.A. Happ can be the next Francisco Liriano, who's put up those number since 2013? Probably not, but we're talking about the No. 5 guy in the rotation until Burnett comes back, so there isn't a lot of risk. Happ's a free agent after this season, and his performance to date probably dictates a pay cut from the $6.7 million he's making in 2015.
• Mike Morse: I've talked about the Pirates' need to add a right-handed bat. Morse, a right-handed bat that's due $8.5 million in 2016, probably wasn't anybody's first choice. He batted .294 with a .343 on base percentage and a .514 slugging percentage in four years in Washington from 2009-2012, followed by a terrible .215/.270/.381 in 2013 with Seattle and Baltimore in 2013, a .279/.336/.475 rebound with San Francisco last year, and another bad year to date, .213/.276/.313 with the Marlins. He's been injury prone, but his role in Pittsburgh is likely to be that of pinch hitter and right-handed platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez at first, which should reduce wear and tear. He's a bad fielder at first, which constitutes an improvement over Alvarez. He can also play outfield, in the sense that Kardashians can read poetry: It's possible, but you'd rather not see it. He has been worse than useless against left-handed pitching this season (2-for-22, no extra base hits) but over his career, his .271/.331/.473 slash line against southpaws is a lot better than Alvarez's .198/.267/.322. 

All told, the Pirates improved themselves, in my view. Maybe not dramatically--Morse gives me flashbacks to Justin Morneau, whom the Pirates acquired at the end of August in 2013 and batted .260 with only 3 RBI over 25 games--but Soria eases pressure on the bullpen, Ramirez and Happ address short-term injury-related needs, and Blanton may be an upgrade over Worley. It's nothing flashy, but the Pirates don't appear to be a team that would benefit from flashy nor be hurt by the lack thereof.

Flyover: San Francisco Giants

This continues a series of looks at teams over the past month. Got the Dodgers yesterday, so let's check in on the San Francisco Giants today.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Giants have been just OK over the past 30 days, going 15-12. They've lost a game and a half to the first-place Dodgers and three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, with whom they're now tied. Since the Pirates took the season series between the clubs, 4-2, a wild card tie would mean the Giants would have to travel to PNC Park for a one-game play-in. Over the past 30 days, the Giants are third in the league in scoring, 4.7 runs per game, but fourth-to-last in run prevention, giving up 4.5 runs per game. 

What's Going Right? They'be been good at getting on base (.284 batting average, .336 on base percentage, both second in the league) over the past 30 days. Their .421 slugging percentage is fifth, as they've hit only 20 homers, which is tenth in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play is .330 compared to a league average of .303, suggesting that their batting average and on base percentage have been a little lucky, but only 7.5% of their fly balls have gone over the fence compared to a league average of 9.6%, suggesting that their slugging percentage and home run totals have been a little unlucky. The Giants have been the toughest team in the NL to fan, striking out in only 17% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 21%. They've had problems with their bullpen, as I'll explain below, but the starters have been best in the league at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (33%), they've struck out the most batters (23% of batters), and walked the fourth fewest (6%).

What's Going Wrong? The team ERA of 4.10 over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league. The starters have been mediocre (3.58 ERA, eighth in the league) but the relievers have been awful, with a league-worst 5.25 ERA. The relievers haven't allowed an unusually batting average on balls in play, one of the key factors indicating that they've been unlucky. They've just been bad. 

Who's Hot? Buster Posey is on an absolute tear over the past 30 days, leading the league in batting average at .402, second in on base percentage at .427, and second in slugging percentage at .647 as he makes a bid for a second MVP award in three years. Left fielder Gregor Blanco has a .300/.382/.544 slash line filling in for the injured Mike Morse, and his outfield mates Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are, coincidentally, also hitting exactly .300 over the past 30 days. Shortstop Brandon Crawford has emerged from a seasonlong slump--his slash line was .225/.313/.362 at the end of August--to hit .342/.376/.468 over the past 30 days. 

The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw has sewn up the Cy Young award and, possibly the MVP as well, but the Giants' Madison Bumgarner will get some downballot Cy Young votes, as he's tied for third in wins and is fourth in innings pitched and strikeouts. Over the past 30 days, he's 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, but that's been only second best on the club, as Jake Peavy, who joined the club via a July 26 trade with the Red Sox, is 4-1 with 0.79 ERA. 

Who's Not? No GIants reliever has pitched ten innings over the past 30 days, as manager Bruce Bochy has scrounged around looking for somebody who's good. Setup man Sergio Romo has a 2.70 ERA and closer Santiago Casilla's at 3.38, but Tim Lincecum, Jean Machi, and Jeremy Affeldt have combined for an 8.20 ERA over 20 innings. Starter Tim Hudson has collapsed following a strong first half (2.78 ERA at the All-Star break), as he's compiled a 7.03 ERA over his past five starts, and made it out of the fifth inning in his starts only three times since the end of July. Ryan Vogelsong's been bad too, with a 4.93 ERA over six starts, during which he's walked nearly 12% of the batters he's faced. 

Left fielder Morse has managed only 33 plate appearances over the past 30 days, batting just .214 with no home runs as he's battled an oblique injury that looks likely to shut him down for the rest of the year. While you can't complain about the performance of Blanco, Pagan, and Pence, Morse is the team's most dangerous power hitter. Another good hitter, first baseman Brandon Belt, has had a lost, injury-marred year, but at least he's back playing.

What's the Outlook? The Giants, having been swept by the Padres over the weekend, have probably played themselves out of contention for the National League West, though they seem solid for the wild card. As I noted in my Pirates comment, I like their chances against the Bucs, to the degree that one can predict the winner of a single game. The winner, though, moves on to what's likely to be the Nationals, a team with few if any notable weaknesses that's playing the best baseball among National League contenders of late. It's going to be tough to keep the Giants' streak of world championships in even-numbered years in this decade going. 

What's Going On With: The San Francisco Giants

This is Part 4 of a six-part series looking at the three worst and three best teams in baseball to date, and figuring out why they've done what they've done and whether they'll keep on doing it. Having wrapped up the teams with the worst records (here are the links to the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Arizona Diamondbacks), we'll move on the winners. Here's the team with the third-best record, the San Francisco Giants.

How Good Have They Been? The Giants are 20-11, a .633 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 105-57. There's been a lot of movement among the top teams in baseball, with teams slipping in and out of the top spots. The Giants make it on the strength of a five-game winning streak and nine wins in their last ten games.

How Much of a Surprise is This? Playing in the same division as the high-payroll, star-studded Dodgers, there weren't a lot of people picking the Giants for first. Most had them improving from last year's 76-86, which tied them with the Padres for third in the NL West. Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and ESPN projected 85-88 wins. This is a team that was supposed to have been decent, playing great so far.

What's Been Right? The offense is scoring 4.16 runs per game, sixth in the National League, with a lot of power. Isolated Slugging is slugging average minus batting average--it measures how many extra bases a batter gets per base hit. San Francisco's isolated slugging is .173, second in the National League, as the team's hit the second-most homers in the league. Brandon Belt, Mike Morse, and Buster Posey are among league leaders. All told, considering their tough home park, the Giants have probably been the second- or third-best offense in the league, after Colorado.

The Giants' 2.99 ERA is second in the league, but adjusted for AT&T Park, it's been just a bit above average. The bullpen's been the strength, as the starters' 3.58 ERA is about average. Giants relievers have a ridiculous 1.86 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, enabling the Giants to come from behind to win 5 of the 14 games they've trailed after four innings.

Has Luck Been Involved? Please refer here for a discussion of the terms used below, and why I chose them.

Several factors--record in one-run games, batting average on balls in play, percentage of fly balls leaving the park--suggest that San Francisco hasn't been particularly lucky. But here's a warning sign: Giants pitchers have allowed a .194 batting average with runners in scoring position, lowest in the NL, and way below the league average of .237. That's not likely to be sustained. The Giants seem pretty likely to give up more runs going forward, all things being equal.

What's The Outlook? The Giants are having a nice comeback season from a disappointing 2013. There's nothing in the numbers to suggest they can't continue to be a decent team, in contention for the postseason (Baseball Prospectus gives them a 77% chance of getting there), though the reliever ERA and batting average against with runners in scoring position indicates that some of their pitchers have been playing over their heads so far.