Enough Already

On Tuesday, the Pirates destroyed the Diamondbacks, 12-1. But the game featured some serious ugliness towards the end. In the top of the seventh, the Pirates were leading 9-1. Arquimedes Caminero, who's exhibited only passing knowledge of the strike zone so far this year (13 walks, three hit batters, and a wild pitch in 17.1 innings), came on for the Bucs. He got center fielder Chris Owings to ground out but then gave up back-to-back singles to shortstop Nick Ahmed and Jake Lamb. Then, with runners on first and second and the count full, he hit second baseman Jean Segura in the head with a 96 mph fastball. 

In the bottom of the inning, Evan Marshall, who'd faced two batters in the sixth, gave up singles to second baseman Josh Harrison and shortstop Jordy Mercer. Catcher Chris Stewart grounded out, with the runners advancing to second and third. Marshall's first pitch to third baseman David Freese, a 95 mph fastball, hit him, either on the shoulder (Pirates broadcast) or grazing his uniform (Diamondbacks broadcast).

In the top of the eighth, Caminero still on the mound, catcher Wellington Castillo walked, left fielder Yasmany Tomas struck out, pinch hitter Chris Herrmann forced Castillo, and then Owings singled. With runners on first and third and the count 1-2, Caminero hit Ahmed in the head with an 89 mph split-fingered fastball.

A notes about this: First, this occurred the day after Pirates pitcher Ryan Vogelsong was hit in the head with a 92 mph fastball thrown by Colorado's Jordan Lyles. Vogelsong's now on the disabled list with broken facial bones. So it's not like nobody was aware of the risks here. 

Second, it's pretty clear that Caminero didn't intend to hit Segura or Ahmed, and certainly not in the head. It's not so clear about Marshall, who has a history if ill-advised retaliation. 

Third, it's fortunate that Segura and Ahmed are both OK..

Fourth, I was glad that neither the Pirates nor the Diamondbacks TV announcers talked about "protection" or any other Book of Exodus eye-for-an-eye nonsense. Nobody was making excuses for this sort of thing.

All that being said...Enough already. Pirates pitchers have hit opposing hitters 19 times this season, the fourth most in the league. Pirates batters have been hit 31 times, the most in the league. Last year, they hit the most batters (75) and were hit the most (89). In 2014, they hit the most batters (88) and were hit the second most (78). In 2013, they hit the most batters (70) and were hit the most (88). From 2013 to 2016, they've hit 252 batters (15% more than any other National League team), and been hit 286 times (20% more than any other NL team).

As I've pointed out (here and here), some of this may be retaliation for prior hit batters, but a lot, maybe most of it, isn't. But that doesn't make it OK.

Look, I get it. Hit batters are part of the game. Sometimes a pitch gets away from the pitcher. Some batters stand really close to the plate. Pitchers need to be able to pitch inside as well outside, and sometimes they miss. That's all understandable and forgivable. 

What isn't understandable and forgivable to me is intentionally hitting a batter with a pitch. If I intentionally throw a hard object at high speed and hit you, it's criminal battery. Hard contact is part of the game if you're playing football or hockey, and the players dress appropriately. It's not supposed to be part of the game of baseball. Throwing at a batter because he flipped his bat or slid hard or because his team's pitcher hit a batter on the other team isn't just dumb moral equivalence, it's dangerous. Baseball can wait until a player gets killed, or suffers a traumatic brain injury, or is otherwise never able to play again because he's hit by a pitch. (I'd say "or suffers permanently decreased performance" but that's already happened.) Or it can do something now.

First thought: Immediately eject any pitcher whose pitch hits a batter in the head. I think Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale had it right when he said after the game against Pittsburgh, "You know what, when guys get hit in the head and they get hit in the face, there's no place for that in the game. And if the guy is not trying to do it, then he shouldn't be here at this level." I know some have called for ejecting any pitcher who hits a batter, but that could lead to batters leaning in, getting grazed by the pitch, in order to get an ace pitcher out of the game. Nobody's going to lean in with his chin. 

Second thought: Give umpires more latitude to eject pitchers who throw at batters. Granted, a lot of hit batters are in a gray area. But some aren't, like the Pirates-Reds HBPfest on May 11, in which a Red hit a Pirate, then a Pirate hit a Red, then a Red hit a Pirate, it happened again, then a Pirate hit a Red and a Red hit a Pirate. 

Some people will say that that's the way the game's governed itself for over a century and it shouldn't change. Sorry, not buying it. The average fastball velocity so far this year is 92.3 mph; that can do a lot more damage than fastballs of Ty Cobb's and Babe Ruth's and Joe DiMaggio's eras, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Besides, the game went for decades with no nonwhite players on the field. That wasn't a good idea. Until 2014, baseball didn't bother enforcing the interference rule, prohibiting fielders from blocking the baserunner's path the base, at home plate. That wasn't a good idea either. If governing itself means that Ryan Vogelsong gets bones broken in his face one day and has Jean Segura getting tested for a concussion the next, I'd say it's a pretty pathetic job of self-governance. Roll back the historically high trend of hit batters now, baseball, before you have to, with regrets.

Next Up: The San Francisco Giants

The Pirates swept three games against the Giants in June. They'll try to keep beating up on the National League West (16-3 so far this season) with four against the Giants starting tonight in PNC Park.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Giants are 16-11 over the past 30 days, tying with the Mets for the fourth best record in the National League. (The Pirates are third at 17-9. Exasperatingly, the Cardinals are first and the Cubs second.) The Giants have scored 4.70 runs per game, fifth most in the league, and allowed 3.30, tied with the Mets for the second fewest. Their run differential is second to the Mets', and is suggestive of a team with a better record than the 16-11. The Giants start play today two games behind the Dodgers in the West and three behind the Cubs for the second wild card.

What's Going Right? The Giants' starting pitching, a problem much of the season, has been better of late, and the club's 3.49 starters ERA is third best in the league over the past 30 days. They've allowed the fourth fewest home runs in the league over the period despite getting fewer ground balls than any other team. The bullpen's 2.51 ERA is third best in the league over the past 30 days, and they've been the second-stingiest relief corps at allowing walks, but the .237 batting average the relievers have allowed on balls in play is probably not sustainable. On offense, the Giants are fourth in batting (.265), fifth in on base percentage (.323), and fifth in slugging (.429) over the past 30 days. They've been the third-hardest team to fan and have an excellent 21-4 record on steal attempts.

What's Going Wrong? The National League Central, that's what. The Giants are 9-11 against the Pirates' division this year. Within the last 30 days, they've taken two of three from Milwaukee but lost four straight to the Cubs and two of three to the Cardinals.

Who's Hot? The Giants have gotten power from shortstop Brandon Crawford (seven homers, 20 RBI, .313/.346/.625 slash line) and first baseman Brandon Belt (eight homers, 22 RBI, .273/.360/.545); high averages from catcher Buster Posey (.340/.373/.468) and rookie third baseman Matt Duffy (.321/.347/.473), and speed from outfielder Gregor Blanco (7 stolen bases, 18 runs) over the past 30 days. World Series hero Madison Bumgarner has a 2.06 ERA and a 4-1 record over the past 30 days, with 50 strikeouts and only three walks over 39.1 innings pitched. He'll start Friday. Ryan Vogelsong, who'd been demoted to the bullpen as he struggled earlier this season, has a 2.40 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 15 innings over his past three starts, and could start Sunday. (The Giants haven't named their Sunday starter yet.) Setup man Sergio Romo has been dominant over the last 30 days, with a save and six holds. He's allowed five hits, one walk, no runs, and has struck out 17.

Who's Not? The Giants' entire outfield--left fielder Nori Aoki, center fielder Angel Pagan, and right fielder Hunter Pence--is on the disabled list. (Aoki's back today.) One of the fill-ins, Justin Maxwell, is batting .189 with a .216 slugging percentage over the last 30 days. Injured second baseman Joe Panik's replacement, Ehire Adrianza, is batting .205 with a .273 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. Closer Santiago Casilla has been wobbly, with a 6.43 ERA over the last 30 days.

What's the Outlook? While the Giants are banged up, the Pirates could get third baseman Josh Harrison and shortstop Jordy Mercer back during the Giants series. Despite their injuries, the Giants have played well. Tonight's game is the Pirates' tenth in a span of 20 straight days with no time off. Adding the two veterans could give others on the roster a breather.

The World Series: Something's Gotta--Well, Probably's Gonna--Break

Well, it's the first all-Wild Card World Series since 2002, when the Giants fell to the Angels in seven games, in a series that features four one-run games (Games One, Two, Four, and Six), two blowouts (Angels 10, Giants 4 in Game Three; Giants 16, Angels 4 in Game Five), and the emergence of a bullpen star, Anaheim's Francisco Rodriguez, who racked up 13 strikeouts in 8.2 innings, which is three more innings than he pitched in the regular season. 

One of the reasons I've been wrong in almost all of my postseason predictions (I did guess that the Orioles would beat the Tigers) is that neither of this team's finalists, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, have played true to form:

• The Royals scored 4.02 runs per game in the regular season, below the AL average of 4.18. The league leader was the Angels, with 4.77. In the postseason, when the quality of pitching is above-average, the Royals have scored 5.75 runs per game, about a run per game more than the best-scoring team in the league during the regular season. And, as I've pointed out, they've done it not with speed, but with the homers, walks, and strikeouts that they avoided during the regular season.
• San Francisco's best starter, Madison Bumgarner, is unimpeachable. But the No. 2 starter, Jake Peavy, had a 4.72 ERA with Boston before joining the Giants via a trade in late July. He had a 2.17 regular season ERA with the Giants and a 1.86 postseason ERA. The No. 3 starter, Tim Hudson, had an 8.72 ERA over five starts in September and a 3.29 ERA in the postseason. The No. 4 starter, Ryan Vogelsong, was almost as bad as Hudson in September (5.53 ERA) and had a strong start against the Nationals (5.2 innings, four baserunners, one run) before a weak one (four runs allowed in three innings) in a game the Giants won anyway. That four-man rotation has put Yusmeiro Petit in the bullpen, where he's allowed two hits and no runs over nine innings. He had a 4.40 ERA in September.

One of these trends will break down. Either the Royals will stop hitting so well, or the Giants starters after Bumgarner will stop pitching so well. They can't both continue like this.

Both teams have strong bullpens. The Royals, as I noted in my Championship Series preview, had the best record in the American League in games they led after six innings, 65-4. That, of course, is attributable to Kelvin Herrera (usually their seventh inning reliever, 1.41 ERA), Wade Davis (eighth inning, 1.00 ERA), and Greg Holland (ninth inning, 1.44 ERA). But the Giants weren't slouches either, going 62-6 in games they led after six, fourth-best in the National League and sixth-best in the majors.* But these teams were also among the most successful at coming back from deficits after six innings: the Giants were fifth-best in the majors (13-60) and the Royals seventh-best (11-58) in games they trailed going into the seventh inning.** Still, the Royals' trio has combined for a 1.05 ERA in the postseason, giving the Royals, in my mind, an edge in games that they lead.

The question is whether they'll get there. Given my initial premise--that the clock's going to strike midnight for either the Royals' offense or the Giants' rotation--I'm more skeptical of Kansas City, which ranked last in the majors in walks and homers in the regular season. I've made it clear that I'm biased in favor of small-market low-payroll teams, and the Royals' $89.3 million payroll (17th in the majors) is almost 40% lower than the Giants' $145.1 million (sixth). But if I had to make a guess, I'd expect the Royals to wind up on the short end of a low-scoring World Series. 

*Top six won-lost records in games leading after six innings: Padres (!) 60-1 (!!), Royals 65-4, Nationals 72-6, Dodgers 81-7, Twins 52-5, Giants 62-6.

**The Nationals were 14-54 in games they trailed after six innings, the only team to win over 20% of such games. But the bottom of the list is more interesting. The Braves were trailing 63 games after six innings, and came back to win only three--a winning percentage of less than 5%. And the Dodgers were even worse, going 2-54 in games they trailed after six. Dodgers fans have a reputation for leaving games early to beat the traffic, and in 2014, it seems, they were justified, as the team went on the win 92% of the games they led after six while losing 96% of games they trailed after six. 

Flyover: San Francisco Giants

This continues a series of looks at teams over the past month. Got the Dodgers yesterday, so let's check in on the San Francisco Giants today.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Giants have been just OK over the past 30 days, going 15-12. They've lost a game and a half to the first-place Dodgers and three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, with whom they're now tied. Since the Pirates took the season series between the clubs, 4-2, a wild card tie would mean the Giants would have to travel to PNC Park for a one-game play-in. Over the past 30 days, the Giants are third in the league in scoring, 4.7 runs per game, but fourth-to-last in run prevention, giving up 4.5 runs per game. 

What's Going Right? They'be been good at getting on base (.284 batting average, .336 on base percentage, both second in the league) over the past 30 days. Their .421 slugging percentage is fifth, as they've hit only 20 homers, which is tenth in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play is .330 compared to a league average of .303, suggesting that their batting average and on base percentage have been a little lucky, but only 7.5% of their fly balls have gone over the fence compared to a league average of 9.6%, suggesting that their slugging percentage and home run totals have been a little unlucky. The Giants have been the toughest team in the NL to fan, striking out in only 17% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 21%. They've had problems with their bullpen, as I'll explain below, but the starters have been best in the league at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (33%), they've struck out the most batters (23% of batters), and walked the fourth fewest (6%).

What's Going Wrong? The team ERA of 4.10 over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league. The starters have been mediocre (3.58 ERA, eighth in the league) but the relievers have been awful, with a league-worst 5.25 ERA. The relievers haven't allowed an unusually batting average on balls in play, one of the key factors indicating that they've been unlucky. They've just been bad. 

Who's Hot? Buster Posey is on an absolute tear over the past 30 days, leading the league in batting average at .402, second in on base percentage at .427, and second in slugging percentage at .647 as he makes a bid for a second MVP award in three years. Left fielder Gregor Blanco has a .300/.382/.544 slash line filling in for the injured Mike Morse, and his outfield mates Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are, coincidentally, also hitting exactly .300 over the past 30 days. Shortstop Brandon Crawford has emerged from a seasonlong slump--his slash line was .225/.313/.362 at the end of August--to hit .342/.376/.468 over the past 30 days. 

The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw has sewn up the Cy Young award and, possibly the MVP as well, but the Giants' Madison Bumgarner will get some downballot Cy Young votes, as he's tied for third in wins and is fourth in innings pitched and strikeouts. Over the past 30 days, he's 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, but that's been only second best on the club, as Jake Peavy, who joined the club via a July 26 trade with the Red Sox, is 4-1 with 0.79 ERA. 

Who's Not? No GIants reliever has pitched ten innings over the past 30 days, as manager Bruce Bochy has scrounged around looking for somebody who's good. Setup man Sergio Romo has a 2.70 ERA and closer Santiago Casilla's at 3.38, but Tim Lincecum, Jean Machi, and Jeremy Affeldt have combined for an 8.20 ERA over 20 innings. Starter Tim Hudson has collapsed following a strong first half (2.78 ERA at the All-Star break), as he's compiled a 7.03 ERA over his past five starts, and made it out of the fifth inning in his starts only three times since the end of July. Ryan Vogelsong's been bad too, with a 4.93 ERA over six starts, during which he's walked nearly 12% of the batters he's faced. 

Left fielder Morse has managed only 33 plate appearances over the past 30 days, batting just .214 with no home runs as he's battled an oblique injury that looks likely to shut him down for the rest of the year. While you can't complain about the performance of Blanco, Pagan, and Pence, Morse is the team's most dangerous power hitter. Another good hitter, first baseman Brandon Belt, has had a lost, injury-marred year, but at least he's back playing.

What's the Outlook? The Giants, having been swept by the Padres over the weekend, have probably played themselves out of contention for the National League West, though they seem solid for the wild card. As I noted in my Pirates comment, I like their chances against the Bucs, to the degree that one can predict the winner of a single game. The winner, though, moves on to what's likely to be the Nationals, a team with few if any notable weaknesses that's playing the best baseball among National League contenders of late. It's going to be tough to keep the Giants' streak of world championships in even-numbered years in this decade going.