Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Next Up: The 1927 New York Yankees

OK, not really. But the 2015 Cincinnati Reds have played the Pirates as if they were the 1927 Yankees. They're 9-4 against the Pirates, outscoring them 64-45. Against the Reds this year, the Pirates:

• Were swept in Cincinnati in the season's first three games.
• Dropped two of three at home in May.
• Did it again in June. 
• Split four games in Cincinnati a little over a month ago.

As I pointed out last week, among National League Central teams, the Pirates have had the most success against the Cardinals, who have the best record in baseball. They're now 8-8 against the Redbirds. They've had the most problems with the Reds, who currently have the fourth-worst record in the majors. In fact, if you take away the Reds' games with the Pirates, Cincinnati's record would drop to 47-75, a .385 winning percentage that would be the worst to date.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 8-20 over the past 30 days, a record that would be the worst in the National League were it not for the almost unfathomably bad Atlanta Braves, who are 4-23. The Reds haven't really played as badly as their record would suggest, though. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, eighth in the league, and given up 5.0 per game, the fourth most. That's not a great record, but it's more indicative of a 12-16 team than one that's 8-20.

What's Going Right? The Reds' bullpen has a 3.23 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the National League, though with the second lowest strikeout rate and sixth highest walk rate in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's compiled that spiffy ERA despite pitching 103 innings over the past 30 days, the second highest total in the National League. That's a reflection of how bad the Reds' all-rookie starting pitching has been: 6.01 ERA, second-lowest rate of ground balls induced, highest rate of fly balls going over the fence. The offense has been nothing special: twelfth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage.

Who's Hot? Reds fans haven't had a lot to cheer for, but first baseman Joey Votto's been one of them. He's having a historically great second half, and over the past 30 days, he's tied for second in the league in batting average (.356), is second in slugging percentage (.700), and leads the league in on base percentage (.536). The team's also gotten good offensive performances from second baseman Brandon Phillips (.349/.395/.500 slash line) and shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.274/.325/.519). Raisel Iglesias, Tuesday night's starter, has been one of the league's best pitchers over the past 30 days: 2.38 ERA, 44 strikeouts and just 26 hits and walks over 34 innings. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual self: five saves, 16 strikeouts over his last 9.2 innings, but setup man J.J. Hoover, despite a 3.09 ERA and five holds, has played with fire, with eight unintentional walks and three homers in 11.2 innings.

Who's Not? Right fielder Jay Bruce has been the anti-Votto: .202/.242/.399 since the All-Star break, .168/.204/.318 over the past 30 days. With center fielder Billy Hamilton disabled and former left fielder Marlon Byrd traded, the Reds have struggled to get production from their outfield. Outside of Iglesias, the Reds' other rookie starters have combined for a 7.11 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The series with the Reds gives the Pirates a chance to pick up ground on their two National League Central foes, the Cardinals and Cubs, who'll battle each other over three games at Wrigley Field. But for that to happen, the Pirates will have to figure out how to beat one of the worst teams in baseball. They haven't been able to so far this year.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

No team's given the Pirates more trouble this year than the Reds. The Reds are 44-54, in fourth place in the National League Central, but they've racked up a 7-2 record to date against the Bucs. The Pirates were 1-5 in their first six games after the All-Star break and have gone 5-1 in the six games since. They will try to push their overall post-break record above .500 over four games in Cincinnati starting tonight.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've thrown in the towel on 2015, trading their ace starter and pending free agent Johnny Cueto to Kansas City. By the time Sunday's game rolls around, the Reds' scheduled starting pitcher, Mike Leake, could be gone as well. Right fielder Jay Bruce has been discussed as a potential trade chip too. The Reds haven't played well, with ten wins over the last 30 days, tied with the Braves and Rockies for the fewest in the league, though the Braves have one more loss (15) than the Reds (14). They've scored 3.5 runs per game, tied for the sixth fewest in the league, while allowing 5.00, the second most. As such, they've been a little lucky to have gone 10-14; a team with that sort of run differential is more likely to go 8-16 or so.

What's Going Right? The offense has been...well, not particularly good, but not really bad, either. Over the last 30 days, they're eighth in batting average and slugging percentage and ninth in on base percentage in the 15-team National League. They've been the second toughest team in the league to strike out and they're sixth in home runs. While they've swung at an above-average percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, their low strikeout rate is illustrative of their ability to make contact, as they have the third-highest contact rate on swings in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have a 4.19 ERA over the past 30 days, third worst in the league, as a way-too-high 28% of baserunners allowed have scored, also third worst. The relievers have been worse, with a cover-your-eyes 5.88 ERA, second worst in the league, and they've earned it more than the starters, with the lowest strikeout rate AND the highest walk rate in the league over the past 30 days. 

Who's Hot? First baseman Joey Votto has been on fire: .386/.514/.639 slash line over the last 30 days, .523/.644/.886 since the All-Star break. I typed all of that correctly: He's gotten on base more than half the time over the last 30 days, and he's gotten hits in over half of his at bats since the break. Bruce has been sensational, too, .303/.347/.596 over the last 30 days. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual dominating self: six saves in ten games over the last 30 days, 18 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, batters whiffing on 39% of their swings against him. (League average is 23%.) Cueto had a 1.59 ERA over five starts in the past 30 days, but he's gone. Leake' ERA over the same period is better, 1.25, but he might get traded too. In fact, the only person in this paragraph who's not been mentioned in trade rumors is Votto, and that's because he's owed $192 million over the next eight years.

Who's Not? I mentioned Cueto, Leake, and Chapman above. Over the last 30 days, the rest of the Reds' pitching staff has a combined ERA of 6.80. On offense, second baseman Brandon Phillips is hitting .223/.270/.266 over the past 30 days, catcher Brayan Pena .185/.228/.185. They have a total of four extra-base hits (all doubles by Phillips) over 148 at-bats between them. All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier's hit .215/.248/.376 over the period, though the Pirates have been his personal slump-buster this season, as he's hitting .359/.419/.846 with five homers, ten RBI, and ten runs scored in nine games against Pittsburgh this year. 

What's the Outlook? Their 2-7 record against Cincinnati so far this year notwithstanding, the Pirates are facing a diminished Reds team from the one they faced earlier in the season, and they could become more diminished by tomorrow's trade deadline. The Pirates' rejuvinated offense (38 runs in the past six games) will face rookie David Holmberg (making his 2015 debut; he had a 4.50 ERA over four starts in 2014), rookie Michael Lorenzen (8.83 ERA over his last four starts), rookie Raisel Iglesias (6.19) and, if he's still with the club, Leake over the four game series. That makes for good prospects for improving on 2-7.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

After an off day, the Pirates will try to get back on track after the weekend's shellacking on the hands of the Washington Nationals (three losses by a combined score of 19-3). They open a three game series tonight against the Reds, against whom they're only 1-5 so far this year.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 14-12 over the past 30 days, which isn't fabulous, but it ties them with the Cubs for the third-best record in the National League during the period, trailing only the 19-8 Pirates and 18-8 Cardinals. Yes, the four best teams in the National League over the past 30 days are all in the Central division. They've scored 4.5 runs per game over the past 30 games, second in the league, and allowed 3.8 per game, fourth fewest. So they've been pretty good. Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face their longtime nemesis, Johnny Cueto, whose elbow is bothering him. He was scheduled to start tonight's game but he'll rest until Friday. The Pirates will instead face Josh Smith, in his first major league start. That might sound promising, but the Pirates faced the Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann in the Brewer's first start, and lost 4-1, as the rookie allowed one run over seven innings.

What's Going Right? Well, when you're second in runs scored and fourth in runs prevented, a lot of stuff's going right. They're only ninth in batting over the past 30 days but sixth in on base percentage and second in slugging. They've hit the second most homers and drawn the fifth most walks. They have the sixth-best starters' ERA and the sixth-best relievers' ERA over the span. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's blown five saves, the second-most in the National League over the past 30 days. And the Cueto injury is worrisome. He's the team's best pitcher and most valuable trade chip--more on that in a sec--but he started only 24 games in 2011 and 11 in 2013 due to health issues. The Reds are hoping he holds up in this odd-numbered year.

The Reds also face a fish-or-cut-bait issue. They're 32-36, fourth in the Central, 12.5 games behind the Cardinals and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card, tied with the Padres, with four other teams between them and Chicago. One of their best starters, Homer Bailey, is out until sometime next season with Tommy John surgery. Do they keep pushing for the postseason this year, or do they see what they can get for Cueto in a trade? Do they try to trade closer Aroldis Chapman, who's arbitration eligible next year? These questions won't get answered in the three games with the Pirates, but they hang over the club.

Who's Hot? Third baseman Todd Frazier's been on fire: .339/.368/.761 slash line over the last 30 days, first in runs scored, second in homers, tied for second in RBI. First baseman Joey Votto's been really good too, at .308/.427/.637. Frazier's first in the league in slugging, Votto's fourth in on base percentage. Center fielder Billy Hamilton has struggled to get on base (.289 on base percentage in the past 30 days), but he's put pressure on pitchers when he gets on, leading the majors with 14 steals. Every starter--Cueto, Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen--has been OK, though the latter two get an unusually small number of strikeouts. In the bullpen, Chapman's out on paternity leave, so the closer role will shift to J.J. Hoover. Chapman, as usual, has struck out a ridiculous number of batters--43% of the batters he's faced over the past 30 days. compared to a league average of 22%--while Hoover, who's allowed no runs in his last 13.1 innings, has struck out a below-average 14% of batters.

Who's Not? Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.226/.258/.298 over the past 30 days) is showing his age, but the only other Reds batters with poor results of late are part-timers. He's neither hot nor cold at the major league level, but tonight's starter, Smith, is a 27-year-old rookie, and 27 is pretty old to be breaking into the majors. 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are facing a Reds team that's played well lately. The big question, to me, will be whether the Pirates pitchers can cool off the Reds' hot bats, especially Frazier's (four homers in six games against Pittsburgh). 

Flyover: Cincinnati Reds

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs last year as a wild card (eliminated in the coin flip game by the Pirates) and were picked by some to win the division this year. No such luck. With star first baseman Joey Votto injured most of the year, second baseman Brandon Phillips having his worst season as a Red and looking old at 33, and right fielder Jay Bruce having the worst year of his career, the Reds are scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the National League, betraying a pitching staff that has a better-than-average 3.57 ERA. The only above-average hitters have been third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Rookie center fielder/speedster Billy Hamilton has been OK with the bat and better than expected in the field, but he has somehow manged to steal only 72% of the bases he's attempted to swipe, exactly equal to the league average. Fastest player in baseball, maybe ever, and he's only an average base stealer. At least the team's other speedster, flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman, has been ridiculous: 87 strikeouts in 44.1 innings, striking out 52% of the batter's he's faced (nobody's close), only pitcher with an average fastball velocity in excess of 100 mph. The Reds have fourth place in the NL Central pretty much locked in.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds have the worst record in the National League, 9-18, over the last 30 days. The pitching's been bad, especially the bullpen, and the offense has been terrible. Well, it's not like they're playing for the postseason.

What's Going Right? Um. Well. They lead the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days. The pitchers are second in strikeouts. I'm behind writing these or I'd dig up something else. Nothing jumps out. The team has been pretty bad lately. Say this about the offense: the Reds are batting .259 on balls in play over the past 30 days. That's last in the league, by far, way below the league average of .301, suggesting that there's a large dollup of bad luck in their hitting numbers. Batting averages on balls in play don't generally don't persist at the extremes.

What's Going Wrong? This is a much longer list. They're last in batting average (.220), last in on base percentage (.280), second to last in slugging (.332) over the past 30 days. The pitchers are third in walk rate overall, and the relievers have walked 12% of the batters they've faced, by far the most in the league. Remember the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. About 48% of Reds relievers' pitchers are in the strike zone (throwing strikes), league average, but they're inducing swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (getting strikes), last in the league. 

Who's Hot? Over the past 30 days, the average National League hitter--this is the league where pitchers hit, remember--is batting .252 with a .314 on base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. There isn't a single Reds batter who's exceeded those figures. Mesoraco's led the team with a .348 on base percentage and a .432 slugging percentage, but as you can see, that's nothing all that special.

All-Star starter Johnny Cueto's been pretty good over the past 30 days, 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA, and starter Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with a 2-1 record. Other than strikeouts (18 in 9 innings), Chapman's had a just OK record (4.00 ERA). He and setup man Jumbo Diaz are the only relievers with nine or more innings pitched over the past month. 

Who's Not? Phillips has had a terrible time at the plate over the past 30 days, batting just .138 with a .194 on base percentage and a .172 slugging percentage. Bruce's slash line is .202/.242/.340 and he's struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Left fielder Ryan Ludwick's slash line is .179/.238/.321. 

What's the Outlook? This is the shortest if these team reports I've written. It's partly because there aren't very many Reds who have been exceptionally good or bad. But mostly, it's because this is an unexciting team. They're clearly playing out the string.

Sweet Play of the Day - May 19

Actually, three.

First, on the first pitch of the game, Nationals vs. Reds, Billy Hamilton at the plate.

Same game, extra innings, two gems by Brandon Phillips and Hamilton preserve the tie in a game the Reds won in 15.