A Wild Card Game of Inches

This postseason has had no shortage of stories: Utley's slide, Gibbons leaving in Cecil to pitch to Napoli, the Royals' singles vs. the Astros' homers, Price in long relief in a blowout, Molina's thumb...yet to Pirates fans, we're on the outside looking in. We're still stuck on Jake Arrieta's shutout last Wednesday in the wild card game. During last night's Cubs-Cardinals game, a lot of Pirates followers must've said, as my wife did, while watching Arrieta surrender four runs on five hits and two walks in five and two-thirds innings, "Why couldn't he have pitched that way against the Pirates?" After all, he was unhittable against the Bucs: Complete game shutout, five hits and no walks, eleven strikeouts. The Pirates didn't have a chance.

Except...they sort of did. This article by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is the best post-mortem I've read of the wild card game. It's not long, and it's a good read, but if you want to skip it, Cameron's point is that the Pirates did have a chance against Arrieta. In the sixth inning, Arrieta hit third baseman Josh Harrison. Sandwiched around Harrison's stroll to first, four Pirates batters absolutely smoked four batted balls. Each left their bats traveling over 100 miles per hour. Balls hit that hard are usually base hits, often for extra bases. But instead, the Pirates got:

• Pinch hitter Travis Snider, single
• Right fielder Gregory Polanco, lineout
• Center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reached on error, runners advanced one base
• Left fielder Starling Marte, grounded into double play

Now, this wasn't all bad luck on the Pirates' part. Every one of the batted balls was hit on the ground or on a line drive. None of them were hit in the air, where they would've had a good chance of landing in the outfield for extra bases, or over the fence, and that's due at least in part to Arrieta's skill as a pitcher. But other than Snider, every one of the Pirates' screaming hits went right to a Cubs infielder--Polanco to third baseman Kris Bryant, who made a juggling catch on the fly, and McCutchen and Marte to shortstop Addison Russell, who couldn't handle McCutchen's shot but turned Marte's into an inning-ending twin killing. Let's say those balls were hit just a couple inches to the left or right of where they were. Snider singles up the middle. Polanco's rocket goes down the left field line, resulting in a double, runners on second and third. Harrison's hit, loading the bases. McCutchen singles to center, runners advancing a base, and Marte does the same. Now it's a 4-2 game with one out and the bases loaded. Or maybe Harrison scores on Marte's single, making it 4-3. One out, Cervelli and Walker due up. It would've been a different ballgame, and it turned on a four balls that were nailed, going right into fielders' gloves, instead of just out of their reach. 

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Pirates have won six in a row, after having dropped four in a row (including three to the Cubs). Here's how the National League Central standings looked on the morning of September 19, before the Pirates embarked on their hot streak, taking two in Los Angeles from the Dodgers and four in Denver from the Rockies:

      St. Louis   92  55  ---
      Pittsburgh  87  60  5.0
      Chicago     86  61  6.0

And here's what a six-game winning streak buys you:

      St. Louis   97  56  ---
      Pittsburgh  93  60  4.0
      Chicago     89  63  7.5

Best record in baseball over the past week, and all it yields is one game against the division leader and one and a half over your nearest rival. The top of this division is just ridiculous.

How Are They Doing Lately? Continuing on that theme, over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 16-12 record, fifth best in the league, trailing the Cardinals (17-11) by a game and the Pirates (18-11) by a game and a half. That makes the Cubs a game short of joining the Cardinals and Pirates as playing .600-plus ball over the past 30 days. During that period, the Cubs have scored 4.8 runs per game, fourth in the league, while giving up 4.1 runs per game, the sixth fewest. The Pirates are one slot ahead of the Cubs in both categories, scoring 4.9 and giving up 4.0 per game. 

What's Going Right? Not a lot has changed since the teams met in Pittsburgh a week and a half ago. Cubs starting pitchers have the second best ERA in the league, 3.49, over the past 30 days, with the third highest strikeout rate, third lowest walk rate, fourth lowest rate of hard contact allowed, third highest rate of inducing swings outside the strike zone, and lowest rate of home runs allowed on fly balls. The bullpen's been less spectacular but still good: 3.49 ERA, sixth in the league, with the fourth highest strikeout rate and second highest rate of ground balls induced. At the plate, the Cubs are fair at getting on base (their .253 batting average over the last 30 days is tenth in the league and their .329 on base percentage is seventh) but they've got power. Their .428 slugging percentage is third in the league, powered by the most doubles and third most homers in the league over the past 30 days. That gives them a .175 isolated slugging average (slugging percentage minus batting average, measuring pure power), second only to the Mets.

What's Going Wrong? Two pitching measures that tend to regress toward the mean are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners left stranded. A team that's unusually good has probably been a little lucky, and a team that's unusually bad has probably been a little unlucky. The Cubs bullpen has the third-lowest batting average on balls in play and the fourth-highest strand rate in the league over the past 30 days, which suggests they haven't been as good as they've seemed. The Cubs hitters present a particular challenge for the Pirates pitching staff because the Cubs generate a lot of fly balls--their ratio of ground balls to fly balls is the third lowest in the league over the past 30 days--while the Pirates pitchers, as you probably know, rely on grounders, with the second highest ground ball/fly ball ratio in the league over the same period. Just as with lefty/righty platoons, fly ball hitters tend to do well against ground ball pitchers, and vice-versa. So the fly ball-happy Cubs batters could pose problems for the grounder-focused Pirates hurlers. On the other hand, the Pirates, somewhat contrary to their pitch-to-contact reputation, generate a fair number of strikeouts, with the fifth-highest K rate in the league over the past 30 days, and the Cubs are free swingers, with the second-highest strikeout rate and highest rate of whiffs on swings (26%) over the past 30 days. If the Pirates pitchers succeed, it may be less by generating ground balls and more by generating strike three against the whiff-prone Cubs.

Who's Hot? Jake Arrieta is the Pirates' main impediment to advancing in the postseason. He's the logical candidate to start a wild card play-in game against the Pirates, and he seems unstoppable. Over the past 30 days, the majors' first 20 game winner has a 0.43 ERA. He's allowed a .182 batting average on balls in play and he's stranded 93% of the runners who've gotten on base, which indicates a little luck, but you need good luck hitting against him: 42 strikeouts, 24 hits plus walks over his last 42 innings. He starts Sunday night's ESPN game. Kris Bryant, solidifying his Rookie of the Year credentials, has a .330 batting average, .377 on base percentage, and .585 slugging percentage over the past 30 days, though he's struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. His 23 RBI over the period tie him for third in the league. Starlin Castro, who has emerged as the team's top second baseman, has put up even better numbers, .386/.413/.643, albeit in more limited play. Corner outfielder Chris Coghlan (aka the guy whose takeout slide seriously injured the Pirates' Rookie of the Year contender and best second-half player, Jung Ho Kang) has a .375 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo's is .361. 

Who's Not? Tomorrow afternoon's starter, Jason Hammel, may be pitching himself into the Cubs' bullpen during the postseason; he has a 6.20 ERA over the past 30 days and hasn't allowed fewer than three runs in a start in over a month. Rookie shortstop Addison Russell flashes impressive leather but is hitting just .181 with a .258 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and rookie left fielder Kyle Schwarber has a .176 batting average and .291 on base percentage over the same period. Schwarber's whiffed in nearly a third of his plate appearances, Russell almost 37% of his. 

What's the Outlook? The last Cubs series was a disaster for the Pirates, losing three straight after winning the first game, culminated by the season-ending (and, very possibly, 2016 season-delaying) injury to Kang. And those games were in Pittsburgh. Now they travel to Chicago after playing yesterday afternoon in the Mountain time zone (the Cubs had the day off) for two afternoon games followed by a Sunday night game. The latter game means they'll be wrapping up their Sunday six hours later than the Cardinals, who'll be at PNC for three do-or-die games starting Monday. So there are all sorts of ways for the Pirates' internal clocks to get messed up, relative to those of the Cubs and Cardinals. Plus, we'll find out, as some have posited, whether four games in the altitude of Coors Field screws up hitters' swings and timing. (One guy whose swing probably won't be affected: Andrew McCutchen has hardly had a chance to swing, having walked 13 times in his last 21 plate appearances.) Taking two of three in Chicago--a necessity if the Pirates are going to have a shot at catching the Cardinals and getting reasonable distance between themselves and the Cubs in the battle for home field advantage in the wild card game--strikes me as a tall order.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

      St. Louis   89  54  ---
      Pittsburgh  86  45  2.5
      Chicago     82  60  6.5

All three teams are going to the postseason. According to FanGraphs, the odds of the Cardinals and Pirates reaching the postseason are 100%, and the Cubs are at 99.3%. (The National League is really boring this year; other than the Cards, Pirates, Cubs, Mets, and Dodgers, no team has even a 1% chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs.) But how they get there is still up in the air. By the end of play Thursday, the Cardinals, who open a three-game set against the Brewers tonight, could be in first or second. The Pirates, whose first of four games with the Cubs started shortly before I hit the "publish" key, could be in first, second, or tied for second with the Cubs. The Cubs could be in third or tied for second. The first place team will open a Divisional Series at home, in all likelihood. The second place team will host the third place team for a one-game wild-card play-in, then, after a day's rest, travel to a Divisional Series, most likely against the NL Central's first place team. Long and short of it, this could be a pretty important three weekdays in September for determining the postseason for the three NL Central teams.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-12 record, tying them with the Nationals for the fourth best record in the league after the Mets (20-7), Dodgers (17-9), and Pirates (18-10). They've scored 5.3 runs per game, fourth most in the league, one slot ahead of the Pirates at 4.7. They've allowed 4.8 runs per game, tying them with the Mets for the sixth most (or the ninth fewest); the Pirates, at 3.6 runs allowed per game, have given up the third fewest. 

What's Going Right? The team's tenth in batting average (.250) and ninth in on base percentage (.321) but they have the second highest slugging percentage in the league, .479, over the past 30 days. That's because they're second to the Mets in home runs and tied for second in triples. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in the Cubs lineup--they've struck out in 27% of their plate appearances over the past 30 days, easily the most in the league, and they have the lowest rate of contact on swings--but when they hit the ball, they hit it hard, with the third-highest rate of hard contact and the highest rate of fly balls becoming home runs. The starting pitchers' 3.89 ERA over the last 30 days is the fourth-best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and the second-lowest walk rate. However, as I'll discuss in the Who's Hot section, a lot of that has been one guy.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over. Cubs relievers have a 5.20 ERA over the past 30 days, the third highest in the league. Their strikeout and walk rates have been OK but they've allowed the third highest rate of home runs per nine innings in the league. There's been some bad luck mixed in--batting average on balls in play and baserunners stranded are driven to a degree by good fortune, and the Cubs bullpen's allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the lowest strand rate over the past 30 days--but the bullpen's clearly not as good as the starting rotation.

Who's Hot? Jake Arrieta, who'll start Wednesday night's game, has been pretty unhittable over the last 30 days: 0.24 ERA, 23 baserunners and 41 strikeouts over 37 innings. The reset of the rotation...not so much. Tuesday afternoon's starter, Jason Hammel, has been legitimately bad (6.04 ERA over the past 30 days, with six homers, nine walks, and 30 hits over 25.1 innings), and the other two starters, Jon Lester (Tuesday night) and Kyle Hendricks (Thursday afternoon) have ERAs north of 4.50. So the success of Cubs starters has been largely the work of Arrieta, though Hendricks and Lester have both been somewhat unlucky. Closer Hector Rondon has a 2.00 ERA, seven saves, and eleven strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days.

Kris Bryant, mired in a slump the last time the Pirates faced the Cubs, has been on fire, with a .324 batting average, .373 on base percentage, and .627 slugging percentage, with eight homers and 26 RBI over the past 30 days. Center fielder Dexter Fowler leads the club with a .393 on base percentage from the leadoff spot, along with a .546 slugging percentage. Corner outfielder Chris Coghlan has a .299/.386/.584 slash line, and Starlin Castro, who was the team's shortstop at the start of the year but now has been limited to part-time duty at second, is at .359/.369/.594.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been feast-or-famine over the past 30 days. Left fielder Kyle Schwarber has eight homers but a .174 batting average and .288 on base percentage over the past 30 days. First baseman Anthony Rizzo has six homers, a .198 batting average, and a .302 on base percentage. Shortstop Addison Russell also has six homers, but a .241 batting average and .281 on base percentage. So they've made outs when you can keep them in the park. As for the bullpen, As for the bullpen, no reliever with ten or more innings pitched has an ERA below 4.35. 

What's the Outlook? This should be a fun four games. Obviously, the goal here is to keep the Cubs hitters from leaving the yard, and getting to Chicago's bullpen. It's be great to make up more ground on the Cardinals, mired in a 3-9 slump, but splitting the four games may be all the Pirates can get.

ROY

This is a bumper year for rookies in the National League, right? Third baseman Maikel Franko's been a bright spot for a bad Phillies club. Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard has Citi Field fans wearing Thor outfits to his starts. Randal Grichuk has emerged a stalwart for the Cardinals, putting up the team's best hitting numbers while playing all three outfield positions. And, of course, the two shining stars have been Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson--both All-Stars, both Home Run Derby competitors. The National League Rookie of the Year award is a two-horse race between that duo.

That is SO June.

Here are Bryant and Pederson through June 30:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Kris Bryant	247	41	68	13	2	10	43	40	87	6	2	.275	.381	.466	.847	+2.7
Joc Pederson	262	45	64	12	1	20	38	55	94	2	5	.244	.384	.527	.911	+1.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

(WPA, as I explained in this article, is a measure of clutch hitting, reflecting the cumultative increase in expected winning percentage the player added on offense.)

And here they are since:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Kris Bryant	113	15	21	4	2	4	18	17	44	5	1	.186	.304	.363	.667	+0.6
Joc Pederson	103	8	27	6	0	1	5	11	36	0	1	.165	.265	.252	.517	-0.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Bryant has fallen off the table, while Pederson's been one of the worst hitters in the league. His .517 OPS since the end of June is worse than the full-year OPS of his teammate Zack Greinke (.531) who is, of course, a pitcher. The two young stars' declines has created a more wide-open National League Rookie of the Year race.

Here is a list of the leading National League rookie hitters with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, ranked by OPS+, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to 100 (i.e., 100 = league average):

Rk	Player	OPS+	Tm	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Randal Grichuk	146	STL	261	40	75	20	7	14	43	16	87	4	1	.287	.335	.579	.913	LF
2	Matt Duffy	129	SFG	352	48	109	20	4	9	51	16	63	5	0	.310	.348	.466	.814	3B
3	Maikel Franco	128	PHI	284	42	80	21	1	12	47	24	48	1	0	.282	.343	.489	.832	3B
4	Jung Ho Kang	126	PIT	293	40	86	17	2	8	35	21	66	5	3	.294	.366	.447	.813	3B/SS
5	Joc Pederson	122	LAD	365	53	81	18	1	21	43	66	130	2	6	.222	.352	.449	.802	CF
6	Kris Bryant	119	CHC	360	56	89	17	4	14	61	57	131	11	3	.247	.357	.433	.790	3B
7	Yasmany Tomas	106	ARI	312	32	93	17	2	6	39	14	81	5	2	.298	.331	.423	.754	RF/3B
8	Odubel Herrera	104	PHI	318	41	91	22	3	5	29	12	77	9	4	.286	.317	.421	.739	CF
9	Jorge Soler	98	CHC	297	30	80	18	1	5	34	24	99	3	1	.269	.326	.387	.713	RF
10	J.T. Realmuto	82	MIA	297	32	73	15	5	6	29	12	48	4	3	.246	.276	.391	.666	C

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Not so much a Bryant/Pederson duopoly anymore, is it? Of particular note to Pirates fans, consider Jung Ho Kang. The signing of the Korean Baseball Organization star was a head-scratcher, given that :

1. No batter has ever gone from the KBO to the majors. (There have been Korean-born major leaguers, but every hitter was drafted by an MLB team.)
2. His Playstation-like numbers from last year with the Nexen Heroes (.356/.459/.739 slash line, 40 homers and 117 runs batted in during 117 games played) were the product (by the league's admission) of a juiced ball. 
3. He was a shortstop in Korea, but the Pirates already had Jordy Mercer well-established there.
4. He has the arm to play third, but the Pirates had last year's breakout star, Josh Harrison, ensconced there. 

All told, his four-year, $10.75 million contract (with a $5.5 million team option for a fifth year), on top of the $5 million posting fee the Pirates paid to Nexen for the right to negotiate with Kang, seemed out of place for the low-budget Pirates. Where would he play? How likely was it that he could hit?

At this point, I think we can safely say three things about Kang:

1. He has absolutely been a lifesaver for the Pirates. He played a fair amount of shortstop early in the season, as Mercer struggled to get his batting average above .200. (He didn't get there until June.) Then he took over third when Harrison had thumb surgery on July 6. And when Mercer sprained his knee on July 19, Kang became the everyday shortstop.
2. He's been one of the Pirates' best players. Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus all rate him as the Pirates' second best position player (after Andrew McCutchen) in overall value.
3. As the table above indicates, he's a Rookie of the Year candidate. He's third in batting, first in on base percentage, and fifth in slugging among rookie hitters, all while playing a more important defensive position, and playing it well, than most.

If the season ended today, I'd expect Bryant to win Rookie of the Year. But the season isn't ending today. There's still time for the surprising Kang (check out the graphs in this article) to make up more ground.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Cubs haven't played the Pirates since the two teams met over ten dates in April and May, with the Cubs taking four. The last time they met was on May 17, at which time the Cubs were in second in the National League Central, while the Pirates were 18-20, tied with the Reds for third. Since that date, the Pirates have the best record in baseball, 43-23, while the Cubs are tied for sixth best, 36-31. So they've both played well, though the Pirates have played better. Entering play today, the Pirates are in line to be the National League's first wild card team. The Cubs, who've won five straight, are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild card, four behind the Pirates. It's not exactly the pennant drive, but the three games starting tonight at PNC Park could have post-season consequences.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-11 record, which is an unimpressive-sounding seventh best in the National League, but they're only percentage points behind the 14-10 Mets and Phillies (tied for fifth), a game behind the 16-10 Cardinals (fourth) and 15-9 Dodgers (third), and a game and a half behind the 16-9 Pirates (second) and 15-8 Giants (first). They've compiled a decent number of wins, though the presence of the Cardinals and Pirates ahead of them illustrates how tough the National League Central is this year. They've scored 3.7 runs per game over the period, the fifth fewest in the league, while giving up 3.9 runs per game, the sixth most. Does that sound lucky, a winning record despite giving up more than they've scored? Well, it is, but they're not alone: The Pirates have scored 4.3 and given up 4.4 over the past 30 days. So neither team has played as well as its record would indicate. The Cubs made a couple minor deals at the trade deadline, adding starter Dan Haren (whom the Pirates will face in his Cubs debut Wednesday) and reliever Tommy Hunter.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' strong starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over, and it's struggled over the last 30 days. Its 4.64 ERA is third highest in the league, and they've blown five saves (second most). In fairness, they've probably been a little unlucky as well, as a league-leading 32% of baserunners have scored and they've allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325, well above the league average of .299. Neither of those figures are likely to persist.

The offense has been bad. They've hit .222 with a .342 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, both worst in the league, and their .303 on base percentage is fifth worst. They've struck out in 24% of their plate appearances, third most in the league, making contact on just 75% of their swings, the lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? Every Cubs starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.00 or lower over the past 30 days except Jason Hammel (whom the Pirates won't face) and Dallas Beeler (whom Haren's replacing). The Pirates will go against the team's two best starters tonight and tomorrow, Jon Lester (1.98 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks over his last 36.1 innings) and Jake Arrieta (2.08 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 34.2 innings). First baseman Anthony Rizzo leads the Cubs in home runs with five and RBI with 16 over the past 30 days, though his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are all below his full-year averages. Center fielder Dexter Fowler has walked in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, helping him compile an outstanding .416 on base percentage. Rookie catcher-left fielder Kyle Schwarber, recalled from the minors on July 17, has been the team's most consistent hitter, with a .320/.433/.540 slash line in 17 games.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been run-of-the-mill mediocre, but two have been notably bad. Shortstop Starlin Castro is batting .144/.179/.167 over the last 30 days, with two extra-base hits, two unintentional walks, and 21 strikeouts over 24 games. Third baseman/All-Star/Rookie of the Year candidate Kris Bryant is batting .165 with a .284 on base percentage and has struck out in nearly of third of his plate appearances over the past 30 days. The Cubs have operated sort of a bullpen-by-committee this year, but over the past 30 days, Hector Rondon (1.26 ERA, four saves, five holds, 15 strikeouts and two unintentional walks over 14.1 innings) has clearly outshone Jason Motte (three saves, one blown save, two holds, 5.23 ERA) and Rafael Soriano (a free agent signed by the Cubs in June, the Nationals' closer much of last year, 6.35 ERA in six games). 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates have a better record than the Cubs this year, have scored more runs, and given up fewer. However, they face two of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the next two nights. Taking the series two games to one would be an accomplishment, but dropping two of three would be neither a big surprise nor a panic signal.