Saturday, August 8, 2015

ROY

This is a bumper year for rookies in the National League, right? Third baseman Maikel Franko's been a bright spot for a bad Phillies club. Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard has Citi Field fans wearing Thor outfits to his starts. Randal Grichuk has emerged a stalwart for the Cardinals, putting up the team's best hitting numbers while playing all three outfield positions. And, of course, the two shining stars have been Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson--both All-Stars, both Home Run Derby competitors. The National League Rookie of the Year award is a two-horse race between that duo.

That is SO June.

Here are Bryant and Pederson through June 30:
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS WPA
Kris Bryant 247 41 68 13 2 10 43 40 87 6 2 .275 .381 .466 .847 +2.7
Joc Pederson 262 45 64 12 1 20 38 55 94 2 5 .244 .384 .527 .911 +1.2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.
(WPA, as I explained in this article, is a measure of clutch hitting, reflecting the cumultative increase in expected winning percentage the player added on offense.)

And here they are since:
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS WPA
Kris Bryant 113 15 21 4 2 4 18 17 44 5 1 .186 .304 .363 .667 +0.6
Joc Pederson 103 8 27 6 0 1 5 11 36 0 1 .165 .265 .252 .517 -0.7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Bryant has fallen off the table, while Pederson's been one of the worst hitters in the league. His .517 OPS since the end of June is worse than the full-year OPS of his teammate Zack Greinke (.531) who is, of course, a pitcher. The two young stars' declines has created a more wide-open National League Rookie of the Year race.

Here is a list of the leading National League rookie hitters with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, ranked by OPS+, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to 100 (i.e., 100 = league average):

Rk Player OPS+ Tm AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Randal Grichuk 146 STL 261 40 75 20 7 14 43 16 87 4 1 .287 .335 .579 .913 LF
2 Matt Duffy 129 SFG 352 48 109 20 4 9 51 16 63 5 0 .310 .348 .466 .814 3B
3 Maikel Franco 128 PHI 284 42 80 21 1 12 47 24 48 1 0 .282 .343 .489 .832 3B
4 Jung Ho Kang 126 PIT 293 40 86 17 2 8 35 21 66 5 3 .294 .366 .447 .813 3B/SS
5 Joc Pederson 122 LAD 365 53 81 18 1 21 43 66 130 2 6 .222 .352 .449 .802 CF
6 Kris Bryant 119 CHC 360 56 89 17 4 14 61 57 131 11 3 .247 .357 .433 .790 3B
7 Yasmany Tomas 106 ARI 312 32 93 17 2 6 39 14 81 5 2 .298 .331 .423 .754 RF/3B
8 Odubel Herrera 104 PHI 318 41 91 22 3 5 29 12 77 9 4 .286 .317 .421 .739 CF
9 Jorge Soler 98 CHC 297 30 80 18 1 5 34 24 99 3 1 .269 .326 .387 .713 RF
10 J.T. Realmuto 82 MIA 297 32 73 15 5 6 29 12 48 4 3 .246 .276 .391 .666 C
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Not so much a Bryant/Pederson duopoly anymore, is it? Of particular note to Pirates fans, consider Jung Ho Kang. The signing of the Korean Baseball Organization star was a head-scratcher, given that :

  1. No batter has ever gone from the KBO to the majors. (There have been Korean-born major leaguers, but every hitter was drafted by an MLB team.)
  2. His Playstation-like numbers from last year with the Nexen Heroes (.356/.459/.739 slash line, 40 homers and 117 runs batted in during 117 games played) were the product (by the league's admission) of a juiced ball. 
  3. He was a shortstop in Korea, but the Pirates already had Jordy Mercer well-established there.
  4. He has the arm to play third, but the Pirates had last year's breakout star, Josh Harrison, ensconced there. 
All told, his four-year, $10.75 million contract (with a $5.5 million team option for a fifth year), on top of the $5 million posting fee the Pirates paid to Nexen for the right to negotiate with Kang, seemed out of place for the low-budget Pirates. Where would he play? How likely was it that he could hit?

At this point, I think we can safely say three things about Kang:

  1. He has absolutely been a lifesaver for the Pirates. He played a fair amount of shortstop early in the season, as Mercer struggled to get his batting average above .200. (He didn't get there until June.) Then he took over third when Harrison had thumb surgery on July 6. And when Mercer sprained his knee on July 19, Kang became the everyday shortstop.
  2. He's been one of the Pirates' best players. Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus all rate him as the Pirates' second best position player (after Andrew McCutchen) in overall value.
  3. As the table above indicates, he's a Rookie of the Year candidate. He's third in batting, first in on base percentage, and fifth in slugging among rookie hitters, all while playing a more important defensive position, and playing it well, than most.
If the season ended today, I'd expect Bryant to win Rookie of the Year. But the season isn't ending today. There's still time for the surprising Kang (check out the graphs in this article) to make up more ground.

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