Emerging from a Long Summer's Nap

I haven't posted here in a long time. The reason is that I've been focusing my efforts on two other sites, Baseball Prospectus and Banished to the Pen. I will probably post a few things here from time to time (read: every few months or so) but to find my current baseball writings, check my author archives:

• Baseball Prospectus
• Banished to the Pen

You can also catch my appearance on Effectively Wild, the fantastic Baseball Prospectus podcast (the fans of whom started Banished to the Pen), here.

And enjoy the rest of the regular season.

Trailing 30 - Independence Day Edition

Here's my Trailing 30 report for July 4, focusing on the best and worst performances over the past 30 days, with a focus on the extremes in the American League West. 

Latest from Banished to the Pen

Here are the top and bottom five performers for the 30 days ending Sunday, June 26, featuring the strangely alluring second-worst OPS hitters in each league.

I did a National League Central podcast with Alex Crisafulli (@alexcards79) and Eric Roseberry (@Ericdroseberry) last night. It's here. 

Trailing 30 - May 23

Here is my Trailing 30 post from Monday this week. I'm going to continue linking to the Banished to the Pen version rather than reproduce it here because it's in an easier-to-read format over there--the editor there is better than the one here!

Catchup

I know, posting's been light here. I've been writing a fair amount on other sites and I've been remiss in not posting it here. Here are some links.

On May 2, I wrote about Quality Starts as Baseball Prospectus. A lot of people deride quality starts, which are defined as a starting pitcher going six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs. I conclude that quality starts are, in aggregate, very well-pitched games. Scroll down to the end of the article for an enlightening comparison.

On May 12, also at Baseball Prospectus, I explored whether there are some hitters who consistently perform better with runners in scoring position. Short answer: It doesn't seem that way. Longer answer: Try flipping a coin six times.

On May 16, I wrote about the Pirates' and Reds' proclivity for hitting one another's batters with pitches at Baseball Prospectus. They do it a lot, but there's not a lot of evidence that it's a case of eye-for-an-eye retribution (though 2016 may be different).

On May 17, I initiated my Trailing 30 feature for 2016 at Banished to the Pen. Among other things, I found that as of that date, there were three Pirates starters among the bottom five for ERA over the past 30 days.

The Futility/Non-Futility of Late Innings

Have modern bullpens robbed baseball of the thrill of late-inning comebacks? I investigate in this article at Banished to the Pen. Short answers:

• Over the last 30 years, there has been very little change in the percentage of games won by teams trailing after six, seven, and eight innings...
• ...but the percentage has moved notably lower over the past four seasons, particularly in 2015.
• The primary reason it's harder to come back: It's tough to score on bullpens full of one-inning flamethrowers, and teams with 12- and 13-man pitching staffs have limited bench players available to bat in the late innings.
• The primary reason why it isn't harder to come back: With scoring down, late-inning leads are smaller, so teams trailing have less of a deficit to surmount.

As I Emerge From a Long Winter's Nap

Hokey smokes, I haven't blogged here since the end of 2015? That changes now.

Actually, I've had a somewhat busy winter, publishing-wise, just not here. Let me bring you up to date. 

In October, I wrote about how the American League in 2015 had the greatest parity, measured by the standard deviation of wins among its teams, in major league history. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

In December, I noted that four teams in 2015--the Pirates, Yankees, Nationals, and Phillies--had two catchers account for at least 98.5% of the innings caught by their teams, so their team didn't have to rely on a third catcher. Such teams, since 1969, have averaged 85 wins per season. Unfortunately, the trend doesn't appear to be durable. the 236 teams with just two players dominating catching chores one season, only 25% were able to repeat the feat the next year. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

Still in December, I did an analysis of every batter hit by a pitch in a Pirates game last year. There were a lot, given that the Bucs led the league in both hit batters (75) and getting hit by pitches (89). I found no evidence that the hit batters followed a general pattern of retaliation, i.e., you hit my guy, I hit yours. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here. 

Also in December, I discovered that hitters who changed their approach at the plate by pulling the ball a lot more or a lot less, or hitting it on the ground a lot more or a lot less, did better in 2015 relative to batters who hit more the same. But when the difference is generated by a lot more or a lot less of an action, it doesn't really suggest that, e.g., a batter would hit better by going the other way. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here. 

In the new year, I discovered that players 35+ are slowing down--exhibiting worse batting skills as they age--faster than in the past. The reasons, I hypothesized, are PED and amphetamine testing, faster fastballs, and managers' insistence on keeping high-paid veterans in the lineup. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

Also in January, I discovered that while on base percentage has been in vogue since the publication of Moneyball, slugging percentage is better correlated to run production than on base percentage. And don't even think about batting average. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

And that doesn't even cover my big winter project. I'll get to that tomorrow.

Going For The Hat Trick

My latest Banished to the Pen article is here. In it, I talk about fastballs. If you've been watching the postseason at all, you know that the Mets have pitchers who throw the ball really, really hard. If you've been paying a lot of attention, you may have read that the Royals were arguably the most successful team in the majors this season at hitting the fastest pitches. As I point out, both those are true. However:

1. The Royals were very successful at hitting pitches thrown 95+ mph, but less so with really, really fast pitches, based on work by mlb.com's Mike Petriello.
2. The Royals pitching staff throws very hard as well, and the Mets hitters struggled against very fast pitches.

I conclude that while people may be overestimating the ability of the Royals to hit the pitches the Mets are likely to throw at them, they may also be underestimating the problems Mets hitters may have with Royals pitchers.

On that note, I'd like to point out my record for predicting this year's postseason series. Let's ignore the wild card games, because they were just one game each. (I got the Cubs right and the Astros wrong). Among the four Division Series games, I was 3-0 (correctly predicting Cubs over Cardinals, Royals over Astros, and Blue Jays over Rangers) if you exclude the Mets (whom I thought would fall to the Dodgers). In the Championship Series, I was 0-1 (play along with me here - I thought the Blue Jays would beat the Royals) if you exclude the Mets (whom I thought would lose to the Cubs). In other words, I was 3-1 if you exclude the Mets. That's not bad! But I got the Mets wrong twice, making me as good as a coin flip at 3-3. 

The point is, I'm going to try to keep the streak going. I'm going to pick the Royals in the World Series. I think their hitters will have more success against the Mets pitchers than people may think, and I think their pitchers will have more success against the Mets hitters than people may think. Specifically, as I pointed out in the article linked above, the Mets were one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting very fast fastballs, which the Royals throw a lot. Further, the Mets' hitters' tendency to hit fly balls (fifth most frequently in the majors) plays into the Royals' pitchers' tendency to yield fly balls third most frequently in the majors). Fly ball/ground ball tendencies are similar to rightly/lefty match-ups: Hitters tend to do better against the opposite type of pitchers. So the fly ball-hitting Mets should do better against a ground ball-yielding team (like, e.g, the Dodgers, who were second in the majors at yielding ground balls) than against the fly ball-yielding Royals, and the fly-ball yielding Royals should do better against the fly ball-hitting Mets than against a ground ball-hitting team (like, e.g., the Pirates, who were sixth in the majors at hitting ground calls). (Neither the Mets pitchers nor the Royals hitters had a pronounced fly ball/ground ball tendency, so there isn't a notable match-up when the Mets are pitching.)

That being said, my choice of Kansas City probably means that New York will win. You're welcome, Mets fans.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Division Series Round

Well, that was clever. Wrote the previews, then forget to publish them. These are a day old. Sorry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Toronto: This series is viewed as the most lopsided among the Division Series, with Toronto heavily favored. I agree. Texas' big trading deadline acquisition, lefthanded starter Cole Hamels, will start in the second game on Friday and, if necessary, in the fifth game on Wednesday. However, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League against lefties. They scored the most runs in the league (5.7 per game; the Rangers were a distant second at 5.1) and gave up the fewest (3.7; the Rangers were eighth at 4.6). I could see the Blue Jays sweeping this one. [Note: I wrote this before the Rangers won last night's game, 5-3. I still think the Jays will win the series. I'm assuming third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Jose Bautista, who left Thursday's game with injuries, are healthy.] For a more comprehensive look at this series, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Barry Gilpin's preview here.

Houston vs. Kansas City: Another series with a clear favorite, as the Astros fell out of the American League West lead late in the season and struggled to qualify as a wild card, while the Royals had the best record in the American League. However, the Astros overall played better ball than their record indicated, based on the underlying statistics, while the Royals won five more games than their run production would predict. These two teams are a stark contrast: Houston hits home runs and strikes out in bunches, Kansas City batters led the league in contact and had the lowest strikeout rate, by far. Kansas City had a surprisingly weak rotation and a shutdown bullpen; Houston's rotation was solid, anchored by likely Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, and a bullpen that looked gassed down the stretch. I'm favoring the Royals in five because the Astros will get only one game from Keuchel and because the Royals pitchers were very effective against fly ball hitters, and no team hit a larger proportion of fly balls than the Astros. [Note: I wrote this before the Astros won last night's game, 5-2. I'm not feeling good about that prediction; if the Royals don't win today, it's going to be a real struggle for them.] For a more comprehensive look at the series, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals had the best record in baseball, but the Cubs had the third best. Like the Astros, the Cubs have a Cy Young candidate, Jake Arrieta, who was used in the wild card game and will thus be available in only Game 3 of this series. Unlike the Astros, who faded in the stretch, the Cubs had the best record in the National League in the second half of the year, scoring the second must runs in the league and allowing the third fewest since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are relying on a number of players coming off injuries who may or may not be at their best: catcher Yadier Molina, pitcher Adam Wainwright (who'll be available only out of the bullpen), and outfielders Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, and Stephen Piscotty. Pitcher Carlos Martinez is out with a shoulder injury and first baseman Matt Adams, recovering from a leg injury, is not on the Division Series roster. I pick the Cubs in four games. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

New York vs. Los Angeles: It's hard to imagine a New York vs. Los Angeles series not getting top billing, but the longtime Chicago/St. Louis rivalry and the Cubs' history (107 years since their last World Series championship) may take center stage. The story of this series will be pitching: the Mets' young guns vs. the Dodgers' two Cy Young contenders, lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Zack Greinke. (The secondary story will be the Madoff-scammed financially constrained Mets vs. the more-money-than-God Dodgers.) Both teams had surprisingly good offenses (the Dodgers were seventh in scoring and the Mets eighth despite both playing in pitcher-friendly parks) and strong closers with OK-not-great middle relief. I'm taking the Dodgers in five games, as the Mets' record was juiced by playing in the very weak National League East (the club was 43-43 outside of their home division) while the Dodgers bullpen, a perennial weakness that helped torpedo their last playoff appearances, seemed to have found its footing after the All-Star break. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Darius Austin's very thorough preview here.

The Best of Leagues, The Worst of Leagues

As with every season, there have been storylines that are unique to the 2015 baseball season. The remarkable infusion of young talent to the game. The relevance of the Cubs and Astros after years of being doormats. The disarray in Boston and Detroit. And, of interest here, the general ineptitude of the American League.

I analyze this supposed AL inferiority in this article on FanGraphs, and this one in Banished to the Pen. The FanGraphs article has data through games of September 5, while the Banished to the Pen piece is through September 9. The conclusion of each is the same:

The record level of parity in the American League to date has smoothed out the top and bottom of the league, resulting in hardly any notably bad or notably good teams. But that parity shouldn’t be mistaken for weakness. The American League is the better league overall, as evidenced by its clearly superior record in interleague play. The National League may have the best teams, but the American League remains the better league.

Programming Note: Banished to the Pen

Effectively Wild is a Baseball Prospectus podcast, co-hosted by BP's editor-in-chief Sam Miller and former editor-in-chief (now Grantland contributor) Ben Lindbergh. It's great; the only podcast I get that I listen to as soon as I download it. Nearly three years ago, a group of Effectively Wild fans started a collective blog called Banished to the Pen. (Get it? You know, pen as in bullpen, pen as in writing implement? Never mind.) I've started contributing to it; you can see my first post, a slightly jazzed-up version of my Trailing 30 weekly writeup, here. I hope to be a semi-regular contributor to Banished to the Pen going forward.

What does it mean for On The Field Of Play? Pretty much nothing. I'll still be writing here. A lot of what I'll post at Banished to the Pen will be more or less the same as what I write here, with maybe a bit more of a sabermetric/numerical bent. And Banished to the Pen has real editors, so it'll look a lot nicer than what you'll see here. But in terms of content:

• If you're here to read about the Pirates, stay put. Everything I write about the Buccos will still appear here, with only a subset appearing at Banished to the Pen.
• If you're interested in baseball more broadly, I hope you'll stay here, but I encourage you to check out Banished to the Pen as well. There's a talented stable of writers, some of whom have already been called up to write for major baseball websites, discussing a wide array of topics.