Time for Awards

Yeah, I know, they won't be announced until after the Series. But the voters have to submit their ballots before postseason play. More significantly, the deadline for Baseball Prospectus's Internet Voting Awards is next Friday, and I voted (my ballot is here), so here we go.

Annual disclaimer: Note that this blog is called On The Field of Play. Awards aren't on the field of play. So this is going to be short. I'm going to list who I think should get each award and who I think will receive it. Then let's move on, OK? It's the postseason.

Disclaimer: I don't feel a team's won-lost record is relevant. I don't think awards should be limited to players whose teams play in the postseason. I also don't buy that pitchers shouldn't be eligible for the MVP award. That's my opinion. You might not agree. Many voters don't. That's cool. Just want you to know where I'm coming from.

AL MVP
Who should get it: Last year, I agonized over this one. This year, it's one of three absurdly easy awards to call. The Angels' Mike Trout led the league in runs, RBI, and total bases; was third in slugging percentage, home runs, and OPS; and played a key defensive position (center field), and played it well.

Who will get it: The only question is whether it'll be unanimous.

NL MVP
Who should get it: There are several players who, in my view, had good years. I'll list them by OPS:

Player	OPS	Tm	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
Andrew McCutchen	.952	PIT	548	89	172	38	6	25	83	84	8	115	9	18	3	.314	.410	.542
Giancarlo Stanton	.950	MIA	539	89	155	31	1	37	105	94	24	170	16	13	1	.288	.395	.555
Anthony Rizzo	.913	CHC	524	89	150	28	1	32	78	73	7	116	8	5	4	.286	.386	.527
Yasiel Puig	.863	LAD	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	67	3	124	7	11	7	.296	.382	.480
Buster Posey	.854	SFG	547	72	170	28	2	22	89	47	5	69	16	0	1	.311	.364	.490
Jayson Werth	.849	WSN	534	85	156	37	1	16	82	83	3	113	9	9	1	.292	.394	.455
Jonathan Lucroy	.837	MIL	585	73	176	53	2	13	69	66	3	71	13	4	4	.301	.373	.465
Carlos Gomez	.833	MIL	574	95	163	34	4	23	73	47	0	141	10	34	12	.284	.356	.477
Anthony Rendon	.824	WSN	613	111	176	39	6	21	83	58	2	104	11	17	3	.287	.351	.473

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

However, the question isn't which hitter had the best year; it's whether the award will go to a hitter or a pitcher. Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw went 21-3, led the league in ERA for the fourth straight year--his 1.77 ERA was less than half the league average of 3.66--and he was first in WHIP (0.86), strikeouts/walks (7.7), and complete games (6) and third in strikeouts (first in strikeouts per nine innings) despite starting only 27 games due to an early-season stint on the disabled list. I voted for Pittsburgh's McCutchen (followed by Miami's Stanton) because of that DL stay; I weighted McCutchen's 648 plate appearances (tied for 16th) over Kershaw's 749 batters faced (37th). But I'd be fine with Kershaw winning...

Who will get it: ...which is a good thing, because he will.

AL Cy Young
Who should get it: I thought Cleveland's Corey Kluber and Seattle's Felix Hernandez stood out this year. Let's break them down:

Player	G	GS	CG	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Corey Kluber	34	34	3	18	9	.667	0	235.2	207	72	64	51	269	2.44	14	.233	.279	.345
Felix Hernandez	34	34	0	15	6	.714	0	236.0	170	68	56	46	248	2.14	16	.200	.243	.303

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

Kluber generated his record despite playing with a weak defense behind him. Hernandez pitches in a pitcher-friendly ballpark but got limited run support (3.5 runs per 27 outs when he was in the game, 12th lowest in the league). Both pitched for teams that made a run for, and fell short of, the post-season. I was all set to vote for Hernandez given that he played in the same division as two of the best teams in baseball (Angels and A's) while Kluber pitched in the weak American League Central, but Behind the Box Score calculated that Kluber's opponent-adjusted run prevention was superior. So I voted for him.

Who will get it: With no obvious choice among the three division winners, I suspect King Felix will win his second award of the decade.

NL Cy Young
Who should get it: Kershaw, obviously. Adam Wainwright of St. Louis and Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati had good years, but there is not a race.

Who will get it: As I said, there are three absurdly easy races to call this year. Trout for AL MVP is the first. This is the second.

AL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: And this is the third. Chicago slugger Jose Abreu was fifth in batting average and on base percentage, first in slugging, third in homers, and second in OPS. Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka was an early favorite but was sidelined from early July to late September with elbow woes, limiting him to 20 starts.

Who will get it: Abreu. It won't be close.

NL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: The favorite much of the season was Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton, who had a surprisingly good glove in center field settled into the Reds' leadoff position, stealing 56 bases. I give him two major demerits, though. First, his .292 on base percentage really doesn't cut it for a leadoff hitter. The league average was .326, and the Reds were second to last in leadoff hitter on base percentage. That's why Hamilton, despite his blazing speed and starting 136 games in the leadoff position, was tied for only 34th in runs scored. Second, Hamilton somehow managed to get caught stealing on  29% of his steal attempts, worse than the league average of 28%. So my pick is Mets starter Jacob deGrom, who compiled a 9-6 record with a 2.69 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning after being called up in mid-May.

Who will get it: It'll be close between Hamilton and deGrom. I think the voters will probably be swayed by Hamilton's raw steals and strong defense without considering his poor on-base skills and pedestrian stolen base success percentage.

AL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: I voted for Baltimore's Buck Showalter, New York's Joe Girardi, and Cleveland's Terry Francona, in that order. Showalter guided a team picked by many to finish last in its division to the second-best record in the league. Girardi had to deal with injuries to his entire starting rotation, two free agent busts (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran), and (ahem) the worst OPS in the league from the shortstop position, and still got 84 wins. Francona led a team expected to decline after a postseason appearance last year to 85 wins and postseason contention well into September. 

Who will get it: I imagine Showalter will walk away with it. Angels manager Mike Sciocia will probably get votes too.

NL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: My pick's Pittsburgh's Clint Hurdle who, like Francona, guided a team to a surprising playoff bid in 2013 but was expected to decline in 2014. Instead, the Pirates made it to October again (barely, getting bounced in the wild card game). I suspect San Francisco's Bruce Bochy will get support too, as will Washington's rookie skipper Matt Williams. Again, these votes take place before the postseason, so the voters didn't have the benefit of seeing Bochy kind of manage circles around Williams in their Divisional Series.

Who will get it: I imagine this will be horse race between Bochy, who was dealt a tough injury hand this year, and Williams. I hope for the sake of the Baseball Writers Association of America electorate that it's Bochy.

Your On The Field of Play Championship Series Primer

American League: Baltimore vs. Kansas City. Here's one of the more unlikely matchups. Before the season, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and ESPN all picked the Orioles to finish last in the American League East. (I had them in fourth.) BP and FanGraphs had the Royals in third in the American League Central, below .500, while ESPN had them second with 83 wins. (I had them in second, too, though with 89 wins, a totally lucky guess.)

Let's start with a couple striking similarities. By just about every advanced fielding metric, these two teams play the best defense in the American League. The Orioles have done it despite losing two top fielders to injury, catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado. 

They also have two of the best bullpens in the league. The Orioles' reliever ERA of 3.10 is third in the league, and the Royals' 3.30 is fifth. The Orioles have been helped by an unusually low batted average on balls in play, .274, second lowest in a league where the average is .292, while the Royals relievers have allowed home runs on only 7.5% of fly balls, lowest in the league compared to an average of 9.2%. So they've each been a little lucky. The Royals have blown only 12 saves all year, second lowest in the league, while Orioles led the league in Holds (save-qualifying leads preserved for another reliever) with 97. Their starters had virtually identical ERAs, 3.60 for Kansas City and 3.61 for Baltimore.

After defense and pitching, though, the teams diverge. The Orioles were first in the league in homers with 211, 34 more than the next-highest club. The Royals were last with 95, 16 lower than the next-lowest. The Orioles struck out in 21% of their plate appearances, the fifth highest in the league, but the Royals were the toughest team to fan in the league. The Orioles led the league in isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average, a measure of power) and the Royals were last. The Royals led the league in steals, handily, with 153 (31 more than the next highest). (As Rob Neyer pointed out, though, the Royals' two speedsters, Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore, combined for zero runs scored during the Divisional Series. Zilch.) The Orioles were last in steals, handily, with 44 (19 fewer than the next lowest). The Orioles scored 48% of their runs on homers, first in the majors; the Royals got 25% of their runs via the long ball, last in the majors. When they made contact, Royals batters hit 47% ground balls, second most in the league, and 32% fly balls, second fewest. Orioles batters hit 37% fly balls, second most in the league, and 43% ground balls, fourth fewest.

Then there are the managers. The Orioles' Buck Showalter is widely viewed as a brilliant strategist as well as a great motivator. He's a near-certain choice for AL Manager of the Year. The Royals' Ned Yost...well, not so much.*


To me, Showalter vs. Yost favors the Orioles, as does the Orioles offense vs. the Royals offense. The starting staffs, on paper, look pretty even, though, as I mentioned in my Postseason Primer:

Overall, there's part of me that thinks that the Orioles have been doing it with mirrors: Starting rotation led by Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez, 54-29 with a 3.44 ERA after a combined 109-104, 4.16 ERA in their prior seasons?

With the two bullpens, expect a lot of six-inning games. The average American League team won 87.5% of games it led after six innings this year. The Royals led the league with a 94.2% percentage, and the Orioles were third at 91.1%. (The Twins somehow snuck in ahead of the Orioles at 91.2%, though their pitchers had to protect 21 fewer leads after six than the Orioles.) Some may worry about the Orioles' dependence on the long ball, especially given that the Royals gave up the third fewest homers this year (128) and the second-lowest percentage of home runs on fly balls (8.2%), but I showed that relying on the home run doesn't harm a team in the postseason. So I'll give a nod to the Orioles bats and the guy in their dugout.

National League: St. Louis vs. San Francisco. I don't have as much to say here, for a simple reason: I don't get the San Francisco Giants. They lose to injury their best on base threat (Angel Pagan) and top slugger (Michael Morse) not named Buster Posey, and they win. (Morse has been activated for the Championship Series, though it's not clear whether he'll be limited to pinch hitting.) They pick up Jake Peavy and his 4.72 ERA from Boston at the trade deadline and he responds with a 2.17 ERA over 12 starts. In a four-game Divisional Series win, they hand the ball to Tim Hudson (8.72 ERA in September) for one start and Ryan Vogelsong (5.53 ERA in September) for another and they give up two runs over 13 innings. They have an OK bullpen (3.01 ERA, third in the league, though clearly helped by an unsustainably low .256 batting average on balls in play) and they put up a 2.33 ERA against the Nationals. I thought the Nationals-Giants series was the most one-sided going in. I sure got that wrong.

Then I compare them to a Cardinals team that was only tenth in the league in runs scored (the Giants were fifth), scored only 16 runs more than they allowed (51 for the Giants), and were 32-23 in one-run games during the regular season, an indicator of luck rather than skill (the Giants were 18-22). As in the other series, there's a manager question, with the Giants' Bruce Bochy, described in an article today as one of the best managers of all time, against St. Louis's Mike Matheny, who, among other things, is in only his third year piloting the Redbirds. 

Overall, I see more questions with the Giants than with the Cardinals. I also see a lot of familiarity: The Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012, and the Cardinals won in 2011 and lost in 2013. This will be the second straight Giants-Cardinals NLCS and the fifth straight year that one of the two teams will be the National League's representative in the World Series. By contrast, the Orioles haven't been to the ALCS since 1997 and the World Series since winning it in 1983. This'll be the Royals' first ALCS appearance since they won the World Series in 1985. Sentimentality will reside with the American League this year.


* You'll hear Yost is hated by the statsheads. There's some truth to that, as he doesn't really play the percentages, but the media gets the story wrong. They say the stats guys decry stolen bases. That's not right. Stolen bases make sense if the gains from steals outweigh the downside from getting caught. In order for that to be true, you have to be very good at stealing bases, and the Royals are, as their 81.0% success rate was second only the Yankees' 81.2% in the American League. And stolen bases make a lot more sense for a singles-and-doubles team like the Royals than a homer-centric team like the O's. (Side note: The Royals have run wild in the postseason, stealing seven bases in their wild card game and five more in the Divisional Series against the Angels. They got six of those wild card steals against Oakland catcher Derek Norris, who threw out 17% of baserunners attempting to steal this year. The steals against the Angels were with Chris Iannetta behind the plate. He threw out 30%. Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph threw out 40%, tied for the best percentage among catchers in over 50 games, so the Royals will have a harder time stealing on days Joseph's behind the plate.)

The second trait of Yost that gets cited a lot is bunting. Here's the problem with bunting: In 2014, of teams with a runner on first and no outs, they scored, on average, 0.81 runs per inning. Teams with a runner on second and one out--the desired outcome of a sacrifice bunt--scored, on average, 0.62 runs per inning. So a sacrifice with a runner on first and no outs reduces scoring by 0.19 runs per inning. Runner on second with no outs? A sacrifice reduces scoring by 0.15 runs. Runner on first with one out? Reduces scoring by 0.19 runs. First and second with no outs? Reduces scoring by 0.13 runs. Sacrifice bunts reduce runs scored. This isn't a theoretical construct. This is actual data from actual games.

Now, that's not to say that they're always bad. When there's a bad-hitting pitcher at the plate, sacrifice away. I was emailing last week with a friend who's an Angels fan. We were talking about the eighth inning of last Friday night's game, Royals and Angels tied 1-1. Angels outfielder C.J. Cron led off with a double, bringing up catcher Chris Iannetta. Iannetta didn't bunt, and instead flew out to center fielder Jarrod Dyson, who nailed pinch runner Collin Cowgill trying to advance to third for a double play. In that situation, a sacrifice to move Cowgill to third with one out would've decreased the expected runs scored in the inning for the Angels. But it would have slightly increased their chance of scoring scoring one run (probably all they'd need), and would have slightly increased their chance of winning as well. Basically, a sacrifice would have increased the chance of scoring one run but decreased the chance of scoring more than one. So a bunt in that situation, where just one run would've made a big difference, would've made sense (except that Ianetta apparently can't bunt).

The more controversial bunts are when position players bunt, particularly in early innings, when the goal is to score runs, plural, not just one run. And guess what? In 2014, Yost had the Royals position players lay down 30 bunts--tied for sixth in the league. You know who was fifth, with 32 position player bunts? Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles. The image of Ned Yost as a mad bunter, whether portrayed by the media or by statheads, really isn't true. (He went crazy in the wild card game, with four bunts, but had only one sacrifice in the three games against the Angels.)