Overworked Pen, Revisited

At the beginning of July, I wrote that the Pirates have gone to their bullpen a lot, and that this raised concerns about the relievers' durability over a 162-game season. The team's top four relievers at the time--Arquimedes Caminero, Jared Hughes, Mark Melancon, and Tony Watson--had appeared in more games, and pitched more innings, than any top four in the National League. However, I noted that the Pirates relievers were unusually efficient, with all throwing a below-average number of pitches per inning. As a result, they hadn't thrown as many pitches as many of their peers, reducing the concern about wear and tear.

I decided to revisit this analysis as we enter the last month-plus of the season. I expanded my net, looking at each team in the majors. For each club, I identified their top three relievers, not in terms of games pitched, but in how they're used. FanGraphs' RotoGraphs column each week has a "Bullpen Report" that lists the top three relievers for each team. For the Pirates, for example, the closer is Melancon and the top two setup men are Joaquim Soria and Watson. For each team, I calculated, for the top three relievers:

• The number of games in which they've appeared
• The number of batters they've faced (a superior measure to innings pitched, which measures only outs)
• The number of pitches they've thrown

I included only relief appearances for pitchers who've moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen. For pitchers who've been traded, like Soria, I used their full-year statistics. This analysis makes bullpens that've had upheaval through injury (e.g., the Braves, who lost closer Jason Grilli for the season in mid-July to a ruptured Achilles) or roster changes (e.g., the Mariners, who released closer Fernando Rodney over the weekend) seem well-rested, since more lightly-used relievers may have moved into more prominent roles. I don't worry about that; somebody's who's thrown only 30 innings is, in fact, likely pretty well-rested.

Here are the 12 bullpens whose top three relievers have appeared in the most games:

1. Pirates (Melancon, Soria, Watson) 176
2. Cubs (Rondon, Strop, Hunter) 170
3. Rangers (Tolleson, Diekman, Dyson) 168
4. Phillies (Giles, Garcia, Gomez) 164
5. Cardinals (Rosenthal, Siegrist, Cishek) 162
6. Angels (Street, Smith, Salas) 161
7. Marlins (Ramos, Dunn, Morris) 161
8. Mets (Familia, Clippard, Torres) 161
9. Yankees (Miller, Betances, Wilson) 160
10. Brewers (Rodriguez, Smith, Jeffress) 159
11. Indians (Allen, Shaw, McAllister) 156
12. Royals (Holland, Davis, Herrera) 153

Other contenders: Astros (Gregerson, Neshek, Qualls) T13th, Orioles (Britton, O'Day, Brach) 17th, Giants (Casilla, Romo, Strickland) 18th, Dodgers (Jansen, Johnson, Baez) 21st, Nationals (Papelbon, Storen, Janssen) T22nd, Twins T24th, Blue Jays (Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil) 27th.

Granted, it's a strain on a pitcher to appear in a game, as it entails both warmup pitches and live pitches. But there's more strain in coming into a game with one out and a runner on first and allowing two more batters to reach before retiring the next two compared to getting the first batter faced to ground into an inning-ending double play. So the number of batters a reliever faces is probably a better indicator of usage than the number of games in which he appears. The top three relievers for these teams have faced the most batters:

1. Phillies 740
2. Rangers 698
3. Pirates 671
4. Cubs 670
5. Mets 667
6. Cardinals 655
7. Red Sox (Tazawa, Machi, Ognado) 642
8. Orioles 640
9. Angels 635
10. Indians 632
11. Reds (Chapman, Hoover, Mattheus) 625
12. Yankees 621

Other contenders: Astros 21st, Dodgers 22nd, Nationals 24th, Giants 25th, Twins 26th, Blue Jays 28th.

Finally, as I pointed out in July, efficiency can reduce strain on relievers' arms. So far this year, relief pitchers have averaged 3.9 pitches per batter faced. That figure ranges between 3.7 for the Giants, Twins and Pirates to over 4.0 for the Rangers, Rays, and Yankees. Spread over a few hundred batters faced, those extra pitches can wear a pitcher down. These teams' top three relievers have thrown the most pitches this year:

1. Phillies 2,848
2. Rangers 2,694
3. Cardinals 2,669
4. Pirates 2,623
5. Mets 2,618
6. Yankees 2,556
7. Indians 2,545
8. Cubs 2,535
9. Reds 2,529
10. Orioles 2,523
11. Red Sox 2,413
12. Angels 2,412

Other contenders: Royals 16th, Dodgers 22nd, Astros 23rd, Giants 24th, Twins 25th, Nationals 26th, Blue Jays 28th.

So what are the takeaways here?

• The Pirates have used their relievers a lot. However, the figures shown above are skewed by the addition of Joakim Soria. If I substitute Jared Hughes (the Pirates' No. 3 reliever before they traded for Soria on July 30) for Soria, the Pirates are still No. 1 in games pitched and rise to No. 2 in batters faced, but they fall all the way down to tenth in pitches thrown, behind both the Cardinals and the Cubs. They remain one of the most efficient bullpens, in terms of pitches per batter, in baseball. 
• To expand on that, the only Pirates relievers who have averaged more than the major league average of 3.9 pitches per batter are Antonio Bastardo (4.4) and Soria (4.6 with the Pirates, 4.2 with the Tigers). That being said, of the 100 relievers who have thrown the most pitches this year, only three teams have six on their current roster: the Pirates, Cardinals, and Rangers.
• The teams toward the bottom of the lists, notably the Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, and Astros, in my opinion, seem to have particularly well-rested bullpens heading into September.

Overworked Pen?

After last night's 14-inning game, Pirates relievers have pitched 238.1 innings, the 13th most in the majors and fourth most in the National League. That's a bit of a surprise, given the quality of the starting rotation. Pirates starters have combined for 3.17 ERA, fourth in the majors and second in the National League. Normally, you'd think that good starters give you a lot of innings. And they do: Pirates starters are averaging 6.09 innings pitched per game, seventh most in the majors and third most in the National League. But the average Pirates game has lasted 9.23 innings this year, the most in the majors. (Pitchers for only the Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Pirates are averaging over nine innings per game.) So manager Clint Hurdle's gone to the bullpen. A lot.

That's borne out in usage numbers. I'm going to focus on the Pirates' four most frequently used relievers: Arquimedes Caminero, Jared Hughes, Mark Melancon, and Tony Watson. All four appeared in last night's game. Entering play tonight, Hughes and Melancon have appeared in 38 games, tying them for the third most in the majors. Watson's right behind with 37 appearances, tied for 11th. Caminero's been in 35 games, tied for the 27th most. Put another way, of the 40 pitchers who've appeared in 35 or more games this year, four are Pirates. Only the Cardinals, Giants and Phillies have as many as three. 

Well, maybe they've been in a lot of games, but have they been used lightly? The Cardinals have Left-handed One Out guY (LOOGY) Randy Choate, who's appeared in 36 games but pitched only 16 innings. Ditto the Giants with Javier Lopez, 39 games and 22 innings. The Pirates, though? Watson's pitched 38.1 innings, tying him for 11th most in the majors. Melancon's pitched 37.2 innings, the 15th most. Caminero, with 35 innings, is tied for the 29th most. Hughes' 34 innings ties him for the 38th most. Of the 41 relievers who've pitched 34 or more innings, four are Pirates. The only other team with that many is the Phillies, and the Diamondbacks are the only other team with as many as three.

So to review so far, the top four Pirate relievers, as a unit, have been used more frequently, and pitched more innings, than any other bullpen. Isn't that a big red flag?

Well, maybe, but perhaps not as red as it seems. Let's consider not just workload but the strain on the pitchers' arms. You can tax a reliever by asking to throw a lot of pitches, or to work consecutive days without rest. Let's tackle the second one first: the number of times a reliever's been called upon to pitch on no rest.

Here, the story's a little better. The Cardinals' Choate has pitched in 16 games after having pitched the prior day as well. That's the most in the majors. (Staying fairly true to his LOOGY acronym, he's pitched only 7.1 innings in those 16 appearances.) Watson has pitched on no days rest eleven times, tying him for 18th most in the majors. Melancon's pitched on no days rest ten times, tying him for 32nd.  It's happened nine times for Hughes, tying him for 43rd. And Caminero's pitched on consecutive days only seven times, tying him for 78th in the majors. By contrast, the Giants have four pitchers who've pitched ten or more times on no days rest. The Cardinals have three. So do the Braves, Brewers, Cubs, and Rays. By this measure, the Pirates, with only two, have been more conservative with their bullpen arms.

Then there's pitch counts. You hear about them more with starters, but they're relevant for relievers as well. The Phillies' Jake Diekman (30 games, 27.1 innings pitched) is averaging 21.0 pitches per inning. The Twins' Blaine Boyer (37 games, 36.1 innings pitched), on the other hand. is averaging just 13.4 pitches per inning, more than a third fewer than Diekman. The Cardinals' Choate is averaging only 12.7 pitches per inning. By being more efficient, Choate and Boyer are putting a lot less strain on their arms than Diekman.

Overall, major league relievers are averaging 16.3 pitches per inning this season. Are the Pirates relievers efficient, thereby saving their arms despite heavy workloads in terms of innings pitched?

Yes, they are. Hughes averages 13.4 pitches per inning. Melancon's average is 13.5. Watson's at 15.0. Caminero's 15.1. All four throw a below-average number of pitches per inning. As a result, while Pirates pitchers have elevated innings pitched, their pitches thrown this season are much more reasonable. Watson's thrown 575 pitches, 20th most in the majors. Caminero, with 530, is tied for the 44th most. Melancon's thrown 509, 60th most. Hughes, at 456, is tied for 88th most. The Pirates have three pitchers in the top 60 for relief pitches thrown. The Phillies have five. The Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Rays, and Yankees have three like the Pirates. Again, by this measure, the team looks a lot less reckless.

Then there's the pitchers themselves. The four primary Pirates relievers aren't kids. Caminero, though he'd appeared in only 19 major league games before this season, is 28. Melancon turned 30 in March, Watson did the same in May, and Hughes will do so this Saturday. So their arms are presumably less likely to be broken by overuse than a younger pitcher's might be. 

Me, I'd maybe tap on the brakes a little bit with Watson in order to make sure he's still relatively fresh in September. He's also the fallback closer in case something happens to Melancon. But overall, I'd say the Pirates bullpen is a lot less overworked than their games and innings pitched would seem to indicate.

Odds and Ends - April 26

• On April 14, I noted that left fielder Starling Marte had struck out in 47% of his plate appearances, the highest percentage in the National League. In the ten games since, his strikeout rate is just 18%. (The NL average for position players so far this year is 19.4%.) He's also batting .323 with a .742 slugging percentage since April 14. His problem was that he was swinging on a lot of pitches outside the strike zone (45% of pitches thrown to him outside the strike zone) and missing a lot of them (61%). He's cut down on his swings outside the strike zone (his total for the year's below 41%) and, as a result, making contact more frequently (whiffing on 52% of out-of-zone pitches year to date). Looks like he started the year over-aggressive but has things together now.
• The Pirates' offense remains a sore spot. They're batting .223 (11th in the league) with a .275 on base percentage (13th) and .364 slugging percentage (10th). Their OPS of .639 is 13th in the National League, 12th when adjusted for PNC Park. The only positions at which they're getting above-average offensive performance (measured by park-adjusted OPS) are catcher and second base. Center fielder Andrew McCutchen's got a .175/.294/.316 slash line--this is the worst 17-game streak of his career, I'm pretty sure [UPDATE 4/27: Nope, not at all. Watch you search terms! But pretty bad]; are we sure he's not hurt?--and last year's other top performer, third baseman Josh Harrison, is slashing .221/.264/.382. The team's been kept afloat by its starting pitchers, who have a 2.87 ERA (second best in the league), 1.16 walks and hits per inning pitched (third), and a 23.5% strikeout rate (second), 
• No, Mark Melancon's velocity hasn't returned yet. But he's pitched in each of the last three games, collecting saves in each. His average cut fastball velocity: 89.8 mph Thursday, 88.7 mph Friday, 88.2 mph Saturday. (All figures from Brooks Baseball.) Recall that he's never averaged below 90 mph, even for a month, over his career. His recent success suggests that he's substituting guile for speed, but I don't know whether that'll last. If he struggles, the Pirates have plenty of depth, with lefty Tony Watson (3.00 ERA and zero walks in 11 appearances), righty Jared Hughes (2.89 ERA, 11/2 strikeout/walk ratio), or flamethowing Arquiimedes Caminero (98.8 mph average fastball velocity, second in the league to Reds closer Aroldis Chapman) probably 1-2-3 in the closer depth chart behind Melancon.
• The Pirates' next series is against the Cubs. I'll hit that up tomorrow. The Cubs are the only National League team the Bucs have played this year with a winning record; they went 1-2 against the 12-6 Detroit Tigers in interleague play.

The Very Model of a Modern Major League Bullpen

Through four games, the Pirates have used the following pitchers in relief:

Rk	Name	ERA	G ▾	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	WHIP
1	Tony Watson*	9.00	3	1	0	3.0	4	3	3	0	3	13	1.333
2	Jared Hughes	3.00	2	0	0	3.0	3	1	1	0	4	12	1.000
3	Rob Scahill	0.00	2	1	0	1.1	2	1	0	1	2	8	2.250
4	Radhames Liz	13.50	1	1	0	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	5	3.000
6	Arquimedes Caminero	0.00	3	0	0	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	5	0.000
7	Antonio Bastardo*	0.00	3	0	0	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	6	3.000
8	Mark Melancon	0.00	2	1	0	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	7	0.500

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 4/11/2015.

Do you notice anything? Let me show it a different way. Here's a list, by game, of Pirates relievers used:

• Monday April 6: Watson (1.0 innings)
• Wednesday April 8: Hughes (1.2 innings), Bastardo (0.0), Caminero (0.1), Watson (1.0), Scahill (1.0), Melancon (1.0), Liz (0.2)
• Thursday April 9: Caminero (0.2 innings), Bastardo (1.0), Watson (1.0), Scahill (0.1)
• Friday April 10: Hughes (1.1 innings), Bastardo (0.0), Caminero (0.2), Melancon (1.0)

Here's my point: Jared Hughes is the only Pirates reliever to have pitched more than inning so far this season. There have been 16 relief appearances, spread among seven pitchers, and in 87.5%, the pitcher's stayed in the game an inning or less.

This is in keeping with recent trends for the Pirates:

The percentage of relief appearances of one inning or less has been steadily increasing throughout the century. This isn't just a Pirates thing, it's a major league thing. Here's the same table for the entire National League:

We live in a baseball world in which there are roughly five relief appearances of an inning or less for every one that's over an inning. By contrast, for the 1979 Pirates (the last time the team won the World Series), only 51% of the team's 326 relief appearances were one inning or less. In fact, in that year, Pirates relievers earned saves in 26 games in which they pitched more than an inning. (17 by Kent Tekulve, five by Grant Jackson, four by Enrique Romo). Over the past ten years, there have been only seventeen such games for the Pirates: one in 2004, five in 2005, three in 2006, none in 2007-2010, three in 2011, two in 2012, three in 2013, none since. The last Pirate reliever to record a save pitching more than one inning was Ryan Reid, on June 28, 2013, when he pitched the last three innings of a 10-3 blowout victory over Milwaukee. (A pitcher who pitches the last three innings of a winning game gets a save, regardless of the score.) The other two long saves that season were thrown by Tony Watson, who pitched the last two innings of a 5-3 win over the Reds and a 6-4 victory against the Phillies.

All these relievers pitching short stints must be caused by starters not lasting long into games, right? It turns out that's not the case:

Starters are lasting longer than they did a decade ago. So the growing number of short relief appearances isn't because of a need to fill innings that starters aren't pitching. Rather, it's a tactical choice by teams: deploying a number of short-inning relievers who throw gas for a few pitches (every Pirates reliever's averaging over 90 mph on his fastball this year other than Melancon, who mostly throws changeups), then give way to somebody else who throws gas for a few pitches.

Again, this isn't a Pirates thing, a major league thing. But it contributes to two contemporary baseball scourges: Strikeouts (last year, National League relievers got strikeouts on 22.6% of opponents' plate appearances, compared to 19.5% of starters) and pace of play (for all those pitching changes).