What's Going On With Andrew McCutchen?

Andrew McCutchen is...well, choose your cliche. The best player on the Pirates, the face of the franchise, the team's superstar...you name it. He was the National League MVP in 2013 and finished third in 2014, when he arguably had a better season, leading the league in on base percentage and OPS. This year, so far, not so much:

Year	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2013	583	97	185	38	5	21	84	27	10	78	101	.317	.404	.508	.911	157
2014	548	89	172	38	6	25	83	18	3	84	115	.314	.410	.542	.952	166
2015	59	10	11	2	0	2	11	0	1	9	12	.186	.315	.322	.637	81

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 4/27/2015.

I've fretted in the past about his health. Yesterday, I noted that this is the worst hitting streak of his career. (I was wrong, it wasn't; keep reading.) What's wrong?

Is This Unusual?

No. McCutchen is a slow starter. April is, by far, his worst month of the season. Here are his career totals:

Month	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	140	533	79	139	32	1	17	67	27	9	65	102	.261	.347	.420	.767
May	134	491	77	156	23	6	19	60	26	6	72	87	.318	.406	.505	.911
June	156	610	107	196	48	10	21	108	27	5	68	127	.321	.394	.536	.930
July	146	552	90	170	36	8	25	85	18	7	67	106	.308	.382	.538	.920
August	155	573	99	165	29	4	24	80	24	14	79	109	.288	.377	.478	.855
Sept/Oct	167	599	106	171	34	7	24	73	21	10	103	127	.285	.398	.486	.883

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/27/2015.

At this point in his career, McCutchen has played about a full season's worth of games in each month. His April numbers are roughly 25% worse than his overall figures. He's a slow starter.

This year, as you can see, after 18 games, he's got a .186/.315/.322 slash line, giving him a .637 OPS, which is 19% worse than the National League average (OPS+ of 100 is 100% of the league average, so his 81 is 19% below league average). He's never started this slowly before. But during his MVP year of 2013, on the morning of April 30, he'd hit .203/.225/.319 over his prior 18 games, a .544 OPS--worse than his performance so far this season. So a wretched 18-game streak in Apirl isn't unprecedented. 

Looking at all the 18-game periods over his career, his .186 batting average this year is his worst since April 2011, his .315 on base percentage is his worst since September 2014, and his .322 slugging percentage and .637 OPS are his worst since August 2014. It's been a bad start to the season, but certainly not his worst 18-game streak, nor unusually bad for him. 

Still, when something like this falls at the beginning of the year, it's natural to wonder whether anything's different this year. I'll explore that next.

Is He Being Pitched Differently?

There are two rough ways of figuring out how much pitchers fear a hitter: How willing they are to throw their fastball, and how willing they are to pitch in the strike zone. Against weak hitters, pitchers will throw their fastball in the strike zone, daring the hitter to swing at it. Against strong hitters pitchers resort more to trickery: off-speed pitches that they try to get the batter chase outside the strike zone. Per FanGraphs, the five National League players who saw the greatest percentage of fastballs (four-seam and two-seam) last year had a combined .714 OPS. The five who saw the fewest had a combined .851 OPS. The five hitters who saw the largest percentage of pitches in the strike zone had a .662 OPS, the five who saw the fewest had a .779 OPS. So are pitchers going after McCutchen differently?
            % fastballs  % in zone
     2013      50.2%       48.2%
     2014      49.2%       47.4%
     2015      44.8%       46.3%
No evidence of any change. By limiting the fastballs and the number of pitches in the strike zone to McCutchen, pitchers are still treating him as a dangerous hitter.

Is He Swinging Differently?

When hitters lose plate discipline, they start swinging at pitches that they can't hit. That shows up in increased swing percentages and less contact on swings. Here are the percentage of pitches McCutchen's swung at, inside and outside the strike zone, and how often he's made contact:
             % of pitches swung at  % of contact on swings
              in zone    out zone     in zone    out zone
     2013      70.5%       23.7%       87.6%       60.3%
     2014      68.3%       23.7%       85.1%       60.4%
     2015      65.4%       20.9%       87.6%       45.5%
McCutchen's been more selective, not less, this season. He's swinging at fewer pitches. But when he does swing, he's making way less contact on pitches outside the strike zone. This year, out of 87 batting title qualifiers, he's 80th at contact outside the strike zone, near the bottom. Last year, it was middle of the pack: 46th out of 65. So that's an issue, at least so far. 

What Happens When He Makes Contact?

I've already thrown enough numbers your way, so take my word on this: McCutchen's percentage of ground balls, fly balls, and infield flies when he makes contact are in line with his prior performances. 

Three measures involving batted balls stand out, though: his batting average on balls in play (that is, all at bats that don't result in a home run or strikeout), the percentage of his fly balls that are home runs, and the percentage of batted balls that are line drives:
             BA on balls  % of FB     
               in play  that are HR   LD %
     2013       .353       12.4%     24.5%
     2014       .355       13.7%     18.7%
     2015       .191        8.7%      8.2%
Those are all pretty big changes. McCutchen's dropped from tenth in the league in batting average on balls in play (or BABIP) in 2013 and fourth in 2014 to fourth worst so far in 2015. His home run/fly ball percentage was 27th in 2013 and 17th in 2014; it's 48th this year. His line drive percentage has gone from ninth in 2013 to 54th in 2014 to last in 2015.


You know what those measures have in common? Luck. I'm not saying they're entirely luck-driven. McCutchen had a .350+ BABIP in 2013 and 2014 because he's a great hitter, not because he was lucky. Pedro Alvarez has hit over 20% of his fly balls over the fence during his career because he's got a lot of power, not because he's lucky. The Braves' Freddie Freeman leads the NL in line drive percentage over the last three years because he makes solid contact, not because he's lucky. But big variations in these measures, absent anything else, can be a matter of luck. Your swing gets a couple millimeters above the ball, and your line drive becomes a grounder. You hit a fly ball just a few feet short, and it's a fly out instead of a homer. You nail the ball but it's straight at a fielder, and it's an out instead of a hit. That appears to be what's going on with McCutchen so far.

So I'm inclined to attribute McCutchen's slow start to bad luck rather than something wrong with him as a hitter, particularly given his history of slow starts.

Next Up: The Cubs

The Pirates split four games with the Cubs last week and travel to Wrigley for three games starting tonight. Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks will start for the Cubs, which means the Pirates will once again be denied an opportunity to observe the Jon Lester Pickoff Move Experience. The Cubs, after dropping their last two to the Pirates, swept two games against Cincinnati (one game was postponed) over the weekend. 

The Cubs' best offensive performers have been veterans. Shortstop Starlin Castro (.329) and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.328) are 1-2 in batting average. Rizzo also leads the club in runs (14), walks (12), on base percentage (.481) and OPS (.963), while Castro leads in hits (23) and RBI (11). But the focus is on the youngsters:

• Right fielder Jorge Soler (23) is hitting .257/.321/.414. He's third on the club in runs scored with nine and second in homers with two. 
• Third baseman Kris Bryant (23) is hitting .333/.476/.455 since being called up. He's batted cleanup for the Cubs since his April 17 callup.
• Second baseman Addison Russell (21) hasn't really gotten untracked yet, as he's 3-for-22 with no walks and 12 strikeouts since his callup on April 21.

Next Up: Chicago Cubs

The Pirates have now completed four three-game series: two with Milwaukee and one each with Cincinnati and Detroit. The Brewers and Reds are generally expected to be National League Central also-rans, while the Tigers are--what's the opposite of also-rans? Rans?--in the American League Central. True to form, the Reds and Brewers occupy the last two positions in their division, and the Tigers have the best record in baseball.

Keeping with the Central theme, the 6-6 Pirates now host the 6-5 Cubs for four games. This could be the start of a pretty lively rivalry. They're both young teams. The average age of Cubs batters (weighted by at bats plus games played) is 27.3, second-youngest in the National League, with the Pirates just behind at 27.7, tied with the Padres for third. Pirates pitchers (weighted by 3 times games started, plus games plus saves) are fifth youngest at 28.9, with the Cubs at the league average of 29.3. Both teams should stay pretty young, as their farm systems are stacked: ESPN's Keith Law rates the Cubs No. 1 and the Pirates No. 7. And, after a long, long period of ineptitude--excluding the Houston Astros, who are now in the American League, the Pirates or Cubs have been last in the National League Central in each of the past ten seasons--both teams are poised to compete for a wild card and, if the Cardinals falter, the division. After years of one team or the other (or both) being punching bags, the two teams (both of which are data-savvy) are now positioned to be rivals at the top of the division.

That doesn't mean they're identical. The Cubs' estimated payroll of just under $113 million is 14th in baseball and the highest in the division. The Pirates, at $83.5 million, are 23rd in baseball and last in their division. The Cubs made a big splash in the free agent market over the winter, adding left-handed starter Jon Lester for $155 million over six years (or, depending on a team option, $170 million over seven). The biggest move by the low-budget Pirates was re-signing free agent starter Francisco Liriano for $39 million over three years. Going forward, the Cubs have more money to burn, while Pirates fans worry about second baseman Neil Walker, first baseman Pedro Alvarez, and closer Mark Melancon departing as free agents after the 2016 season. The Pirates farm system includes some top-notch pitchers, including Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and Nick Kingham. The Cubs' top prospects are all position players, suggesting that the team may spend some of its available cash on free agent pitchers next winter.

And there's Kris Bryant. The No. 2 pick in the 2013 amateur draft, Bryant was Baseball America's No. 1 rated prospect entering the season. He batted .425 with nine homers in 40 at bats in spring training, but was sent down to the minors to start the year, ostensibly to work on his defense at third (which remains weak) but actually to preserve a year of control for the Cubs. In any case, he was called up last Friday and has batted .300 with a .500 on base percentage in three games since.

Fun fact about Kris Bryant: He is 23 years, 106 days old. He has three career hits. At a similar age, Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper had...well, we don't know, because Harper won't be 23 years, 106 days old until 2015. He's got 368 career hits, and he's more than nine months younger than Bryant. That says something about both of them.

The Cubs will start Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks in the series, which means they'll miss Lester, robbing Pirates fans of the opportunity of seeing pickoff attempts like this:

and throws to first on comebackers to the mound like this:

So far this season, the Cubs hitters have a .227/.316/.372 slash line, ahead of the Pirates' .222/.281/.355 across the board. Several hitters are having nice, if not noteworthy, seasons, and the only batter to have struggled a lot is second baseman Arismendy Alcantara, who's batting .077 with no extra-base hits and strikeouts in 34% of plate appearances, the eighth-highest rate in the league among batters with 30 or more plate appearances.

Cubs starting pitchers have a 4.52 ERA, fourth worst in the league, nearly a run and half worse than the Pirates' 3.07. The Cubs' bullpen ERA of 2.65 is ahead of the Pirates' 2.94. Among the starters, Arrietta (1-1, 1.98 ERA) and Wood (1-1, 2.31 ERA) have started the year much stronger than Hammel (1-0, 5.11 ERA), Hendricks (0-0, 6.10 ERA) and Lester (0-2, 6.89 ERA).

Flyover: Chicago Cubs

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Nobody expected much of the Chicago Cubs this year, as they were widely viewed as still in the midst of a multi-year rebuilding effort under team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer. The team was in last in the NL Central on July 5 when it traded arguably its two best starting pitchers, Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, to Oakland for two minor leaguers, a pitcher whom they sent to the minors, and a player to be named later. They subsequently traded their starting second baseman, Darwin Barney, to the Dodgers and center fielder Emilio Bonifacio reliever James Russell to the Braves before the trade deadline, receiving two more minor leaguers. The Cubs released right fielder Nate Schierholtz on August 13; he signed with the Nationals five days later. Having cleared several veterans from the roster, the Cubs have called up several of their highly-touted young players, including center fielder Arismendy Alcantara, second baseman Javier Baez, and right fielder Jorge Soler, giving them an extended major league audition.

How Are They Doing Lately? Surprisingly well. Since going all-in on the youth movement, the Cubs are 16-13 over the past 30 days, the second-best record in the National League. People are talking about the Cubs as contenders in 2015. With several other top prospects in the minors (Baseball Prospectus ranked the Cubs' farm system second in the majors before the season) the outlook for the Cubs is finally brightening.

What's Going Right? The Cubs' starting pitchers have a subpar 3.95 ERA over the past 30 days, but that drops to 3.43, below the league average of 3.70, without Edwin Jackson, who's having a terrible year (6.09 ERA, the worst in the league by over a run) and is now on the disabled list. The relievers' 2.85 is fourth in the league. Cubs pitchers have walked less than 7% of opposing batters, the third fewest in the league, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0, fourth highest in the league. On offense, Cubs batters have hit a lot of home runs (40, second in the league). 

What's Going Wrong? The offense reflects the team's youth. Those home runs have been accompanied by a swing-at-anything approach at the plate; the Cubs have swung at 33% of pitches outside the strike zone in the past 30 days, second most in the league, but made contact on only 55% of those outside-the-zone swings, lowest in the league. On pitches in the strike zone, their 86% contact rate is second lowest in the league. This has resulted in walks in just 6% of plate appearances, second lowest in the league, and strikeouts in 27% of plate appearances, by far the most.  They've gotten home runs on 15% of fly balls, second in the league, and that's probably unsustainably high, given the league average of 10%. They haven't stolen a lot of bases--nine over the past 30 days, third fewest in the league--but they've managed to get caught stealing ten times, second-most. The team batting average over the past month is .239, fifth lowest in the league, and its .291 on base percentage is third lowest, given the lack of walks. The homers have kept the Cubs' slugging percentage and runs scored around league averages. 

Just as the hitters have been getting home runs at a rate that may not be sustainable, the pitchers have been unusually good at preventing them. Just under 8% of fly balls allowed by Cubs pitchers have cleared the fence over the past month. That percentage is likely to rise, given the league average of 10%, though the Cubs have been good at keeping the ball in the park all year.

Who's Hot? Shortstop Starlin Castro, perhaps hearing the footsteps of a stable of shortstops in the Cubs' farm system, has a .363/.396/.505 slash line, making him easily the Cubs' best hitter over the past 30 days. Rookie second baseman Baez is tied for team lead in homers with seven and leads with 14 runs and 14 RBI. Rookie center fielder Alcantara is second in homers with five and is second in runs with 12 and fourth in RBI with 11. (But keep reading about the kids.) Soler has played in only five games but in them he has three singles, four doubles, and three homers over 19 at bats. I'm guessing he doesn't maintain his .526/.550/1.121 slash line. Third baseman Luis Valbeuna has seven homers.

Starters Kyle Hendricks (3-0, 1.78 ERA over five starts) and Tsuyoshi Wada (3-1, 2.40 ERA over five starts) have been good over the past 30 days, but the bullpen has been the  team's pitching strength. Setup men Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop, and Wesley Wright have combined for 1.56 ERA and 46 strikeouts over their last 46 innings, and closer Hector Rondon has nine saves and a 0.69 ERA, allowing only nine hits and no walks in 13 innings pitched.

Who's Not? Baez has walked in just 3% of plate appearances and struck out in 42%. He has easily the highest strikeout rate in the majors and the second-lowest walk-to-strikeout rate in the National League. Over the past 30 days, National League batters--remember, this includes pitchers--have walked in 7.7% of plate appearances and struck out in 21.0%. Among regulars (75 or more plate appearances), Alcantara, Baez, Castro, and catcher Wellington Castillo are all walking at a below-average clip, and only Castro and outfielder Chris Coghlan are striking out at a below-average rate.

Returning to Baez: He's struck out 50 times in 120 plate appearances over his last 30 games. As Sam Miller pointed out in the Effectively Wild podcast, in 1988, Tony Gwynn struck out 40 games. All season. And that was the most strikeouts he ever had in a year. Baez has swung at 42% of pitches outside the strike zone compared to a league average of 31%, so pitchers are throwing strikes to him on only 40% of pitches compared to a league average of 49%. Still, the power--for a middle infielder!--is undeniable.

Among the pitchers, the aforementioned Jackson has had a terrible year. Jake Arrieta has had a bad stretch, going 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA over the past 30 days, but his line indicates that he's probably been unlucky as much as anything.

What's the Outlook? This is a last place team, but a fun one, as Cubs fans are going to be watching a lot of highly-touted youngsters over the remainder of the season, and a lot of strikeouts. That's OK. They have talented players getting playing time, and they're setting up for better times in years ahead. It's a shame that they play in what has become arguably the best division in baseball.