Trailing 30 - September 14

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: White Sox rookie first baseman Jose Abreu, batting .411 over the past 30 days, is now fifth in the American League in batting, eighth in on base percentage, first in slugging, tied for third in homers, and fourth in RBI. I'm saying the Rookie of the Year award looks pretty much done in the AL, right?

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles      23-6     1. San Francisco    18-9       

2. Baltimore       19-10     2. Washington      18-10        

3. Detroit         17-12     3. St. Louis       18-11         

4. Cleveland       16-11     4. Philadelphia    16-11   

5. Houston         15-11     5. Los Angeles     14-11        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Minnesota        8-21     1. Arizona          8-19      

2. Oakland          9-18     2. Milwaukee       10-17       

   Texas            9-18     3. Cincinnati      11-17      

4. Boston          10-19     4. San Diego       11-16
5. Tampa Bay       11-17     5. Miami           11-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Abreu, Chi       .411     1. Posey, SF        .417        

2. V Martinez, Det  .376     2. Marte, Pit       .380      

3. Aybar, LA        .374     3. Blanco, SF       .380           

4. Beltre, Tex      .367     4. Jay, SL          .365          

5. Navarro, Tor     .362     5. Panik, SF        .361       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Singleton, Hou   .160     1. Baez, Chi        .145          

2. Joyce, TB        .171     2. Smith, SD        .167       

3. Teixera, NY      .180     3. Bruce, Cin       .188
4. Jeter, NY        .183     4. Granderson, NY   .194           

5. Schoop, Bal      .188     5. Ellis, LA        .194      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Abreu, Chi       .486     1. Jay, SL          .472           

2. Ortiz, Bos       .465     2. Blanco, SF       .470          

3. V Martinez, Det  .456     3. Rendon, Was      .442         

4. Beltre, Tex      .454     4. Posey, SF        .436          

5. Navarro, Tor     .418     5. Marte, Pit       .436       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. V Martinez, Det  .651     1. Posey, SF        .718         

2. Ortiz, Bos       .634     2. Blanco, SF       .676     

3. Abreu, Chi       .589     3. Marte, Pit       .641       

4. Bautista, Tor    .570     4. Ozuna, Mia       .615       

5. Navarro, Tor     .565     5. Kemp, LA         .596        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Bautista, Tor       9     1. Arenado, Col        7
2. Carter, Hou         8        Harper, Was         7        

   Cruz, Bal           8        LaRoche, Was        7

   V Martinez, Det     8        Ozuna, Mia          7
5. 4 with              7        Posey, SF           7
        
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Trout, LA          26     1. Rendon, Was        26        

2. Calhoun, LA        25     2. Posey, SF          22     

3. V Martinez, Det    22        Span, Was          22
4. 3 with             20     4. Pence, SF          21
                             5. Yelich, Mia        20

   RBI                          RBI      

1. V Martinez, Det    27     1. Holliday, SL       26        

2. Bautista, Tor      25     2. Ozuna, Mia         25      

3. Longoria, TB       24        Posey, SF          25       

   Vargas, Min        24     4. LaRoche, Was       24
5. 3 with             22        J Upton, Atl       24
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Cain, KC            9     1. Hamilton, Cin      11            

2. Brantley, Cle       7     2. Revere, Phi        10     

   Dyson, KC           7     3. Lagares, NY         9   

   Ellsbury, NY        7     4. Inciarte, Ari       8
   Martin, Tex         7        Span, Was           8

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Rodney, Sea        10     1. Papelbon, Phi      10

2. Britton, Bal        9     2. Mejia, NY           9

3. Nathan, Det         7     3. Chapman, Cin        8
   Street, LA          7        Kimbrel, Atl        8

5. Holland, KC         6        Rondon, Chi         8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Carrasco, Cle    0.90     1. Peavy, SF        1.08

2. Cobb, TB         0.96     2. Kershaw, LA      1.32

3. Smyly, TB        1.28     3. Haren, LA        1.55

4. Shoemaker, LA    1.31     4. Cosart, Mia      1.57

5. Paxton, Sea      1.47     5. deGrom, NY       1.67

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Kazmir, Oak      7.42     1. Morales, Col     6.84

2. Webster, Bos     6.40     2. Hudson, SF       6.44

3. Danks, Chi       6.11     3. Lyles, Col       5.59

4. Nolasco, Min     5.76     4. Despaigne, SD    5.27

5. Happ, Tor        5.72     5. Nelson, Mil      5.02

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Smyly, TB        0.69     1. Kershaw, LA      0.68

2. Carrasco, Cle    0.78     2. Bumgarner, SF    0.81
3. Shoemaker, LA    0.79     3. Collmenter, Ari  0.82

4. Tillman, Bal     0.79     4. deGrom, NY       0.85
5. Duffy, KC        0.91     5. Wood, Atl        0.88

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Price, Det         45     1. Bumgarner, SF      50      

2. Carrasco, Cle      43     2. Kershaw, LA        47

   Kluber, Cle        43     3. Burnett, Phi       40

4. Hughes, Min        42     4. Cueto, Cin         39

   Sale, Chi          42     5. 2 with             38

Flyover: Detroit Tigers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Just before the July 31 trade deadline, the first-place Detroit Tigers completed a three-way trade in which they gave up center fielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Drew Smyly, and a minor leaguer for starting pitcher David Price. After the trade, the Tigers had the Cy Young award winners in 2013 (Max Scherzer), 2012 (Price), and 2011 (Justin Verlander) in their rotation, along with Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez, who might be No. 1 starters on other teams. The question was which of those five would go the bullpen when the Tigers waltzed to the postseason.

Since the trade, the Tigers are 19-19, have fallen out of first, two games behind the Royals, and entered today's games trailing the second wild card team, Seattle, by a game and a half. The question isn't their postseason rotation, it's whether they'll make the postseason at all.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 15-15. That's not bad, but the Royals are 18-9. The offense has been pretty good: 5.00 runs per game, third most in the league. But they've given up 5.20 per game, second most. 

What's Going Right? The Tigers are batting .280 (first in the league), with a .338 on base percentage (also first), and a .415 slugging percentage (third) over the past 30 days. They're fourth in home runs with 25, and they've even stolen 21 bases, getting caught just five times. In 2013, the Tigers stole 35 bases all year.

As for the pitchers, as I'll argue in the next section, they've been better than the numbers would indicate. 

What's Going Wrong? Going into the season, the Tigers were viewed as having a good rotation, shaky bullpen. Over the past 30 days, the starters have been shelled, with a 4.89 ERA, worse than every team but the cover-your-eyes-bad Rangers and Twins. The relievers have been average, with a 3.53 ERA compared to a league average of 3.47. So what's been wrong with the starters? Well, it's probably partly bad luck. They've allowed a .345 batting average on balls in play, the highest in the league, and that's usually more indicative of bad luck than bad pitching. They've struck out the third most batters and allowed the third fewest walks, so that's not the problem. In fact, by the measure Fielding-Independent Pitching, or FIP, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, the Tigers starters have been second best in the league, not third worst. So what, you ask--well, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. Painful as this stretch has been, the Tigers starters have really been better than they've seemed. 

Who's Hot? DH Victor Martinez has been scorching over the past 30 days. He's batting .375 (second in the league) with a .481 on base percentage (first) and a .616 slugging percentage (second). He's tied for first in RBI, second in runs, and tied for fifth in homers. In 135 plate appearances, he's walked 22 times and struck out only five times. Equally importantly, defending two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, who batted just .252 with a single home run in August, is heating up, with four homers so far in September. Left fielder and Comeback of the Year candidate JD Martinez continues his career year, with a .302/.344/.483 slash line over the past 30 days.

Scherzer's the only starter with over 15 innings pitched with an ERA below 4.00 (3.32). Primary middle relievers Blaine Hardy, Phil Coke, and Al Albuquerque have pitched 40.1 innings over 37 games, with a 1.56 ERA.

Who's Not? Sanchez is hurt, and the ERAs for Porcello (4.13), Price (4.31), and Verlander (6.64) are all bad, though again, their component stats suggest they've been better than that. Rookie starter Robbie Ray as lasted only 11.1 inning in three starts and his ERA is legitimately bad, 10.32. Middle reliever Joba Chamberlain's compiled a 5.79 ERA over the past 30 days and closer Joe Nathan continues to make things way too exciting, allowing over two baserunners per inning pitched, including eight walks in 9.1 innings. Center fielder Ezequiel Carrera has been punchless over the last 30 days, with a .239/.271/.326 slash line, as has been shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.238/.297/.298).  

What's the Outlook? It seems to me that the pitchers are going to improve over the remaining games this year. Is it too late? The Tigers have 13 home games and six on the road remaining. The Royals have ten at home and ten on the road. So that's an advantage for Detroit. The Tigers have ten games against weak clubs (seven against Minnesota, three against the White Sox) and the Royals have eleven (four with Boston, seven with Chicago). And the two teams have three games against each other in each team's ballpark. It could come down to that. It's really hard to imagine the Tigers missing the postseason, but it seems that the key may be more catching the Mariners for the second wild card than passing Kansas City. 

Trailing 30 - September 7

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Check out the records of the Angels and Cardinals on one hand, Oakland and Milwaukee on the other. This is how leads go away.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles      19-8     1. Washington      17-10       

2. Kansas City      18-9     2. St. Louis       17-12        

   Seattle          18-9     3. San Francisco   15-11         

4. Cleveland        16-9     4. Atlanta         16-12   

5. Baltimore       17-10     5. LA, Phi         14-12        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Texas            8-20     1. Cincinnati       8-19      

2. Chicago          8-17     2. Arizona         10-17       

3. Minnesota       10-19     3. Milwaukee       11-16      

4. Oakland         10-17     4. Pittsburgh      12-15
5. Toronto         11-14     5. Col, NY         13-14

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Abreu, Chi       .400     1. Jay, SL          .405        

2. V Martinez, Det  .375     2. Posey, SF        .385      

3. Altuve, Hou      .364     3. Yelich, Fla      .370           

4. Martin, Tex      .344     4. Panik, SF        .365          

5. Santana, Min     .341     5. Crawford, LA     .364       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Singleton, Hou   .160     1. Gregorius, SD    .136          

2. Walters, Cle     .171     2. Baez, Chi        .161       

3. Middlebrooks, Bos.180     3. Granderson, NY   .167
4. Dominguez, Hou   .183     4. Alcantara, Chi   .182           

5. Moss, Oak        .188     5. Puig, LA         .188      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. V Martinez, Det  .481     1. Jay, SL          .495           

2. Abreu, Chi       .465     2. Werth, Was       .477          

3. Ortiz, Bos       .440     3. Freeman, Atl     .455         

4. Beltre, Tex      .435     4. Yelich, Fla      .444          

5. Mauer, Min       .413     5. Stanton, Fla     .438       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Carter, Hou      .634     1. Posey, SF        .683         

2. V Martinez, Det  .616     2. Stanton, Fla     .629     

3. Ortiz, Bos       .598     3. Dickerson, Col   .615       

4. Gordon, KC       .590     4. Gonzalez, LA     .596       

5. Prado, NY        .563     5. Werth, Was       .588        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Carter, Hou        12     1. Stanton, Fla        9
2. Gordon, KC          9        Dickerson, Col      9        

3. Bautista, Tor       8     3. 4 with              7

   Davis, Bal          8        
5. 3 with              7        
        
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Santana, Min       24     1. Posey, SF          22        

2. V Martinez, Det    23        Rendon, Was        22     

3. Holt, Bos          22     3. Dickerson, Col     21
4. Gordon, KC         21        Yelich, Fla        21
5. 4 with             20     5. 2 with             20

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Carter, Hou        28     1. Stanton, Fla       28        

   V Martinez, Det    28     2. Upton, Ari         27      

3. Cespedes, Bos      27     3. Dickerson, Col     24       

4. Vargas, Min        25     4. Holliday, SL       23
5. Longoria, TB       24     5. Posey, SF          22
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Dyson, KC          11     1. Hamilton, Cin      12            

2. Schafer, Min        9        Revere, Phi        12     

3. Cain, KC            8     3. Crawford, LA        8   

   Ellsbury, NY        8        Inciarte, Ari       8
5. Kipnis, Cle         7     5. Gordon, LA          7

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Rodney, Sea        12     1. Kimbrel, Atl       11

2. Holland, KC        10     2. Jansen, LA          9

3. Britton, Bal        9        Rondon, Chi         9
4. Street, LA          7     4. Papelbon, Phi       8

5. Nathan, Det         6        Rosenthal, SL       8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Carrasco, Cle    0.90     1. Peavy, SF        1.04

2. Cobb, TB         0.96     2. Cosart, Fla      1.27

3. Smyly, TB        1.28     3. Kershaw, LA      1.32

4. Shoemaker, LA    1.31     4. Volquez, Pit     1.69

5. Paxton, Sea      1.47     5. Fiers, Mil       1.94

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Kazmir, Oak      7.42     1. Lyles, Col       6.04

2. Webster, Bos     6.40     2. Harang, Atl      5.77

3. Danks, Chi       6.11     3. Vogelsong, SF    5.40

4. Nolasco, Min     5.76     4. Simon, Cin       5.40

5. Happ, Tor        5.72     5. Lackey, SL       5.30

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Smyly, TB        0.69     1. Fiers, Mil       0.74

2. Carrasco, Cle    0.78     2. Kershaw, LA      0.76
3. Shoemaker, LA    0.79     3. Nuno, Ari        0.80

4. Tillman, Bal     0.79     4. Bumgarner, SF    0.84
5. Duffy, KC        0.91     5. Wood, Atl        0.92

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Scherzer, Det      55     1. Bumgarner, SF      46      

2. Kluber, Cle        46        Fiers, Mil         46

3. Sale, Chi          45     3. Burnett, Phi       45

4. Price, Det         44        Strasburg, Was     45

5. Samardzija, Oak    41     5. Cueto, Cin         41

Flyover: Cleveland Indians

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Here are two things that you may have forgotten or not known: The Cleveland Indians made the postseason last year (like the other Ohio team, the Reds, they were eliminated in the one-game wild card coin flip game), and are only 4.5 games out of the wild card this year. At this point in the year, maybe I shouldn't be saying "only," but they have to get past only one team to catch the Mariners. This even though their best hitter last year, Carlos Santana, was batting .159 with a .301 slugging percentage at the end of May (.258 and .493 since); last year's ace, Justin Masterson, was terrible (5.51 ERA, 56 walks in 98 innings) before he got traded to St. Louis at the trade deadline (where he's been even worse); and slugger/spokesman/mascot Nick Swisher was having a terrible year (.208/.278/.331) when he was shut down last month for surgery on both knees. Starter Corey Kluber (14-9, 2.47 ERA, 223 strikeouts in 204.3 innings) and left fielder Michael Brantley (.315/.372/.496 slash line, top 10 in the league in all three categories, 19-1 as a basestealer) have emerged as stars, and manager Terry Francona probably deserves credit as well.  

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 16-9. They and the 18-9 Royals are the only teams in the Central division over .500. They've allowed 3.24 runs per game, the fourth fewest in the league, but they've scored only 3.60 runs per game, also the fourth fewest. 

What's Going Right? You can guess from the runs per game breakdown that the pitching's been pretty good. The starters have a sparkling 2.07 ERA over the past 30 days, best in the league, and they're striking out 26% of the batters they face, also the best. The bullpen's 3.26 ERA is more middle-of-the-pack, but still better than the league average of 3.47. Nothing screams out "good luck." Two of the things I always check are batting average on balls in play (that is, all batted balls except over-the-fence home runs) and percentage of fly balls that are home runs. In both stats, numbers well above league averages may indicate bad luck, and numbers well below league averages may indicate good luck--large variations from the norm just don't persist. Well, the Indians, over the past 30 days, have a batting average on balls in play of .292 and have allowed home runs on 9.0% of fly balls. The former's right at the league average and the latter's somewhat above. Not a lot to suggest that the Indians aren't, in fact, a good team on the mound. They also exemplify the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, only 48% of Indians' pitchers strikes have been in the strike zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league, but they've been successful because they've induced swings on 33% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second highest total of the year. 

What's Going Wrong? It's hard to point to any factors behind the team's inability to score runs. Nothing jumps out a lot concerning luck. They haven't hit a lot of home runs, going deep on just 1.8% of plate appearances, fourth fewest in the league. It's not that their offensive numbers are good--they're eighth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage over the past 30 days--but those components don't add up to being twelfth in runs per game. There are a couple advanced metrics that suggest the Indians hitters haven't been particularly clutch, and I'm inclined to think that's been the case. This isn't an offensive juggernaut, but the team should score more runs than they have lately. 

Who's Hot? Jose Ramirez took over at shortstop from Asdrubal Cabrera after the Indians traded the pending free agent to the Nationals at the trade deadline. Over the past 30 days, Ramirez has led the team in batting (.315) and on base percentage (.358) and is second in slugging (.449). It's tempting to look at a 21-year-old rookie middle infielder putting up good offensive numbers and think, "fluke," but Ramirez hit .306 with a .355 on base percentage in 291 minor league games. Brantley's cooled down but still was among team leaders in most offensive categories over the past 30 days, and Santana's flashed power, leading the team with five homers and 19 RBI. He's also an on-base machine, drawing walks in 16% of plate appearances. 

Over the past 30 days, Kluber has a 2.09 ERA--and that's only third best on the staff. Carlos Carrasco is 3-0 over five starts, 0.90 ERA, 34 strikeouts and four walks over 30 innings. Danny Salazar, who was so lost this year (5.53 ERA through May) that he was sent down to AAA until after the All-Star Break, is 2-1, 1.08 ERA, 24 baserunners and 23 strikeouts over 25 innings. Middle relievers Brian Shaw and Scott Atchison have combined for a 0.55 ERA in 33 innings spread over 32 appearances. 

Who's Not? Second baseman Jason Kipnis has had a tough past 30 days, batting just .240 with only five extra base hits, all doubles. That's a .288 slugging percentage. DH Zach Walters, who came over in the Cabrera trade, leads the team with six homers but that's about all he's done: he has only seven other base hits, good for a .171 batting average and .232 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? The Indians are a decent team with a promising young pitching staff. Atchison's the only hurler in his 30s. I have an affinity for small-market, low-payroll (their $83 million estimated payroll is fifth lowest in the league) clubs, and there is no announcer more animated than their radio play-by-play man, Tom Hamilton. The Indians appear to be too far back to make a run for the postseason this year, but it's good to see them still in contention.

Flyover: Cincinnati Reds

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs last year as a wild card (eliminated in the coin flip game by the Pirates) and were picked by some to win the division this year. No such luck. With star first baseman Joey Votto injured most of the year, second baseman Brandon Phillips having his worst season as a Red and looking old at 33, and right fielder Jay Bruce having the worst year of his career, the Reds are scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the National League, betraying a pitching staff that has a better-than-average 3.57 ERA. The only above-average hitters have been third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Rookie center fielder/speedster Billy Hamilton has been OK with the bat and better than expected in the field, but he has somehow manged to steal only 72% of the bases he's attempted to swipe, exactly equal to the league average. Fastest player in baseball, maybe ever, and he's only an average base stealer. At least the team's other speedster, flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman, has been ridiculous: 87 strikeouts in 44.1 innings, striking out 52% of the batter's he's faced (nobody's close), only pitcher with an average fastball velocity in excess of 100 mph. The Reds have fourth place in the NL Central pretty much locked in.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds have the worst record in the National League, 9-18, over the last 30 days. The pitching's been bad, especially the bullpen, and the offense has been terrible. Well, it's not like they're playing for the postseason.

What's Going Right? Um. Well. They lead the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days. The pitchers are second in strikeouts. I'm behind writing these or I'd dig up something else. Nothing jumps out. The team has been pretty bad lately. Say this about the offense: the Reds are batting .259 on balls in play over the past 30 days. That's last in the league, by far, way below the league average of .301, suggesting that there's a large dollup of bad luck in their hitting numbers. Batting averages on balls in play don't generally don't persist at the extremes.

What's Going Wrong? This is a much longer list. They're last in batting average (.220), last in on base percentage (.280), second to last in slugging (.332) over the past 30 days. The pitchers are third in walk rate overall, and the relievers have walked 12% of the batters they've faced, by far the most in the league. Remember the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. About 48% of Reds relievers' pitchers are in the strike zone (throwing strikes), league average, but they're inducing swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (getting strikes), last in the league. 

Who's Hot? Over the past 30 days, the average National League hitter--this is the league where pitchers hit, remember--is batting .252 with a .314 on base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. There isn't a single Reds batter who's exceeded those figures. Mesoraco's led the team with a .348 on base percentage and a .432 slugging percentage, but as you can see, that's nothing all that special.

All-Star starter Johnny Cueto's been pretty good over the past 30 days, 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA, and starter Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with a 2-1 record. Other than strikeouts (18 in 9 innings), Chapman's had a just OK record (4.00 ERA). He and setup man Jumbo Diaz are the only relievers with nine or more innings pitched over the past month. 

Who's Not? Phillips has had a terrible time at the plate over the past 30 days, batting just .138 with a .194 on base percentage and a .172 slugging percentage. Bruce's slash line is .202/.242/.340 and he's struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Left fielder Ryan Ludwick's slash line is .179/.238/.321. 

What's the Outlook? This is the shortest if these team reports I've written. It's partly because there aren't very many Reds who have been exceptionally good or bad. But mostly, it's because this is an unexciting team. They're clearly playing out the string.

Flyover: Chicago Cubs

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Nobody expected much of the Chicago Cubs this year, as they were widely viewed as still in the midst of a multi-year rebuilding effort under team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer. The team was in last in the NL Central on July 5 when it traded arguably its two best starting pitchers, Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, to Oakland for two minor leaguers, a pitcher whom they sent to the minors, and a player to be named later. They subsequently traded their starting second baseman, Darwin Barney, to the Dodgers and center fielder Emilio Bonifacio reliever James Russell to the Braves before the trade deadline, receiving two more minor leaguers. The Cubs released right fielder Nate Schierholtz on August 13; he signed with the Nationals five days later. Having cleared several veterans from the roster, the Cubs have called up several of their highly-touted young players, including center fielder Arismendy Alcantara, second baseman Javier Baez, and right fielder Jorge Soler, giving them an extended major league audition.

How Are They Doing Lately? Surprisingly well. Since going all-in on the youth movement, the Cubs are 16-13 over the past 30 days, the second-best record in the National League. People are talking about the Cubs as contenders in 2015. With several other top prospects in the minors (Baseball Prospectus ranked the Cubs' farm system second in the majors before the season) the outlook for the Cubs is finally brightening.

What's Going Right? The Cubs' starting pitchers have a subpar 3.95 ERA over the past 30 days, but that drops to 3.43, below the league average of 3.70, without Edwin Jackson, who's having a terrible year (6.09 ERA, the worst in the league by over a run) and is now on the disabled list. The relievers' 2.85 is fourth in the league. Cubs pitchers have walked less than 7% of opposing batters, the third fewest in the league, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0, fourth highest in the league. On offense, Cubs batters have hit a lot of home runs (40, second in the league). 

What's Going Wrong? The offense reflects the team's youth. Those home runs have been accompanied by a swing-at-anything approach at the plate; the Cubs have swung at 33% of pitches outside the strike zone in the past 30 days, second most in the league, but made contact on only 55% of those outside-the-zone swings, lowest in the league. On pitches in the strike zone, their 86% contact rate is second lowest in the league. This has resulted in walks in just 6% of plate appearances, second lowest in the league, and strikeouts in 27% of plate appearances, by far the most.  They've gotten home runs on 15% of fly balls, second in the league, and that's probably unsustainably high, given the league average of 10%. They haven't stolen a lot of bases--nine over the past 30 days, third fewest in the league--but they've managed to get caught stealing ten times, second-most. The team batting average over the past month is .239, fifth lowest in the league, and its .291 on base percentage is third lowest, given the lack of walks. The homers have kept the Cubs' slugging percentage and runs scored around league averages. 

Just as the hitters have been getting home runs at a rate that may not be sustainable, the pitchers have been unusually good at preventing them. Just under 8% of fly balls allowed by Cubs pitchers have cleared the fence over the past month. That percentage is likely to rise, given the league average of 10%, though the Cubs have been good at keeping the ball in the park all year.

Who's Hot? Shortstop Starlin Castro, perhaps hearing the footsteps of a stable of shortstops in the Cubs' farm system, has a .363/.396/.505 slash line, making him easily the Cubs' best hitter over the past 30 days. Rookie second baseman Baez is tied for team lead in homers with seven and leads with 14 runs and 14 RBI. Rookie center fielder Alcantara is second in homers with five and is second in runs with 12 and fourth in RBI with 11. (But keep reading about the kids.) Soler has played in only five games but in them he has three singles, four doubles, and three homers over 19 at bats. I'm guessing he doesn't maintain his .526/.550/1.121 slash line. Third baseman Luis Valbeuna has seven homers.

Starters Kyle Hendricks (3-0, 1.78 ERA over five starts) and Tsuyoshi Wada (3-1, 2.40 ERA over five starts) have been good over the past 30 days, but the bullpen has been the  team's pitching strength. Setup men Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop, and Wesley Wright have combined for 1.56 ERA and 46 strikeouts over their last 46 innings, and closer Hector Rondon has nine saves and a 0.69 ERA, allowing only nine hits and no walks in 13 innings pitched.

Who's Not? Baez has walked in just 3% of plate appearances and struck out in 42%. He has easily the highest strikeout rate in the majors and the second-lowest walk-to-strikeout rate in the National League. Over the past 30 days, National League batters--remember, this includes pitchers--have walked in 7.7% of plate appearances and struck out in 21.0%. Among regulars (75 or more plate appearances), Alcantara, Baez, Castro, and catcher Wellington Castillo are all walking at a below-average clip, and only Castro and outfielder Chris Coghlan are striking out at a below-average rate.

Returning to Baez: He's struck out 50 times in 120 plate appearances over his last 30 games. As Sam Miller pointed out in the Effectively Wild podcast, in 1988, Tony Gwynn struck out 40 games. All season. And that was the most strikeouts he ever had in a year. Baez has swung at 42% of pitches outside the strike zone compared to a league average of 31%, so pitchers are throwing strikes to him on only 40% of pitches compared to a league average of 49%. Still, the power--for a middle infielder!--is undeniable.

Among the pitchers, the aforementioned Jackson has had a terrible year. Jake Arrieta has had a bad stretch, going 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA over the past 30 days, but his line indicates that he's probably been unlucky as much as anything.

What's the Outlook? This is a last place team, but a fun one, as Cubs fans are going to be watching a lot of highly-touted youngsters over the remainder of the season, and a lot of strikeouts. That's OK. They have talented players getting playing time, and they're setting up for better times in years ahead. It's a shame that they play in what has become arguably the best division in baseball.

There Is No Parity Between the Leagues

Over the weekend there was an article in the weekend Wall Street Journal (may be behind a paywall) pointing out that the American League has prevailed in interleague games for ten straight years and appears certain to do so this year as well. In seeking to explain it, the Journal points to the designated hitter:

Because of the DH, AL teams can more easily acquire offensive-minded players without worrying about their negative impact on defense.

That's true, but let me add a couple other factors. First, the presence of a DH allows American League teams to sign long-term contracts to free agent hitters who, by the time their contract expires, probably won't be suited to play in the field. Albert Pujols is the Angels' first baseman. He is 34 and under contract through 2021. Prince Fielder, until a season-ending injury, was the Rangers' first baseman. He is 30 and under contract through 2020. Do you think Albert Pujols will be a first baseman when he's 41, or Prince Fielder when he's 36, especially since both players have battled injuries in recent years? Or consider the past winter's marquee free agent, Robinson Cano. He's 31 and plays second for the Mariners. Plays it well, I might add--he ranks highly in both traditional and advanced fielding metrics. But he's also signed through 2023, when he'll be 40. Doesn't it seem likely that by then he'll be at least a part-time DH by then? National League teams can't sign batters to those kind of contracts, because by the end of the contract, there won't be anywhere on the field to play them. Fine with us, fans of National League teams might say, given that paying Pujols $30 million in 2021, or Fielder $24 million in 2020, or Cano $24 million in 2023, is likely a money-losing proposition in terms of return on investment. But in avoiding those high-cost out years, National League teams are missing out on the near-term years when the players are good. That tilts the balance of power to the American League.

Here's another, mundane reason: The average American League payroll is $109.8 million. The average National League payroll is $104.9 million. (Both figures from baseball-reference.com) Might it be that the American League is better because they pay more and therefore get better players? And before you can say "Red Sox and Yankees," if you exclude those two teams from the AL totals and the Dodgers from the NL, American League teams still have a higher average payroll, $98.9 million to $97.2 million.