Next Up: The Cleveland Indians

Interleague play continues, with the Pirates hosting the Cleveland Indians for a three-game holiday weekend series at PNC Park. I noted this in my preview of the team's series against the Tigers:

Well, the Pirates' strategy is pretty obvious. Score runs against the Tigers pitching. The problem is, over the last 30 days, the Pirates have scored the third-fewest runs in the National League, with the fewest home runs and the lowest slugging percentage. It's time for the Pirates to start hitting.

I'd say sweeping the three games in Detroit while scoring 22 runs counts fills the bill.

It won't be as easy to score against Cleveland, as I'll discuss below. But let's talk for a minute about the American League Central, whom the Pirates (and the other NL Central teams) play in interleague games. So far, the Pirates have played six games against the Tigers (going 4-2), four against the White Sox (4-0), and two against the Twins (0-2). After this series with the Indians, the Bucs have three games in Kansas City and two in Minnesota later this month, wrapping up their interleague games. Earlier this year, Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece at FanGraphs entitled, "The American League Has Gone Completely Bananas." He looked at the performance of the American Leagues compared to their projections, noting:

Of the eight teams projected to finish over .500, just three are currently over .500, and the overall average winning percentage is .475. Of the seven teams projected to finish under .500, just two are currently under .500, and the overall average winning percentage is .539.

Sullivan wrote this on June 5. As of this morning, there are still just three teams AL that FanGraphs projected to play over .500 ball that are, in fact, over .500: The Angels, Blue Jays, and Yankees. And now only one team projected below .500 is currently below .500: the White Sox. It's been an amazingly topsy-turvy year in the American League. If the season were to end today, the playoff teams would be Baltimore (projected by FanGraphs to finish 79-83), Houston (79-83), Kansas City (78-84), Minnesota (74-88), and New York (82-80). And FanGraphs wasn't a weird outlier; every prediction I track (mine, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN) projected losing seasons for the Orioles, Astros, Royals, and Twins. For good measure, Baseball Prospectus expected the Yankees to be a losing team (79-83) as well. Pretty crazy.

No division illustrates this better than the American League Central. The Tigers, who've won the division four years in a row, were heavily favored to run the streak to five. They're at .500. The Indians, after two straight winning seasons under manager Terry Francona, were seen by some as likely to challenge Detroit. They're 37-41. The White Sox, after a flurry of winter trades, were positioned for a big improvement. They have a the worst record in the American League. The Royals, despite coming within a game of being World Champions, seemed likely to slide back. They lead the division and have the third-best record in the majors. The Twins, declared by me as a lock for last place, are in second and presently hold the second wild card. The division, it seems, consists of three big disappointments and two big surprises.

That's all a very long-winded way of saying that now the Pirates face the expected-to-be-good-but-aren't-so-far Cleveland Indians.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Indians are 12-15, tied with the Mariners for the fifth-worst record in the American League. They've scored 3.3 runs per game, the fourth fewest in the league, and allowed 4.30, the fourth most. Their pitchers have struck out 24% of the batters they've faced, which is a good idea, as the Indians' defense, probably the worst in baseball last season, has improved all the way to "bad" this year, so all those strikeouts keep the ball out of the fielder's hands.

What's Going Right? As noted, their pitchers strike out a lot of batters. Their 24% strikeout rate over the past 30 days is the best in the league. That's good. 

What's Going Wrong? Despite the gaudy K numbers, Indians starters have an ERA of 4.14 over the last 30 days, sixth highest in the league. The relievers' ERA of 3.13 is better, sixth in the league. The problem's been that 30% of the baserunners Indians pitchers allow come around to score, the most in the league. Maybe that's bad luck in terms of when hits fall in, but the team's 70% strand rate, as it's called, has led to a lot of runs allowed. Indians relievers get ground balls on only 39% of balls in play, the second lowest amount in the league over the last 30 days, and the starters' 41% rate is third lowest. The starters combine a lower-than-average rate of ground balls with a higher-than-average rate of fly balls going over the fence, resulting in the fourth-highest rate of homers per game (1.07) in the American League. So to summarize: The Indians don't generate a lot of ground balls, and when opponents hit the ball in the air, it goes over the fence a lot for the starters. That, combined with the lowest proportion of baserunners left stranded on base in the league, has resulted in too many runs scored.

On offense, nothing really stands out as being bad; they're just across-the-board mediocre: Eighth in the league in batting average and on base percentage and twelfth in slugging percentage, tied with the Mariners for the fewest home runs in the league over the last 30 days. 

Who's Hot? Second baseman Jason Kipnis has been the Indians' star all year. The league's Player of the Month for May, he's batting .376 with a .453 on base percentage and .505 slugging percentage over the last 30 days. He leads the American League in batting and hits and is second in on base percentage. Outfielder-DH David Murphy's recovered from a slow start and has a .345/.387/.564 slash line over the past 30 days. Right fielder Brandon Moss has been the team's main source of power during the period, with four homers, but he's batting just .194 with a .282 on base percentage.

The Pirates will avoid two of the Tigers' best starting pitchers: Defending Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, who came within an out of a no-hitter in his last start. Saturday's starter, rookie Cody Anderson, has allowed just one run over 15.2 innings in his first two major league starts, though his lack of strikeouts (six to date) indicate he may not be as good as his 0.57 ERA might indicate. The Indian's top three relievers have been super over the last 30 days. Bryan Shaw has a 0.87 ERA, Zach McAllister's is 2.61, and closer Cody Allen has been pretty untouchable: five hits, two walks, no runs, and an are-you-kidding-me 21 strikeouts over his last 10.2 innings. Batters have swung and missed at 23% of the curveballs he's thrown this season, though his primary pitch is a somewhat more hitable fastball.

Who's Not? Tonight's Indians starter, Trevor Bauer, has a 6.26 ERA over his last five starts. In the bullpen, Francona has a couple lefties whom he uses mostly in platoon situations, and both have been shaky over the last 30 days: Nick Hagadone (ten games, 6.1 innings) has a 5.68 ERA and Mark Rzepczynski (aka "Scrabble," 10 games, 3.1 innings) has a 5.40 ERA. Rookie shortstop Francisco Lindor, just 21, was called up in June, and wowed with his glove but is hitting only .226/.269/.290. First baseman Carlos Santana's been barely better, .182/.283/.333, and shortstop/third baseman/outfielder Mike Aviles rounds out a pretty weak-hitting infield (other than Kipnis) at .232/.274/.290. But the biggest problem on offense has been free agent bust/center fielder Michael Bourn, who's hitting .190/.239/.206--eleven singles, one double, four walks and 21 strikeouts over 63 at bats. The Indians are on the hook with him for $14 million next year, and, if he gets 550 plate appearances in 2016, another $12 million in 2017.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are probably going to swing and miss against the Indians' pitching staff, but they should fare OK if they keep the Indians off the board and build up a lead. If they're trailing in the late innings, they're in trouble given the strength of the back end of the Tribe's bullpen.

Flyover: Cleveland Indians

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Here are two things that you may have forgotten or not known: The Cleveland Indians made the postseason last year (like the other Ohio team, the Reds, they were eliminated in the one-game wild card coin flip game), and are only 4.5 games out of the wild card this year. At this point in the year, maybe I shouldn't be saying "only," but they have to get past only one team to catch the Mariners. This even though their best hitter last year, Carlos Santana, was batting .159 with a .301 slugging percentage at the end of May (.258 and .493 since); last year's ace, Justin Masterson, was terrible (5.51 ERA, 56 walks in 98 innings) before he got traded to St. Louis at the trade deadline (where he's been even worse); and slugger/spokesman/mascot Nick Swisher was having a terrible year (.208/.278/.331) when he was shut down last month for surgery on both knees. Starter Corey Kluber (14-9, 2.47 ERA, 223 strikeouts in 204.3 innings) and left fielder Michael Brantley (.315/.372/.496 slash line, top 10 in the league in all three categories, 19-1 as a basestealer) have emerged as stars, and manager Terry Francona probably deserves credit as well.  

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 16-9. They and the 18-9 Royals are the only teams in the Central division over .500. They've allowed 3.24 runs per game, the fourth fewest in the league, but they've scored only 3.60 runs per game, also the fourth fewest. 

What's Going Right? You can guess from the runs per game breakdown that the pitching's been pretty good. The starters have a sparkling 2.07 ERA over the past 30 days, best in the league, and they're striking out 26% of the batters they face, also the best. The bullpen's 3.26 ERA is more middle-of-the-pack, but still better than the league average of 3.47. Nothing screams out "good luck." Two of the things I always check are batting average on balls in play (that is, all batted balls except over-the-fence home runs) and percentage of fly balls that are home runs. In both stats, numbers well above league averages may indicate bad luck, and numbers well below league averages may indicate good luck--large variations from the norm just don't persist. Well, the Indians, over the past 30 days, have a batting average on balls in play of .292 and have allowed home runs on 9.0% of fly balls. The former's right at the league average and the latter's somewhat above. Not a lot to suggest that the Indians aren't, in fact, a good team on the mound. They also exemplify the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, only 48% of Indians' pitchers strikes have been in the strike zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league, but they've been successful because they've induced swings on 33% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second highest total of the year. 

What's Going Wrong? It's hard to point to any factors behind the team's inability to score runs. Nothing jumps out a lot concerning luck. They haven't hit a lot of home runs, going deep on just 1.8% of plate appearances, fourth fewest in the league. It's not that their offensive numbers are good--they're eighth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage over the past 30 days--but those components don't add up to being twelfth in runs per game. There are a couple advanced metrics that suggest the Indians hitters haven't been particularly clutch, and I'm inclined to think that's been the case. This isn't an offensive juggernaut, but the team should score more runs than they have lately. 

Who's Hot? Jose Ramirez took over at shortstop from Asdrubal Cabrera after the Indians traded the pending free agent to the Nationals at the trade deadline. Over the past 30 days, Ramirez has led the team in batting (.315) and on base percentage (.358) and is second in slugging (.449). It's tempting to look at a 21-year-old rookie middle infielder putting up good offensive numbers and think, "fluke," but Ramirez hit .306 with a .355 on base percentage in 291 minor league games. Brantley's cooled down but still was among team leaders in most offensive categories over the past 30 days, and Santana's flashed power, leading the team with five homers and 19 RBI. He's also an on-base machine, drawing walks in 16% of plate appearances. 

Over the past 30 days, Kluber has a 2.09 ERA--and that's only third best on the staff. Carlos Carrasco is 3-0 over five starts, 0.90 ERA, 34 strikeouts and four walks over 30 innings. Danny Salazar, who was so lost this year (5.53 ERA through May) that he was sent down to AAA until after the All-Star Break, is 2-1, 1.08 ERA, 24 baserunners and 23 strikeouts over 25 innings. Middle relievers Brian Shaw and Scott Atchison have combined for a 0.55 ERA in 33 innings spread over 32 appearances. 

Who's Not? Second baseman Jason Kipnis has had a tough past 30 days, batting just .240 with only five extra base hits, all doubles. That's a .288 slugging percentage. DH Zach Walters, who came over in the Cabrera trade, leads the team with six homers but that's about all he's done: he has only seven other base hits, good for a .171 batting average and .232 on base percentage. 

What's the Outlook? The Indians are a decent team with a promising young pitching staff. Atchison's the only hurler in his 30s. I have an affinity for small-market, low-payroll (their $83 million estimated payroll is fifth lowest in the league) clubs, and there is no announcer more animated than their radio play-by-play man, Tom Hamilton. The Indians appear to be too far back to make a run for the postseason this year, but it's good to see them still in contention.