ROY

This is a bumper year for rookies in the National League, right? Third baseman Maikel Franko's been a bright spot for a bad Phillies club. Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard has Citi Field fans wearing Thor outfits to his starts. Randal Grichuk has emerged a stalwart for the Cardinals, putting up the team's best hitting numbers while playing all three outfield positions. And, of course, the two shining stars have been Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson--both All-Stars, both Home Run Derby competitors. The National League Rookie of the Year award is a two-horse race between that duo.

That is SO June.

Here are Bryant and Pederson through June 30:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Kris Bryant	247	41	68	13	2	10	43	40	87	6	2	.275	.381	.466	.847	+2.7
Joc Pederson	262	45	64	12	1	20	38	55	94	2	5	.244	.384	.527	.911	+1.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

(WPA, as I explained in this article, is a measure of clutch hitting, reflecting the cumultative increase in expected winning percentage the player added on offense.)

And here they are since:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Kris Bryant	113	15	21	4	2	4	18	17	44	5	1	.186	.304	.363	.667	+0.6
Joc Pederson	103	8	27	6	0	1	5	11	36	0	1	.165	.265	.252	.517	-0.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Bryant has fallen off the table, while Pederson's been one of the worst hitters in the league. His .517 OPS since the end of June is worse than the full-year OPS of his teammate Zack Greinke (.531) who is, of course, a pitcher. The two young stars' declines has created a more wide-open National League Rookie of the Year race.

Here is a list of the leading National League rookie hitters with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, ranked by OPS+, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to 100 (i.e., 100 = league average):

Rk	Player	OPS+	Tm	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Randal Grichuk	146	STL	261	40	75	20	7	14	43	16	87	4	1	.287	.335	.579	.913	LF
2	Matt Duffy	129	SFG	352	48	109	20	4	9	51	16	63	5	0	.310	.348	.466	.814	3B
3	Maikel Franco	128	PHI	284	42	80	21	1	12	47	24	48	1	0	.282	.343	.489	.832	3B
4	Jung Ho Kang	126	PIT	293	40	86	17	2	8	35	21	66	5	3	.294	.366	.447	.813	3B/SS
5	Joc Pederson	122	LAD	365	53	81	18	1	21	43	66	130	2	6	.222	.352	.449	.802	CF
6	Kris Bryant	119	CHC	360	56	89	17	4	14	61	57	131	11	3	.247	.357	.433	.790	3B
7	Yasmany Tomas	106	ARI	312	32	93	17	2	6	39	14	81	5	2	.298	.331	.423	.754	RF/3B
8	Odubel Herrera	104	PHI	318	41	91	22	3	5	29	12	77	9	4	.286	.317	.421	.739	CF
9	Jorge Soler	98	CHC	297	30	80	18	1	5	34	24	99	3	1	.269	.326	.387	.713	RF
10	J.T. Realmuto	82	MIA	297	32	73	15	5	6	29	12	48	4	3	.246	.276	.391	.666	C

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/8/2015.

Not so much a Bryant/Pederson duopoly anymore, is it? Of particular note to Pirates fans, consider Jung Ho Kang. The signing of the Korean Baseball Organization star was a head-scratcher, given that :

1. No batter has ever gone from the KBO to the majors. (There have been Korean-born major leaguers, but every hitter was drafted by an MLB team.)
2. His Playstation-like numbers from last year with the Nexen Heroes (.356/.459/.739 slash line, 40 homers and 117 runs batted in during 117 games played) were the product (by the league's admission) of a juiced ball. 
3. He was a shortstop in Korea, but the Pirates already had Jordy Mercer well-established there.
4. He has the arm to play third, but the Pirates had last year's breakout star, Josh Harrison, ensconced there. 

All told, his four-year, $10.75 million contract (with a $5.5 million team option for a fifth year), on top of the $5 million posting fee the Pirates paid to Nexen for the right to negotiate with Kang, seemed out of place for the low-budget Pirates. Where would he play? How likely was it that he could hit?

At this point, I think we can safely say three things about Kang:

1. He has absolutely been a lifesaver for the Pirates. He played a fair amount of shortstop early in the season, as Mercer struggled to get his batting average above .200. (He didn't get there until June.) Then he took over third when Harrison had thumb surgery on July 6. And when Mercer sprained his knee on July 19, Kang became the everyday shortstop.
2. He's been one of the Pirates' best players. Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus all rate him as the Pirates' second best position player (after Andrew McCutchen) in overall value.
3. As the table above indicates, he's a Rookie of the Year candidate. He's third in batting, first in on base percentage, and fifth in slugging among rookie hitters, all while playing a more important defensive position, and playing it well, than most.

If the season ended today, I'd expect Bryant to win Rookie of the Year. But the season isn't ending today. There's still time for the surprising Kang (check out the graphs in this article) to make up more ground.

Next Up: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Pirates have 23 games remaining in August. Only three--a three-game series in St. Louis starting Tuesday--are against National League Central opponents, but 13 are against the National League West, starting with a three-game series beginning Friday against the Dodgers. I'm going to be off the grid most of the weekend, so I'm going to hit it up now. The Pirates have a better record than the Dodgers (62-44 vs. 61-46) but while the Pirates trail the Cardinals by 5.5 games in the tough National League Central, the Dodgers have a two game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the National League West. The series in Pittsburgh begins with a marquee matchup of Gerrit Cole vs. Clayton Kershaw Friday night. The Pirates face two pitchers the Dodgers acquired at the trade deadline, Mat Latos and Alex Wood, on Saturday and Sunday.

Remember when nobody cared about the Pirates? The entire Dodgers series will be nationally televised. Friday's game will be on ESPN, Saturday afternoon's on Fox Sports 1, and Sunday evening's is the ESPN Game of the Week.

How Are They Doing Lately? At 14-9, the Dodgers are tied with the Phillies for the third-best record in the National League over the past 30 days. (The Pirates are half a game behind at 14-108) The Dodgers have scored only 3.8 runs per game, fifth fewest in the league over that span, while giving up 3.6, the fourth fewest. That run differential is more typical of a team that goes 12-11 over 23 games, not 14-9, so the Dodgers have been a little lucky to have that record. On the other hand, the Pirates have been outscored (106 scored, 115 allowed) over the past 30 days, so maybe both teams have had some fortune on their side.

What's Going Right? Dodgers starters, led by Kershaw and Zack Greinke, have a 2.43 ERA over the past 30 days, the best in the league. They have the second-highest strikeout rate, the third-lowest walk rate, the highest rate of ground balls and soft contact allowed and the lowest rate of hard contact allowed. They've allowed just five home runs over the past 30 days; no other team's allowed fewer than ten.  starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. On offense, the Dodgers have been OK (sixth in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage over the past 30 days). Nothing really stands out other than the lack of larceny, with only five stolen bases over the past 30 days, fewest in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The relievers have been as bad as the starters have been good. The bullpen ERA over the past 30 days is 5.83, more than 1.2 runs worse than the next-worse team. They've struck out a lot of batters and they don't walk an excessive number, but they've given up more homers than any other bullpen (13, eight more than the starters in about 60% fewer innings), they don't induce grounders (lowest ground ball rate in the league), and while they can pitch to the strike zone (third-highest pitched strike rate in the league), they're not fooling batters, who've swung at only 29% of their pitches outside the strike zone, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? The Dodgers offense has been led by two hitters over the past 30 days: First baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.305/.387/.537 slash line) and catcher Yasmani Grandal (.382/.460/.527). Over the last 30 days, Kershaw has given up no runs, one walk, and 16 hits over 34 innings while striking out 45. A bunch of starters that the Pirates won't face (Greinke, Brett Anderson, and the recently-demoted Mike Bolsinger) have also done well over the last 30 days. Of the starters they'll face, Latos, who pitched well in his first start for the Dodgers, has a 1.89 ERA over the past 30 days. Wood, who had a rocky first start, is at 4.85. He had a 3.17 ERA through the end of June, 5.06 since. In the bullpen, Pedro Baez has a 1.86 ERA over the last 30 days. 

Who's Not? The team's two most-watched young batters are right fielder Yasiel Puig and All-Star rookie center fielder Joc Pederson. Both have slumped over the last 30 days, with Puig hitting .200/.244/.400 and Pederson, who's struck out in a third of his plate appearances, .177/.286/.266. I noted Baez's nice relief ERA; he's the only Dodgers reliever with more than two innings pitched over the past 30 days with an ERA below 4.26. Closer Kenley Jansen has six saves in nine appearances and 16 strikeouts in just eight innings, but he's also given up three homers--that's as many as the three starters the Pirates will face have given up combined over the same period--and has a 5.63 ERA. 

What's the Outlook? Well, it's pretty obvious: To beat the Dodgers, you have to get to their bullpen. The problem is, to do that, you have to get by their starters. That's always going to be a challenge when Kershaw's on the mound. The Pirates' outlook improves after tomorrow night's game.

Yes, A.J. Burnett is Broken

Well, that may be my stupidest post of the year.

A week ago today, I asked whether A.J. Burnett was broken, as he'd given up as many earned runs in July as he had in any two prior months combined. My brilliant conclusion: 

Burnett's been throwing pretty much the same pitches, at the same velocities, to the same spots of late. However, he's facing tougher opponents than he did earlier in the year, and when batters make contact, they've been hitting the ball harder than in the past. There is also a fair amount of evidence that Burnett's been just unlucky of late, suggesting that he could rebound from his July performance.

So naturally, in his next start, three days later, he didn't make it out of the fifth inning, giving up ten hits and two walks in four and a third innings, charged with eight runs, seven of them earned. The next day, he was put on the disabled list with elbow inflammation. Today we learned that he has a strained flexor tendon, i.e. NOT the torn ulnar collateral ligament that necessitates Tommy John surgery, but still a serious injury, particularly for a guy who's 38. Burnett says that he's not going to go through surgery again, and if he can't come back this year, this is the end of the line for him.

Two thoughts. First, how did I manage to so thoroughly screw up my analysis? Well, as I noted, one of the markers for a physical problem is decreased velocity, and Burnett didn't show that...until his last start. Here's a graph showing his average velocity, by pitch type, for each of his starts in July, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Just focus on the solid lines. The velocities for his four-seam (straight) fastball (black line), sinking fastball (gray line), and curve ball (orange line) looked pretty consistent until the two fastballs fell off the table in his last start. He said that his elbow had been bothering him for a while, but also that he, like many pitchers, has dealt with elbow discomfort on and off throughout his career. Something clearly went south in that last start, and I had the misfortune of writing about Burnett shortly before.

Second, if this is the end of the road for Burnett, he'll retire with a 163-155 won-lost record and a 3.99 career ERA over 425 starts, during which he struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings and allowed 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Here is a list of pitchers with 400 or more starts with eight or more strikeouts per nine innings and one or fewer home runs per nine innings, ordered by career ERA:

Rk	Player	ERA	GS	SO/9	HR/9	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
1	Pedro Martinez	2.93	409	10.04	0.76	219	100	.687	2827.1	2221	1006	919	760	3154	154
2	Roger Clemens	3.12	707	8.55	0.66	354	184	.658	4916.2	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	143
3	Nolan Ryan	3.19	773	9.55	0.54	324	292	.526	5386.0	3923	2178	1911	2795	5714	112
4	Randy Johnson	3.29	603	10.61	0.89	303	166	.646	4135.1	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	135
5	Curt Schilling	3.46	436	8.60	0.96	216	146	.597	3261.0	2998	1318	1253	711	3116	127
6	David Cone	3.46	419	8.28	0.80	194	126	.606	2898.2	2504	1222	1115	1137	2668	121
7	A.J. Burnett	3.99	425	8.27	0.86	163	155	.513	2702.2	2490	1315	1198	1087	2484	103

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 8/3/2015.

Not a bad peer group. That's three current Hall of Famers, and at least two others who have the credentials, in my opinion. No, I'm not suggesting Burnett's as good as the other six; that 103 ERA+ means that his ERA over his career was only 3% better than league average, adjusted for home park, while all the others were a good deal better. But he's been a steady, durable above-average performer who had three of his best years while wearing a Pirates uniform.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Cubs haven't played the Pirates since the two teams met over ten dates in April and May, with the Cubs taking four. The last time they met was on May 17, at which time the Cubs were in second in the National League Central, while the Pirates were 18-20, tied with the Reds for third. Since that date, the Pirates have the best record in baseball, 43-23, while the Cubs are tied for sixth best, 36-31. So they've both played well, though the Pirates have played better. Entering play today, the Pirates are in line to be the National League's first wild card team. The Cubs, who've won five straight, are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild card, four behind the Pirates. It's not exactly the pennant drive, but the three games starting tonight at PNC Park could have post-season consequences.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-11 record, which is an unimpressive-sounding seventh best in the National League, but they're only percentage points behind the 14-10 Mets and Phillies (tied for fifth), a game behind the 16-10 Cardinals (fourth) and 15-9 Dodgers (third), and a game and a half behind the 16-9 Pirates (second) and 15-8 Giants (first). They've compiled a decent number of wins, though the presence of the Cardinals and Pirates ahead of them illustrates how tough the National League Central is this year. They've scored 3.7 runs per game over the period, the fifth fewest in the league, while giving up 3.9 runs per game, the sixth most. Does that sound lucky, a winning record despite giving up more than they've scored? Well, it is, but they're not alone: The Pirates have scored 4.3 and given up 4.4 over the past 30 days. So neither team has played as well as its record would indicate. The Cubs made a couple minor deals at the trade deadline, adding starter Dan Haren (whom the Pirates will face in his Cubs debut Wednesday) and reliever Tommy Hunter.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' strong starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over, and it's struggled over the last 30 days. Its 4.64 ERA is third highest in the league, and they've blown five saves (second most). In fairness, they've probably been a little unlucky as well, as a league-leading 32% of baserunners have scored and they've allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325, well above the league average of .299. Neither of those figures are likely to persist.

The offense has been bad. They've hit .222 with a .342 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, both worst in the league, and their .303 on base percentage is fifth worst. They've struck out in 24% of their plate appearances, third most in the league, making contact on just 75% of their swings, the lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? Every Cubs starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.00 or lower over the past 30 days except Jason Hammel (whom the Pirates won't face) and Dallas Beeler (whom Haren's replacing). The Pirates will go against the team's two best starters tonight and tomorrow, Jon Lester (1.98 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks over his last 36.1 innings) and Jake Arrieta (2.08 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 34.2 innings). First baseman Anthony Rizzo leads the Cubs in home runs with five and RBI with 16 over the past 30 days, though his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are all below his full-year averages. Center fielder Dexter Fowler has walked in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, helping him compile an outstanding .416 on base percentage. Rookie catcher-left fielder Kyle Schwarber, recalled from the minors on July 17, has been the team's most consistent hitter, with a .320/.433/.540 slash line in 17 games.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been run-of-the-mill mediocre, but two have been notably bad. Shortstop Starlin Castro is batting .144/.179/.167 over the last 30 days, with two extra-base hits, two unintentional walks, and 21 strikeouts over 24 games. Third baseman/All-Star/Rookie of the Year candidate Kris Bryant is batting .165 with a .284 on base percentage and has struck out in nearly of third of his plate appearances over the past 30 days. The Cubs have operated sort of a bullpen-by-committee this year, but over the past 30 days, Hector Rondon (1.26 ERA, four saves, five holds, 15 strikeouts and two unintentional walks over 14.1 innings) has clearly outshone Jason Motte (three saves, one blown save, two holds, 5.23 ERA) and Rafael Soriano (a free agent signed by the Cubs in June, the Nationals' closer much of last year, 6.35 ERA in six games). 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates have a better record than the Cubs this year, have scored more runs, and given up fewer. However, they face two of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the next two nights. Taking the series two games to one would be an accomplishment, but dropping two of three would be neither a big surprise nor a panic signal.

Trailing 30 - August 2

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraphs' Leaders application. Comment for the week: The cutoff here is close enough to predict Players and Pitchers of the Month. American League: Mike Trout and...oh, I don't know...Scott Kazmir? Easy picks in the National League: Carlos Gonzalez and Zack Greinke.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Kansas City     18- 9     1. San Francisco   15- 8

   New York        16- 8     2. Pittsburgh      15-10    

3. Chicago         16-10     3. Los Angeles     14-10         

4. Los Angeles     14-10        New York        14-10   

5. Hou, Min        12-12        Philadelphia    14-10        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Tampa Bay        9-15     1. Cincinnati       8-17      

2. Oakland          9-14     2. Miami            8-16       

   Texas            9-14     3. Colorado        10-13      

4. Boston          10-14     4. Cincinnati      11-14
5. Det, Sea        11-15     5. Milwaukee       11-13

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Hosmer, KC       .390     1. Parra, Mil       .421  

2. Cabrera, Chi     .386     2. LeMahieu, Col    .418      

3. Kinsler, Det     .383     3. Posey, SF        .413           

4. Bogaerts, Bos    .380     4. Votto, Cin       .395          

5. Cain, KC         .365     5. Gonzalez, Col    .386       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Vogt, Oak        .171     1. Castro, Chi      .136          

2. LaRoche, Chi     .172     2. Ahmed, Ari       .157       

3. Hunter, Min      .179     3. Bryant, Chi      .163
4. Perez, KC        .188     4. Pederson, LA     .170           

5. Butler, Oak      .189     5. Peterson, Atl    .180      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Trout, LA        .441     1. Votto, Cin       .540           

2. Sano, Min        .435     2. LeMahieu, Col    .480          

3. Cain, KC         .432     3. Parra, Mil       .477         

4. Hosmer, Oak      .429     4. Harper, Was      .448          

5. Teixeira, NY     .426        Kang, Pit        .448      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Trout, LA        .800     1. Gonzalez, Col    .855        

2. Teixeira, NY     .733     2. Parra, Mil       .724     

3. Cain, KC         .671     3. Kang, Pit        .663       

4. Cabrera, Chi     .653     4. Bruce, Cin       .652       

5. Rodriguez, NY    .646     5. Votto, Cin       .651        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Trout, LA          11     1. Gonzalez, Col      11
2. Rodriguez, NY       9     2. Duda, NY           10        

   Teixeira, NY        9     3. Gonzalez, LA        8
4. Cespedes, Det       8     4. McCutchen, Pit      6
   Cruz, Sea           8     5. 11 with             5

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Cain, KC           23     1. Gonzalez, Col      21        

2. Eaton, Chi         22     2. Parra, Mil         20     

3. JD Martinez, Det   20     3. LeMahieu, Col      19
   Seager, Sea        20     4. 3 with             18
5. 2 with             19        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Cabrera, Chi       24     1. Gonzalez, Col      25        

2. Donaldson, Tor     23     2. Howard, Phi        23      

   Morales, KC        23     3. Bruce, Cin         20       

   Trout, LA          23     4. McCutchen, Pit     19
5. Davis, Bal         22     5. Pence, SF          18   
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Dyson, KC           8     1. Hamilton, Cin      11
2. Reyes, Tor          6     2. Gordon, Mia         8     

3. 5 with              5     3. Heyward, SL         7   

                                Pollock, Ari        7
                             5. 4 with              6
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Holland, KC         7     1. Kimbrel, SD        11

2. 5 with              6     2. Melancon, Pit       8

                                Rosenthal, SL       8
                             4. Casilla, SF         7
                                Familia, NY         7

   ERA                          ERA

1. Kazmir, Oak-Hou  0.35     1. Kershaw, LA      0.22

2. Tillman, Bal     1.31     2. Greinke, LA      0.95

3. Heaney, LA       2.20     3. Leake, Cin       1.25

4. Price, Det       2.25     4. Lackey, SL       1.26

5. Samardzija, Chi  2.27     5. deGrom, NY       1.30

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Hutchison, Tor   7.46     1. Burnett, Pit     6.60

2. Gallardo, Tex    5.96     2. Wisler, Atl      5.52

3. Hutchison, Tor   5.68     3. de la Rosa, Col  5.40

4. Lewis, Tex       5.63     4. Rusin, Col       5.25

5. Bauer, Cle       5.46     5. Morton, Pit      5.04

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Kazmir, Oak-Hou  0.73     1. Greinke, LA      0.58

2. Samardzija, Chi  0.81     2. Kershaw, LA      0.59
3. Salazer, Cle     0.88     3. deGrom, NY       0.61

4. Tillman, Bal     0.90     4. Lester, Chi      0.74
5. Gray, Oak        0.92     5. Leake, Cin       0.83

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Archer, TB         40     1. Kershaw, LA        52     

2. Keuchel, Hou       38     2. Lester, Chi        43

   Price, Det         38     3. Lynn, SL           40

4. Sale, Chi          36     4. Syndegaard, NY     38

5. Salazar, Cle       35     5. Arrieta, Chi       37