The context makes this a great play. The Astros are up by one run in the seventh, but the visiting Tigers have the bases loaded with two outs, meaning that a base hit changes the lead. Astros outfielder L.J. Hoes delivers.
(Too bad Hoes' performance didn't motivate the Astros bullpen, which gave up three runs in the ninth to lose the game.)
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Adrian Beltre and Immortality
On Tuesday, Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre went 4-for-4 in an 8-2 loss to the Tigers. The first of those four hits, a single to center in the bottom of the second, was the 2,500th hit of Beltre's career. It made Beltre, who turned 35 on April 7, the 32nd player to collect 2,500 hits by age 35. Of the 32, Beltre is the only one to have played over half his games at third base.
Two questions regarding Beltre's legacy: Is he likely to reach 3,000 career hits, and might he get inducted into the Hall of Fame?
Every year, the Bill James Handbook calculates the percentage chance of players reaching various milestones using the player's accomplishments to date, age, and level of performance. This year's Handbook lists Beltre's chance of reaching 3,000 hits at 81%. If the season were to end today, Beltre would have to become the 89th hitter in history to get 490 hits at age 36 or later in order to reach 3,000. (He has 2,510 through June 28.) If we assume that he can get another 75 hits this year (which seems safe; he has 84 in the Rangers' 80 games thus far), he'll need 415. There have been 111 players, ranging from Bill Buckner (419) to Pete Rose (1,494), to have done that. That total includes 11 third basemen:
The Hall of Fame outlook is even brighter. Despite the stinginess of Hall voters in recent years, 2,500 hits by age 35 has been a near-lock. Of the other 31 players to have reached the milestone, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Derek Jeter (still active), and Vada Pinson (flamed out - hit .223/.248/.335 in 103 games at age 36, his last year in the majors). Takeaway: If Beltre can keep playing at a reasonably high level (he's currently better than that, ranking second in the American League with a .333 batting average) and, in the immortal words of Satchel Paige, go very light on the vices, he stands a good chance being inducted into Cooperstown.
Two questions regarding Beltre's legacy: Is he likely to reach 3,000 career hits, and might he get inducted into the Hall of Fame?
Every year, the Bill James Handbook calculates the percentage chance of players reaching various milestones using the player's accomplishments to date, age, and level of performance. This year's Handbook lists Beltre's chance of reaching 3,000 hits at 81%. If the season were to end today, Beltre would have to become the 89th hitter in history to get 490 hits at age 36 or later in order to reach 3,000. (He has 2,510 through June 28.) If we assume that he can get another 75 hits this year (which seems safe; he has 84 in the Rangers' 80 games thus far), he'll need 415. There have been 111 players, ranging from Bill Buckner (419) to Pete Rose (1,494), to have done that. That total includes 11 third basemen:
| Player | H | From | To | Age | G | AB | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | Tm | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lave Cross | 848 | 1902 | 1907 | 36-41 | 747 | 2967 | 360 | 143 | 33 | 4 | 402 | 114 | 64 | .286 | .314 | .360 | .675 | PHA-WSH |
| Wade Boggs | 743 | 1994 | 1999 | 36-41 | 672 | 2407 | 363 | 130 | 13 | 31 | 268 | 334 | 226 | .309 | .389 | .412 | .802 | NYY-TBD |
| Graig Nettles | 637 | 1981 | 1988 | 36-43 | 933 | 2675 | 328 | 90 | 9 | 110 | 404 | 351 | 383 | .238 | .326 | .402 | .728 | NYY-SDP-ATL-MON |
| Cal Ripken | 635 | 1997 | 2001 | 36-40 | 620 | 2334 | 281 | 116 | 1 | 78 | 326 | 169 | 272 | .272 | .322 | .423 | .745 | BAL |
| Chipper Jones | 609 | 2008 | 2012 | 36-40 | 604 | 2086 | 323 | 124 | 4 | 82 | 324 | 360 | 328 | .292 | .393 | .473 | .867 | ATL |
| Gary Gaetti | 582 | 1995 | 2000 | 36-41 | 672 | 2262 | 292 | 121 | 7 | 103 | 362 | 182 | 392 | .257 | .319 | .454 | .772 | KCR-STL-CHC-BOS |
| Jimmy Dykes | 551 | 1933 | 1939 | 36-42 | 580 | 2023 | 227 | 88 | 17 | 22 | 307 | 272 | 144 | .272 | .365 | .365 | .730 | CHW |
| Jimmy Austin | 489 | 1916 | 1929 | 36-49 | 604 | 2010 | 265 | 73 | 32 | 3 | 124 | 257 | 193 | .243 | .333 | .316 | .649 | SLB |
| Brooks Robinson | 450 | 1973 | 1977 | 36-40 | 547 | 1849 | 168 | 69 | 5 | 26 | 199 | 167 | 158 | .243 | .306 | .328 | .635 | BAL |
| Mike Schmidt | 440 | 1986 | 1989 | 36-39 | 457 | 1612 | 256 | 85 | 3 | 90 | 322 | 242 | 223 | .273 | .368 | .497 | .865 | PHI |
| Sparky Adams | 429 | 1931 | 1934 | 36-39 | 406 | 1581 | 217 | 87 | 8 | 2 | 89 | 121 | 72 | .271 | .326 | .340 | .667 | STL-CIN |
The Hall of Fame outlook is even brighter. Despite the stinginess of Hall voters in recent years, 2,500 hits by age 35 has been a near-lock. Of the other 31 players to have reached the milestone, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Derek Jeter (still active), and Vada Pinson (flamed out - hit .223/.248/.335 in 103 games at age 36, his last year in the majors). Takeaway: If Beltre can keep playing at a reasonably high level (he's currently better than that, ranking second in the American League with a .333 batting average) and, in the immortal words of Satchel Paige, go very light on the vices, he stands a good chance being inducted into Cooperstown.
Trailing 30 - June 29
Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: It's kind of boring when I do these near the end of the month, since the numbers through Saturday's games is going to be pretty close to the numbers for the month of June. On the other hand, this gives you a pretty good preview of the monthly awards. Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen for players of the month, Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez for pitchers of the month? That'd make the most sense, but I'll bet the AL pitcher of the month will be Masahiro Tanaka, as voters will be swayed by his 4-2 record compared to King Felix's 2-1 (upon which he could improve today against Cleveland).
American League National League
Team W-L Team W-L
1. Oakland 18-8 1. Cincinnati 19-9
2. Seattle 17-11 2. Milwaukee 19-10
3. Kansas City 16-11 3. Washington 18-11
4. Cleveland 15-11 4. Los Angeles 17-11
Los Angeles 15-11 Pittsburgh 17-11
Worst Team W-L Worst Team W-L
1. Texas 9-17 1. Colorado 7-21
2. Chicago 10-17 2. San Diego 10-17
3. Tampa Bay 11-18 3. Miami 11-17
4. Minnesota 12-16 4. San Francisco 11-16
5. Houston 12-15 5. New York 12-16
Batting Average Batting Average
1. Beltre, Tex .402 1. Posey, SF .368
2. Altuve, Hou .389 2. Gattis, Atl .358
3. Butler, KC .365 3. Ramirez, Mil .352
4. Trout, LA .360 4. Lucroy, Mil .352
5. Crisp, Oak .358 5. Ramirez, LA .342
Lowest Batting Average Lowest Batting Average
1. Bogaerts, Bos .168 1. Cabrera, SD .143
2. Lowrie, Oak .170 2. Davis, Pit .183
3. Viciedo, Chi .175 3. Schierholtz, Chi .188
4. Choo, Tex .179 4. Zimmerman, Was .190
4. Choo, Tex .179 4. Zimmerman, Was .190
5. Davis, Bal .184 5. Molina, SL .193
On-Base Percentage On-Base Percentage
1. Trout, LA .456 1. Goldschmidt, Ari .443
2. Crisp, Oak .448 2. Martin, Pit .442
3. Santana, Cle .443 3. Ramirez, LA .440
4. Bautista, Tor .440 4. Laroche, Was .423
5. Altuve, Hou .422 5. Lucroy, Mil .418
Slugging Percentage Slugging Percentage
1. Trout, LA .779 1. McCutchen, Pit .649
2. Abreu, Chi .695 2. Ramirez, Mil .648
3. Santana, Cle .630 3. Rizzo, Chi .648
4. Chisenhall, Cle .626 4. Gattis, Atl .632
5. Beltre, Tex .616 5. Mesoraco, Cin .610
Home Runs Home Runs
1. Abreu, Chi 10 1. Rizzo, Chi 9
2. Jones, Bal 8 2. Frazier, Cin 8
2. Jones, Bal 8 2. Frazier, Cin 8
Martinez, Det 8 Mesoraco, Cin 8
Trout, LA 8 McCutchen, Pit 8
3. 2 with 7 5. Rendon, Was 7
3. 2 with 7 5. Rendon, Was 7
Runs Runs
1. Brantley, Cle 22 1. Frazier, Cin 24
Crisp, Oak 22 2. Freeman, Atl 22
3. Bourn, Cle 21 Rizzo, Chi 22
4. Gordon, KC 20 4. Rendon, Was 21
Trout, LA 20 5. 2 with 20
4. Gordon, KC 20 4. Rendon, Was 21
Trout, LA 20 5. 2 with 20
RBI RBI
1. Chisenhall, Cle 26 1. McCutchen, Pit 25
2. Seager, Sea 24 2. Morneau, Col 24
3. Cespedes, Oak 23 3. Castro, Chi 22
4. Trout, LA 22 Braun, Mil 22
5. 4 with 21 5. Davis, Mil 21
5. 4 with 21 5. Davis, Mil 21
Stolen Bases Stolen Bases
1. Altuve, Hou 15 1. Hamilton, Cin 16
2. Jones, Sea 10 2. Revere, Phi 9
3. Ellsbury, NY 7 3. Gordon, LA 8
Gentry, Oak 7 4. Frazier, Cin 7
5. Martin, Tex 6 Rollins, Phi 7
5. Martin, Tex 6 Rollins, Phi 7
Saves Saves
1. Rodney, Sea 9 1. Chapman, Cin 11
2. Holland, KC 8 2. Kimbrel, Atl 10
3. Doolittle, Oak 7 Rodriguez, Mil 10
Britton, Bal 7 4. Rosenthal, SL 9
Britton, Bal 7 4. Rosenthal, SL 9
Robertson, NY 7 5. 2 with 8
ERA ERA
1. Hernandez, Sea 1.49 1. Kershaw, LA 0.97
2. Duffy, KC 1.71 2. Alvarez, Mia 1.05
3. Tanaka, NY 1.80 3. Arrieta, Chi 1.14
4. Archer, TB 1.80 4. Zimmermann, Was 1.18
5. Lester, Bos 1.98 5. Hamels, Phi 1.23
Worst ERA Worst ERA
1. Lewis, Tex 7.24 1. Estrada, Mil 6.94
2. Verlander, Det 6.18 2. Stults, SD 6.16
3. Peavy, Bos 5.87 3. Minor, Atl 5.90
4. Phelps, NY 5.64 4. McCarthy, Ari 5.55
5. Wilson, LA 5.46 5. Chacin, Col 5.55
WHIP WHIP
1. Hernandez, Sea 0.77 1. Kershaw, LA 0.62
2. Duffy, KC 0.88 2. Zimmermann, Was 0.74
3. Gibson, Min 0.90 3. Arrieta, Chi 0.79
4. Tanaka, NY 0.91 4. Locke, Pit 0.88
5. Sanchez, Det 0.92 5. Colon, NY 0.92
5. Sanchez, Det 0.92 5. Colon, NY 0.92
Strikeouts Strikeouts
1. Price, TB 60 1. Kershaw, LA 48
2. Darvish, Tex 57 2. Hamels, Phi 47
3. Scherzer, Det 50 3. Hammel, Chi 43
4. Tanaka, NY 48 4. Teheran, Atl 42
5. Hernandez, Sea 45 Strasburg, Was 42
Monday, June 23, 2014
Why Guys Have Troubles With Commitments
First baseman/DH Albert Pujols signed a ten-year, $240 million contract with the Angels after the 2011 season. The contract's back-loaded, paying Pujols $12 million in 2012, $16 million last year, $23 million this season, and $1 million more every year from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, he will be a 41-year-old making $30 million.
That's not pretty.
Today at Hardball Talk, Aaron Gleeman noted:
Insult to injury: Which of these two first basemen would you want?
Player B has gone deep more, but has a markedly lower batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. So we can reasonably expect that Player B's superior runs scored and driven in are a function of where he bats in the order than a reflection of skill, since Player A is pretty clearly the better hitter. Here's another stat: Adjusted for home park, Player A's on base plus slugging (OPS) is 29% better than average this year. Player B's is only 3% better.
Player A is St. Louis Cardinal first basemen this season. Player B is Los Angeles Angel first basemen this season. Primary Cardinals 1B Matt Adams is making $22,484,000 less than the primary Angels 1B this season.
First point: If Pujols were to stop playing today, he'd be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Or at least he should be. He has the seventh-highest slugging percentage (.597), the eighth-highest on-base plus slugging (exactly 1.000), and the 25th-most homers (508) of all time.
Second point: The contract hasn't worked out that well. Here are Pujols's numbers starting in his last of three MVP seasons, 2009:
| Year | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 ★ | STL | 160 | 568 | 124 | 186 | 45 | 1 | 47 | 135 | 16 | 4 | 115 | 64 | .327 | .443 | .658 | 1.101 | 189 |
| 2010 ★ | STL | 159 | 587 | 115 | 183 | 39 | 1 | 42 | 118 | 14 | 4 | 103 | 76 | .312 | .414 | .596 | 1.011 | 173 |
| 2011 | STL | 147 | 579 | 105 | 173 | 29 | 0 | 37 | 99 | 9 | 1 | 61 | 58 | .299 | .366 | .541 | .906 | 148 |
| 2012 | LAA | 154 | 607 | 85 | 173 | 50 | 0 | 30 | 105 | 8 | 1 | 52 | 76 | .285 | .343 | .516 | .859 | 138 |
| 2013 | LAA | 99 | 391 | 49 | 101 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 55 | .258 | .330 | .437 | .767 | 116 |
| 2014 | LAA | 72 | 290 | 40 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 36 | .255 | .315 | .476 | .791 | 123 |
That's not pretty.
Today at Hardball Talk, Aaron Gleeman noted:
Pujols’ power has remained strong throughout his overall struggles and his 16 home runs rank eighth among AL hitters, but that comes with a lowly .255 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And after a decade of walking more often than he struck out for the Cardinals he’s whiffed 36 times compared to just 23 walks in 72 total games.
He’s been better than he was last season, but just barely, and overall Pujols looks nothing like the all-time great hitter he was in St. Louis. Sadly it was just a hot start for a banged-up 34-year-old with another seven seasons and $189 million left on his contract.
Insult to injury: Which of these two first basemen would you want?
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 325 | 305 | 30 | 91 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 60 | .298 | .326 | .462 | .788 | 141 |
| Player B | 334 | 304 | 42 | 77 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 45 | .253 | .309 | .451 | .760 | 137 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2014.
Player A is St. Louis Cardinal first basemen this season. Player B is Los Angeles Angel first basemen this season. Primary Cardinals 1B Matt Adams is making $22,484,000 less than the primary Angels 1B this season.
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