It's Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

That quote's attributed to Yogi Berra, though like most quotes attributed to him, who knows whether he actually said it.

Last year predictions in baseball were particularly hard. The American League had record parity, the can't-miss Nationals missed, the can't-win Astros and Cubs won...it was a tough year. I listed five locks for the 2015 season: the Phillies would finish last in the NL East, the Braves would be second to last, the Dodgers would win the NL West (three for three so far!), the Nationals would win the NL East (didn't make the postseason) and the Twins would finish last in the AL Central (finished second, just three games out of the postseason). Three out of five isn't bad, except that these were my locks. As I said, it was a tough season.

Before the season started, I compiled projected won-lost records from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, ESPN, and this site. Here's how we all did:

American League East

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Blue Jays    93-69  80-82  82-80  82-80  84-78

Yankees      87-75  79-83  82-80  82-80  82-80

Orioles      81-81  79-83  79-83  79-83  80-82

Rays         80-82  86-78  80-82  80-82  77-85

Red Sox      78-84  88-74  86-76  86-76  88-74

American League Central

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Royals       95-67  73-89  78-84  78-84  79-83

Twins        83-79  70-92  74-88  74-88  70-92

Indians      81-80  80-82  85-77  85-77  84-78

White Sox    76-86  79-83  78-84  78-84  83-79

Tigers       74-87  83-79  84-78  84-78  88-74

American League West

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Rangers      88-74  79-83  75-87  75-87  75-87

Astros       86-76  78-84  79-83  79-83  79-83

Angels       85-77  91-71  87-75  87-75  86-76

Mariners     76-86  87-75  88-74  88-74  89-73

Athletics    68-94  84-78  83-79  83-79  79-83

National League East

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Mets         88-74  83-79  81-81  81-81  84-78

Nationals    83-79  92-70  93-69  93-69  91-71

Marlins      71-91  81-81  81-81  81-81  81-81

Braves       67-95  72-90  72-90  72-90  69-93

Phillies     63-99  68-94  68-94  68-94  64-98

National League Central

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Cardinals   100-62  89-73  88-74  88-74  89-73

Pirates      98-64  81-81  85-77  85-77  85-77

Cubs         97-65  85-77  84-78  84-78  81-81

Brewers      68-94  81-81  79-83  79-83  78-84

Reds         64-98  76-86  75-87  75-87  72-90

National League West

            Actual    BP     FG    ESPN  OTFOP

Dodgers      92-70  98-64  92-70  92-70  94-68

Giants       84-78  84-78  81-81  81-81  84-78

Diamondbacks 79-83  72-90  74-88  74-88  71-91

Padres       74-88  85-77  84-78  84-78  86-76

Rockies      68-94  71-91  75-87  75-87  78-84

Nobody covered themselves in glory. One way to evaluate preseason picks is to calculate the difference between predicted wins and actual wins. On that basis, FanGraphs and ESPN missed by 241 wins, I did by 243, and Baseball Prospectus by 265. I'm not crazy about that method, though, for a number of reasons. I prefer the correlation between predicted winning percentage and actual winning percentage. On that basis, the standings are:

1. On the Field of Play  0.464

2. ESPN                  0.461

   FanGraphs             0.461

4. Baseball Prospectus   0.365

I'm not taking a victory lap. I was basically tied with ESPN and FanGraphs, while Baseball Prospectus lagged largely because of a few teams: It was way high on the Dodgers and Rays and way low on the Royals. 

The outlook for 2016 is more chaos in the American League. Baseball Prospectus has Tampa winning the East, ESPN has the Rays in last. FanGraphs has last year's West champion, Texas, tied for last. ESPN projects the Indians leading the Central with 84 wins with three teams (Royals, Tigers, White Sox) tied for second with just one fewer win. There's more consistency in the National League: All three forecast the AL East as Mets-Nationals-Marlins-Braves-Phillies, the Central with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates 1-3, and the West led by the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks, in that order. 

Here are my picks, with brief comments:

National League East
Washington Nationals, 89-73: Everybody's picking the Mets, plus the Nationals have lost some key parts (pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen, outfielder Denard Span), and Jonathan Papelbon's still a jerk. Still, I expect a bounceback season here, becasue just about everything went wrong last year other than MVP Bryce Harper, and pitcher Stephen Strasburg is a a pre-free agency salary drive. 
New York Mets, 85-77: Yes, I know, defending NL champs, fantastic rotation, they re-signed Yoenis Cespedes and traded for Neil Walker. But they have several fragile and/or aging guys around the diamond, and they're not particularly deep.
Miami Marlins, 82-80: If they get a full year out of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez (I'm guessing they don't), they'll finish with a better record. This isn't a very good team, but they do get to play 38 games against the next two clubs.
Philadelphia Phillies, 66-96: There's hope. Former GM Ruben Amaro re-stocked the farm system on his way out. They've got some promising youngsters on the team now (Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola) and more on the way.
Atlanta Braves, 64-98: They're being picked ahead of the Phillies by most people and I don't know why. Quick, name some good Braves. Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran (who wasn't that good last year)...told you. Like Philadelphia, they're reloading, but the future isn't now.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs, 89-73: Everybody's top pick. I've got them winning eight fewer games than last year and still winning the division. What's right: All those young players who came up and contributed last season will be with the team all year. What's wrong: Not all of them will be as good. What pushes them over: The offseason acquisitions of pitcher John Lackey, outfielder Jason Heyward, and second baseman Ben Zobrist.
St. Louis Cardinals, 86-76: Was last year the least impressive 100-win season you can remember? Some guys are getting old, and losing Heyward and Lackey to the Cubs hurts, but this is still a good team.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 83-79: I'll explain this one in detail tomorrow, since I know Pirates fans won't like it. In summary, they were somewhat lucky last year, they lost 60% of the starting rotation, and it's unreasonable to assume they'll continue to be uncannily injury-free, exposing a thin bench.
Milwaukee Brewers, 75-87: They're rebuilding in a tough, tough division.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: See above.

National League West
San Francisco Giants, 89-73: This is more about having reservations about the Dodgers than love for the Giants, though I like the Johnny Cueto and Denard Span signings. (Jeff Samardzija, not so much). Expect some regression from surprise Rookie of the Year contender Matt Duffy, offset by more time on the field from second baseman Joe Panik, and Bruce Bochy's still the manager.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 86-76: This is a good club, and they've got some great prospects who'll chip in this season, but ye gods, have they ever been injury-prone in the spring. And to the degree that injuries put players into unfamiliar roles, the trend could compound itself. The Giants had an injury-riddled 2015; this year feels like the Dodgers' turn.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: I'll confess to a blind spot with Arizona and the Twins: I'm not convinced either front office is up to the caliber of the rest of the league. They've got some great pieces in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielders David Peralta and A.J. Pollock, and they landed free agent pitcher Zack Greinke, but there are still a lot of holes.
San Diego Padres, 76-86: Last year they were the talk of the offseason, adding a lot of veteran talent and trading away a lot of young talent. Now they look like they're doing a bit of a rebuild. Oh well, they play in a great ballpark and the weather's always perfect.
Colorado Rockies, 75-87: Last season the tease was how good they'd be if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez could both stay healthy. Now Tulo's gone, Gonzalez could be soon, and the relief from a very good farm system is still a year or three away. No tease.

American League East
Toronto Blue Jays, 87-75: FanGraphs and ESPN like Boston, BP still likes Tampa Bay, but I'm picking Toronto as the lone divisional champ from 2015 to repeat. The rotation lost David Price, but it gets a full year from Marcus Stroman, and can these guys ever hit.
Boston Red Sox, 85-77: The two big additions to the pitching staff, starter Price (via free agency) and reliever Craig Kimbrel (via trade), will get the attention, but a bounceback also assumes a return to form of at least one of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. (I'm buying the former, not the latter.)
New York Yankees, 84-78: Another year of remaining in contention while they wait for the big contracts paid to old players to run out.
Tampa Bay Rays, 81-81: Gotta love the pitching. Gotta wonder how they'll score runs.
Baltimore Orioles, 78-84: They've got a great manager, a top-notch bullpen, and they'll hit a lot of homers. But they don't get on base enough and the outfield, outside of center fielder Adam Jones, is, to put it charitably, unproven. But really, in this division, anybody could win, anybody could finish last. It's that close.

American League Central
Cleveland Indians, 86-76: Arguably the best starting rotation this side of Citi Field, an underappreciated bullpen, and a much improved defense from this point in 2015. Like Tampa Bay, the question is scoring runs, and I'm assuming they get most of a year from outfielder Michael Brantley.
Kansas City Royals, 84-78: Hey, don't get annoyed at me. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have the Royals finishing last in the division, ESPN in a three-way tie for second (and third and fourth). Get on them for not giving the defending World Champions the love.
Detroit Tigers, 82-80: Everybody talks about how Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is desperately spending on this team in order to win the World Series before he dies. Fine, but he turns 87 this July. Orioles owner Peter Angelos turns 87 three weeks earlier. How come nobody's talking about Angelos wanting to buy a Series before he dies? I mean, yeah, Angelos isn't spending the way Ilitch is, but the old-owner-pushing-in-all-the-chips-to-the-center-of-the-table narrative is a little ageist, isn't it?
Chicago White Sox, 80-82: Lefty starter Chris Sale is one of the game's under-the-radar superstars. But the big story out of this team so far this year is a 14-year-old who can't hang out in the clubhouse.
Minnesota Twins, 75-87: They have some promising youngsters, but their success last year had a big dollop of luck. 

American League West
Seattle Mariners, 87-75: I picked them last year and was really, really wrong. But this year they actually addressed their primary offensive weakness, an inability to get on base, and Felix Hernandez, who had an off-year (for him) in 2015, looked good in spring (12:2 K:W, no homers in 12.1 innings).
Houston Astros, 84-78: Three things about the Astros. First, they were 51-111 just three seasons ago. Second, from the day they called up Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa through the end of the season, they were 52-52. Third, they finished only a game ahead of the Angels for the second wild card. It's like people think they're the defending division champs. They're not.
Texas Rangers, 83-79: In contrast to the Astros, the Rangers actually were the division champs last year. But they were kind of lucky--their record based on run differential was five games worse than their actual--and their rotation, even assuming a healthy return from Tommy John surgery by Yu Darvish, has a lot of question marks.
Los Angeles Angels, 80-82. In center fielder Mike Trout, they have the game's best player, and he's starting to look like this generation's Ernie Banks: Great player whose team doesn't get him to the Series.
Oakland Athletics, 76-86: Another year in the cellar looks likely, but as in the AL East, if you squint, you can see them playing into October. The American League is a big tossup.

Those Shifting Pirates

Baseball Prospectus is running a series entitled "Winter is Leaving." It examines each team in the league. The author chooses something obvious about the team--e.g., the Giants article today talks about how Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are both good--and expands on it. It's been an entertaining series, and, for those of you unwilling to pay for a BP subscription (despite my recommendation that you do so), it's free.

Anyway, I wrote the article on the Pirates. It's here. The obvious thing I discuss is that the Pirates shift their infielders a lot. The analysis is that the shifts are only the most visible manifestation of the Pirates' run prevention strategy: Get catchers who get a lot of borderline pitches called strikes, pitchers who, aided by the strike calls, generate a lot of ground balls, which are hit to infielders who are positioned optimally to make the play. It's the biggest platform for which I've written. If you click the link, I hope you like it.

And, to follow up on the blatant self-promotion, here is a link to the PowerPoint and here is a link to the audio for the presentation at the Society for American Baseball Research conference I mentioned last week.

Four More Games of Andrew McCutchen

Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote an excellent article describing why the Pirates are considering moving center fielder Andrew McCutchen from the No. 3 spot in the batting order to the N0o. 2 position. McCutchen batted third in all but one of his 154 games started last year, so this would be quite a change.

Traditionally, the No. 3 spot in the order is reserved for the team's best all-around hitter. Babe Ruth mostly batted third. So did Willie Mays. And Ty Cobb. And Ted Williams. And Henry Aaron. But that doesn't make it the optimal strategy. The Blue Jays' primary No. 2 hitter was MVP Josh Donaldson. The Angels used MVP runner-up Mike Trout in the No. 2 position more than anyone else. The Reds had Joey Votto, third in NL MVP voting, batting second more than anyone else. Stark explains the rationale for this proposed move:

So what the deep thinkers in the sport are beginning to understand is that the No. 3 spot might not be the best place to station your team’s best offensive force -- that it actually ranks behind the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 slots in importance, in fact.

“It’s about lineup construction, and the number of at-bats you get, and the weight that you put on the outs you make in those different spots,” Hurdle said. “It’s still an optimum place to hit, but it’s weighted differently now. When you look at it, most of the models that are put together are based on on-base production (from) guys at the top three out of four spots. So you still want a guy (hitting third) who can swing the bat and do some things. But it’s not the same, because the highest percentage of the time, they go up with two outs and nobody on.”

To reinforce that point, the Pirates showed McCutchen a list of hitters who batted the most times with two outs and the bases empty last year. And there he was, second in all of baseball on that list, with 158 plate appearances. Only Paul Goldschmidt (164) ranked ahead of him. Virtually all the names behind them were also No. 3 hitters. So you didn’t need to be Bill James to see the trend in those numbers.

Let's do some math, OK? 

• Last year McCutchen had 682 plate appearances in the 154 games he started. That's 4.4 plate appearances per game.
• Last year National League No. 2 hitters batted 10,963 times last year. No. 3 hitters batted 10,715 times. No. 2 hitters batted about 2.3% times more frequently.
• Take McCutchen's 682 plate appearances in his games started and increase it by 2.3%, and you get 698. That's 16 extra plate appearances.
• Those 16 extra plate appearances divided by 4.4 per game equals 3.6 games. Round that up and you get four games.

Moving McCutchen from the No. 3 spot to the No. 2 spot in the order is the equivalent to getting him for just shy of four extra games per year. Obviously, that's not a huge differences. But he's clearly the Pirates' best hitter. Four extra games of your best hitter in a division with three contending teams--well, it sure can't hurt.

What David Freese Means

This isn't really fair, but David Freese is kind of a one-hit wonder. His moment in the sun--granted, it was a big moment--was the 2011 postseason. That year, he batted .278 as the Cardinals beat the Phillies, three games to two, in the Divisional Series. In the fourth game of that series, with the Cards trailing two games to one, he came to bat in the bottom of the fourth with the Cardinals losing 2-1 and hit a double, driving in two runs and giving St. Louis the lead. In the sixth, he put the game on ice, hitting a two-run homer. He was MVP when St. Louis topped Milwaukee in six games in the Championship Series, batting .545 and slugging 1.091 with three homes and nine RBI. He was MVP of the World Series as well, batting .348 with a 1.160 OPS, remembered mostly for his game-winning home run in the eleventh inning of the wild 10-9 Cardinals victory in Game 6, enabled by his two-run, two-out triple on a 1-2 count in the last of the ninth, tying the score at seven. (Those hits erased the memory of his error in the fifth that led to a Rangers run, necessitating his extra-innings heroics.) The following night, in the Series-winning game, he got the Redbirds on the board with a two-run, two-out double on a full count in the bottom of the first, tying the score at two in a game St. Louis won 6-2. 

 

(Pirates fans will also remember that Freese hit a two-run homer off Gerrit Cole in the second inning of the last game of the 2013 Divisional Series against the Cardinals, starting St. Louis on their way to a 6-1 victory.)

 

As I said, that isn't really fair. Freese was good as a part-time player leading into the 2011 postseason (combined .298/.354/.429 slash line, a park-adjusted OPS 15% better than the league average, in 184 games spread over three seasons) and better in 2012 (.293/.372/.467, 29% better than average). He slumped to a pedestrian .262/.340/.381 in 2013, was traded to the Angels, was no better in 2014 (.260/.321/.383) before rebounding a bit last year, to .257/.323/.420. He was a late bloomer--he was 28 at the time of his postseason heroics--and he'll turn 33 at the end of April, a more or less league-average right-handed hitting third baseman who's never played more than 144 games in a season.

 

And, as of last Friday, a Pirate. The Pirates signed Freese, a free agent for the first time in his career, to a cheap one-year, $3 million deal. It represents a pay cut from what he made in 2013 ($3,150,000), 2014 ($5,050,000), and 2015 ($6,425,000). In other words, it was a very Pirates-like signing.

 

Signing David Freese says a couple things about the Pirates as they enter the season, it seems to me.

 

First, incumbent third baseman Jung Ho Kang is not going to be ready for the start of the season as he continues his recovery from last year's season-ending knee injury. I don't think anyone's surprised that Kang won't be ready for Opening Day. This deal, though, suggests to me that we may not see Kang until May, and he may be eased back into the lineup then. If Kang were to be out of action for just a few games, the Pirates would probably be content to plug Sean Rodriguez into the lineup, either at third or at second with Josh Harrison sliding over to third. Freese seems more of a weeks-long, rather than games-long, fill-in.

 

Second, the Pirates may try to move Michael Morse. GM Neal Huntington, when Freese was signed, indicated that the new Pirate will play first as well as third. With lefty-swinging John Jaso and righty Morse already set to platoon at the position, the Pirates would seem to be overstocked at first. Morse appears to be the odd man out, as he turns 34 next week, has less positional versatility (he can play outfield in the sense that Pedro Alvarez could play third base), and he arguably has more trade value than Freese. Morse has more power than Freese (.461 career slugging percentage, home runs in 3.8% of plate appearances vs. .417 and 2.5% for Freese) and, oddly, is cheaper. Morse is owed $8.5 million in 2016, the last year of a two-year, $16 million free agent contract he signed with the Marlins after the 2014 season. But the team from whom the Pirates acquired Morse, the Dodgers, are on the hook for the full amount, so the Pirates could market him as a "free" player.

 

Long term? Freese is a decent enough bench player. He's an OK third baseman, an OK right handed batter who doesn't have particularly bad platoon splits, and while he's played only 21 innings at first in the majors, he seems athletic enough to handle the position. He bolsters a somewhat thin Pittsburgh bench. But if his presence means that the Pirates are going to be without Kang for more than a few weeks, that's bad news. 

Unintended Consequences of Rising Strikeout Rates

If you've read this blog for a while, you'll know that I don't like to see batters getting hit by pitches. In fact, you might say I'm a little obsessed. I wrote a long piece (FanGraphs version here, Banished to the Pen here) tracing this path:

• Strikeouts have risen steadily.
• As strikeouts have risen, pitchers are increasingly ahead in the count. More plate appearances ended on 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 counts in 2014-15 than on 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 counts. That's unprecedented.
• When pitchers are ahead in the count, they target the margins of the strike zone rather than the middle.
• When they target the margins and miss, there are consequences that don't occur when they target the middle and miss.
• While it's been well-understood that rising strikeouts have led to decreased offense, my research showed that they've also, through the steps above, led to fewer sacrifice flies, more wild pitches, and more hit batters.

I submitted the report to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), and I was selected to make a presentation at the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix over the weekend. Really. Here's the program. It has an abstract of my report and my bio.

OK, that's it for links to stuff from the past. New Pirates-related content starts tomorrow.

As I Emerge From a Long Winter's Nap

Hokey smokes, I haven't blogged here since the end of 2015? That changes now.

Actually, I've had a somewhat busy winter, publishing-wise, just not here. Let me bring you up to date. 

In October, I wrote about how the American League in 2015 had the greatest parity, measured by the standard deviation of wins among its teams, in major league history. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

In December, I noted that four teams in 2015--the Pirates, Yankees, Nationals, and Phillies--had two catchers account for at least 98.5% of the innings caught by their teams, so their team didn't have to rely on a third catcher. Such teams, since 1969, have averaged 85 wins per season. Unfortunately, the trend doesn't appear to be durable. the 236 teams with just two players dominating catching chores one season, only 25% were able to repeat the feat the next year. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

Still in December, I did an analysis of every batter hit by a pitch in a Pirates game last year. There were a lot, given that the Bucs led the league in both hit batters (75) and getting hit by pitches (89). I found no evidence that the hit batters followed a general pattern of retaliation, i.e., you hit my guy, I hit yours. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here. 

Also in December, I discovered that hitters who changed their approach at the plate by pulling the ball a lot more or a lot less, or hitting it on the ground a lot more or a lot less, did better in 2015 relative to batters who hit more the same. But when the difference is generated by a lot more or a lot less of an action, it doesn't really suggest that, e.g., a batter would hit better by going the other way. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here. 

In the new year, I discovered that players 35+ are slowing down--exhibiting worse batting skills as they age--faster than in the past. The reasons, I hypothesized, are PED and amphetamine testing, faster fastballs, and managers' insistence on keeping high-paid veterans in the lineup. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

Also in January, I discovered that while on base percentage has been in vogue since the publication of Moneyball, slugging percentage is better correlated to run production than on base percentage. And don't even think about batting average. FanGraphs link here, Banished to the Pen link here.

And that doesn't even cover my big winter project. I'll get to that tomorrow.

Christmas Vacation Catch-Up

I. First Base, Solved. Two days before Christmas, the Pirates signed John Jaso to a two year, $8 million contract. On the surface, this doesn't seem like a defining moment for the 2016 season. Jaso's 32. He's never played in more than 109 games in a season, and over the past three years, he's played an average of 80 games per season. Here are his stats over those years. The last column, the one I labeled POS, lists the positions at which he played, by games.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	POS
2013	29	OAK	70	249	207	31	56	12	0	3	21	2	1	38	45	.271	.387	.372	.759	114	48 C, 17 DH, 1 1B
2014	30	OAK	99	344	307	42	81	18	3	9	40	2	0	28	60	.264	.337	.430	.767	118	54 C, 35 DH
2015	31	TBR	70	216	185	23	53	17	0	5	22	1	2	28	39	.286	.380	.459	.839	132	48 DH, 8 OF

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

There are two nonintuitive things about the Jaso signing. First, he'll play first base for the Pirates. As you can see, over the past three years, he's played exactly one game at first, and that was in 2013. It also, as it happens, was for one inning. The sum total of the remainder of his experience at first base was a game in 2010 in which he played four innings there. So the Pirates signed a first baseman who's played a total of five innings there in his career.

Second, the Pirates' primary first baseman last year was Pedro Alvarez, who was not offered a contract for 2016. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 150 games last year. Jaso has hit 27 home runs in the last four seasons combined, covering 347 games.

So the Pirates are replacing a slugging first baseman--career total 19 at bats per home run--with a guy who's pretty much never played the position, hits a homer every 43 at bats, and is four years older than the guy he's replacing.

Before I get into why I think the move makes sense, I want to point out two amusing things about the Pirates signing Jaso. First, on December 14, FanGraphs' Eno Sarris wrote a piece entitled "Finding the Pirates (Another) First Baseman," in which he previewed six first base possibilities for the Pirates, concluding:

But there’s one left-handed player left who is younger than the oldest of these options, better offensively than anyone we’ve mentioned so far, has experience playing the position, and offers the potential of a win and a half of production that would boost the Pirates to average all over the field. His name is John Jaso...He won’t cost a prospect, and he could help patch up the worst hole on the field. Plus, he’d return dreadlocks to the field in Pittsburgh, which is fun, if not valuable by traditional metrics.

In other words, Sarris totally nailed the Jaso pickup by the Bucs. Then, when the deal was announced, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote a typically clever column  entitled "Pirates Sign John Jaso, Obviously." His smart analysis includes this gem:

He’s getting two years, and he’s getting $8 million, and if this isn’t the very most Pirates move, it’s at least in the conversation. It doesn’t get much more Pirates than this.

It's true: The Pirates finding a low-budget, nondescript solution to a problem is what they do best, whether it's Francisco Liriano, Jung Ho Kang, or Francisco Cervelli. Here's why I think Jaso will work for the Pirates.

1. Yes, Jaso's had very limited experience at first, but he spent most of his career as a catcher (repeated concussions probably make that a non-starter in Pittsburgh), and catchers often make a smooth transition to first base. Besides, replacing Alvarez at first isn't exactly a high bar defensively.
2. Look at the on base percentage line his stats. His career average is .361, and he's been above .370 in four of his six major league seasons. You know how many Pirates had an on base percentage in 2015 above .370? One: Andrew McCutchen. (Cervelli was at .370, exactly.) The Pirates had a good offense (fourth in the National League in runs scored), but as I've pointed out, a high on base percentage is highly correlated with scoring runs. Jaso will improve the team in that respect.
3. Jaso bats left. The Pirates have only one other left-handed batter in their lineup: right fielder Gregory Polanco. Compare these two batting lines:

Player	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Player A	681	616	71	142	31	1	30	88	2	1	51	191	.231	.295	.430	.725
Player B	681	594	75	162	46	2	15	67	3	5	74	139	.273	.357	.433	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

Which would you rather have? Obviously, the second batter's better: Way more singles, doubles, and walks compensating for the reduction in home runs. Player A is the Pirates first basemen in 2015. Player B is a hybrid, assuming a platoon of Jaso and Michael Morse. I assumed that the Pirates face, as they did in 2015, about 75% right-handed pitchers and 25% lefties, and I combined Jaso's performance last year against righties (weighted 75%) and Morse's against lefties (weighted 25%). Now, line B is probably overstated, as the Pirates will have batters other than Jaso and Morse get some at bats, and each of them will face a relief pitcher against whom they'll have a platoon disadvantage from time to time. But there's reason to believe that the Jaso/Morse platoon will outperform the Alvarez/Morse/Sean Rodriguez combination of 2015. And that's looking just at offense, not defense.

Finally, Josh Bell is one of the Pirates' top farmhands (ranked No. 34 in baseball before the 2015 season by mlb.com) and the team's first baseman of the future, but he's still raw. He's played only 35 games at AAA, and 2015 was his first season at first base. The Jaso/Morse tandem will keep the position warm as the 23-year-old gains experience in the minors. Once Bell comes up, the Pirates will have a bat to deal at the trade deadline.

II. Andrew McCutchen, Not Solved. The Pirates' best player is signed through 2017, and the club has a certain-to-be-exercised option for 2018 as well. They'll pay McCutchen $13 million in 2016, $14 million in 2017, and $14.75 million in 2018, representing one of the biggest bargains in baseball; he'd probably get twice those amounts on the open market. He turns 32 in October 2018, so the Pirates have him signed for his prime years at below-market prices.

What's wrong with that? Well, it's what happens after the 2018 season. True, he likely won't be the same player then that he is now. This year, at 28, he's showed some signs of slowing down. He batted below .300, with a slugging percentage below .500, for the first time since 2011. With just 11 stolen bases and a 69% success rate, he's really not much of a stolen base threat. He's probably the worst fielder among the Pirates' three outfielders (though, in contrast to the club's defense at first base, that's a pretty high bar). He set a career high for strikeouts in 2015.

But, of course, we're talking about Andrew McCutchen here. He's been the face of franchise that hasn't really had a face since Willie Stargell, and its best all-around player since Barry Bonds and, before him, Roberto Clemente. In an article last week at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote,

It would make sense for the Pirates to sit down with McCutchen and his representatives before the start of the 2016 season, and take their best shot at signing the center fielder to a long-term extension...
Maybe the proposal would provide a platform for talks; maybe McCutchen's side would agree, or at least be willing to haggle some. It's also possible that the Pirates' proposal, within the current context, wouldn't be close to what McCutchen would want in an extension. Maybe McCutchen would prefer to play someplace else, for more money, which is entirely his right...
The sooner there is clarity on this for the Pirates and McCutchen, the better. If McCutchen agreed to terms, then the building anxiety over his situation -- for all involved, including the fans -- would end. (And with time, the price of an extension might only become more expensive).
If the Pirates and McCutchen cannot reach a deal, then the team's leadership would know, moving forward, that his time with the franchise will end. If the Pirates fall behind the Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings next summer, the team could dangle McCutchen in the July trade market and at least begin the process of assessing what they can get in return for him. They could either move him before July 31, or swap him next winter or the winter of 2017-18, leading up to his free agency.

The idea of Neil Walker leaving Pittsburgh was controversial. Can you imagine the club dealing McCutchen? But that's the dilemma it may face: Sign your best player to a long-term extension that will almost certainly overpay him in the out years, or try to trade an asset whose value decreases with every day he moves closer to free agency after the 2018 World Series.