Trailing 30 - September 8

Here is an explanation of this weekly post, which lists leaders and trailers for the past 30 days. This is possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application.

This week's fun statistic: The Nationals are making a frantic, belated bid for the NL wild card. (Eight back of the Reds as of this morning - tall order.) To see what's driving that, check the NL batting leaders. It won't surprise you that over the past 30 days, Washington's first in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage, and second in home runs and slugging to teams that play in hitters' parks (Cincinnati and Colorado, respectively).

   American League             National League

   Team W-L                    Team W-L      

1. Boston         17-10     1. Los Angeles     19-8        

2. Oakland        18-11     2. Washington      18-9       

   New York       18-11     3. Cincinnati     18-11         

4. Texas          15-11     4. Atlanta        15-11   

5. Los Angeles    16-12     5. St. Louis      16-12        

   Worst Team W-L              Worst Team W-L

1. Houston        10-19     1. Miami          10-17      

2. Tampa Bay      11-17        Chicago        10-17       

3. Minnesota      12-17     3. Pittsburgh     11-16      

4. Seattle        12-16     4. New York       11-17

5. Chicago        13-16     5. San Francisco  12-16   

   Batting Average             Batting Average     

1. Cano, NY        .382     1. Gennett, Mil    .386        

2. Ackley, Sea     .373     2. Span, Was       .359             

3. Infante, Det    .372     3. McCutchen, Pit  .356            

4. Trout, LA       .364     4. Carpenter, SL   .348          

5. 2 with          .357     5. Rosario, Col    .344       

   Lowest Batting Average      Lowest Batting Average
1. Franklin, Sea   .151     1. J Upton, Atl    .182          

2. Willingham, Min .153     2. Rollins, Phi    .183         

3. McLouth, Bal    .198     3. Crawford, SF    .184
4. Smoak, Sea      .198     4. Martin, Pit     .184           

5. Cabrera, Cle    .200     5. Ruf, Phi        .189            

   On-Base Percentage          On-Base Percentage
1. Trout, LA       .486     1. McCutchen, Pit  .463            

2. Cano, NY        .429     2. Choo, Cin       .432            

3. Cabrera, Det    .426     3. Goldschmidt, Ari.426         

4. Middlebrooks,Bos.421     4. Gennett, Mil    .415              

5. Beltre, Tex     .420     5. Hill, Ari       .414       

      

   Slugging Percentage         Slugging Percentage   

1. Cabrera, Det    .708     1. Venable, SD     .635        

2. Crisp, Oak      .683     2. Byrd, Pit       .606     

3. Cano, NY        .591     3. Gennett, Mil    .602

4. Middlebrooks,Bos.583     4. Rosario, Col    .598       

5. Ackley, Sea     .578     5. Davis, Mil      .573        

          

   Home Runs                   Home Runs

1. Soriano, NY       11     1. Venable, SD        8
2. Cabrera, Det      10     2. Zimmerman, Was     7        

3. Moss, Oak          9        Ruf, Phi           7          

4. Crisp, Oak         8        Gyorko, SD         7
   Carter, Hou        8     5. 6 with             6

   Runs                        Runs    

1. Jackson, Det      24     1. Carpenter, SL     27        

   Victorino, Bos    24     2. Choo, Cin         21       

3. Gardner, NY       22        Zimmerman, Was    21
4. Crisp, Oak        21     4. Venable, SD       20
   Soriano, NY       21        Desmond, Was      20

   RBI                         RBI      

1. Soriano, NY       38     1. Prado, Ari        25       

2. Cabrera, Det      28     2. Holliday, SL      24      

3. Cano, NY          24     3. Rosario, Col      22       

4. Perez, KD         23        Pence, SF         22
5. 2 with            22     5. Werth, Was        21

   Stolen Bases                Stolen Bases             

1. Bonifacio, KC     14     1. Young, NY         13            

   Dyson, KC         14     2. Schafer, Atl      11      

3. Ellsbury, Bos     12     3. Segura, Mil        8   

4. Trout, LA          8     4. 4 with             5

   Rios, Tex          8     

   Wins                        Wins   

1. Perez, Tex         5     1. de la Rosa, Col    6

2. 6 with             4     2. Roark, Was         5
                               Greinke, LA        5
                               Kelly, SL          5
                            5. 4 with             4

   Saves                       Saves

1. Farquhar, Sea     10     1. Soriano, Was      10

2. Reed, Chi          9     2. Kimbrel, Atl       8

   Holland, KC        9        Chapman, Cin       8

4. Janssen, Tor       8        Jansen, LA         8
   Balfour, Oak       8     5. 4 with             7

   ERA                         ERA

1. Feldman, Bal    1.36     1. Kershaw, LA     1.89

2. Pettite, NY     1.75     2. Fernandez, Mia  2.23

3. Lester, Bos     1.80     3. Harvey, NY      2.27

4. Buehrle, Tor    2.01     4. Greinke, LA     2.79

5. Parker, Oak     2.23     5. Strasburg, Was  2.85

   Worst ERA                   Worst ERA

1. Doubront, Bos   6.60     1. Volquez, LA     6.05

2. Porcello, Det   6.55     2. Haren, Was      5.23

3. Saunders, Sea   6.54     3. Kennedy, SD     4.96

4. Chen, Bal       6.00     4. Jackson, Chi    4.91

5. Hernandez, Sea  5.65     5. Peralta, Mil    4.51

   WHIP                        WHIP

1. Tillman, Bal    0.99     1. Kershaw, LA     0.92

2. Feldman, Bal    1.00     2. Harvey, NY      0.93

3. Gray, Oak       1.03     3. Fernandez, Mia  0.97

4. Parker, Oak     1.04     4. Strasburg, Was  1.04
5. Sale, Chi       1.04     5. Bumgarner, SF   1.04

   Strikeouts                  Strikeouts

1. Darvish, Tex      48     1. Greinke, LA       42     

2. Garza, Tex        41     2. Ross, SD          41

3. Gray, Oak         38     3. Fernandez, Mia    39

   Sale, Chi         38        Lee, Phi          39

5. 4 with            37        Wainwright, SL    39

In Other Pitching News

The Yankees have given up 12 runs against the Red Sox two games in a row. The only time that's happened before against Boston was in 1939. The only other time New York's given up 12 in two consecutive games at home was 1929. Here's the full list, not including today:

Strk Start	End	Opp
1996-07-17	1996-07-18	BOS,MIL
1988-08-27	1988-08-28	CAL
1971-07-05	1971-07-06	BOS,DET
1939-09-02	1939-09-03	BOS
1935-08-21	1935-08-22	SLB
1934-07-17	1934-07-18	CLE
1932-06-22	1932-06-23	SLB
1931-08-12	1931-08-14	CLE
1930-09-21	1930-09-25	CHW,PHA
1929-08-04	1929-08-06	CLE,WSH

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/7/2013.

What I Saw Last Night

One of the joys of being a baseball fan in the 21st century is that you can watch pretty much any major league game, anywhere. With mlb.tv and At Bat 13, every game is televised (subject to blackout provisions that are sometimes crazy). So here's what I watched last night:

• Nationals-Marlins: Jose Fernandez's second-to-last start. I've written about Fernandez before. He has a reasonable shot at NL Rookie of the Year (I still think Puig will get it) and is a shoo-in for NL Rookie Pitcher of the Year. He's only 21, and the Marlins don't want to risk breaking him down, so they've put an innings limit on him, making last night one of the last chances to see him. It was amazing. He gave up one infield single and a walk while striking out nine in seven innings. He threw 94 pitches and 71% were strikes. Until the seventh, he threw no more than four balls in any inning. He now has an ERA of 2.23 and has struck out 9.9 and walked 3.0 batters per nine innings. Here is a list of all pitchers 21 or younger who have an ERA under 2.40 who have struck out 9 or more and walked 3 or fewer per nine innings: Jose Fernandez.
• Dodgers-Reds: I caught the end of this one, seeing Aroldis Chapman nail down the save. He came in for the ninth inning. He threw 13 pitches: 12 fastballs and a slider. All but one of the fastballs were over 100 mph. The heart of the Dodgers' order--Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez--swung and missed seven times, and had one called strike. The only contact they made was a foul ball by Gonzalez. Thirteen pitches, three swinging strikeouts.
• Red Sox-Yankees: Then, for something completely different, I watched four Yankee relievers give up nine runs in two innings, turning an 8-3 lead over the Red Sox to a 12-8 defeat.

And, as it turned out, I missed what was easily the best pitching performance of the night. And you are forgiven if you didn't know what a Yusmeiro Petit was before last night.

Ballpark Music: It Really IS Annoying

Brilliant research by Larry Granillo at SB Nation. He was at Miller Park on Labor Day and, in addition to keeping score of the game, he kept score of every snippet of music that was piped into the ballpark. Click on the link for a play-by-play. It's fantastic. 

For the record, I don't have a problem with organ music, as long as it's sporadic and clever. ("Three Blind Mice" during an umpires' conference is clever. That stupid six-note "Charge" sequence is not.) I suppose walk-up music is OK. Trevor Hoffman got me to accept relievers' entrance music. But in general, I think ballparks play way too much music, too loudly, and a lot of what they play is crap. And don't get me started on the scoreboards telling me when to cheer...

The Winningest Yankee

Tonight the Yankees host the Red Sox for the start of a four-game series. If you're desperate to see it, fear not: three of the four games will be nationally televised (tonight on MLB Network, Saturday on Fox, Sunday on TBS). Funny how that works, it makes you think there's a rivalry between them or something.

The Yankees (2.5 games behind Tampa Bay for the last wild card) have more at stake than the Red Sox (5.5 games up on the same  Rays for the divisional lead). ESPN says Boston has a 99.5% chance of playing in the postseason compared to 17.1% for New York.

Of course, it wasn't that long ago that most people had left the Yankees for dead. But their 18-12 record over the past 30 days is second only to the Rangers' 20-10 in the AL, vaulting the Bombers back into the race. So what's changed?

To answer this, I looked at how the team's done with and without players this year. Three players--Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, and Ichiro Suzuki--have been regulars, missing fewer than ten games. So I ignored them, since their presence has been a constant. I looked at every other Yankee with over 100 plate appearances and checked how the team's done with and without them in the lineup. For example, the Yankees are 60-54 in games Vernon Wells has played, and 15-10 in games without Wells. That's a .526 winning percentage with him, and a .600 winning percentage without him. The Yankees' winning percentage is .074 worse with Wells than without. Here's the full list, from worst to best. Yankee fans, with a long tradition of winning baseball, from Ruth to Gehrig to DiMaggio to Mantle, won't be surprised to see which player's been the best, by quite a lot:

                   W-L       W-L
Player            with     without   Difference
Austin Romine     .436      .607       -.171
Lyle Overbay      .525      .647       -.122
Travis Hafner     .494      .603       -.110
Vernon Wells      .526      .600       -.074
David Adams       .500      .556       -.056
Chris Stewart     .527      .565       -.038
Jayson Nix        .552      .519       +.032
Eduardo Nunez     .556      .522       +.033
Curtis Granderson .564      .530       +.034
Alfonso Soriano   .568      .529       +.038
Kevin Youkilis    .571      .532       +.040
Alex Rodriguez    .615      .522       +.093
Source for player W-L records: Baseball Reference

Never Seen This Before

An error on a catcher pickoff attempt when the throw hits the batter's bat.

Nationals fans will be unsurprised to learn that Stephen Strasburg was on the mound when it happened.

What's Going On With: CC Sabathia

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	ERA+	WHIP
2011	30	NYY	AL	19	8	.704	3.00	33	33	237.1	143	1.226
2012	31	NYY	AL	15	6	.714	3.38	28	28	200.0	124	1.140
2013	32	NYY	AL	12	11	.522	4.91	28	28	183.1	82	1.353

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/2/2013.

What's The Story? CC Sabathia entered the season as the Yankees' ace, a Sports Illustrated cover boy, and a presumed contender for the Cy Young Award. Um, it hasn't exactly worked out. His 4.91 ERA ranks 36th among the 39 ERA qualifiers in the American League. He's won more than he's lost, but that's because of his run support (4.7 runs per game,  24th in the AL, compared to a league average of 4.4) than his pitching. 



If You Don't Want to Read all the Rest of This: There are a lot of trends going the wrong way for Sabathia. The velocity on all his pitches are down; they've gone from above average to average. His changeup and slider, his two best pitches, aren't moving as much, and batters are having much more success against them. There's not anything here to suggest bad luck or some sort of fluke. This is not exactly encouraging for a guy who's owed $96 million over the next four seasons (the last $25 million is subject to his not suffering a shoulder injury in 2016).

What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      50%      8%       42%        0%
2012      36%     13%       50%        0%
2013      40%     17%       42%        1%

Against Righties:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      44%     15%       22%       19%
2012      41%     15%       26%       18%
2013      44%     13%       23%       20%

Overall:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      46%     13%       27%       14%
2012      40%     14%       32%       14%
2013      43%     14%       28%       15%
He's not using his fastball as much against lefties. But there's nothing else there: He had unusual success against left-handed hitters with his fastball in 2011, accounting for the high percentage he threw that year.

What's His Velocity?
Miles Per Hour:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011     94.7     93.8      82.2     87.5
2012     93.0     92.5      81.1     86.6
2013     92.0     91.0      80.5     85.2

Uh-oh. It's normal for pitchers to slow down as they age. But Sabathia's lost a lot of velocity. His fastball and sinker are now league-average. They were above average before.

How Much Movement?
Inches, horizontal/vertical:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011    5.0/9/1  9.8/6.7  2.2/0.7  8.9/6.3
2012    4.4/8.9  9.7/6.4  2.5/0.0  8.2/6.6
2013    5.1/8.8 10.0/6.1  2.0/0.2  7.6/6.1
He's getting a little less movement on his slider, which is his No.1 pitch against lefties and No. 2 against righties. As a result, he's allowed a .328 slugging average when throwing the slider. That's still good, but well above his results in 2012 (.261) and 2011 (.232). The same is true of his change, which has gone from a good pitch to a hittable one (.488 slugging).

What's He Given Up?

Year  BABIP  K%   BB%   HR%   GB%   LD%   FB% HR/FB+LD Str%
2011  .322  23%  6.0%  1.7%   48%   20%   32%   5.5%    66%
2012  .290  24%  7.7%  2.6%   50%   17%   33%   8.6%    67%
2013  .309  20%  9.3%  3.6%   46%   20%   32%  10.6%    66%
(See glossary at end for definition of column headings)
Pretty much everything's going the wrong way. He's inducing fewer ground balls, and the balls in the air are going over the fence more often. He's striking our fewer hitters and walking more. 

(All data here from Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball.) 
Glossary: BABIP = batting average on balls in play; K%, BB%, HR% are percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout, walk, and home run, respectively; GB%, LD%, FB% are percentage of batted balls that are ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, respectively; HR/FB+LD = percentage of fly balls and line drives that are home runs; Str% = percentage of pitches that are swung at or called strikes.