Kind of Sweet Play of the Day, July 20

Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo made a circus catch in yesterday's game against the Diamondbacks with runners on first and third and one out.

And it cost the Cubs a run, and possibly the game.

Here's the play:

The problem, as Hardball Talk pointed out, is a little-known rule in baseball, rule 7.04(c), which states: 

If a fielder, after having made a legal catch, should fall into a stand or among spectators or into the dugout or any other out-of-play area while in possession of the ball after making a legal catch, or fall while in the dugout after making a legal catch, the ball is dead and each runner shall advance one base, without liability to be put out, from his last legally touched base at the time the fielder fell into, or in, such out-of-play area.

(highlighting mine)

So by catching the ball while falling out of play, Rizzo allowed the run to score. Had he let the ball drop foul, there still would have been runners on first and third, nobody out, 0-1 count on the batter. So there's still a pretty good chance the Diamondbacks would have scored a run. (To date this season, teams have scored 1.67 runs in innings in which they had runners on first and third with nobody out.) But they might not have. And that one run was the margin of victory in a 3-2 win for Arizona.

Derek Jeter's Best Play of the All-Star Game

The question is: Who else can pull this off once The Captain's gone?

Trailing 30 - All-Star Break

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: I should've done this on Monday - I've picked up a couple days of no activity. I'm going to skip this next Sunday--the All-Star Break puts a big hole in the schedule - but I'll be back after that. As for this listing--JD Martinez, in three seasons with the Astros prior to this year: 975 plate appearances, 24 HR, 87 R, 126 RBI, .251 BA, .300 OBP, .387 SLG. This year with the Tigers: 205 PAs, 13 HR, 27 R, 43 RBI, .346/.380/.654. Talk about a change of scenery... 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles     21-7      1. Cincinnati      19-10       

2. Oakland         19-9      2. Los Angeles     18-10        

   Detroit         19-9      3. Atlanta         17-12         

3. Baltimore       18-10        St. Louis       17-12   

4. Tampa Bay       18-11     5. Washington      16-11        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Texas            5-23     1. Colorado         8-20      

2. Houston          9-18     2. San Francisco    9-18       

   Toronto          9-18     3. Miami           10-18      

4. Minnesota       12-17     4. Arizona         11-15

5. Bos, Chi, NY    12-16     5. Chicago         13-16

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. JD Martinez, Det .405     1. McGehee, Mia     .355        

2. Altuve, Hou      .377     2. Morneau, Col     .354      

3. Beltre, Tex      .375     3. Gennett, Mil     .353           

4. Vogt, Oak        .375     4. Wright, NY       .351         

5. Encarnacion, Tor .366     5. Hamilton, Cin    .344      

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Bogaerts, Bos    .115     1. Segura, Mil      .172          

2. Willingham, Min  .127     2. Crawford, SF     .185       

3. Murphy, Cle      .130     3. Valbuena Chi     .188
4. Davis, Bal       .143     4. Howard, Phi      .191           

5. Beckham, Chi     .146     5. Parra, Ari       .198      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Encarnacion, Tor .464     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .469           

2. Trout, LA        .438     2. McGehee, Mia     .441            

3. JD Martinez, Det .430     3. Mesoraco, Cin    .427         

4. Crisp, Oak       .420     4. Freeman, Atl     .418          

5. Cano, Sea        .420     5. Wright, NY       .414       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. JD Martinez, Det .784     1. Mesoraco, Cin    .667        

2. Trout, LA        .709     2. McCutchen, Pi    .648     

3. Encarnacion, Tor .690     3. Wright, NY       .636       

4. Abreu, Chi       .673     4. Gennett, Mil     .624       

5. Pearce, Bal      .617     5. Coghlan, Chi     .612        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Abreu, Chi         10     1. Byrd, Phi           8
   Trout, LA          10     2. Adams, SL           7        

   JD Martinez, Det   10        McCutchen, Pit      7

4. 3 with              7        Mesoraco, Cin       7
                                Rizzo, Chi          7

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Calhoun, LA        29     1. Rendon, Was        26
2. Trout, LA          23     2. Freeman, Atl       22     

   Pujols, LA         23     3. Byrd, Phi          21
4. Kinsler, Det       21        Coghlan, Chi       21
5. 2 with             20        McCutchen, Pit     21
                            

   RBI                          RBI      

1. JD Martinez, Det   29     1. Adams, SL          23        

2. Trout, LA          28        Hamilton, Cin      23      

3. Pujols, LA         27        McCutchen, Pit     23       

4. Seager, Sea        24        Werth, Was         23
   Ortiz, Bos         24     5. Davis, Mil         21

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Altuve, Hou        17     1. Hamilton, Cin      13            

2. Jones, Sea         10     2. Rollins, Phi        9     

3. Dyson, KC           8     3. Frazier, Cin        8   

4. Fuld, Min           7        Revere, Phi         8
   Aybar, LA           7        Young, NY           8

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Smith, LA          10     1. Chapman, Cin       10

2. Britton, Bal        9        Kimbrel, Atl       10

   Rodney, Sea         9        Rosenthal, SL      10
4. Robertson, NY       7     4. Jansen, LA          9

   McGee, TB           7        Soriano, Was        9

   ERA                          ERA

1. Lester, Bos      0.97     1. Kershaw, LA      0.22

2. Richards, LA     1.51     2. Wainwright, SL   0.96

3. Quintana, Chi    1.51     3. Lincecum, SF     1.24

4. Hernandez, Sea   1.66     4. Hahn, SD         1.46

5. Price, TB        1.69     5. Arrieta, Chi     1.78

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Guthrie, KC      6.21     1. Jackson, Chi     7.92

2. Happ, Tor        5.76     2. Hudson, SF       6.07

3. Hutchison, Tor   5.72     3. Haren, LA        6.06

4. Lackey, Bos      5.59     4. Miller, SL       6.03

5. Verlander, Det   5.54     5. Estrada, Mil     6.00

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Hernandez, Sea   0.66     1. Kershaw, LA      0.51

2. Bucholz, Bos     0.71     2. Arrieta, Chi     0.71

3. Young, Sea       0.79     3. Lincecum, SF     0.74

4. Lester, Bos      0.81     4. Latos, Cin       0.80
5. Quintana, Chi    0.84     5. Garza, Mil       0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Price, TB          53     1. Kershaw, LA        55      

2. Richards, LA       50     2. Hahn, SD           42

3. Hernandez, Sea     42        Kennedy, SD        42

4. Darvish, Tex       41        Ross, SD           42

5. 2 with             40     5. 2 with             41

Sweet Play of the Day: Sox Edition

The White and Red Sox completed a four-game series in Boston yesterday. On Wednesday, one of the highlights was this catch by Boston outfielder Jackie Bradley, robbing the White Sox's Tyler Flowers:


So Thursday, Chicago outfielder Adam Eaton returned the favor,  avoiding a collision to rob Boston's David Ortiz:

The Other Side of the A's-Cubs Trade

Late on the Fourth of July, the Chicago Cubs traded starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland A's for three minor leaguers--shortstop Addison Russell, outfielder Billy McKinney, pitcher Dan Straily--and a player to be named later. The analysis of the trade has focused on (1) how it's an all-in, win-now, flags-fly-forever move by Oakland, which already had the best record in baseball, to try to win the World Series, and (2) how the Cubs farm system, already one of the best, is now flush with top prospects. Fair enough. But here's another aspect: The 2014 Cubs have lost two-fifths of their rotation. They were a last-place team with Samardzija and Hammel, and they'll be worse without them. Does that mean anything?

Yes, I think, in two ways. One, it sets up Cubs to improve their position in the next amateur draft. Baseball teams draft amateurs based on the reverse order of standings. Here are eight teams with fewer than 40 wins as I write this:
   Team          W  L  GB
   Houston      37 54  --
   Colorado     37 53 0.5
   Arizona      38 53 1.0
   Texas        38 51 2.0
   Philadelphia 38 51 2.0
   Cubs         38 49 3.0
   Boston       39 50 3.0
   Minnesota    39 49 3.5

Obviously, "games behind" here refers to games behind the team that'll pick first in the draft. As you can see, the race for worst is tight. The Cubs can improve their draft position by losing more.

Second, if the Cubs lose more, it'll benefit the teams they play. In fact, playing against a weak Cubs team could impact all three National League divisional races:

• In the NL Central, the Brewers (first place) and Cardinals (second, 4.0 games out) have ten games left with the Cubs. Reds (fourth, 5.0 games out) have nine. But the Pirates (third, 4.5 games out) have just six. That gives Pittsburgh's opponents more easy games.
• In the NL West, the first-place Dodgers have seven games left with the Cubs. The second-place Giants, one game out, have only three. As if the Dodgers needed help...
• In the NL East, the first-place Braves have three games remaining with the Cubs. The second-place Nationals, half a game behind, have none.

Look, having the Cubs on the schedule was a relative advantage for the Brewers, Cards, Reds, Dodgers, and Braves before the trade was made. Even with Samardzija and Hammel, Chicago wasn't a very good club. But that relative advantage has widened a little. If the races stay tight, the teams now in first may have Cubs President Theo Epstein to thank, in part, for their post-season appearances.

Reality Check: Ray Fosse

I listened to most of yesterday's Blue Jays-A's game while on a long drive in order to hear the Oakland debut of Jeff Samardzija, acquired in a July 4 trade with the Cubs. (He did pretty well: One run and five baserunners in seven innings.) Going from the Cubs, the worst team in the NL Central, the A's, with the best record in baseball, is a huge upgrade for Samardzija. The color man on the A's broadcast, former major league catcher Ray Fosse, talked about what that's like. 

Fosse is best remembered as the catcher whom Pete Rose flattened while scoring the winning run in the 1970 All-Star Game, one of the most memorable plays in All-Star history. Fosse suffered a separated shoulder and, it was said, was never the same again. That claim may be a little hyperbolic. It's true that Fosse never approached the .312/.366/.527 slash line that he'd compiled at the 1970 All-Star Break, but a lot of players put together a great half-season. And it's not like he became worthless. He was an All-Star the following season and won a Gold Glove. He was a regular only three more seasons, though, and, worn down by a succession of injuries, he retired at age 30.

In March 1973 season, Fosse was traded from the Indians to the A's. Like Samardzija, he went from a poor team (the 1972 Indians were fifth in the six-team AL East) to a good one (the 1972 A's won the World Series). On the broadcast, he talked about how exciting it is for a player to go from an also-ran to a championship-quality team, even though it means you're no longer a big fish in a small pond. Fosse noted (I'm paraphrasing here) that he went from batting fourth to batting eighth. 

Is that true? Did he really go from being a cleanup hitter to a No. 8 hitter? Doesn't that sound overly dramatic?

It turns out Fosse's memory is correct. In 1970, the year of the collision with Rose, he had 498 plate appearances, the majority (59%) batting fourth. That made sense, as led the Indians in batting average and slugging percentage. In 1971, he led the team in batting again but his power slipped, and he was more often the No. 3 hitter (33% of plate appearances) than No. 4 (30%). In 1972, his last year in Cleveland, he batted just .241/.312/.354, but his .666 OPS was about league-average--this was a pitching-dominated year, and the American League adopted the designated hitter the next season in an attempt to revive offenses. Fosse had 508 plate appearances, with a narrow plurality in the No. 4 position (33%) followed by No. 6 (32%). He was a pretty bad cleanup hitter, batting .216 with a .327 slugging percentage, but his recollection is correct: he batted fourth more than in any other lineup position for the 1972 Indians.

For the 1973 A's, he's absolutely correct: 80% of his plate appearances were from the eighth position in the lineup.

Fosse's point wasn't that it was a bummer going from batting fourth to batting eighth; it was that going from Cleveland to Oakland was invigorating because it gave him a chance to play for a winning club. And he did: The A's won the World Series in 1973 and 1974 with Ray Fosse as their catcher.

Trailing 30 - July 6

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: The AL West has the league's three best teams AND its two worst over the past 30 days. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles     19-8      1. Los Angeles     19-10       

2. Oakland         17-10     2. Pittsburgh      18-10        

3. Seattle         17-11     3. Atlanta         18-11         

3. Kansas City     16-10     4. Cincinnati      17-11   

4. Tampa Bay, Balt 17-12        Washington      17-11        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Texas            8-19     1. Colorado         9-20      

2. Houston         10-18     2. San Francisco    9-18       

   Toronto         10-18     3. Arizona         10-17      

4. Chicago         10-17        Miami           10-17

5. Minnesota       11-17        New York        10-17

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Altuve, Hou      .394     1. McCutchen, Pit   .367        

2. JD Martinez, Det .383     2. Morneau, Col     .363      

3. Calhoun, LA      .380     3. McGehee, Mia     .358           

4. Beltre, Tex      .376     4. Lucroy, Mil      .350          

5. Pearce, Bal      .367     5. Gordon, LA       .350       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Bogaerts, Bos    .100     1. Cabrera, SD      .132          

2. Arcia, Min       .130     2. Segura, Mil      .168       

3. Davis, Bal       .140     3. Parra, Ari       .182
4. Donaldson, Oak   .160     4. BJ Upton, Atl    .209           

5. Lowrie, Oak      .167     5. Jones, Mia       .209      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Trout, LA        .444     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .470           

2. Altuve, Hou      .435     2. Martin, Pit      .467            

3. Pearce, Bal      .431     3. McGehee, Mia     .444         

4. Crisp, Oak       .429     4. McCutchen, Pit   .430          

5. Calhoun, LA      .425     5. Lucroy, Mil      .417       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. JD Martinez, Det .755     1. McCutchen, Pit   .679        

2. Trout, LA        .706     2. Dickerson, Col   .596     

3. Pearce, Bal      .667     3. Lucroy, Mil      .590       

4. V Martinez, Det  .648     4. Ramirez, Mil     .573       

5. Calhoun, LA      .633     5. Granderson, NY   .570        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Abreu, Chi         10     1. Byrd, Phi           9
2. Trout, LA           9     2. McCutchen, Pit      7        

3. Jones, Bal          8     3. 4 with              6

   JD Martinez, Det    8     
   V Martinez, Det     8     

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Calhoun, LA        22     1. Freeman, Atl       24        

   Trout, LA          22     2. Rendon, Was        21     

   Cabrera, Det       22     3. Polanco, Pit       20
4. Cano, Sea          21     4. 4 with             19
5. V Martinez, Det    20     
                            

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Trout, LA          24     1. McCutchen, Pit     27        

2. JD Martinez, Det   23     2. Morneau, Col       25      

3. Seager, Sea        22     3. Castro, Chi        21       

   Abreu, Chi         22     4. 3 with             20
5. 2 with             21     

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Altuve, Hou        15     1. Hamilton, Cin      13            

2. Jones, Sea         10     2. Revere, Phi        10     

3. 4 with              6     3. Frazier, Cin        9   

                                Rollins, Phi        9
                             5. Marte, Pit          8

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Rodney, Sea         9     1. Kimbrel, Atl       12

2. Britton, Bal        8     2. Rosenthal, StL     10

3. Robertson, NY       7        Chapman, CIn       10
   Uehara, Bos         7     4. Rodriguez, Mi       9

5. Holland, KC         6        Jansen, LA          9

   ERA                          ERA

1. Hernandez, Sea   1.19     1. Kershaw, LA      0.41

2. Richards, LA     1.83     2. Wainwright, StL  0.59

3. Lester, Bos      1.93     3. Arrieta, Chi     0.78

4. Porcello, Det    2.00     4. Alvarez, Mia     1.67

5. Duffy, KC        2.01     5. Hamels, Phi      1.71

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Whitley, NY      6.90     1. de la Rosa, Col  7.04

2. Verlander, Det   6.16     2. Estrada, Mil     6.83

3. Wilson, LA       5.94     3. Haren, LA        5.29

4. Elias, Sea       5.55     4. Chacin, Col      5.28

5. Cobb, TB         5.51     5. Hernandez, Phi   5.24

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Hernandez, Sea   0.62     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.49

2. Price, TB        0.89     2. Kershaw, LA      0.66

3. Richards, LA     0.90     3. Lincecum, SF     0.77

4. Porcello, Det    0.97     4. Zimmermann, Was  0.83
5. Tanaka, NY       1.00     5. Beckett, LA      0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Hernandez, Sea     54     1. Kershaw, LA        60      

2. Price, TB          52     2. Arrieta, Chi       46

3. Darvish, Tex       51     3. Hamels, Phi        42

4. Scherzer, Det      50        Teheran, Atl       42

5. Sale, Chi          44        Hammel, Chi        42