Monday, August 12, 2013

Strength of Schedule

A reader emailed (which is fine, but feel free to use the comments section too; I do read and respond) and suggested that instead of meting out the strength-of-schedule analysis one division at a time, I should do everything at once. Makes sense, so here goes.

For each team, I'm going to list the won-lost record of their remaining opponents (weighted by the number of games per opponent) and the expected wins and losses for the opponents in the remaining games based on their won-lost percentage. So when I write "ATL  .460 20.2-23.8" I'm saying the Braves's remaining opponents have a .460 winning percentage, which equates to a 20.2-23.8 record over Atlanta's remaining 44 games. 

NL EAST
  ATL .460 20.2 - 23.8
  MIA .509 23.4 - 22.6
  NY .494 23.2 - 23.8
  PHI .497 22.4 - 22.6
  WAS .475 21.4 - 23.6
COMMENT: Before you say anything about the unfairness that the Braves have the easiest remaining schedule in the division, consider that each of these teams has most of its remaining games with NL East opponents, which means Atlanta doesn't have to play teams with records above .500.

NL CENTRAL
  CHI .518 23.3 - 21.7
  CIN .491 22.1 - 22.9
  MIL .538 23.7 - 20.3
  PIT .497 22.4 - 22.6
  SL .510 23.0 - 22.0
COMMENT: I hit up this one last week. Nothing here to suggest an material advantage for anyone. 

NL WEST
  ARI .505 23.2 - 22.8
  COL .502 21.6 - 21.4
  LA .471 21.2 - 23.8
  SD .511 23.0 - 22.0
  SF .506 22.8 - 22.2
COMMENT: The Dodgers' remaining out-of-division opponents are the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, and Red Sox. The Diamondbacks have the Phillies, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Orioles, and Blue Jays. That's a nice advantage for LA. As for the wild cards, the NL Central teams have a decent lead that the Diamondbacks' schedule doesn't make any less daunting.

AL EAST
  BAL .520 23.4 - 21.6
  BOS .511 21.5 - 20.5
  NY .492 24.6 - 25.4
  TB .508 25.4 - 24.6
  TOR .515 20.1 - 18.9
COMMENT: The remaining schedule is a little tougher on the Orioles than the Rays. That could be a difference-maker in the battle between those teams. The O's start today 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay, 2 in the loss column.

AL CENTRAL
  CHI .523 27.2 - 24.8
  CLE .478 21.0 - 23.0
  DET .479 22.0 - 24.0
  KC .495 23.3 - 23.7
  MIN .507 23.8 - 23.2
COMMENT: The race for first is over. The Indians have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the AL, which could be enough to enable them to hold off the Royals. The wild card is a stretch for both teams.

AL WEST
  HOU .504 23.2 - 22.8
  LA .498 22.9 - 23.1
  OAK .483 22.2 - 23.8
  SEA .513 23.1 - 21.9
  TEX .469 20.6 - 23.4
COMMENT: We're not talking a huge difference here, but Texas's easiest-in-the-AL remaining schedule could enable it to hold on to the division lead and avoid what Joe Sheehan has called The Coin Flip Game. Its remaining out-of-division games are against two good teams (Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh), one okay one (Kansas City) and three bad ones (Minnesota, Milwaukee, the White Sox). They also have six home games remaining with the Astros. The A's still have series with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Detroit - all above .500, though they also play seven against the Twins and seven at home against Houston. In a tight wild card race among Tampa, Baltimore, and whoever doesn't win the AL West, the Rangers' and A's seem to have a bit of an inside track.


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