Strength of Schedule - NL Central

Football fans know strength of schedule. A D-I team playing a bunch of SEC opponents has a harder schedule than one with a bunch of home games against lower-division cupcakes. Strength of schedule calculations even up those differences.

You don't hear about strength of schedule in baseball because every team plays more or less the same schedule: 19 games against each team in its division, 6-7 against every other team in its league, and 20 interleague games. There are slight variations, especially regarding interleague play, but for the most part, every divisional rival plays the same teams.

The timing, though, can make a difference. Say you're the Angels. (First of all: Sorry about the season.) If your schedule has most of your games against the Rangers and A's in the first half of the season and most of your Mariners and Astros games in the second half, your second half schedule will be easier, even though you're playing the same number of games in the division as your rivals. You get it.

I'm going to start looking at the remaining schedules for teams in the closer races. Today: The NL Central. Entering play today, the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals all had 48 games remaining. But they're not the same 48 games. The Pirates and Cards have nine games against each other, but six are in St. Louis. The Pirates have three interleague games on the road with playoff contender Texas; Cincinnati has three with doormat Houston. St. Louis has to play the Braves four times.

Overall, Cincinnati's games are with teams with an aggregate winning percentage of .489. Pirate opponents are at .494, and the Cards play teams with a .505 percentage. Adjust that for home/road differences (home teams win 54% of all games) and the same relationship holds: .485 for the Reds, .494 for the Bucs, .501 for the Cards.

What does that mean? Probably not much. Over the last 48 games of the season, those differences translate into an extra half a win or so for the Reds over the Pirates, and a little less for the Pirates over the Cardinals. Which doesn't mean that the current standings are set in stone, just that the final standings will be determined on the field of play, not by the schedule-makers.

Two Fun Things About Alex Rodriguez

1. A lot of people in New York have been hoping Girardi won't play him. Two things about that. First, as I've pointed out, Yankee third baseman have been the worst in the majors this year. If the team's going to make the playoffs--despite the injuries, the ineffectiveness of every starter not named Kuroda or Nova, and the circus surrounding you-know-who, they're only five games out of the wild card--even an old creaking Rodriguez would be a massive upgrade. Second, it's not like Yankee managers have been averse to putting the best team on the field. 

2. Did you that under his contract, he gets a $6 million bonus for passing Willie Mays on the all-time home run list? Current standings: Mays 660, Rodriguez 647.

The Worst by Position - Review

To review, I looked at each position to figure out which are the worst by position. That logic doesn't work for the best by position. Nobody says the Yankees are really good at second base, or the Tigers' third basemen hit a ton, or the Pirates are led by their centerfielders. That's because the best at every position is an individual who plays pretty much every game there for his team. The worst, though...that's a team effort, since the worst player in baseball at his position doesn't keep his job, usually. My picks, with links to the original articles, are:
Catcher: Seattle
First Base: Milwaukee
Second Base: Toronto
Third Base: Yankees
Shortstop: Mets
Left Field: Yankees
Center Field: Houston
Right Field: Houston

The biggest surprise to me in compiling this list: No Miami. They're not the train wreck of a team that started the season 14-41 (a pace that'd break the 1962 Mets' record for losses). Did you know Miami's 29-25 since the end of May? Still, their offense is borderline historically awful. Yet when I ran the numbers, I didn't find a single position where the Marlins' players were the worst in baseball (though I might change my mind about catcher if I were to do it today).

Trailing 30 - August 4

Here is an explanation of this weekly post, which lists leaders for the past 30 days. This is possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application.

   American League            National League

   Team W-L                   Team W-L      

1. Tampa Bay       19-5     1. Los Angeles     20-5        

2. Detroit         17-7     2. Atlanta         17-9        

3. Cleveland       16-9     3. St. Louis      14-11         

4. Kansas City    15-10     4. Pittsburgh     14-12   

5. Oakland        14-10        New York       14-12        

   Worst Team W-L             Worst Team W-L

1. Houston         5-18     1. Philadelphia    9-15      

2. Chicago         6-20     2. Colorado       10-16       

3. Toronto         9-16     3. San Francisco  10-15      

4. Los Angeles    10-14     4. SD, Was, Mia   11-14

5. Minnesota      11-14        

   Batting Average            Batting Average     

1. Rasmus, Tor     .389     1. Werth, Was      .402        

2. Martinez, Det   .383     2. Johnson, Atl    .368             

3. Myers, TB       .380     3. Ramirez, LA     .330            

4. Trout, LA       .373     4. Lucroy, Mil     .329          

5. Morales, Sea    .360     5. Choo, Cin       .326       

   Lowest Batting Average     Lowest Batting Average             

1. Carter, Hou     .143     1. Parra, Ari      .143          

2. Plouffe, Min    .170     2. LaRoche, Was    .148         

3. Escobar, KC     .172     3. Fowler, Col     .176
4. Moreland, Tex   .179     4. Rendon, Was     .176           

5. Longoria, TB    .181     5. Weeks, Mil      .187            

   On-Base Percentage         On-Base Percentage                 

1. Trout, LA       .509     1. Werth, Was      .475            

2. Seager, Sea     .450     2. Votto, Cin      .460            

3. Myers, TB       .433     3. Goldschmidt, Ari.423         

4. Martinez, Det   .426     4. Davis, NY       .417              

5. Mauer, Min      .424     5. Choo, Cin       .412       

      

   Slugging Percentage        Slugging Percentage   

1. Hunter, Det     .722     1. Lucroy, Mil     .732        

2. Trout, LA       .639     2. Werth, Was      .683     

3. Saunders, Sea   .614     3. McCann, Atl     .603       

4. Encarnacion, Tor.600     4. McCutchen, Pit  .588       

5. Morales, Sea    .600     5. Ramirez, LA     .580        

          

   Home Runs                  Home Runs

1. Hunter, Det        8     1. Lucroy, Mil        8
   Davis, Bal         8     2. Werth, Was         7        

3. Beltre, Tex        7        Soriano, Chi       7          

   Jones, Bal         7        Uggla, Atl         7
5. 7 with             6     5. 4 with             6

   Runs                       Runs    

1. Seager, Sea       20     1. Votto, Cin        18        

2. Hunter, Det       19        Byrd, NY          18       

3. Trout, LA         18        Choo, Cin         18    

   Jones, Bal        18     4. 8 with            17
   Reyes, Tor        18

   RBI                        RBI      

1. Saunders, Sea     22     1. Goldschmidt, Ari  20        

2. Encarnacion, Tor  20        Murphy, NY        20      

   Hamilton, LA      20        Quentin, SD       20        

4. 3 with            19        Phillips, Cin     20        

                            5. 2 with            19        

   Stolen Bases               Stolen Bases             

1. Davis, Tor        10     1. Young, NY         12              

2. Rios, Chi          8        Gomez, Mil        12     

   Altuve, Hou        8     3. Marte, Pit         9     

   Andrus, Tex        8     4. Aoki, Mil          7   

5. 2 with             7     5. 4 with             6    

   Wins                       Wins   

1. 8 with             4     1. Liriano, Pit       5

                               Miley, Ari         4

                               Ryu, LA            4

                               Hudson, Atl        4
                            5. 16 with            3

   Saves                      Saves

1. Holland, KC       10     1. Kimbrel, Atl      10

2. Johnson, Bal       9     2. Mujica, StL        9

3. Balfour, Oak       8     3. Parnell, NY        8

   Perez, Cle         8        Gregg, Chi         8

   Rodney, TB         8        Jansen, LA         8

   ERA                        ERA

1. Kuroda, NY      0.55     1. Bumgarner, SF   1.50

2. Cosart, Hou     0.96     2. Minor, Atl      1.53

3. Hernandez, Sea  0.97     3. Kershaw, LA     1.66

4. Archer, TB      1.18     4. Liriano, Pit    1.71

5. Colon, Oak      1.57     5. Greinke, LA     1.75

   Worst ERA                  Worst ERA

1. Sabathia, NY    7.85     1. Kendrick, Phi   7.36

2. Rogers, Tor     6.43     2. Medlen, Atl     6.75

3. Feldman, Bal    6.23     3. Volquez, SD     6.67

4. Dempster, Bos   6.15     4. Hefner, NY      6.25

5. Gibson, Min     6.12     5. Zimmermann, Was 5.81

   WHIP                       WHIP

1. Price, TB       0.72     1. Kershaw, LA     0.63

2. Archer, TB      0.76     2. Harvey, NY      0.76

3. Chen, KC        0.77     3. Minor, Atl      0.79

4. Moore, TB       0.83     4. Greinke, LA     0.81
5. Hernandez, Sea  0.90     5. Jackson, Chi    0.87

   Strikeouts                 Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi         41     1. Fernandez, Mia    44       

2. Nova, NY          37     2. Lincecum, SF      41

   Weaver, LA        37     3. Corbin, Ari       40

4. Hernandez, Sea    36     4. Bumgarner, SF     39

5. 2 with            35        Liriano, Pit      39

The Worst by Position - Right Field

There are really three contenders, as I see it: Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Houston. (The Diamondbacks' right fielders haven't done much offensively but Geraldo Parra and Cody Ross have been a great duo defensively.) Those three teams are 30th, 29th, and 28th in batting average. They're 29th, 28th, and 30th in on-base percentage. They're 28th, 26th, and 30th in slugging. Oakland's problem has been whatever-happened-to-Josh-Reddick. Pittsburgh, which reportedly tried to upgrade right at the trade deadline, has gone primarily with perennial disappointments Travis Snider and Jose Tabata, though Snider, who seems to have been around forever, is only 25, and Tabata doesn't turn 25 until next week. So I'm going with Houston right fielders, who've hit only eight homers (second-fewest in baseball) despite playing in a homer-friendly park, are fourth in strikeouts and 27th in walks, and have had such a hard time with the position that they've had twelve players out there, easily the most in the majors.

The Worst by Position - Center Field

Let's wrap up this series - new Trailing 30 to post.

When you look at the worst by position, it's amazing how many teams have really bad hitters at each position. There are nine teams whose centerfielders have an on-base percentage of .302 or less. That's 30% of teams, and it's really bad, for what is probably the most important offensive statistic. (I'll get around explaining why one of these days for those of you who are skeptics). So guys like Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gomez are really exceptions to the rule.

As for the other end of the spectrum, there are six teams (Mets, Braves, Twins, Giants, Marlins, and Astros) who've gotten almost nothing in terms of offense from their center fielders. The Mets have settled on Juan Lagares, who's been decent and is pulling up the overall statistics. For the Braves, BJ Upton was probably the worst position player in baseball for April and May but showed signs of life starting in June before getting hurt; he's back in the lineup now. The Twins have finally thrown in the towel on rookie Aaron Hicks, sending him and his .192 BA, .259 OBP, and .338 SLG to AAA on Thursday. The Giants have had a black hole in center since Angel Pagan got hurt, but they've had great fielding at a key defensive position all season. So it's between the Houston and Miami...pretty close. The Astros CFs are 27th in BA, 28th in OBP, 30th in SLG. Marlins are 28th, 30th, and 27th. Both have been below-average defensively--Houston by a lot, depending on your choice of defensive metrics. I'm going to go with the Astros, on the basis of two bonuses: First, they've hit fewer homers, struck out more, and walked less than Miami; and second, they're the only center fielders who have been successful at fewer than half of their stolen base attempts, swiping eight and getting caught a major league-leading ten times.

The Worst by Position - Left Field

You could make a good case that Yankee shortstops have been the worst in baseball this season. You could make a good case--I have--that Yankee third basemen have been the worst in baseball this season. And I'm making the case here that Yankee left fielders have been the worst in baseball this year. They are 28th in batting at .224. They are last in on-base percentage at .269. They are 29th in slugging at .333. Vernon Wells had a hot April (.300 BA, .366 OBP, .544 SLG, 6 HR, 13 RBI) and since then has been awful. Zoilo Almonte has done nothing. Ichiro played 8 games in left and collected 6 singles in 30 at bats. Heck, the Marlins, whose primary left-fielder is the powerless Juan Pierre, have almost the same slugging percentage (.330).

What's amazing about this is that the Yankees have three positions that are absolute black holes, arguably the worst in baseball, and they're still five games above .500 and only 3.5 back in the wild card chase.