Irrefutable Proof that the All-Star Break is Too Long

This qualifies as news.

Is CC the New Sandman?

The injury-riddled New York Yankees entered the All-Star break on a low note, losing to the Minnesota Twins 10-4. It was CC Sabathia’s first loss against the Twins since 2007, and left the Yankees in fourth place. ESPN Stats & Info tweeted,

Last time the Yankees entered the All-Star Break in 4th place was in 1995. Their starting pitcher last game before break- Mariano Rivera
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 15, 2013

Here’s the box score from that game. Fun fact: After his no-decision, Mariano Rivera had pitched 29 innings and allowed 20 earned runs for a 6.21 ERA.

That was then: Over his last 29 innings, he's allowed six earned runs, a 1.86 ERA. Or look at those 20 earned runs: It’s taken him over two years, all the way back to April 24, 2011 to amass the same earned run total that he allowed over the first half of his rookie season of 1995. (OK, I know, he missed almost all of last year with a knee injury, but still.)

Trailing 30 - July 14, 2013

I imagine a lot of baseball fans know that Yasiel Puig was the NL Player of the Month for June. He was a great player for 30 days. But those 30 days are an arbitrary distinction. They give out only six Player of the Month awards, but there are about 150 30-day periods during the season. Who's been hot (and cold) over the past month? To help answer that, I'm going to publish, every Sunday, leaders for the past 30 days. This is possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. I'm going to list mostly fantasy baseball-related statistics, but I encourage you to go on the site and play around. You can pull up almost every stat imaginable, or even create your own, for all sorts of splits.

   American League            National League

   Team W-L                   Team W-L      

1. Tampa Bay     19-10     1. Los Angeles    19-9         

2. Cleveland     18-11     2. Pittsburgh     17-9        

3. Boston        17-11     3. Miami         16-11          

4. Los Angeles   16-10     4. Chicago       16-12    

5. Tex, Tor      16-12     5. New York      16-13         

   Worst Team W-L             Worst Team W-L

1. Chicago        9-19     1. San Diego      9-20       

   Minnesota      9-19     2. San Francisco  9-19        

3. Houston       10-16     3. Colorado      10-18        

4. Kansas City   12-15        Milwaukee     10-18 

5. Seattle       13-14     5. Cincinnati    12-15     

   Batting Average            Batting Average     

1. Trout, LA      .392     1. Ramirez, LA    .408         

2. Cabrera, Det   .387     2. Revere, Phi    .380              

3. Kipnis, Cle    .385     3. Posey, SF      .366             

4. Beltre, Tex    .360     4. Puig, LA       .363           

5. Ellsbury, Bos  .358     5. Craig, SL      .359        

   Lowest Batting Average     Lowest Batting Average             

1. Barnes, Hou    .169     1. Parra, Ari     .190           

2. Reynolds, Cle  .172     2. Pence, SF      .195          

3. Cespedes, Oak  .190     3. Ruggiano, Mia  .195                

4. Crisp, Oak     .193     4. Martin, Pit    .203            

5. Longoria, TB   .195     5. Ozuna, Mia     .204             

   On-Base Percentage         On-Base Percentage                 

1. Trout, LA      .487     1. Ramirez, LA    .465             

2. Kipnis, Cle    .479     2. Werth, Was     .434             

3. Cabrera, Det   .476     3. Posey, SF      .430          

4. Cano, NY       .457     4. Wright, NY     .425               

5. Ortiz, Bos     .425     5. Votto, Cin     .417         

      

   Slugging Percentage        Slugging Percentage   

1. Cabrera, Det   .774     1. Ramirez, LA    .728         

2. Davis, Bal     .758     2. Alvarez, Pit   .663      

3. Ibanez, Sea    .695     3. Posey, SF      .624        

4. Kipnis, Cle    .625     4. Soriano, Chi   .604        

5. Trout, LA      .619     5. McCann, Atl    .595         

          

   Home Runs                  Home Runs

1. Davis, Bal       15     1. Alvarez, Pit     10           

2. Cabrera, Det     12     2. Soriano, Chi      9         

3. Ibanez, Sea      11     3. Bruce, Cin        8           

4. 5 with            7     4. 4 with            7         

   Runs                       Runs    

1. Jackson, Det     23     1. Ramirez, LA      23        

2. Davis, Bal       22     2. Carpenter, SL    21        

3. Cabrera, Det     21        Puig, LA         21     

   Seager, Sea      21     4. Soriano, Chi     19       

   Jennings, TB     21     5. 3 with           18          

   RBI                        RBI      

1. Davis, Bal       33     1. Alvarez, Pit     24         

2. Cabrera, Det     26        Craig, SL        24       

3. Cruz, Tex        25     3. Ramirez, LA      22         

4. Kipnis, Cle      24     4. Soriano, Chi     21        

5. Ibanez, Sea      23     5. 5 with           19         

   Stolen Bases               Stolen Bases             

1. Davis, Tor       13     1. Marte, Pit        8               

2. Martin, Tex      11        Gomez, Mil        8      

   Altuve, Hou      11        Young, NY         8      

4. Rios, Chi         9        Segura, Mil       8    

5. 4 with            7        Murphy, NY        8     

   Wins                       Wins   

1. Moore, Tor        5     1. Garza, Chi        5

   Wilson, LA        5        Bumgarner, SF     5

   Tillman, Bal      5        Greinke, LA       5

4. 6 with            4     4. 4 with            4

                               

   Saves                      Saves

1. Nathan, Tex      10     1. Cichek, Mia      10

2. Rodney, TB        9        Gregg, Chi       10

   Holland, KC       9     3. Kimbrel, Atl      8

   Johnson, Bal      9        Papelbon, Phi     8

5. 2 with            8     5. 3 with            7

   ERA                        ERA

1. Doubront, Bos  1.91     1. Garza, Chi     1.24

2. Hellickson, TB 1.97     2. Liriano, Pit   1.56

3. Wilson, LA     2.04     3. Locke, Pit     1.60

4. Colon, Oak     2.19     4. Teheran, Atl   1.76

5. Kuroda, NY     2.30     5. Chacin, Col    1.78

   Worst ERA                  Worst ERA

1. Grimm, Tex     8.69     1. Lynn, SL       6.00

2. Iwakuma, Sea   6.83     2. Marcum, NY     5.83

3. Harrell, Hou   6.46     3. Samardzjia, Chi5.73

4. Guthrie, KC    5.80     4. Volquez, SD    5.45

5. Lester, Bos    5.75     5. Medlen, Atl    5.35

   WHIP                       WHIP

1. Parker, Oak    0.77     1. Bumgarner, SF  0.74

2. Nova, NY       0.92     2. Kershaw, LA    0.76

3. Doubront, Bos  1.00     3. Corbin, Ari    0.85

4. Lackey, Bos    1.02     4. Leake, Cin     0.85

5. Hellickson, TB 1.03     5. Wood, Chi      0.91

   Strikeouts                 Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi        59     1. Latos, Cin       49        

2. Scherzer, Det    46     2. Lincecum, SF     47

3. Masterson, Cle   45     3. Harvey, NY       45

4. Moore, TB        44     4. Bumgarner, SF    43

5. Lackey, Bos      41        Kershaw, LA      43

Could the Braves Blow It?

Two things about the Braves:

1. They have the largest lead of the six division leaders, with the fourth-best run differential in baseball.
2. They're kind of limping into the All-Star Break, losers of six of their last ten, and their entire starting outfield is hurt.

The Braves' recent struggles, combined with improved play from the one-last-hurrah Phillies and a return to health of most of the Nationals, has raised the hopes of the Braves' mid-Atlantic rivals.

But still. They enter today's play six up on the Nats, seven up on the Phils. Neither has been a particularly good club. The preseason favorite Nationals are 47-46 and have given up 16 more runs than they've scored. The Phillies are 46-47 and have given up 46 more than they've scored. The Braves are 53-40 and have scored 79 more than they've allowed. And the injured starting outfielders--Justin Upton, BJ Upton, Jason Heyward--well, they haven't been all that good. In fact, yet another injured Braves outfielder, Jordan Schafer, out with a stress fracture, has surpassed all three of the starters in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Justin Upton, after a Player-of-the-Month April, has batted .238 with a .333 on-base percentage and .353 slugging percentage. Those are basically Brian Dozier numbers. J-Hey has battled injuries and put up a numbers similar to Justin's post-April. And Bossman Junior has been one of the worst position players in the majors: .177 BA, .266 OBP, .300 SLG. Five pitchers with 20 or more plate appearances have surpassed those figures. The Braves have succeeded because of Freddie Freeman's bat, Andrelton Simmons's glove, and the second-best team ERA in the National League, not their outfield.

Washington and Philadelphia fans hold out hope, though. After all, it's not like the Braves haven't blown a lead before.

But is their hope realistic? I looked at every team since the beginning of divisional play in 1969 that had at least a six game lead on July 13. It's happened 54 times. How often have such teams failed to win their division?

Not very often, as it turns out:

• In 1973, the Reds overcame a six-game Dodgers lead behind MVP Pete Rose.
• In 1978, the Yankees roared back from eight behind the Red Sox in one of the most famous comebacks in history.
• In 1979, the Reds duplicated their 1973 feat, this time topping the Astros.
• In 1985, the Angels finished a game behind the Royals after leading by six.
• In 1993, another famous season, the Giants, who held a nine-game lead on July 13, finished 103-59 but a game behind the Braves, who played .740 ball the rest of the season.
• In 2003, the Twins reversed a seven-game lead by the Royals on July 13 to finish seven games ahead at the end of the season. (Yes, this means that ten years ago, the Twins and Royals were both good teams.)

That's it. Six teams have come back from six behind on July 13 out of 54 times. One in nine. Good luck, Nationals and Phillies.

This is What I Don't Get About Bud

Bud Selig will leave a controversial legacy. The 1994 strike, but ensuing labor peace. Foot-dragging on instant replay, but MLB Advanced Media as best-in-class. Record TV contracts. Expanded playoffs. Interleague play. Agree or not - and there are a lot of "nots," for me, and probably you too - you could at least kind of understand what he was trying to accomplish.

Except Biogenesis.

I get it about PEDs and all that. I had a bad year in 1998, and the Summer of Love and Longballs was the best part of the year for me, by far. Turns out my highlight was fake. Now, I can't stand the sight of McGwire and Sosa.

But Biogenesis...Just about everything Selig's done, it's been to promote the business of baseball. We can argue about the tradeoffs of making the All-Star game "count," or having two wildcards, or perpetual interleague play, but the underlying idea is marketing.

It just feels like Biogenesis runs counter. What does it do for the sport to have this steady drip, drip, drip of information about MLB's strategy? Why on earth do you leak to the press before the All-Star Game that you're going to suspend players after the All-Star Game? Doesn't that just guarantee that all the All-Star Game press conferences become PED forums? And cement the idea in the public's mind that baseball still has a huge drug problem, when in fact the league has (arguably) the most stringent drug testing of the major team sports?

And did anyone think through how this could play out? If there's anything we've learned in the Bonds and Clemens trials, it's that pretty much everybody involved in PEDs is a slimeball. Biogenesis is not any different. What happens if an arbitrator finds the league's witnesses unreliable and boots the case? That's essentially what the courts did with Bonds and Clemens. Then baseball has made Biogenesis and PEDs the core story of the 2013 season, with nothing to show for it. That'd be like hanging a big "WE ABUSE DRUGS" banner over the mlb.com website. Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until the offseason to build a stronger case (unless MLB has found a credible witness that they're not telling anybody about) and not detract from the product on the field?

What am I missing? Why make Biogensis the main story of the season? I'm not saying ignore it, but why the biweekly updates? Not a way to run a business to maximize revenues, if you ask me.

A Historical Context for Puigmania

Yasiel Puig is in the Final Vote for the last spot on the National League All-Star roster. You can vote for him as often as you want here.

I call this blog On the Field of Play because I'm mostly going to write about what happens on the field. Don't come here for expositions on PEDs, the Hall of Fame, the award votes, player salaries, Commissioner Bud, or the All-Star Game selection process. Regarding the latter, there's a school of thought that says you should pick the players having the best seasons to date, and another school of thought that says you should pick the game's biggest stars. Call it Chris Davis and Carlos Gomez vs. Prince Fielder and Andrew McCutchen. I can see the validity of both arguments, and I don't feel like adding anything to the debate.

Puig has been the most controversial of potential All-Stars, given how he's rocketed onto the scene in the last month. One side says he's one of the game's most exciting players, and the other side says come on, we're talking about a guy who's got 140 plate appearances in the majors.

Of course, they've been highly impactful plate appearances, as he's batting .409 with eight doubles, eight homers, 26 runs, 19 RBI, and a .667 slugging percentage. In June, in limited play (his first game was June 3), he hit .436, had seven homers, ran wild on the basepaths and in the outfield, catapulted the Dodgers back into the pennant race with a 15-11 record since his call-up (that passes for red hot in the NL West),  eased traffic on the 5 and the 10, and was the first player to be named both Player of the Month and Rookie of the Month since Mike Trout did it last July for the other Los Angeles team.

Regardless of whether that should warrant a trip to Citi Field next week, is this a historically great performance?

I looked for players who matched Puig's top hitting stats in June: 44 hits, 7 homers, 16 RBI, 19 runs scored. Surprisingly, it's not all that uncommon. There have been 219 months in which hitters have matched or exceeded all of those figures. Bob Johnson had 63 hits in August 1938. Mickey Mantle hit 16 homers in May 1956. Hack Wilson had 53 RBI in August 1930, and Joe DiMaggio matched the figure exactly nine years later. Babe Ruth scored 45 runs in July 1920. Again, all of those players at least matched Puig in every category. A lot of them exceeded him.

But Puig, because of his call-up and the Dodgers' schedule, played only 26 games in June. Almost all the players on the list played the full month, many at a time when there were regularly doubleheaders in the schedule. SO they played a lot more games than Puig. Johnson had 40 games in which to compile his 63 hits, and Ruth scored 45 runs in 34 games. If I narrow the criteria to 26 games, I get a much smaller list:

Rk	Player	Split	Year	G	H	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Josh Hamilton	June	2010	26	49	23	9	31	.454	.482	.815
2	Lou Gehrig	June	1936	26	48	35	12	31	.453	.536	.934
3	Dustin Pedroia	July	2011	26	46	27	8	22	.411	.465	.723
4	Chuck Klein	May	1929	26	45	31	11	34	.413	.448	.789
5	Magglio Ordonez	July	2003	26	45	22	7	24	.429	.474	.771
6	Stan Spence	Sept/Oct	1944	26	44	21	7	25	.436	.491	.782
7	Yasiel Puig	June	2013	26	44	19	7	16	.436	.467	.713

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/10/2013.

That's an impressive set of comparables. Gehrig and Klein are in the Hall, Hamilton and Pedroia both were MVPs, and Ordonez made six All-Star teams and was top-12 in the MVP vote four times. Shane Spence was a solid player who had five really good years, though three were during World War II. Puig is the only rookie on the list.

Interestingly, Puig's numbers have been handily exceeded twice in the past three years. And Pedroia didn't even make the All-Star team in 2011.

So what we're seeing is rare, but not unprecedented. And Yasiel, about the 405...

One for Nine, One Strikeout, Two GIDPs

Barring injury, Alex Rodriguez is coming back to Yankees this month. That isn't speculation; it's a rule. He's started a minor league rehabilitation assignment (during which he's compiled the stats in the headline). Once a player begins a rehab assignment, his team must activate or place him back on the disabled list in 20 days. Headline writers for the Post and Daily News are counting the days.

Yes, yes, I know, Alex Rodriguez. But consider the alternative. Yankees third basemen this year :

• .228 batting average, fourth-worst in the American League
• .290 on-base percentage, sixth-worst
• .309 slugging percentage, worst
• Four home runs, tied for worst

Alex Rodriguez's worst year was last year, easily. He missed a quarter of the Yankees' games, batting .272 with a .353 on-base percentage, .430 slugging percentage, and 18 home runs. Yankee third basemen were third in batting, second in on-base, third in slugging, and third in home runs.

And Rodriguez isn't the only Yankee on a rehab assignment. To date, Yankee shortstops are second-to-last in batting (.212), third-to last in on-base percentage (.272), second-to-last in slugging (.287), with two home runs.