No, not because Troy Tulowitzki is a father:
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
Trailing 30 - June 15
Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Chris Sale's WHIP is ridiculous.
American League National League
Team W-L Team W-L
1. Toronto 18-9 1. Pittsburgh 17-11
2. Houston 18-10 2. San Francisco 16-10
3. Kansas City 15-11 3. Chicago 14-12
Los Angeles 15-11 St. Louis 14-12
Oakland 15-11 5. LA, Milwaukee 14-13
Worst Team W-L Worst Team W-L
1. Tampa Bay 7-19 1. Colorado 9-16
2. Detroit 10-17 San Diego 9-16
3. Boston 11-16 3. New York 11-16
4. Minnesota 12-14 4. Philadelphia 12-15
Chicago 12-14 5. Ari, Atl, Cin 13-14
Batting Average Batting Average
1. Chisenhall, Cle .400 1. Lucroy, Mil .377
2. Cano, Sea .378 2. McCutchen, Pit .346
3. Beltre, Tex .378 3. Gomez, Mil .340
4. Brantley, Cle .378 4. Carpenter, SL .340
5. Cabrera, Det .370 5. Prado, Ari .337
Lowest Batting Average Lowest Batting Average
1. Lowrie, Oak .147 1. Peralta, SL .189
2. Ortiz, Bal .163 2. Cabrera, SD .198
3. Viciedo, Chi .184 3. Howard, Phi .202
4. Mauer, Min .202 4. Reynolds, Mil .202
4. Mauer, Min .202 4. Reynolds, Mil .202
5. Choo, Tex .202 5. BJ Upton, Atl .210
On-Base Percentage On-Base Percentage
1. Gordon, KC .455 1. McCutchen, Pit .447
2. Bautista, Tor .453 2. Lucroy, Mil .427
3. Brantley, Cle .452 3. Carpenter, SL .424
4. Chisenhall, Cle .434 4. Granderson, NY .417
5. Cano, Sea .430 5. Rizzo, Chi .410
Slugging Percentage Slugging Percentage
1. Chisenhall, Cle .722 1. McCutchen, Pit .654
2. Encarnacion, Tor.695 2. Davis, Mil .640
3. Cruz, Bal .670 3. Goldschmidt, Ari.633
4. Cabrera, Det .670 4. Lucroy, Mil .604
5. Trout, LA .663 5. Stanton, Mia .598
Home Runs Home Runs
1. Encarnacion, Tor 12 1. Desmond, Was 8
2. Cruz, Bal 9 2. 6 with 7
2. Cruz, Bal 9 2. 6 with 7
Springer, Hou 9
4. 4 with 8
Runs Runs
1. Brantley, Cle 27 1. 6 with 20
2. Springer, Hou 23
3. Donaldson, Oak 20
4. 4 with 19
4. 4 with 19
RBI RBI
1. Chisenhall, Cle 28 1. Goldschmidt, Ari 24
2. Encarnacion, Tor 24 2. McCutchen, Pit 22
Springer, Hou 24 3. Ozuna, Mia 20
4. Trout, LA 22 Brown, Phi 20
5. 5 with 20 Desmond, Was 20
5. 5 with 20 Desmond, Was 20
Stolen Bases Stolen Bases
1. Altuve, Hou 11 1. Gordon, LA 11
2. Reyes, Tor 10 Hamilton, Cin 11
3. Ellsbury, NY 7 3. 4 with 6
4. 4 with 6
Saves Saves
1. Holland, KC 9 1. Kimbrel, Atl 9
Robertson, NY 9 Chapman, Cin 9
Janssen, Tor 9 3. 4 with 7
4. Soria, Tex 8
5. Rodney, Sea 7
5. Rodney, Sea 7
ERA ERA
1. Archer, TB 1.27 1. Alvarez, Mia 0.34
2. Hernandez, Sea 1.34 2. Hudson, SF 1.24
3. Keuchel, Hou 1.43 3. Colon, NY 1.78
4. Sale, Chi 1.69 4. Bumgarner, SF 1.80
5. Kazmir, Oak 1.72 5. Arrieta, Chi 1.82
Worst ERA Worst ERA
1. Verlander, Det 7.39 1. Estrada, Mil 6.67
2. Deduno, Min 7.16 2. Burnett, Phi 6.12
3. Lewis, Tex 6.59 3. Turner, Mia 6.08
4. Jiminez, Bal 6.21 4. Santana, Atl 6.03
5. Nolasco, Min 6.04 5. Buchanan, Phi 5.97
WHIP WHIP
1. Sale, Chi 0.53 1. Bumgarner, SF 0.80
2. Keuchel, Hou 0.82 2. Lohse, Mil 0.82
3. Hernandez, Sea 0.83 3. Wainwright, SL 0.85
4. Sanchez, Det 0.83 4. Hamels, Phi 0.92
5. Hughes, Min 0.94 5. Cueto, Cin 0.93
5. Hughes, Min 0.94 5. Cueto, Cin 0.93
Strikeouts Strikeouts
1. Hernandez, Sea 52 1. Kershaw, LA 46
2. Price, TB 41 Hamels, Phi 46
3. Sale, Chi 39 3. Strasburg, Was 43
4. Kluber, Cle 38 4. Wheeler, NY 38
5. Tanaka, NY 37 5. Jackson, Chi 37
Thursday, June 12, 2014
What's Going On With: Phil Hughes
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 26 | NYY | AL | 16 | 13 | .552 | 4.19 | 32 | 32 | 191.1 | 196 | 89 | 35 | 46 | 165 | 101 | 1.265 |
| 2013 | 27 | NYY | AL | 4 | 14 | .222 | 5.19 | 30 | 29 | 145.2 | 170 | 84 | 24 | 42 | 121 | 78 | 1.455 |
| 2014 | 28 | MIN | AL | 6 | 2 | .750 | 3.46 | 12 | 12 | 75.1 | 76 | 29 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 117 | 1.115 |
What's The Story? The Twins signed Phil Hughes as a free agent over the winter. I wrote about it here. Hughes had been a promising young pitcher with the Yankees, making the All-Star team in 2010 when he went 18-8. In 2009 and 2010 - he turned 24 during the 2010 season - he was a combined 26-11 with a 3.81 ERA and a 116 ERA+, indicating that his ERA, adjusted for playing in Yankee Stadium, was 16% better than the league average. But from 2011-2013, he went 25-32, and his 4.83 ERA was 14% worse than the league average adjusted for Yankee Stadium. Hughes has always been a fly ball pitcher--about two fly balls for every ground ball during his career, compared to a league average of about five to four--and a lot of his fly balls left Yankee Stadium. As I wrote when the Twins acquired him,
Hughes isn't an elite pitcher. But he's probably better than what he was last year, and the move out of the Bronx should help him keep more balls in the park. By the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers were better than league average.
If You Don't Want to Read All the Rest of This: He's a fastball pitcher, but he's changed his No. 2 offering from a slider to a cut fastball. He's getting (I hesitate to say "as a result") batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, and he's allowing a lot fewer home runs, likely helped by Target Field.
What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year Fastball Change Curve Slider Sinker Cutter Splitter
2012 64% 17% 16% 2% 0% 0% 0%
2013 60% 8% 11% 19% 0% 0% 1%
2014 63% 1% 11% 0% 4% 21% 0%
Against Righties:
Year Fastball Change Curve Slider Sinker Cutter Splitter
2012 67% 2% 19% 9% 1% 3% 0%
2013 63% 1% 5% 30% 0% 0% 1%
2014 59% 0% 10% 0% 3% 28% 0%
Overall:
Year Fastball Change Curve Slider Sinker Cutter Splitter
2012 65% 10% 17% 5% 0% 2% 0%
2013 61% 5% 9% 24% 0% 0% 1%
2014 61% 1% 11% 0% 4% 24% 0%
So what's changed with Hughes? Two things stand out here.
Year Zone% O-Swing% HR/FB%
2012 51.3% 33.5% 12.4%
2013 53.4% 29.7% 11.1%
2014 59.4% 35.6% 6.8%
Career 53.6% 30.2% 9.9%
One, he's getting more strikes. Remember the rule: It's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. So far this year, 59% of Hughes' pitches are in the strike zone (Zone%), and he's getting batters to swing at 36% of pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). Those rank him No. 1 and No. 4 among American League starters. Last year he was No. 3 at throwing strikes but only 27 (out of 55 pitchers with over 140 innings pitched) at getting swings outside the zone.
The second thing is that his home runs allowed are way down. He was 22nd among 36 AL ERA qualifiers at keeping fly balls in the park in 2012 and 30th among 55 pitchers with 140+ innings pitched in 2013. This year he's tenth among 42 ERA qualifiers. He's gone from below-average to one of the best.
By getting more strikes and allowing fewer homers (the change from homer-friendly Yankee Stadium to pitcher-friendly Target Field helped), Hughes has gone from one of the worst starters in the league to one of the best.
What Does the Future Hold? Hughes has always been good at throwing strikes. His success in getting swings outside the strike zone is new. Perhaps the new cutter's helped.
His improvement at preventing home runs is important, but I have a hard time seeing him sustaining it, at least at his current level. The average American League pitcher this year gives up home runs on 9.6% of fly balls, well above Hughes's 6.8% rate. There is nothing in his past to suggest he can remain this stingy. Regression toward the league average would still give the Twins a good starter who won't be 28 until later this year.
2013 53.4% 29.7% 11.1%
2014 59.4% 35.6% 6.8%
Career 53.6% 30.2% 9.9%
One, he's getting more strikes. Remember the rule: It's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. So far this year, 59% of Hughes' pitches are in the strike zone (Zone%), and he's getting batters to swing at 36% of pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). Those rank him No. 1 and No. 4 among American League starters. Last year he was No. 3 at throwing strikes but only 27 (out of 55 pitchers with over 140 innings pitched) at getting swings outside the zone.
The second thing is that his home runs allowed are way down. He was 22nd among 36 AL ERA qualifiers at keeping fly balls in the park in 2012 and 30th among 55 pitchers with 140+ innings pitched in 2013. This year he's tenth among 42 ERA qualifiers. He's gone from below-average to one of the best.
By getting more strikes and allowing fewer homers (the change from homer-friendly Yankee Stadium to pitcher-friendly Target Field helped), Hughes has gone from one of the worst starters in the league to one of the best.
What Does the Future Hold? Hughes has always been good at throwing strikes. His success in getting swings outside the strike zone is new. Perhaps the new cutter's helped.
His improvement at preventing home runs is important, but I have a hard time seeing him sustaining it, at least at his current level. The average American League pitcher this year gives up home runs on 9.6% of fly balls, well above Hughes's 6.8% rate. There is nothing in his past to suggest he can remain this stingy. Regression toward the league average would still give the Twins a good starter who won't be 28 until later this year.
(All figures are before yesterday's 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K performance against Toronto.)
Sweet Play of the Day - Tom Hamilton Edition
The Indians radio announcer and a walkoff home run. Can't be better than that. Somehow I missed this call on June 1. Scroll to 1:34 in the video.
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Trailing 30 - June 8
Sorry for the radio silence. Day job. Will try to post more over the next couple weeks.
Anyway, here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application.
Anyway, here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of Fangraphs and its fabulous Leaders application.
American League National League
Team W-L Team W-L
1. Toronto 20-8 1. San Francisco 19-8
2. Oakland 18-9 2. Pittsburgh 15-12
3. Los Angeles 17-11 3. Milwaukee 15-13
4. Houston* 16-12 4. Atlanta 14-13
5. Cleveland 15-11 5. Arizona 14-13
* No, really.
* No, really.
Worst Team W-L Worst Team W-L
1. Tampa Bay 9-19 1. Colorado 7-17
2. Boston 10-17 2. Philadelphia 10-17
3. Baltimore 13-15 3. New York 12-17
Detroit 13-15 4. Miami 12-15
New York 13-15 5. Washington 12-14
Batting Average Batting Average
1. Cano, Sea .396 1. Pollock, Ari .392
2. Chisenhall, Cle .379 2. Lucroy, Mil .365
3. Gillaspie, Chi .370 3. Puig, LA .364
4. Cabrera, Det .370 4. Prado, Ari .353
5. Altuve, Hou .366 5. Gomez, Mil .345
Lowest Batting Average Lowest Batting Average
1. Smoak, Sea .160 1. Hicks, SF .173
2. Pujols, LA .185 2. Young, NY .173
3. Lowrie, Oak .191 3. Espinosa, Was .175
4. Dunn, Chi .192 4. Gyorko, SD .185
4. Dunn, Chi .192 4. Gyorko, SD .185
5. Bradley, Bos .193 5. Byrd, Phi .196
On-Base Percentage On-Base Percentage
1. Gordon, KC .475 1. Puig, LA .462
2. Fowler, Cle .472 2. Pollock, SD .442
3. Cano, Sea .430 3. Lucroy, Mil .422
4. Cabrera, Det .427 4. Gomez, Mil .421
5. Gillaspie, Chi .427 5. Smith, SD .418
Slugging Percentage Slugging Percentage
1. Cruz, Bal .757 1. Puig, LA .707
2. Encarnacion, Tor.737 2. Pollock Ari .684
3. Moss, Oak .713 3. Davis, Mil .622
4. Cabrera, Det .670 4. Smith, SD .597
5. Donaldson, Oak .643 5. Pence, SF .587
Home Runs Home Runs
1. Encarnacion, Tor 13 1. Frazier, Cin 8
2. Cruz, Bal 12 Desmond, Was 8
2. Cruz, Bal 12 Desmond, Was 8
3. Donaldson, Oak 10 3. Puig, LA 7
Moss, Oak 10 Tulowitzki, Col 7
Springer, Hou 10 5. 7 with 6
Springer, Hou 10 5. 7 with 6
Runs Runs
1. Donladson, Oak 26 1. Pence, SF 20
2. Kinsler, Det 22 Pagan, SF 20
3. Springer, Hou 21 3. 6 with 19
Brantley, Cle 21
5. 2 with 20
Brantley, Cle 21
5. 2 with 20
RBI RBI
1. Springer, Hou 27 1. Craig, SL 22
2. Donaldson, Oak 26 2. Goldschmidt, Ari 21
Cabrera, Det 26 Howard, Phi 21
Encarnacion, Tor 26 4. Sandoval, SF 20
Cruz, Bal 26 5. Ramirez, LA 20
Cruz, Bal 26 5. Ramirez, LA 20
Stolen Bases Stolen Bases
1. Altuve, Hou 10 1. Gordon, LA 15
2. Reyes, Tor 8 2. Hamilton, Cin 12
Ellsbury, NY 8 3. Pollock, Ari 7
4. 3 with 7 Gomez, Mil 7
5. 2 with 6
Saves Saves
1. Janssen, Tor 11 1. Chapman, Cin 8
2. Holland, KC 9 Melancon, Pit 8
3. Robertson, NY 9 Romo, SF 8
4. Perkins, Min 8 Street, SD 8
5. 2 with 7 5. 2 with 7
5. 2 with 7 5. 2 with 7
ERA ERA
1. Keuchel, Hou 1.16 1. Roark, Was 1.77
2. Tanaka, NY 1.50 2. Minor, Atl 1.87
3. Darvish, Tex 1.86 3. Hudson, SF 1.93
4. Kazmir, Oak 2.05 4. Teheran, Atl 1.99
5. Milone, Oak 2.11 5. Hamels, Phi 2.11
Worst ERA Worst ERA
1. Tillman, Bal 7.31 1. Burnett, Phi 6.90
2. Peavy, Bos 7.04 2. Nicasio, Col 5.97
3. Verlander, Det 6.00 3. McCarthy, Ari 5.71
4. Correia, min 5.79 4. Koehler, Mia 5.53
5. Phelps, NY 5.71 5. Turner, Mia 5.46
WHIP WHIP
1. Keuchel, Hou 0.85 1. Bumgarner, SF 0.78
2. Kazmirr, Oak 0.91 2. Wainwright, SL 0.85
3. Hernandez, Sea 0.94 3. Roark, Was 0.86
4. Hughes, Min 0.95 4. Cueto, Cin 0.88
5. Tanaka, NY 0.95 5. Hammel, Chi 0.96
5. Tanaka, NY 0.95 5. Hammel, Chi 0.96
Strikeouts Strikeouts
1. Kluber, Cle 51 1. Hamels, Phi 45
2. Darvish, Tex 49 2. Bumgarner, SF 44
3. Odorizzi, TB 45 3. Greinke, LA 42
4. Price, TB 43 4. Teheran, Atl 40
5. Tanaka, NY 31 Ross, SD 40
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