Bizarro Baseball

The season's only a week old, and you can't conclude anything from five or so games. That being said, the National League standings as of this morning are weird.

• In the West, the Los Angeles Dodgers, picked by most people (including me) to lead the division with one of the best records in baseball, are in last with a 2-3 record. The Colorado Rockies, expected to battle with the Arizona Diamondbacks for last, are leading the division with a 4-1 record.
• In the Central, the Cincinnati Reds, largely viewed as a last-place team, are 4-1 and in first. The Pirates, seen challenging the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead, are tied with the Brewers for last at 1-4.
• In the East, the Washington Nationals are the consensus pick for first and a strong World Series candidate. They're tied with the Miami Marlins, who are expected to battle for second and a wild card spot, for last at 1-4. The Atlanta Braves, a rebuilding club anticipated to battle the Philadelphia Phillies for the worst record in the National League, are the senior circuit's only undefeated team at 5-0.

None of this, of course, will last. But it's been an exceptionally unpredictable start of the season.

This instability hasn't carried over to the American League. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, playoff teams last year, are undefeated at 5-0 in the Central division. The Boston Red Sox, seen as candidates for a worst-to-first bounceback season, lead the East at 4-1. The West, a hard division to predict, is a muddle, with two teams at 3-3 and three at 2-3.

The Very Model of a Modern Major League Bullpen

Through four games, the Pirates have used the following pitchers in relief:

Rk	Name	ERA	G ▾	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	WHIP
1	Tony Watson*	9.00	3	1	0	3.0	4	3	3	0	3	13	1.333
2	Jared Hughes	3.00	2	0	0	3.0	3	1	1	0	4	12	1.000
3	Rob Scahill	0.00	2	1	0	1.1	2	1	0	1	2	8	2.250
4	Radhames Liz	13.50	1	1	0	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	5	3.000
6	Arquimedes Caminero	0.00	3	0	0	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	5	0.000
7	Antonio Bastardo*	0.00	3	0	0	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	6	3.000
8	Mark Melancon	0.00	2	1	0	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	7	0.500

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 4/11/2015.

Do you notice anything? Let me show it a different way. Here's a list, by game, of Pirates relievers used:

• Monday April 6: Watson (1.0 innings)
• Wednesday April 8: Hughes (1.2 innings), Bastardo (0.0), Caminero (0.1), Watson (1.0), Scahill (1.0), Melancon (1.0), Liz (0.2)
• Thursday April 9: Caminero (0.2 innings), Bastardo (1.0), Watson (1.0), Scahill (0.1)
• Friday April 10: Hughes (1.1 innings), Bastardo (0.0), Caminero (0.2), Melancon (1.0)

Here's my point: Jared Hughes is the only Pirates reliever to have pitched more than inning so far this season. There have been 16 relief appearances, spread among seven pitchers, and in 87.5%, the pitcher's stayed in the game an inning or less.

This is in keeping with recent trends for the Pirates:

The percentage of relief appearances of one inning or less has been steadily increasing throughout the century. This isn't just a Pirates thing, it's a major league thing. Here's the same table for the entire National League:

We live in a baseball world in which there are roughly five relief appearances of an inning or less for every one that's over an inning. By contrast, for the 1979 Pirates (the last time the team won the World Series), only 51% of the team's 326 relief appearances were one inning or less. In fact, in that year, Pirates relievers earned saves in 26 games in which they pitched more than an inning. (17 by Kent Tekulve, five by Grant Jackson, four by Enrique Romo). Over the past ten years, there have been only seventeen such games for the Pirates: one in 2004, five in 2005, three in 2006, none in 2007-2010, three in 2011, two in 2012, three in 2013, none since. The last Pirate reliever to record a save pitching more than one inning was Ryan Reid, on June 28, 2013, when he pitched the last three innings of a 10-3 blowout victory over Milwaukee. (A pitcher who pitches the last three innings of a winning game gets a save, regardless of the score.) The other two long saves that season were thrown by Tony Watson, who pitched the last two innings of a 5-3 win over the Reds and a 6-4 victory against the Phillies.

All these relievers pitching short stints must be caused by starters not lasting long into games, right? It turns out that's not the case:

Starters are lasting longer than they did a decade ago. So the growing number of short relief appearances isn't because of a need to fill innings that starters aren't pitching. Rather, it's a tactical choice by teams: deploying a number of short-inning relievers who throw gas for a few pitches (every Pirates reliever's averaging over 90 mph on his fastball this year other than Melancon, who mostly throws changeups), then give way to somebody else who throws gas for a few pitches.

Again, this isn't a Pirates thing, a major league thing. But it contributes to two contemporary baseball scourges: Strikeouts (last year, National League relievers got strikeouts on 22.6% of opponents' plate appearances, compared to 19.5% of starters) and pace of play (for all those pitching changes).

0-3

The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:

• 1903: 3-0
• 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
• 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
• 1927: 3-0
• 1960: 1-2
• 1970: 1-2
• 1971: 3-0
• 1972: 1-2
• 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
• 1975: 3-0
• 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 1990: 2-1
• 1991: 2-1
• 1992: 2-1
• 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 2014: 2-1

So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.

They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.

Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday. 

When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one). 

Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.

Opening Day Lineups

Today, the Pirates are in Cincinnati again, taking on the Reds. I looked at Monday's Opening Day lineup. As befits a team that's both young and successful, there has been a fair amount of continuity:

• Francisco Liriano was the opening day starting pitcher. That's the first time the Pirates have had a pitcher start back-to-back opening games since Oliver Perez in 2005-2006 (gulp - he had a 6.18 ERA with the club over those two seasons).
• It was Starling Marte's third straight opening day start in left field, the longest streak since Jason Bay in 2005-2008.
• Second baseman Neil Walker and first baseman Pedro Alvarez have been in five straight opening days, though Alvarez was previously a third baseman. Walker's the first Pirate second baseman to appear in five opening days since Jose Lind in 1988-1992. Alvarez's move across the diamond prevents him from topping the third base streak of Aramis Ramirez (four straight, 2000-2003) and approaching Bill Madlock (six straight, 1980-1985).

Then there's Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates' (and, arguably, the National League's) best player has been the Pirates' opening day center fielder six straight seasons. He's now one away from matching Andy Van Slyke, who had seven straight opening starts in center from 1988 to 1984.

McCutchen is signed through 2017, with a club option for 2018. Assuming he stays a Pirate at least through 2018 and remains healthy, he'll have nine straight opening day starts in center for the Bucs, becoming the team's all-time leader. He'll surpass Max Carey, Bill Virdon, and Lloyd Waner, all of whom had eight. 

Only five Pirates have been in the team's opening day lineup more then ten times, and each is in the Hall of Fame:

• Willie Stargell, 17
• Roberto Clemente, 16
• Bill Mazeroski, 13
• Paul Waner, 12
• Pie Traynor, 11

Does Johnny Cueto Have the Pirates' Number?

It was, to date, the pinnacle of the Pirates' renaissance. October 1, 2013. National League Wild Card game. The Pirates' first postseason game since 1992, and the first ever at PNC Park. A raucous sellout blackout crowd. (Note to people outside of Pittsburgh: "Blackout" refers to everyone in the stands wearing black. It doesn't have anything to do with a power outage. That, unfortunately, happened to the Pirates' lineup, save Pedro Alvarez, in the Divisional Series against St. Louis.) The Bucs' Francisco Liriano vs. the Reds' Johnny Cueto. And it wasn't close. Marlon Byrd and Russell Martin hit home runs in the second inning. Cueto allowed nine baserunners and four runs before getting pulled in the fourth inning, chants of "CUE-TO" ringing throughout the ballpark. Liriano cruised and the Pirates were 6-2 victors. It was not only an embarrassing defeat for Cueto, who at one point dropped the ball while standing on the mound, it was also the last game for Reds manager Dusty Baker.

Since then, Cueto's faced the Pirates seven times, including yesterday's season opener. The results are pretty overwhelming: 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, five wins for Cueto, seven wins for Cincinnati. His two no-decisions were both games in which he left positioned to get the win (yesterday, leading 2-0 after seven; and last June 17, leading 3-2 after six) only to watch the Reds bullpen blow his lead in a game the Reds ultimately won. Has Cueto become the Pirates' kryptonite?

I don't think so, for two reasons. First, the Johnny Cueto the Pirates faced in the 2013 wild card game wasn't the typical Cueto. He started only eleven games all season that year in between two stints on the disabled list due to a strained lat muscle. Prior to the wild card game, Cueto had started only two games since the end of June, on September 16 and 23. He was still rusty, and it showed. By contrast, he's been healthy since, leading the league in innings pitched and batters faced.

Second, the Cueto the Pirates have faced since October 2013 is basically the same Cueto the rest of the league has faced. Look at this table:

ROW = Rest of world, i.e. everybody other than Pittsburgh.

Other than ERA, there's not a lot of difference, is there? He's allowed fewer walks against the Bucs, but also gotten fewer strikeouts. Otherwise, everything looks pretty much in line, except ERA. So what's going on with runs?

Well, here's another comparison:

RISP = Runners in scoring position

That pretty much tells the story. The Pirates' raw statistics--hits, walks, home runs, strikeouts--are similar to Cueto's other opponents. Their overall batting average is the same as the other hitters Cueto faces. But once they get players on base, the Bucs have been unable to bring them around to score. They're 2-for-27--two for twenty-seven!--with runners on second and/or third (with a bases-loaded walk and a run-scoring ground out added in).

Nobody hits well against Cueto, who was the runner-up to Clayton Kershaw for the Cy Young Award last year. The Pirates, overall, hit on a par with Cueto's other opponents. Once they get runners in scoring position, though, their bats turn to ice. That's why Cueto's dominated them.

The silver lining is that batting with runners in scoring position, or the lack thereof, isn't a particularly replicable skill. In 2013, the St. Louis Cardinals famously led the league in batting with RISP, at .330. The Pirates were second-to-last, at .229. But last year, the two were neck-and-neck, as the Cardinals tumbled to sixth, at .254, and the Bucs rose to seventh, at .249. That sort of variation suggests that batting with runners in scoring position includes a fair amount of luck. So while it's never easy to score against Johnny Cueto, it doesn't need to be as hard as it's been for Pittsburgh over their last seven games against the Reds hurler. It's reasonable to expect improvement in 2015.

Happy Opening Day!

Here's a fantastic heartwarming piece by the great Joe Posnanski. He calls it "A Baseball Story." It's not. It's a human potential story. Posnanski is a national treasure.

Now, on to the season. Last year I did detailed predictions for each division. Given that the season's started, and I was out of the country since mid-March, I'm not going to do that this year. But let's get some stakes in the ground:

National League East
Washington Nationals, 91-71: There are, in my mind, five locks in baseball this season. Three are in this division. This is one of them. The Nationals are, to me, clearly the best team in the division, arguably in the league.
New York Mets, 84-78: Mets fans are pessimistic about the team. Mets fans have learned their pessimism from experience. Still, even with young righthander Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, this is a...well, not excellent, but an okay team. Sure, the offense is suspect, but in 2015, just about everybody's offense is suspect.
Miami Marlins, 81-81: The Marlins are kind of a fashionable pick. I don't care for that fashion. The outfield's great, and they have some good arms, but there are too many weaknesses elsewhere for me to get excited.
Atlanta Braves, 69-93: Lock No. 2. The Braves have all but admitted they're in rebuilding mode, shedding stars (Jayson Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel) for prospects. But they won't be in last place because...
Philadelphia Phillies, 64-98: ...the Phillies are probably the worst team in baseball right now. Lock No. 3

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals, 89-73: Yes, the Cards have a great farm system, but they're also reliant on some older players (Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday) who are going to get old someday. Probably not today, though.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 85-77: Probably the best outfield in baseball, but the loss of catcher Russell Martin to free agency will be felt, and I have a hard time seeing last year's surprise hero, Josh Harrison, duplicating his performance.
Chicago Cubs, 81-81: Cool your jets, Cubs fans. Your farm system's fantastic, even after graduating a lot of guys to the majors. You got Jon Lester and Joe Maddon during the offseason. But this was a last-place, 89-loss team last year. Getting to .500 would be a tremendous improvement.
Milwaukee Brewers, 78-84: They spent most of last season in first place. I'd be surprised if they see much if it this year.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: They can't hit, and if they're out of contention at the All-Star Break, they might trade starting pitcher Johnny Cueto, an impending free agent, and then things would get really ugly.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers, 94-68: The fourth lock. They've been criticized by some for trading outfielder Matt Kemp and second baseman Dee Gordon, but the replacements (rookie Joc Pederson, former Angel Howie Kendrick) could wind up being just about as good.
San Diego Padres, 86-76: Another trendy pick, as new GM A.J. Preller remade the team. They'll be better, but the infield's awful.
San Francisco Giants, 84-78: No, it's not just because the Giants win only in even-numbered years. They lost third baseman Pablo Sandoval to free agency, outfielder Hunter Pence is on the disabled list, and there are a lot of questions in the rotation after postseason hero Madison Bumgarner.
Colorado Rockies, 78-84: DON'T SAY IT. Yes, I know, this team could be pretty good if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez can stay in the lineup together. But they can't. One or the other will get hurt. Or both. Don't get your hopes up.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 71-91: I wouldn't say they're a lock for last, but they're not a good club, either. Worst record in baseball last year, you know.

American League East
Boston Red Sox, 88-74: Viva la parity. The additions of Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, and the presumed return to health of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli, makes the team's offense formidable. The pitching...not so much. But this is no longer a killer division.
Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78: Really, you could almost draw the names of these five teams out of a hat; they're all pretty close. I really like the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.
New York Yankees, 82-80: Because the Yankees are incapable of finishing a season with a losing record.
Baltimore Orioles, 80-82: Over the past three seasons, the O's have won the second-most games in the American League. I haven't been able to figure out why. The batters don't get on base a lot and the starting rotation is unimpressive if solid. In Buck we trust, I suppose. I'm probably going to be wrong about them again.
Tampa Bay Rays, 77-85: I think the departure of GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon are the beginning of the end for one of my favorite teams. (I like small-market, low-budget teams.)

American League Central
Detroit Tigers, 88-74: They've won four divisional titles in a row. The streak will come to an end, probably soon, as the team's getting old. But I don't think this is they year.
Cleveland Indians, 84-78: Another trendy pick, and I would like nothing more than to see this small-market, low-budget team succeed. But the team's pitchers, unbelievable in the second half of the year (2.95 starter ERA, best in the league), are due for regression, and the team's defense won't help. But I'll be pulling for them, if for no other reason than radio announcer Tom Hamilton's home run calls.
Chicago White Sox, 83-79: Another greatly improved team - they lost 89 games last year - but not enough to contend, yet.
Kansas City Royals, 79-83: Yeah, I know, they came within a game of winning the World Championship. But they didn't win their division, and they kind of lucked their way to a wild card win. Over the winter, they lost their No. 1 starter and their DH. I'm not buying sustained success.
Minnesota Twins, 70-92: My fifth and final lock. I've documented my lack of affection for the Twins.

American League West
Seattle Mariners, 89-73: You can make a case that the other two top contenders in this tight division enter 2015 weaker than 2014. Not so the Mariners.
Los Angeles Angels, 86-76: They had the best record in baseball last year. But they enter the season with concerns in the rotation and at second base and overpaid slugger Josh Hamilton recovering from shoulder surgery and a drug relapse.
Oakland Athletics, 79-83: I mentioned that I don't understand how the Orioles have managed the second-most wins in the league over the past three years. I even more don't understand how the A's are No. 1, but they are. What they did this offseason strikes me as a teardown. But I've been wrong before.
Houston Astros, 79-83: Everything is going according to plan. The Astros improved by 19 games last year, and I see another nine this year. Eight or so next year, and they're talking playoffs.
Texas Rangers, 75-87: I thought they might rebound strongly from their injury-riddled 2014, but then ace pitcher Yu Darvish went down with Tommy John surgery.

Programming Notice

For reasons that aren't really important, I am going to change the primary focus of this blog to the Pittsburgh Pirates. I will still maintain an analytical bent, and I'll post occasional general interest items (with longer general analysis, I hope, published at FanGraphs). Thanks for hanging out during the transition, and sorry for the long radio silence. It ends now.